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Specifications of the study areaUrmia Lake, as the largest inland lake of Iran, is a national park and one of the largest Ramsar sites of Iran (Ramsar, 1971). The lake is formed in a natural depression within the catchment area in the northwest of Iran. The basin of the lake covers an area of 52,000 km2 and its area is about 5,700 km249. In addition, its maximum length and width are 140 and 50 km, respectively. Further, the lake catchment is a closed inland basin in which all rainwater runoff flows to the central saline lake, and evaporation from the surface of the lake is the only way out. More importantly, it is the largest saltwater lake in Iran and the second largest saltwater lake in the world.The current surface flow system to Urmia Lake consists of 10 main rivers with permanent flow potential, including Zola, Nazlu, Rozeh, Shahrchai, Baranduz, Gadar, Mahabad, Simineh, Zarrineh, and Aji. In terms of the water supply potential of Urmia Lake, Zarrineh, Simineh, Aji, and Nazlu rivers with a flow allocation of 41, 11, 10, and 6% have a key role, respectively.The rivers of this basin are originated from mountains and pass through the heights and enter the agricultural plains. The main usage in plains are for agriculture which cause the changes in natural rivers flow regime. On the other hand, the natural flow regime of the rivers should be considered as the basis for e-flow calculation. So, in the current study the obtained data from the stations situated in the upstream of the rivers and the stations before the agricultural plains are utilized to alleviate the effects of agricultural use on natural flow regime of the rivers. Also, to eliminate the effects of dam rule curve on river flow regime, stations situated in the upstream of the dams are considered as the main scale in the upstream of the dammed rivers like Zarrineh, Mahabad and Zola. Despite all the efforts made to select stations with the least human impact, the two stations related to Aji and Shahar Rivers have been affected by the structures built above them. Therefore, in order to eliminate the effects of the constructed structures at the upstream of the stations, flow naturalization methods were used only for the two stations of Venyar of Aji River and the Band Urmia station of Shahar River. There are several ways to naturalize hydrometric station data. Terrier et al.51 by studying flow naturalization methods in various researches were able to provide a comprehensive study of naturalization methods and selection criteria for each of these methods. According to their studies, the first and the most important prerequisite for stream naturalization is to identify the factors affecting the river and the quality of data in the region, which play a major role in choosing the flow naturalization method. Two factors play a major role in affecting river hydrology. The first factor is the construction of hydraulic structures along the path of rivers and the second factor is the change of land use that has occurred in the rivers basin. In the current study, the purpose of flow naturalization is to eliminate the effects of large dams built on the inlet rivers of the lake, which can affect the hydrology of the river flow. It should be noted that it is not possible to eliminate the effects of land use change due to the gradual nature of the changes, the inability to determine the exact amount and time of the changes and the lack of required data as well. Therefore, in this study, the effects of land use change at the upstream of the stations have been neglected. The most important reason that the Aji River needs to naturalize is the existence of several small dams upstream of Venyar station. To eliminate the effects of dams and flow naturalization at the upstream of this station, the spatial interpolation method introduced by Hughes and Smakhtin52 was used. In this method, Sahzab hydrometric station located at the upstream of the river was used as a base station to naturalize the flow. The next station which needs to be naturalized the flow is the Band Urmia station Shahar River. The main problem for this river has been the construction of a dam upstream of Band Urmia river station since 2004. The drainage area ratio method introduced by Hirsch53 was used to eliminate the effect of this dam on the station data. This method has been used by various researchers to naturalize river flow54,55,56 which is based on the upstream drainage area of the stations. In this method the ratio of the drainage area of the two stations is used to naturalize the flow in the affected station. For this purpose, the data of Bardehsoor station located upstream of the dam was used to naturalize the data of the Band Urmia station. So, anthropogenic effects are at the minimum level in calculations. The utilized stations to calculate the e-flow as upstream stations are illustrated in Fig. 1.Figure 1An overview of the Urmia Lake basin, the rivers, and selected gauging stations. Figure 1 was generated by ArcGIS v10.2 software50 (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., USA, URL http://www.esri.com/).Full size imageAppropriate criteria for allocating the EWR of the Urmia LakeDue to the high salinity of Urmia Lake, only a small number of invertebrates make up the living organisms of this huge water body. Saltwater shrimp or Artemia is a type of aquatic crustacean which can be found in saltwater lakes or coastal lagoons worldwide. Artemia can tolerate salinity less than 10 gl−1 up to 340 gl−1 and adapt to environmental conditions. Artemia Urmiana, the most well-known species of the Urmia Lake, is considered as the main food of migratory birds that spend part of their wintering period on the lake and surrounding wetlands. The presence of this species in the Urmia Lake was first reported by Gunter (1899), and many researchers have confirmed the existence of this bisexual creature in this lake57,58,59,60,61.One of the key factors in estimating the EWR of Urmia Lake is to create an appropriate environmental condition for its dominant species. Abbaspour and Nazari Doost39 identified the EWR of the Urmia Lake by considering the living conditions of Artemia as its dominant species. In this study, Artemia Urmaina was selected as a biological indicator, along with NaCl and elevation above mean sea level (AMSL) as the indicators of water quality and quantity, respectively. The combination of these three indicators forms the ecological basis of Urmia Lake. Therefore, salinity is considered to be equal to 240 gl−1 as the tolerable limit of the biological index. Using long-term statistics in the Urmia Lake and the relationship between quantitative and qualitative water indicators, the water level of 1274.1 m (AMSL) was chosen as the ecological level of the lake so that the balance of these three indicators remained within the allowable range. The study indicated that the calculated environmental water demand of Urmia Lake was equal to 3084 Mm3 per year provided by main rivers entering the lake. Therefore, the proposed new methods should be able to deliver this volume of water to the lake and simultaneously feed the EFR of the river. To supply this water volume, government has programs in order to mitigate the water consumption especially in agriculture. The most important program is 40 percent reduction in agricultural water consumption which is accompanied with the increase of efficiency. Also the government pursues urban wastewater treatment to retrieve some of domestic water to the lake. The mentioned programs are time consuming, however, the new methods presented in this study can be useful for managers in determining the allocation patterns and consumption management. Ordinary method of flow duration curve shifting (FDCS) in estimating e-flowSince the early 1990s, various methods have been developed based on the hydrological indices62 in order to determine the e-flow by taking into account the flow variability and adaptation to the ecological conditions of rivers. One of the intended diagrams in the study of the hydrological characteristics is the flow duration curve (FDC), which is used to assess the fluctuations and variability of water flow from an environmental point of view. Given the importance of the presence of flood currents in the restoration of the river and wetland ecosystems63,64, the FDC is one of the most practical methods to show the full range of river discharge characteristics from water shortage to flood events. This diagram also demonstrates the relationship between the amount and frequency of the flow which can be prepared for daily, annual, and monthly time intervals65. The FDCS is a method in which FDC is employed to estimate the river flow. This method was introduced by Smakhtin and Anputhas66 to evaluate the e-flow in the river system. The method, which is called FDCS, provides a hydrological regime to protect the river in the desired ecological conditions.In the previous research, most of the rivers in the Urmia Lake basin have been compatible with FDCS, and due to the lack of biological data regarding these rivers, it is always one of the top priorities among the methods of estimating the e-flow in rivers leading to the Urmia Lake67,68. It is noteworthy that the characteristics of calculation steps of the ordinary method are provided as follows.This method consists of four main steps:

1.

Assessing the existing hydrological conditions (preparing the FDC for a natural river flow regime),

2.

Selecting the appropriate environmental management class;

3.

Acquiring the environmental FDC;

4.

Generating e-flow time series.

The first step is to prepare the FDC in the desired river range using monthly flow data. In this method, FDC for the natural river flow regime is prepared by 17 fixed percentage points of occurrence probabilities (0.01, 0.1, 1, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, 99, 99.9, 99.99) where P1 = 99.99% and P17 = 0.01% represent the highest and lowest probability of occurrence, respectively. These points ensure that the entire flow range is adequately covered, as well as facilitating the continuation of the next steps.This method, which uses mean monthly flow (MMF) data, considers six environmental management classes (EMC) from A to F. The FDC of EFR (FDC-EFR) for each class in terms of EMC is determined based on the obtained natural river FDC by the MMF. The higher EMC needs more water to maintain the ecosystem. These classes are determined based on empirical relationships between the flow and ecological status of rivers, which currently have no specific criteria for identifying these limits. The selection of the appropriate class individually relies on the expert’s judgment of the river ecosystem condition.After obtaining the natural FDC, the next step is to calculate the FDC-EFR for each EMC using the lateral shifts of FDC to the left along the probabilistic axis. For EMC-A rivers, one lateral shift to the left is applied while two, three, and four lateral shifts are employed for EMC-B, EMC-C, and EMC-D rivers, respectively. It should be noted that the overall hydrological pattern of the flow will be maintained although the flow variation is lost for each shift.In the current study, global e-flow calculation (GEFC) v2.0 software69,70 has been utilized to compute the e-flow by the FDCS method. The long-term data (at least 20 years) of MMF are the required input data for this software.According to the research conducted on the rivers of the Urmia Lake basin, EMC-C is the minimum considered EMC for 10 main rivers of the lake, thus the EMC-C has been considered in this study, and all calculations for classes A, B, C have been performed accordingly.The description of new methods based on ordinary methodThe main purpose of presenting new methods is to combine the EWR of wetlands or lakes and the hydrological method of FDCS, which can be used to calculate the e-flow of rivers and meet the needs of lakes or wetlands in downstream. These methods relies on the FDCS while with the difference that the proposed method includes three fundamental changes compared to the original one.

1.

Applying monthly FDC (FDC for each month separately) instead of annual FDC,

2.

Employing daily flow data instead of MMF,

3.

Considering the downstream EWR in the amount of the lateral shift in the FDCS method.

The use of the structure of new methods lead to a dynamic process that is based on the selected EMC of the river, the amount of the natural flow, and the date of occurrence and can compute the amount of the e-flow of the river on each day of the year.River hydrology greatly varies depending on the type of the basin, the climate of the area, and the relationship between the basin and the river each exhibiting different behaviors during the months of the year. Accordingly, the proposed methods should provide sufficient comprehensiveness in estimating the e-flow by considering different flow characteristics. Due to the type and timing of precipitation in the Urmia Lake basin, the rivers are full of water from March to June and spend extremely less flows during the other times of the year. For example, Fig. 2 shows the distribution of the Nazlu River flows in the west of Urmia Lake throughout the year. According to the data, 74% of the AF crosses the river from March to June, and the highest and lowest river discharges are related to May with 29% and September and August with 2% of the AF, respectively.Figure 2Historical hydrograph at the Tapik Station, Nazlu River: (a) Daily and mean monthly distribution of flows and (b) Magnified hydrograph for a typical year (1993).Full size imageAccording to the flow distribution throughout the year, the annual FDC is an average FDC of each month of the year. However, the flow of a river during the months of the year represents significant changes. Therefore, the monthly FDC is higher than the annual FDC in the high-water months (e.g., May). Additionally, this curve is lower compared to the annual FDC in the low-water months (e.g., September). Accordingly, the use of monthly FDCs provides more details of changes in the hydrological parameters of the flow and can be a better indicator of the hydrological index of river flows.In the conventional FDCS method, the FDC is obtained using the MMF data of each station. The obtained curve represents the monthly average of river flow and does not illustrates the minimum, maximum and the effect of flow fluctuations in the estimation of e-flows (Fig. 2).In the new methods, all FDC diagrams were obtained by daily data. Both annual (EFR-Ann) and monthly (EFR-Mon) methods are separately utilized to compare the calculation of the e-flow and to choose the best method. The annual FDC is a probabilistic chart for the whole year and the monthly FDC includes 12 probability curves for each year. Due to the use of FDC in e-flow estimations, it has been attempted to perform all calculations from this diagram. Therefore, concepts related to the flow volume can be integrated with the FDCS method. Some of the applied concepts for this purpose are as follows.In the FDCS method, the FDC is defined based on 17 probabilistic percentage points. To calculate the mean AF (MAF) volume, the theorem of the mean value for a definite integral is employed in the FDC diagram. Accordingly, considering that FDC is continuous between the first and seventeenth probability points, the mean flow (Fm) is obtained from Eq. (1) as.
$$F_{m} = frac{1}{{P_{1} – P_{17} }}mathop smallint limits_{{P_{17} }}^{{p_{1} }} Fleft( p right)dp$$
(1)
Fm = Mean flow. P1, P17 = Points of FDC probability that P1 = 99.99 and P17 = 0.01.Given that the FDC consists of 17 probability points and the probability function ‘F(P)’ is unavailable for this curve as a mathematical equation, obtaining this equation for each flow curve increases the computational cost. Therefore, numerical integration methods can be used in this regard. The trapezoidal numerical solution method has been utilized for this purpose. By applying the trapezoidal method in solving Eq. (1), Eq. (2) is obtained, which is used to compute the mean flow of the FDC.$$F_{m} = frac{1}{{P_{1} – P_{17} }}mathop sum limits_{i = 1}^{17} frac{{left( {F_{i} + F_{i + 1} } right)}}{2}{*}left[ {P_{i} – P_{i + 1} } right]$$
(2)
Pi = 17 points of FDC probability that P1 = 99.99% and P17 = 0.01%. Fi = The amount of the river flow with the probability of the occurrence of Pi.To calculate the AF volume by monthly and annual FDCs, Eq. (3) can be applied for the AF volume in the EFR-Ann method, as well as employing Eqs. (4) and (5) for the monthly and AF volume in the EFR-Mon method, respectively.$${text{V}}_{{AF_{Ann} }} = frac{365*24*3600}{{P_{1} – P_{17} }}mathop sum limits_{i = 1}^{17} frac{{left( {F_{i} + F_{i + 1} } right)}}{2}{*}left[ {P_{i} – P_{i + 1} } right]$$
(3)
$${text{V}}_{Monthly } = frac{{D_{k} *24*3600}}{{P_{1} – P_{17} }}mathop sum limits_{i = 1}^{17} frac{{left( {F_{i} + F_{i + 1} } right)}}{2}{*}left[ {P_{i} – P_{i + 1} } right]$$
(4)
$${text{V}}_{{AF_{Mon} }} = mathop sum limits_{k = 1}^{12} left[ {{text{V}}_{Monthly } } right]_{k}$$
(5)

VAFAnn = AF volume using annual FDC. VMonthly = Monthly flow volume. VAFMon = AF volume using monthly FDC. Dk = Number of the days of the kth month. k = Number of each month.The required e-flow by wetlands and lakes must have two basic characteristics. The volume of EWR for maintaining their ecological level must be determined and provided by the studies of their ecosystems. In addition, fluctuations must be maintained in water levels in the lake due to hydrological conditions under the basins of the lake supplying rivers given the fact that maintaining the hydrological conditions of the river is one of the major goals of the FDCS method in estimating the e-flow of the river. On the other hand, the rehabilitation of the wetland or lake downstream of rivers requires a certain amount of water, and the new methods must be applied to combine these two goals. In this regard, the AF volume, which can be transferred to the lake (VL Mon or Ann) by these rivers, is calculated by taking into account the natural flow conditions of the rivers in the basin and without considering the consumptions,.$${text{V}}_{{L_{Ann} }} { } = mathop sum limits_{j = 1}^{{text{n}}} left[ {{text{V}}_{{AF_{Ann} }} } right]_{j}$$
(6)
$${text{V}}_{{L _{Mon} }} = mathop sum limits_{j = 1}^{{text{n}}} left[ {{text{V}}_{{AF_{Mon} }} } right]_{j}$$
(7)

n = Number of input rivers to the lake. VLAnn = AF volume, which can be transferred to the lake using annual FDC. VLMon = AF volume, which can be transferred to the lake using monthly FDC.The ratio of the EWR of the lake or wetland to the average annual volume of the basin should be determined at this stage.$$b = frac{{{text{V}}_{EWR} }}{{{text{V}}_{{L_{Ann} }} or {text{V}}_{{L _{Mon} }} }}$$
(8)
b = The ratio of the EWR of the lake or wetland to the average annual volume of the basin. VEWR = Volume of environmental water requirement of the lake or wetland.In the conventional FDCS method, which is determined using GEFC v2.0 software70 (It is then called the GEFC method), depending on the type of the river EMC, the allocation curve is obtained with one or more shifts of the FDC. Each EMC includes a certain ratio of the MAF volume of the river, and changing the flow EMC facilitates changing the flow volume. It is impossible to supply a specific and predetermined downstream water volume of the river. Therefore, in the new methods, a new process must be used to calculate the amount of the FDC shift in order to provide a certain volume of water in the shifting of the FDC. First, a new definition of the EMC was developed for the new methods. In this definition, instead of using a specific shift of the FDC, the range between the two classes was characterized as an EMC. For example, the region between the curve of EMC-A and the natural flow and the region between the EMC-A and EMC-B curves are defined as EMC-A and EMC-B areas, respectively. These regions can be defined for all EMCs (Fig. 3).Figure 3Comparison of the EFR allocated to each of the environmental management classes from this new approach (on the left) with the conventional FDCS methods (on the right).Full size imageBased on the new definition of the range of EMC, the FDC can be shifted as much as needed according to the volume of downstream EWR. The EWR can be defined as the annual percentage river flow respecting the shift of EMCs or a percentage between two specific classes. If the required flow volume is between two specific classes, Eq. (9) can be used to shift the FDC. In fact, with the new definition, any required probable shift can be applied to the FDC ِdiagram to reach a certain volume. In this case, new probable points are determined using Eq. (9), followed by performing the FDC shift similar to the FDCS method in the next step.$$P_{{i_{new} }} = P_{i} + a{*}left( {P_{i – 1} – P_{i} } right)quad i = t, ldots ,16$$
(9)
Pinew = New shifted probability point. Pi = 17 points of FDC probability that P1 = 99.99% and P17 = 0.01%. a = Coefficient of shift which defined between 0 and 1. t = Number of shifts performed on the FDC diagram numbered 1–6 for the areas of EMC A, B, C, D, E, F, respectively.The concept of numerical integration and Eqs. (9) and (3) were utilized to calculate the annual volume of different EMCs for each river, and Eqs. (10) and (12) were obtained for the new annual and monthly methods, respectively.$$begin{aligned} & {text{V}}_{{AF class_{t} Ann }} = frac{1}{{P_{1} – left[ {P_{17} + a*left( {P_{16} – P_{17} } right)} right]}} \ & quad quad quad quad quad *left[ {F_{1} *left[ {P_{1} – left[ {P_{t + 1} + a*left( {P_{t} – P_{t + 1} } right)} right]} right] + mathop sum limits_{{i = {text{t}} + 1}}^{16} frac{{left( {F_{i – t} + F_{i – t + 1} } right)}}{2}{*}left[ {P_{i} – P_{i + 1} + a{*}left( {P_{i – 1} – 2P_{i} + P_{i + 1} } right)} right]} right]*365*24*3600 \ end{aligned}$$
(10)
$$begin{aligned}&{text{V}}_{{ class_{t} Mon }} = frac{{D_{k} *24*3600}}{{P_{1} – left[ {P_{17} + a*left( {P_{16} – P_{17} } right)} right]}} \ & quad quad quad quad quad *left[ {F_{1} *left[ {P_{1} – left[ {P_{t + 1} + a*left( {P_{t} – P_{t + 1} } right)} right]} right] + mathop sum limits_{{i = {text{t}} + 1}}^{16} frac{{left( {F_{i – t} + F_{i – t + 1} } right)}}{2}{*}left[ {P_{i} – P_{i + 1} + a{*}left( {P_{i – 1} – 2P_{i} + P_{i + 1} } right)} right]} right] end{aligned}$$
(11)
$${text{V}}_{{AF class_{t} Mon}} = mathop sum limits_{K = 1}^{12} left[ {{text{V}}_{{ class_{t} Mon}} } right]_{k}$$
(12)

VAF classt Ann = AF volume for the related class of selected t for annual method. Vclasst Mon = Monthly flow volume for the related class of selected t for monthly method. VAF classt Mon = AF volume for the related class of selected t for monthly method.where t is the number of shifts performed on the FDC diagram numbered 1–6 for the areas of EMC A, B, C, D, E, F, respectively. To find the exact value of a in these equations, the scope of the EMC must be determined based on the required volume by downstream. Therefore, assuming a = 0 in these equations, the AF volume at the boundary of each class is obtained for both EFR-Mon (Eq. (10)) and EFR-Ann (Eq. (12)) methods. The nearest calculated annual volume is selected as the appropriate EMC which is smaller than the volume of downstream. Further, the corresponding t-class is used to solve the equations, representing the range of the selected EMC.At this stage, the value of the obtained ‘a’ from the FDC shift diagram equals the required volume of downstream. For this purpose, Eqs. (13) and (14) for the EFR-Ann and EFR-Mon methods are obtained from Eqs. (10) and (12), respectively.$$b{text{*V}}_{{AF_{Ann} }} = V_{{AF class_{t } Ann }}$$
(13)
$$b{text{*V}}_{{AF_{Mon} }} = V_{{AF class_{t} Mon }}$$
(14)

By solving Eqs. (13) and (14), the obtained value of a represents the annual and monthly methods, and the obtained shifted FDC stands for the required annual volume downstream.After determining the appropriate FDC, it is used to calculate the daily e-flow needs of the river using the spatial interpolation algorithm52, which is also employed in the FDCS method. To this end, the probability of the river flow occurrence from the annual or monthly FDCs (according to the selected method) is determined and then the required river flow in the specified probability of occurrence is obtained using the e-flow curve.The range of variability approach (RVA)71,72 is a complex method based on the use of e-flow for achieving the goals of river ecosystem management. This method is applied to compare the methods and select the best one based on the least hydrological change compared to the natural flow of the river. Furthermore, it is based on the importance of the hydrological feature impact of the river on the life, biodiversity of native aquatic species, and the natural ecosystem of the river and aims to provide complete statistical characteristics of the flow regime.In the RVA method, the indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) parameters related to the natural river flow are considered as a basis, and changes in the IHA parameters of different EMCs are evaluated accordingly. Richter et al.72 suggested that the distribution of the annual values of IHA parameters for maintaining river environmental conditions must be kept as close as possible to natural flow condition parameters. In several studies, this method was used to investigate changes in the hydrological parameters of a river over time37.Moreover, the total data related to the natural flow of the river for each IHA parameter are classified into three categories in the RVA method. In this study, this classification is based on Default software, and the 17% distance from the median is introduced as the boundary of the classes. By this definition, three classes of the same size are created, in which the middle category is between 34 and 67, and the lower and higher ranges are called the lowest and highest categories, respectively.Using the current change factor obtained from Eq. (15), the RVA method can quantify the change amount in the values of the 33 IHA parameters compared to the natural flow conditions.$$HA = left( {O_{f} – E_{f} } right)/E_{f}$$
(15)
HA = Hydrological alteration index. Of = Number of flows occurring within a certain category of the IHA parameter under changed flow conditions. Ef = Number of flows occurring in the same category specified by the parameter under natural flow conditions.In this case, for each IHA parameter, three HA factors are obtained, which can be separately examined for river flows in these three categories. In the analysis of parameters, the positive HA means that the number of occurrences of the phenomenon has increased in a certain IHA category compared to the natural conditions of the river flow. Negative values imply a decrease in the number of occurrences of the same phenomenon. To compare the number of changes in IHA parameters, the HA factor of the RVA method and IHA software (Version 7.1)73 was employed to allocate e-flows in different methods. The obtained results using RVA method calculates and represents HA of each 33 parameters. However, making decision to choose the best method, all parameters need to be assessed and presented as a total index. Due to calculate total HA index based on studies of Xue et al.74 Eq. (16) can be used.$$HA_{o} = sqrt {frac{{mathop sum nolimits_{i = 1}^{33} HA_{i}^{2} }}{33}} *100$$
(16)
HAo = Total hydrological alteration index. HAi = Hydrological alteration of each of 33 parameters.Determination of EFR for different EMCs for all methodsInitially, the MMF for each available statistical month was obtained by daily data from stations located in the upstream of the basin rivers of Urmia Lake (Fig. 1). The FDC for the natural flow and various EMCs were obtained using MMF values and GEFC software. Next, to perform the calculations in the EFR-Ann method, the FDC of a natural flow and different EMCs during the year were plotted by daily data. Finally, for the EFR-Mon method, the daily data of each month of the year were examined and the FDC of the natural flow and EMCs were separately plotted for each month.Based on the presented method in this research, Fig. 4 illustrates a step-by-step diagram for determining the e-flows of rivers in the Urmia Lake basin.Figure 4Step-by-step flowchart for determining the environmental flows of rivers in the Urmia Lake basin.Full size image More

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