Ecology

Wheat production and yield vis-à-vis climate trendsWheat is currently grown in all six continents except Antarctica. The leading producers include China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Kazakhstan (RUK), India, USA, France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1). The total grain production of these twelve countries is estimated at 600 megatons (2019 data), which accounts for over 78% of the global wheat production. The top three producers are China with 133.6 megatons per year (Mt y−1), RUK with 114.1 Mt y−1, and India with 103.6 Mt y−1. RUK contains the largest harvested area of 45.8 million hectares, followed by India with 29.3 million hectares and China with 23.7 million hectares (Fig. 1A). Despite a relatively small harvested area of 10.1 million hectares (only 22% of RUK’s harvested area), the United Kingdom, France, and Germany account for the world’s highest yields per hectare, with 8.93 tons ha−1, 7.74 tons ha−1, and 7.40 tons ha−1, respectively (compared with the world’s average yield of only 3.2 tons ha−1), accounting for a total yearly production of 79.9 Mt y−1.Figure 1Global wheat area and trends in wheat yield and climate in top-twelve global wheat producers (1961–2019). (A) Worldwide wheat cropping area (%)29, total harvested area (106 hectares in 2019), and wheat production (megatons for 2019) of the top 12 global wheat producers (China, RUK—Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, India, USA—hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom) (Map was generated in Python 3.8.5; http://www.python.org). (B) Changes in wheat yield (tons per hectare) and (C) climate—mean daily temperature (red dashed line; °C) and the seasonal water balance represented as potential evaporation minus precipitation (blue line; PET—P in millimeters of H2O). A positive trend in PET-P indicates an increase in water deficit. The seasonal atmospheric [CO2] in μmol CO2 per mol−1 air is also shown in the insert of C (black line). Temperature, PET-P, and [CO2] shown in C are averaged values over the wheat-growing period and the shared area of the wheat-growing areas of the top 12 global wheat producers. Decadal trends in temperature (red) and PET-P (blue) as well as the significance levels of these trends are presented in C.Full size imageWhile all these twelve major wheat producers saw an increase in yield during the last six decades (Fig. 1B), China displayed the most noteworthy increase with a nearly sevenfold higher yield in 2019 than in 1961 and a mean total increase of 5.19 tons ha−1 for the period of 1961–2019. Germany, the UK, and France reported comparable yield increases of 5.20 tons ha−1, 5.19 tons ha−1, and 4.81 tons ha−1, respectively, during this period, suggesting an approximately 1.6-fold improvement since 1961 (Fig. 1B). Australia, RUK, and Turkey reported the lowest gains with only 0.87 tons ha−1, 1.26 tons ha−1, and 1.71 tons ha−1, respectively, representing improvements of 67%, 150%, and 175% in yield per hectare since 1961.Yield increase occurred despite the steep rise in temperature (nearly 1.2 °C) in the twelve countries during the last six decades (Fig. 1C). Water deficit—calculated as the difference between potential evaporative demand and precipitation (PET—P; mm H2O y−1)—also increased by an average of (sim) 29 mm of H2O for the same period. Increases in yield since the early 1960s were likely due to breeding and agrotechnological advances, improved management, and a steep rise in atmospheric [CO2] of (sim) 98 μmol mol−1, from 315.9 μmol mol−1 in 1961 to 413.4 μmol mol−1 in 2019 (insert in Fig. 1C).Unraveling the impacts of climate and [CO2] on yieldBased on previous studies30,31, we used a log-linear model to quantify the impact of [CO2] and daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean (Tmean) temperatures, as well as seasonal water deficit (PET-P), and rainfall distribution on wheat yield. Climate variables were obtained from the TerraClimate data set32, while monthly records of [CO2] from the Mauna Loa station were used to model the effects of CO2 (see “Methods”). To quantify wheat yield as a function of climate variables and [CO2], we included all 12 countries in the regression analysis. Supplementary Table 2 presents summary statistics of all variables, while Supplementary Fig. 1 depicts trends in Tmean and PET-P per country.Since climate variables tend to be correlated over time (Supplementary Table 3), controlling for all of these variables in the model facilitates the estimation of their distinct effect on yield. We used country-specific trends to distinguish changes in wheat yield related to climate and [CO2] from those attributed to agrotechnological advancements, changes in country-specific policies, and other local-changing factors (e.g., economic and population growth; more information on how this was done can be found in “Methods”). We also included country-specific effects across all models to account for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity at the country level, such as geographical properties, edaphic characteristics, and other local-specific features (see “Methods”).Table 1 reports the estimated regression coefficients of four models, (1) using only temperature variables (T), (2) temperature and water-related (i.e., seasonal rainfall distribution and water deficit as PET-P) variables (T + W), (3) including [CO2] (T + W + C), and (4) the interaction between [CO2] and climate variables (T + W + C + interactions).Table 1 Effects of climate variables and [CO2] on log wheat yields of the world’s major wheat producers.Full size tableAmong the temperature measures, only Tmean had a consistently significant effect on yield (p  More

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Literature studyLiterature considering the effect of pasture degradation on SOC, N, and clay content, as well as bulk density (BD), was assembled by searching (i) Web of Science V.5.22.1, (ii) ScienceDirect (Elsevier B.V.) (iii) Google Scholar, and (iv) the China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI). Search terms were “degradation gradient”, “degradation stages”, “alpine meadow”, “Tibetan Plateau”, “soil”, “soil organic carbon”, and “soil organic matter” in different combinations. The criteria for including a study in the analysis were: (i) a clear and comprehensible classification of degradation stages was presented, (ii) data on SOC, N, and/or BD were reported, (iii) a non-degraded pasture site was included as a reference to enable an effect size analysis and the calculation of SOC and N losses, (iv) sampling depths and study location were clearly presented. (v) Studies were only considered that took samples in 10 cm depth intervals, to maintain comparability to the analyses from our own study site. The degradation stages in the literature studies were regrouped into the six successive stages (S0–S5) according to the respective degradation descriptions. In total, we compiled the results of 49 publications published between 2002 and 2020.When SOM content was presented, this was converted to SOC content using a conversion factor of 2.032. SOC and N stocks were calculated using the following equation:$${{{{{rm{Elemental; stock}}}}}}=100* {{{{{rm{content}}}}}}* {{{{{rm{BD}}}}}}* {{{{{rm{depth}}}}}}$$
(1)
where elemental stock is SOC or N stock [kg ha−1]; content is SOC or N content [g kg−1]; BD is soil bulk density [g cm−3] and depth is the soil sampling depth [cm].The effect sizes of individual variables (i.e., SOC and N stocks as well as BD) were quantified as follows:$${{{{{rm{ES}}}}}}=,frac{(D-R)}{R* 100 % }$$
(2)
where ES is the effect size in %, D is the value of the corresponding variable in the relevant degradation stage and R is the value of each variable in the non-degraded stage (reference site). When ES is positive, zero, or negative, this indicates an increase, no change, or decrease, respectively, of the parameter compared to the non-degraded stage.Experimental design of the field studyLarge areas in the study region are impacted by grassland degradation. In total, 45% of the surface area of the Kobresia pasture ecosystem on the TP is already degraded2. The experiment was designed to differentiate and quantify SOC losses by erosion vs. net decomposition and identify underlying shifts in microbial community composition and link these to changes in key microbial functions in the soil C cycle. We categorized the range of Kobresia root-mat degradation from non-degraded to bare soils into six successive degradation stages (S0–S5). Stage S0 represented non-degraded root mats, while stages S1–S4 represented increasing degrees of surface cracks, and bare soil patches without root mats defined stage S5 (Supplementary Fig. 1). All six degradation stages were selected within an area of about 4 ha to ensure equal environmental conditions and each stage was sampled in four field replicates. However, the studied degradation patterns are common for the entire Kobresia ecosystem (Supplementary Fig. 1).Site descriptionThe field study was conducted near Nagqu (Tibet, China) in the late summer 2013 and 2015. The study site of about 4 ha (NW: 31.274748°N, 92.108963°E; NE: 31.274995°N, 92.111482°E; SW: 31.273488°N, 92.108906°E; SE: 31.273421°N, 92.112025°E) was located on gentle slopes (2–5%) at 4,484 m a.s.l. in the core area of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem according to Miehe et al.8. The vegetation consists mainly of K. pygmaea, which covers up to 61% of the surface. Other grasses, sedges, or dwarf rosette plants (Carex ivanoviae, Carex spp., Festuca spp., Kobresia pusilla, Poa spp., Stipa purpurea, Trisetum spp.) rarely cover more than 40%. The growing season is strongly restricted by temperature and water availability. At most, it lasts from mid-May to mid-September, but varies strongly depending on the onset and duration of the summer monsoon. Mean annual precipitation is 431 mm, with roughly 80% falling as summer rains. The mean annual temperature is −1.2 °C, while the mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (July) is +9.0 °C2.A characteristic feature of Kobresia pastures is their very compact root mats, with an average thickness of 15 cm at the study site. These consist mainly of living and dead K. pygmaea roots and rhizomes, leaf bases, large amounts of plant residue, and mineral particles. Intact soil is a Stagnic Eutric Cambisol (Humic), developed on a loess layer overlying glacial sediments and containing 50% sand, 33% silt, and 17% clay in the topsoil (0–25 cm). The topsoil is free of carbonates and is of neutral pH (pH in H2O: 6.8)5. Total soil depth was on average 35 cm.The site is used as a winter pasture for yaks, sheep, and goats from January to April. Besides livestock, large numbers of plateau pikas (Ochotona) are found on the sites. These animals have a considerable impact on the plant cover through their burrowing activity, in particular the soil thrown out of their burrows, which can cover and destroy the Kobresia turf.Sampling designThe vertical and horizontal extent of the surface cracks was measured for each plot (Supplementary Table 2). Vegetation cover was measured and the aboveground biomass was collected in the cracks (Supplementary Table 2). In general, intact Kobresia turf (S0) provided high resistance to penetration as measured by a penetrologger (Eijkelkamp Soil and Water, Giesbeek, NL) in 1 cm increments and four replicates per plot.Soil sampling was conducted using soil pits (30 cm length × 30 cm width × 40 cm depth). Horizons were classified and then soil and roots were sampled for each horizon directly below the cracks. Bulk density and root biomass were determined in undisturbed soil samples, using soil cores (10 cm height and 10 cm diameter). Living roots were separated from dead roots and root debris by their bright color and soft texture using tweezers under magnification, and the roots were subsequently washed with distilled water to remove the remaining soil. Because over 95% of the roots occurred in the upper 25 cm5, we did not sample for root biomass below this depth.Additional soil samples were taken from each horizon for further analysis. Microbial community and functional characterization were performed on samples from the same pits but with a fixed depth classification (0–5 cm, 5–15 cm, 15–35 cm) to reduce the number of samples.Plant and soil analysesSoil and roots were separated by sieving (2 mm) and the roots subsequently washed with distilled water. Bulk density and root density were determined by dividing the dry soil mass (dried at 105 °C for 24 h) and the dry root biomass (60 °C) by the volume of the sampling core. To reflect the root biomass, root density was expressed per soil volume (mg cm−3). Soil and root samples were milled for subsequent analysis.Elemental concentrations and SOC characteristicsTotal SOC and total N contents and stable isotope signatures (δ13C and δ15N) were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer (Delta plus, Conflo III, Thermo Electron Cooperation, Bremen, Germany) coupled to an elemental analyzer (NA 1500, Fisons Instruments, Milano, Italy). Measurements were conducted at the Centre for Stable Isotope Research and Analysis (KOSI) of the University of Göttingen. The δ13C and δ15N values were calculated by relating the isotope ratio of each sample (Rsample = 13C/12C or 15N/14N) to the international standards (Pee Dee Belemnite 13C/12C ratio for δ13C; the atmospheric 15N/14N composition for δ15N).Soil pH of air-dried soil was measured potentiometrically at a ratio (v/v) of 1.0:2.5 in distilled water.Lignin phenols were depolymerized using the CuO oxidation method25 and analyzed with a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC–MS) system (GC 7820 A, MS 5977B, Agilent Technologies, Waldbronn, Germany). Vanillyl and syringyl units were calculated from the corresponding aldehydes, ketones, and carboxylic acids. Cinnamyl units were derived from the sum of p-coumaric acid and ferulic acid. The sum of the three structural units (VSC = V + S + C) was considered to reflect the lignin phenol content in a sample.DNA extraction and PCRSamples were directly frozen on site at −20 °C and transported to Germany for analysis of microbial community structure. Total DNA was extracted from the soil samples with the PowerSoil DNA isolation kit (MoBio Laboratories Inc., Carlsbad, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer’s instructions, and DNA concentration was determined using a NanoDrop 1000 spectrophotometer (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Wilmington, DE, USA). The extracted DNA was amplified with forward and reverse primer sets suitable for either t-RFLP (fluorescence marked, FAM) or Illumina MiSeq sequencing (Illumina Inc., San Diego, USA): V3 (5’-CCT ACG GGN GGC WGC AG-3’) and V4 (5’-GAC TAC HVG GGT ATC TAA TCC-3’) primers were used for bacterial 16 S rRNA genes whereas ITS1 (5’-CTT GGT CAT TTA GAG GAA GTA A-3’), ITS1-F_KYO1 (5’-CTH GGT CAT TTA GAG GAA STA A-3’), ITS2 (5’-GCT GCG TTC TTC ATC GAT GC-3’) and ITS4 (5’-TCC TCC GCT TAT TGA TAT GC-3’) were used for fungi33,34. Primers for Illumina MiSeq sequencing included adaptor sequences (forward: 5’-TCG TCG GCA GCG TCA GAT GTG TAT AAG AGA CAG-3’; reverse: 5’-GTC TCG TGG GCT CGG AGA TGT GTA TAA GAG ACA G-3’)33. PCR was performed with the Phusion High-Fidelity PCR kit (New England Biolabs Inc., Ipswich, MA, USA) creating a 50 µl master mix with 28.8 µl H2Omolec, 2.5 µl DMSO, 10 µl Phusion GC buffer, 1 µl of forward and reverse primer, 0.2 µl MgCl2, 1 µl dNTPs, 0.5 µl Phusion HF DNA Polymerase, and 5 µl template DNA. PCR temperatures started with initial denaturation at 98 °C for 1 min, followed by denaturation (98 °C, 45 s), annealing (48/60 °C, 45 s), and extension (72 °C, 30 s). These steps were repeated 25 times, finalized again with a final extension (72 °C, 5 min), and cooling to 10 °C. Agarose gel electrophoresis was used to assess the success of the PCR and the amount of amplified DNA (0.8% gel:1.0 g Rotigarose, 5 µl Roti-Safe Gelstain, Carl Roth GmbH & Co. KG, Karlsruhe, Germany; and 100 ml 1× TAE-buffer). PCR product was purified after initial PCR and restriction digestion (t-RFLP) with either NucleoMag 96 PCR (16 S rRNA gene amplicons, Macherey-Nagel GmbH & Co. KG, Düren, Germany) or a modified clean-up protocol after Moreau (t-RFLP)35: 3× the volume of the reaction solution as 100% ethanol and ¼x vol. 125 mM EDTA was added and mixed by inversion or vortex. After incubation at room temperature for 15 min, the product was centrifuged at 25,000 × g for 30 min at 4 °C. Afterwards the supernatant was removed, and the inverted 96-well plate was centrifuged shortly for 2 min. Seventy microliters ethanol (70%) were added and centrifuged at 25,000 × g for 30 min at 4 °C. Again, the supernatant was removed, and the pallet was dried at room temperature for 30 min. Finally, the ethanol-free pallet was resuspended in H2Omolec.T-RFLP fingerprintingThe purified fluorescence-labeled PCR products were digested with three different restriction enzymes (MspI and BstUI, HaeIII) according to the manufacturer’s guidelines (New England Biolabs Inc., Ipswich, MA, USA) with a 20 µl master mix: 16.75 µl H2Omolec, 2 µl CutSmart buffer, 0.25 or 0.5 µl restriction enzyme, and 1 µl PCR product for 15 min at 37 °C (MspI) and 60 °C (BstUI, HaeIII), respectively. The digested PCR product was purified a second time35, dissolved in Super-DI Formamide (MCLAB, San Francisco, CA, USA) and, along with Red DNA size standard (MCLAB, San Francisco, USA), analyzed in an ABI Prism 3130 Genetic Analyzer (Applied Biosystems, Carlsbad, CA, USA). Terminal restriction fragments shorter than 50 bp and longer than 800 bp were removed from the t-RFLP fingerprints.16 S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing and sequence processingThe 16 S rRNA gene and ITS paired-end raw reads for the bacterial and fungal community analyses were deposited in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Sequence Read Archive (SRA) and can be found under the BioProject accession number PRJNA626504. This BioProject contains 70 samples and 139 SRA experiments (SRR11570615–SRR11570753) which were processed using CASAVA software (Illumina, San Diego, CA, USA) for demultiplexing of MiSeq raw sequences (2 × 300 bp, MiSeq Reagent Kit v3).Paired-end sequences were quality-filtered with fastp (version 0.19.4)36 using default settings with the addition of an increased per base phred score of 20, base-pair corrections by overlap (-c), as well as 5′- and 3′-end read trimming with a sliding window of 4, a mean quality of 20 and minimum sequence size of 50 bp. Paired-end sequences were merged using PEAR v0.9.1137 with default parameters. Subsequently, unclipped reverse and forward primer sequences were removed with cutadapt v1.1838 with default settings. Sequences were then processed using VSEARCH (v2.9.1)39. This included sorting and size-filtering (—sortbylength,—minseqlength) of the paired reads to ≥300 bp for bacteria and ≥140 bp for ITS1, dereplication (—derep_fulllength). Dereplicated sequences were denoised with UNOISE340 using default settings (—cluster_unoise—minsize 8) and chimeras were removed (—uchime3_denovo). An additional reference-based chimera removal was performed (—uchime_ref) against the SILVA41 SSU NR database (v132) and UNITE42 database (v7.2) resulting in the final set of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs)43. Quality-filtered and merged reads were mapped to ASVs (—usearch_global–id 0.97). Classification of ASVs was performed with BLAST 2.7.1+ against the SILVA SSU NR (v132) and UNITE (v7.2) database with an identity of at least 90%. The ITS sequences contained unidentified fungal ASVs after UNITE classification, these sequences were checked (blastn)44 against the “nt” database (Nov 2018) to remove non-fungal ASVs and only as fungi classified reads were kept. Sample comparisons were performed at the same surveying effort, utilizing the lowest number of sequences by random selection (total 15,800 bacteria, 20,500 fungi). Species richness, alpha and beta diversity estimates, and rarefaction curves were determined using the QIIME 1.9.145 script alpha_rarefaction.py.The final ASV tables were used to compute heatmaps showing the effect of degradation on the community using R (Version 3.6.1, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and R packages “gplots”, “vegan”, “permute” and “RColorBrewer”. Fungal community functions were obtained from the FunGuild database46. Plant mycorrhizal association types were compiled from the literature38,39,40,41,47,48,49,50. If no direct species match was available, the mycorrhizal association was assumed to remain constant within the same genus.Enzyme activityEnzyme activity was measured to characterize the functional activity of the soil microorganisms. The following extracellular enzymes, involved in C, N, and P transformations, were considered: two hydrolases (β-glucosidase and xylanase), phenoloxidase, urease, and alkaline phosphatase. Enzyme activities were measured directly at the sampling site according to protocols after Schinner et al.51. Beta-glucosidase was incubated with saligenin for 3 h at 37 °C, xylanase with glucose for 24 h at 50 °C, phenoloxidase with L-3,4-dihydroxy phenylalanine (DOPA) for 1 h at 25 °C, urease with urea for 2 h at 37 °C and alkaline phosphatase on P-nitrophenyl phosphate for 1 h at 37 °C. Reaction products were measured photometrically at recommended wavelengths (578, 690, 475, 660, and 400 nm, respectively).SOC stocks and SOC lossThe SOC stocks (in kg C m−2) for the upper 30 cm were determined by multiplying the SOC content (g C kg−1) by the BD (g cm−3) and the thickness of the soil horizons (m). SOC losses (%) were calculated for each degradation stage and horizon and were related to the mean C stock of the reference stage (S0). The erosion-induced SOC loss of the upper horizon was estimated by considering the topsoil removal (extent of vertical soil cracks) of all degraded soil profiles (S1–S5) and the SOC content and BD of the reference (S0). To calculate the mineralization-derived SOC loss, we accounted for the effects of SOC and root mineralization on both SOC content and BD. Thus, we used the SOC content and BD from each degradation stage (S1–S5) and multiplied it by the mean thickness of each horizon (down to 30 cm) from the reference site (S0). The disentanglement of erosion-derived SOC loss from mineralization-derived SOC loss was based on explicit assumptions that (i) erosion-derived SOC losses are mainly associated with losses from the topsoil, and (ii) the decreasing SOC contents in the erosion-unaffected horizons were mainly driven by mineralization and decreasing root C input.Statistical analysesStatistical analyses were performed using PASW Statistics (IBM SPSS Statistics) and R software (Version 3.6.1). Soil and plant characteristics are presented as means and standard errors (means ± SE). The significance of treatment effects (S0–S5) and depth was tested by one-way ANOVA at p  More

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Study siteWe conducted this research at the Uluwatu temple site in Bali, Indonesia. Uluwatu is located on the Island’s southern coast, in the Badung Regency. The temple at Uluwatu is a Pura Luhur, which is a significant temple for Balinese Hindus across the island and is therefore visited regularly for significant regional, community, family, and household rituals by Balinese people from different regions throughout the year18. During the period of data collection hundreds of tourists also visit the Uluwatu temple each day. The temple sits on top of a promontory cliff edge, with walking paths in front of it that continue in loops to the North and South. These looping pathways surround scrub forests, which the macaques frequently inhabit but the humans rarely enter.In 2017–2018 there were five macaque groups at Uluwatu, which ranged throughout the temple complex area, and beyond. All groups are provisioned daily with a mixed diet of corn, cucumbers, and bananas by temple staff members. The two groups included in this research are the Celagi and Riting groups. We selected these groups because they previously exhibited significant differences in robbing frequencies whereby Riting was observed exhibiting robbing and bartering more frequently than Celagi1. Furthermore, both groups include the same highly trafficked tourist areas in their overlapping home ranges relative to the other groups at Uluwatu, theoretically minimizing between group differences in the contexts of human interaction1,19.Data collectionJVP collected data from May, 2017 to March, 2018 totaling 197 focal observation hours on all 13 subadult males in Celagi and Riting that were identified in May–June 2017. Subadult male long-tailed macaques exhibit characteristic patterns of incomplete canine eruption, sex organ development, and body size growth, which achieves a maximum of 80% of total adult size18. Mean sampling effort per individual was 15.2 hours (h), with a range of 1.75 h, totaling 102.75 h for Riting and 94.75 h for Celagi. The data collection protocol consisted of focal-animal sampling and instantaneous scan sampling20 on all six subadult males in the Celagi group, and all seven subadult males in the Riting group. Focal follows were 15 minutes in length. Sampling effort per individual is presented in Table 1. A random number generator determined the order of focal follows each morning. In the event a target focal animal could not be located within 10 minutes of locating the group, the next in line was located and observed. Data presented here come from focal animal sampling records of state and event behaviors. Relevant event behaviors consist of agonistic gestures used for calculating dominance relationships, including the target, or interaction partner, of all communicative event behaviors and the time of its occurrence. All changes in the focal animal’s state behavior were noted, recording the time of the change to the minute.Table 1 Focal Subadult male long-tailed macaques in Celagi and Riting at Uluwatu, Bali, Indonesia.Full size tableDuring focal samples we recorded robbing and bartering as a sequence of mixed event and state behaviors. We scored both the robbery and exchange phases as event behaviors, and the interim phase of item possession as a state behavior. We record a robbery as successful if the focal animal took an object from a human and established control of the object with their hands or teeth, and as unsuccessful if the focal animal touched the object but was not able to establish control of it. For each successful robbery we recorded the object taken. Unsuccessful robberies end the sequence, whereas successful robberies are typically followed by various forms of manipulating the object.The robbing and bartering sequence ends with one of several event behavior exchange outcomes: (1) “Successful exchanges” consist of the focal animal receiving a food reward from a human and releasing the stolen object; (2) “forced exchanges” are when a human takes the object back without a bartering event; (3) “dropped objects” describe when the macaque loses control of the object while carrying it or otherwise locomoting, and is akin to an “accidental drop”; (4) “no exchange” includes instances of the macaque releasing the object for no reward after manipulating it; and (5) “expired observation” consists of instances in which the final result of the robbing and bartering event was unobserved in the sample period (i.e., the sample period ended while the macaque still had possession of the object). A 6th exchange outcome is “rejected exchange,” which occurs when the focal animal does not drop the stolen object after being offered, or in some cases even accepting, a food reward. The “rejected exchange” outcome is unique in that it does not end the robbing and bartering sequence because a human may have one or more exchange attempts rejected before eventually facilitating a successful exchange, or before one of the other outcomes (2–5) occurs. For each successful exchange we recorded the food item the macaques received. Food items are grouped into four categories: fruits, peanuts, eggs, and human snacks. Snacks include packaged and processed food items such as candy or chips.Data analysisWe grouped the broad range of stolen items into classes of general types. “Eyewear” combines eyeglasses and sunglasses, while “footwear” combines sandals and shoes. “Ornaments” includes objects attached to and/or hanging from backpacks, such as keychains, while “accessories” includes decorative objects attached to an individual’s body or clothing like bracelets and hair ties. “Electronics” covers cellular phones and tablets. “Hats” encompasses removable forms of headwear, most typically represented by baseball-style hats or sun hats. “Plastics” is an item class consisting of lighters and bottles, which may be filled with water, soda, or juice. The “unidentified” category is used for stolen items which could not be clearly observed during or after the robbing and bartering sequence.“Robbery attempts” refers to the combined total number of successful and unsuccessful robberies. “Robbery efficiency” is a novel metric referring to the number of successful robberies divided by the total number of robbery attempts. The “Exchange Outcome Index” is calculated by dividing the number of successful exchanges by the total number of robbery attempts. We make this calculation using robbery attempts instead of successful robberies to account for total robbery effort because failed robberies still factor into an individual’s total energy expenditure toward receiving a bartered food reward and their total exposure to the risks (e.g., physical retaliation) of stealing from humans relative to achieving the desired end result of a food reward.Social rank was measured with David’s Score, calculated using dyadic agonistic interactions. We coded “winners” of contests as those who exhibited the agonistic behavior, while “losers” were the recipients of those agonistic behaviors21,22. We excluded intergroup agonistic interactions in our calculations of David’s Score.To account for potential variation in the overall patterns of interaction with humans between groups we calculated a Human Interaction Rate, which is the sum of human-directed interactions from focal animals in each group divided by the total number of observation hours on focal animals in that group.Statistical analysisWe ran statistical tests in SYSTAT software with a significance level set at 0.05. We used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess the significance of differences in successful robberies between individuals for each group. To avoid having cells with values of zero, two focal subjects, Minion and Spot from Celagi, are excluded from this test because neither were observed making a successful robbery during the observation period. We also used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess exchange outcome occurrences within each group, as well as a Fisher’s exact to test for significant differences in robbery outcomes between groups due to low expected counts in 40% of the cells. “Rejected exchange” events were not included in the analysis of robbery outcomes because they do not end the sequence and are therefore not mutually exclusive with the other robbery outcomes.We further tested for the effect of dominance position on robbery outcomes. Due to our small sample size and the preliminary nature of this investigation, we used Spearman correlations to assess the relationship between subadult male dominance position via David’s Score and (1) robbing efficiency and (2) the Exchange Outcome Index.Compliance with ethical standardsThis research complied with the standards and protocols for observational fieldwork with nonhuman primates and was approved by the University of Notre Dame Compliance IACUC board (protocol ID: 16-02-2932), where JVP and AF were affiliated at the time of this research. This study did not involve human subjects. This research further received a research permit from RISTEK in Indonesia (permit number: 2C21EB0881-R), and complied with local laws and customary practices in Bali. More

Sampling sitesLongitudinal observation campaigns for I. ricinus nymph activity were carried out at 11 sampling sites in forest areas from seven different tick observatories across France. Tick observatories are located at the following French municipal areas, where the coordinates of the centre of each municipal area and the climatic types29 are also provided as: (1) La Tour de Salvagny (45° 48′ 50.6″ N 4° 42′ 53.2″ E; Mixed climates); (2) Saint-Genès-Champanelle (45° 43′ 23.8″ N 3°01′ 08.0″ E; Mountain climate); (3) Etiolles (48° 37′ 59.9″ N 2° 28′ 00.1″ E; Degraded oceanic climate); (4) Carquefou (47° 17′ 58.5″ N 1° 29′ 26.0″ W; Oceanic climate); (5) Gardouch (43°23′ 25.7″ N 1° 41′ 02.1″ E; South-West Basin climate); (6) Velaine-en-Haye (48° 42′ 13.4″ N 6° 01′ 16.1″ E; Semi-continental climate); (7) Les Bordes (47° 48′ 47.3″ N 2° 24′ 01.3″ E; Degraded-oceanic climate) (Fig. 1). The observation campaigns were carried out from April/June 2014 to May/June 2021 in most observatories, except for Les Bordes, which began in April 2018.Figure 1The map was created using QGIS version 3.8, Zanzibar (https://www.qgis.org). The climatic region types were previously classified by Joly et al.29.The distribution of tick observatories according to the climatic region types of continental France: (1) Etiolles (degraded oceanic); (2) Velaine-en-Haye (semi-continental); (3) Les Bordes (degraded oceanic); (4) Carquefou (oceanic); (5) La Tour de Salvagny (mixed); (6) Saint-Genès-Champanelle (mountain); (7) Gardouch (south-west basin). Phenological patterns observed at each observatory were also indicated.Full size imageEach tick observatory corresponds to one sampling site except La Tour de Salvagny, Gardouch, and Les Bordes (Table S1). In La Tour de Salvagny, we had to withdraw the observations at the original site (La Tour de Salvagny A) in September 2016 because the site became no longer accessible. In April 2017, we continued our observations at a nearby site, approximately 2 km apart (La Tour de Salvagny B). In Gardouch, the activity of questing nymphs was observed both inside and outside the enclosed area of an experimental station on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), referred to as Gardouch Inside and Gardouch Outside, respectively. The estimated population density of roe deer in Gardouch Inside (50 individuals per 100 ha) was higher than Gardouch Outside (less than 20 individuals per 100 ha) (H. Verheiden, personal communication, 15th October 2021). Furthermore, three sampling sites in Les Bordes, approximately 1.2 km apart, were referred to as Les Bordes A, B, and C, respectively. Additional sampling sites of these observatories were considered and reported as distinct sampling sites in further analyses, resulting in a total to 11 sampling sites from 7 observatories. Furthermore, due to their geographical proximity, meteorological/climatic factors of different sampling sites from the same observatories were considered identical in subsequent statistical analyses, whereas land cover and topography factors could be varied.Field observation campaigns were planned and carried out by local investigators who had been trained on the sampling protocol. The locations of forests, sampling sites, and passages were chosen where their biotopes are known to be suitable for I. ricinus tick populations around each observatory at the time the field observation campaigns started30. The observations were never carried out during the daytime when the weather was highly unfavourable to questing ticks, e.g., heavy rain, snow, or snow cover.Sampling protocol for questing Ixodes ricinus nymphsActivity of questing I. ricinus nymphs was observed by a cloth-dragging sampling technique31. Within a 1-km radius, a 1 m × 1 m white cloth was dragged over 10 observation units of 10 m short-grass vegetative forest floors, called transects. For each transect, a repeated removal sampling design was used27. The cloth-dragging sampling process was successively repeated three times per sampling. All nymphs found on white cloth in each campaign were removed and collected in a vial for subsequent morphological identification32 by the same acarologists at the corresponding laboratories. As a result, the questing nymph activity of each sampling site was monitored as a total number of confirmed I. ricinus nymphs collected from three repeated sampling on 10 transects, equivalent to a surface area of 100 m2. This measure was considered as an indicator for tick abundance on the day of sampling. The same transects were repeatedly sampled throughout the study period at approximately 1-month intervals.Environmental dataWe tested 28 environmental variables to explain the observed I. ricinus nymph activity (Table 1). These variables could be categorized as: (1) Daytime duration and meteorological variables (time-dependent, 9 variables); (2) Land cover, topography, and bioclimatic variables (time-independent, 19 variables).Table 1 Environmental variables (meteorological, land cover, topography, and bioclimatic variables) used to explain I. ricinus nymph counts per 100 m2 in regression analysis.Full size tableDaytime duration and meteorological variablesDaytime duration ((daytime)) from January 2013 to June 2021 at each sampling site was obtained from the corresponding latitude using geosphere package33. Hourly meteorological data (2-m temperature and relative humidity) were recorded locally at each forest. Subsequently, daily mean, minimum, and maximum values of temperature (({T}_{M}), ({T}_{N}), and ({T}_{X}); in °C) and relative humidity (({U}_{M}), ({U}_{N}), and ({U}_{X}); in %) were derived from these hourly records. The meteorological seasons of the temperate area in northern hemisphere are defined as: (1) Spring, 1st March to 31st May; (2) Summer, 1st June to 31st August; (3) Autumn, 1st September to 30th November; (4) Winter, 1st December to 28th or 29th February.Missing values found on these local daily-level variables were imputed by the random forest algorithm in mice package34. External daily meteorological data, i.e., daily average temperature and relative humidity, derived from neighbouring weather stations (Météo-France or INRAE), as well as month and year information, were used as auxiliary variables (Table S2). As a result, the imputation process creates a total of 500 iterated values for each variable. The median values of 500 imputations were used to replace the missing values.The imputed daily meteorological data were subsequently used to calculate the averaged values in different lagged time intervals for further analysis, called interval-average variables15. The interval-average variables were generated to reduce the uncertainty that might arise during the imputation process and to capture the cumulative effects of the meteorological variables, which were mean temperature ({T}_{M}) and minimum relative humidity ({U}_{N}). The interval-average variables were defined as the average values of a meteorological variable (Min) {({T}_{M}), ({U}_{N})} during a period between ({t}_{1}) to ({t}_{2}) month(s) before the sampling, denoted as ({M}^{{t}_{1}:{t}_{2}}), where 1 month consists of 28 days. As temperature conditions affect several ecological processes of tick populations, particularly developmental and questing rates3, the mean temperature ({T}_{M}) was selected for further analysis to reflect the overall temperature effects. While the minimum relative humidity ({U}_{N}) was chosen for the following reasons: (1) the survival of I. ricinus is highly sensitive to desiccation conditions6,7,8. As a result, when compared to mean or maximum relative humidity, minimum relative humidity is a relatively strong indicator of the effects of desiccation stress; (2) the variation of minimum relative humidity among all sites was higher than that of the mean and maximum relative humidity. This high variation allowed us to better describe meteorological characteristics of each sampling site.Here, we hypothesized that interval-average meteorological conditions influence the dynamics of observed nymph activity at different time lags in different manners. Short-term lags may have an impact on immediate responses, such as the probability of questing. At the same time, long-term lags may influence the dynamics of nymph abundance, which is associated with development and survival rates. Therefore, we explored the impact of each meteorological variable at following time lags on the observed nymphs activity in subsequent regression analysis: (1) 1-month moving average condition, ({M}^{0:1}); (2) previous 3-to-6-month moving average condition, ({M}^{3:6}); (3) 6-month moving average condition, ({M}^{0:6}); (4) 12-month moving average condition, ({M}^{0:12}). For instance, ({T}_{M}^{0:1}) denotes 1-month moving average temperature, representing an average of temperature between 0 and 1 months (0–28 days) before the day of sampling.In addition to the interval-average variables, monthly and seasonal average values of mean temperature and minimum relative humidity during the observation period were also calculated to describe the characteristics of meteorological conditions of each sampling site.Land cover, topography, and bioclimatic variablesWe obtained land cover, topography, and bioclimatic data from a 1-km radius buffer area around the center of each sampling site to capture habitat characteristics across all 10 transects. All the variables were handled and obtained by using QGIS version 3.8.035. The digital elevation model (DEM) data derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) database36 was used to describe the topographic features of sampling sites, which included the mean (({mean}_{elv})) and standard deviation (({sd}_{elv})) of the elevation (in m above sea level), the proportion of flat area (({p}_{flat}); defined by the slope ≤ 2.5%37), the proportion of area facing north (({p}_{north})), east (({p}_{east})), west (({p}_{west})), and south (({p}_{south})), and the catchment area ((catchment)) as a proxy variable for moisture. Bioclimatic variables for each site (historical average conditions during 1970–2000) were derived from the WorldClim database38, including the annual mean temperature (({BIO1}_{Temp}); in °C), the mean diurnal range (({BIO2}_{Diur}); in °C), the maximum temperature of the warmest month (({BIO5}_{maxTemp}); in °C), and the annual precipitation (({BIO12}_{Prec}); in mm). The land cover features of each sampling site were described using the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) 201839, while the characteristics of forests were explained by the BD forêt version 2 data40. The forest fragmentation was characterized by the percentage of forest-covering area (({p}_{Forest})), the forest edge density (({ED}_{Forest}); in m/km2), and the number of forest patches (({n}_{Forest})). While the diversities of the land cover types (level-1 and level-2 CLC) and the forest types were calculated by using the Shannon’s diversity index41 ((H)) as (H=sum_{i=1}^{S}{p}_{i}mathrm{ln}{p}_{i}), where (S) is the total number of land cover/forest types and ({p}_{i}) is the proportion of land cover/forest type (i) within the 1-km radius buffer area. The Shannon’s diversity index for level-1 CLC, level-2 CLC, and forest types were denoted as ({H}_{CLC1}), ({H}_{CLC2}), and ({H}_{Forest}), respectively. Finally, the soil pH data (({pH}_{soil})) was retrieved from the European Soil Data Centre (ESDC) database42.Statistical analysisAll the statistical analyses were carried out using the programming language R version 3.6.043. The variations of questing nymph population of each site were described by using (1) baseline annual nymph counts (spatial variation); (2) phenological patterns (seasonal variation). A baseline annual nymph count of site (i) (({{N}_{base}}_{i})) was defined as a summation of monthly median nymph counts ({varvec{tilde{N}}}_{i}={{tilde{N }}_{i,t}}) across all 12 months (tin left{mathrm{1,2},dots ,12right}) and expressed as: ({{N}_{base}}_{i}=sum_{t=1}^{12}{tilde{N }}_{i,t}). Subsequently, the monthly median nymph counts of each site ({varvec{tilde{N}}}_{i}) were transformed into normalized monthly median nymph counts ({varvec{tilde{N}}}_{i}^{*}={{tilde{N }}_{i,t}^{*}}) following Eq. (1) to have a range value of 0 to 1, which allows us to compare phenological patterns among all sites that have different annual baseline nymph counts.$${tilde{N }}_{i,t}^{*}=frac{{tilde{N }}_{i,t}}{mathrm{max}({stackrel{sim }{{varvec{N}}}}_{i})}$$
(1)
The term (mathrm{max}({stackrel{sim }{{varvec{N}}}}_{i})) denoted the maximum monthly median nymph counts. The normalized median nymph count ({tilde{N }}_{i,t}^{*}) of 1 indicates the maximum nymph activity (peak), while the value ({tilde{N }}_{i,t}^{*}) of 0 designates the absence of nymph activity. Afterwards, the phenological patterns were descriptively classified using the following criteria: (1) the season which the peaks of activity arrive; (2) evidence of reduced activity during winter (November–January); (3) the number of activity waves in a year, whether the pattern is unimodal or bimodal. After assigning phenological patterns to each site, the overall trends of different patterns were derived from medians of the normalized monthly median nymph count ({tilde{N }}_{i,t}^{*}) from all sites that belonged to each pattern. Furthermore, the directional changes in the maximum nymph counts were tested using a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, a p-value More

Our results show that the effects of the forest disturbance drivers on biodiversity are likely to be different from those simply expected from the baseline proportions of the forest disturbance drivers if we take into account the threatened species’ distributions. The amount of forest habitat is a primary factor for species diversity of many taxa, including mammals, amphibians, reptiles, birds, insects, and plants18. Indeed, our results revealed that threatened forest species have been exposed to a disproportional decrease in their habitat amount globally (i.e., lower proportions of forest with no or minor loss in all regions when species ranges were considered). Although this finding may be intuitive as population size and/or species range are part of the criteria in the IUCN assessment19, the detected pattern supports the validity of our approach of combining a forest disturbance map and species ranges for evaluating the impact of forest disturbances on threatened species. Moreover, we found that the dominant drivers differ among regions: the proportion of forestry, for example, increased in northern regions such as North America and Europe, whereas that of shifting agriculture increased in tropical regions when threatened species’ distributions were considered. These facts indicate although several influential international schemes for conservation have been implemented for regulating forestry20,21, different mechanisms aiming to directly tackle the over land use for local agriculture may increase their importance when we consider conservation in tropical regions. Our findings suggest that the social and economic drivers underlying the forest disturbance that impacts biodiversity differ among regions or nations, and it is important to establish specific conservation strategies in order to be effective.Based on the findings, we further emphasize that the combinations of multiple interacting drivers are likely to vary among regions. For example, the frequency and extent of stand-replacing natural disturbances such as wildfires have clearly been magnified by climate change, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g.,22). After such natural disturbances, societal demand for timber and/or pest reduction compels forest managers to ‘salvage’ timber by logging before it deteriorates, a common practice even in locations otherwise exempt from conventional green-tree harvesting, such as national parks or wilderness areas23. Thus, salvage logging clearly mediates the interaction between disturbances by forestry and wildfires and is likely to further affect biodiversity under climate change. Especially in regions where infrastructure (e.g., irrigation systems) has not been well developed, unpredictable changes in precipitation due to climate change was reported to increase forest disturbance by unregulated increases of agricultural land use24. Such regions largely overlapped with regions where shifting agriculture was identified as a dominant disturbance driver for threatened species in this study. Moreover, species themselves shift their ranges in response to climate change25, which would also shift major disturbance drivers and influential interactions of drivers to which the species are exposed, given the region-specific driver patterns. These examples clearly suggest the necessity to understand both the region-specific interrelations among multiple drivers and species’ responses for better prediction of land-use change and thus its effects on biodiversity.Shifting agriculture was the most dominant driver in all tropical regions corresponding to the recent estimates suggesting that the cover of regenerating secondary forest is increasing worldwide26. We demonstrated that this tendency is more drastic especially within the range of threatened species. The effect of shifting agriculture per unit area might be more limited than that of commodity-driven deforestation, which permanently alters forests into other land uses, since habitat structure might recover as the forest vegetation regenerates to a secondary state following the abandonment of the small clearings. However, ample evidence shows that many types of agricultural activities significantly degrade the conservation value of primary forest, especially in the tropics27, which often recovers very slowly if ever28 with the loss of irreplaceable conservation values. Therefore, given the wide areas of dominance of shifting agriculture across all tropical regions, its effect is likely to be pervasive. Consistently, our results show that species extinction risk (i.e., IUCN Red List status) is positively related to the proportional coverage of shifting agriculture (Fig. 2). In addition, as expected, a larger current proportion of shifting agriculture within a species range worsens the change rate in IUCN Red List status of the species (Fig. 4b). Furthermore, the effect is anticipated to be magnified for forest specialists because they are exposed to larger proportions of shifting agriculture than are forest generalist (Fig. 2), and they are also reported to recover more slowly than do forest habitat generalists27,28.A guideline for forest restoration suggested that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥40% forest cover (higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics), with about 10% in a very large forest patch and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural wooded elements (e.g., vegetation corridors)29. Importantly, the guideline also suggests that the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. Although younger secondary forest cannot be a substitute for pristine forest until 50 years or more after a disturbance, it can help to improve the quality of matrix in agricultural landscapes30. Indeed, we show that the negative impacts of shifting agriculture and forestry on IUCN status change have improved over time (Fig. 4b, c), presumably corresponding to the forest regenerating and recovery process. In contrast, the pattern of commodity-driven deforestation, a land use accompanied with permanent forest loss, showed a prolonged negative impact on IUCN status change (Fig. 4a). Notably, whether regenerating forests can move towards a highly diverse and structurally complex state or towards a state of low to intermediate levels of biodiversity and structural complexity depends on the amount of remaining intact mature forest in the landscape29. Therefore, a promising direction for future research would be to develop our analysis further to include spatiotemporal relationships among mature forest remnants, secondary forests, disturbance drivers, and threatened species populations.For conserving the core patches of mature forests, the establishment of protected areas (PAs) is one of the most effective legal measures that has been widely used to regulate land use for biodiversity31. On the other hand, for improving matrix quality, balancing conservation and use of the ecosystem would be critically important; shifting agriculture, for example, causes forest degradation, but it also contributes to food supply chains sourced from smallholder farmers and to food security of local communities8. In fact, establishing mechanisms for managing biodiversity-friendly landscapes has been intensively discussed recently, given the large potential influence of these landscapes on conservation32. These mechanisms include setting an international target on OECMs15. Our finding of a disproportional decrease in forest proportions with minor or no loss within species ranges supports the urgency of the discussion. At the same time, our results highlight an opportunity because large portions of the disturbed forests for threatened species are dominated by shifting agriculture at the global scale, especially in the tropics. As suggested above, if manged properly, such landscapes can still retain or improve functions as essential habitats and/or matrix for a variety of forest-dwelling species. Our analytical method provides a tool set to identify and prioritize areas where such attempts are urgently needed.Global demands for natural resources and ecosystem services drive land use in forests33 and thus affect biodiversity. Therefore, connecting the supply chains to the five major drivers of forest disturbance and their spatial overlaps with biodiversity is essential to inform how we should regulate and design material flows from forest ecosystems to keep them sustainable by minimizing the effects on biodiversity. Existing studies examining the impacts of resource consumption on biodiversity through supply chains of various sectors have often been assessed at the country scale (e.g.,12), partly because the availability of statistics needed to estimate material flows in supply chains is usually limited at finer (i.e., subnational) scales (but see34). We believe that our study provides the first basis for filling the resolution gap between trade statistics and local biodiversity effects by identifying patterns of the local co-occurrence of biodiversity and the forest disturbance drivers that can be directly linked to resource production at the national scale. Note, however, that downscaling a remotely sensed global data set into finer scales inevitably propagates errors and biases which include both those in the original maps and those in the processed data produced by analyses. Thus, preparation of more high-resolution data sets is essential, especially for disturbance drivers and threatened species’ distributions in our case, to keep the errors and biases at a reasonable level at focal spatial scales.The effectiveness of area-based conservation measures to regulate land use for conservation including PAs and OECMs also depends strongly on social and ecosystem conditions. For example, a few studies show that the effectiveness of PAs in halting or slowing forest disturbances depends on PA characteristics such as size and history, as well as on the management entities such as subnational governments or indigenous peoples35,36,37. Moreover, there has been no attempt to elucidate whether PAs and OECMs are effective at regulating supply chains as a supply-side measure by balancing resource production, ecosystem services for local communities, and biodiversity conservation; to tackle this issue, it will be necessary to conduct extensive analyses integrating spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity, forest loss, its drivers, and material flows in global food supply chains. Though it is challenging and beyond the scope of this paper, solving this issue is urgent and raises a promising opportunity for future research. More