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    Physiology can predict animal activity, exploration, and dispersal

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    French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

    Crop dataCrop area (in hectare, ha, for sown areas) and production (in kg) statistics on departmental level from 1900 until 1988 were collected from books of national agricultural statistics (‘Statistique agricole annuelle’ or ‘Annuaire de statistique agricole’) compiled by the French Ministry of Agriculture; detailed references are provided in the supplementary information. Numbers were manually digitized from photocopied versions of the original paper documents. Data from 1989 to 2018 were derived from digital statistics from the Agreste database (‘Statistique agricole annuelle’ compiled by the Service de la Statistique et de la Prospective (SSP), Secrétariat Général du Ministère de l’Agriculture, de l’Agroalimentaire et de la Forêt (MAAF), France); details are provided in the supplementary information. Yields were calculated from total production and sown area for each department to avoid apparently often incorrect yield values printed in the old statistics books. Yields are given in kilogram per hectare (kg/ha, for sown area) for dry mass with 10–16% moisture content, depending on the crop.Data are available for ten crops: soft wheat (spring and winter separately), durum wheat, maize, oats (spring and winter), rapeseed (spring and winter), barley (spring and winter), potatoes, sugarbeet, sunflower and wine. The split into spring and winter crops eventually results in 18 distinct crop-cultivar types. Time frames with available data and the correspondence between French and English names are provided in Table 1.Table 1 Data set description for yields on department level.Full size tableThe shapes of French departments have changed over time. We use the 96 mainland (Metropolitan France) departments in their current form and subsume historical values to modern departments as follows. Corsica was one single department until 1975 but then split into Corse-du-Sud and Haute-Corse. Data for Corsica until 1975 were split equally (area, production) or copied (yield) to both new departments. Seine and Seine-et-Oise were two departments until 1967, but then subdivided into seven new departments on 1 January 1968. To account for this, we consider the values of the seven new departments (Essonne, Hauts-de-Seine, Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-de-Marne, Val-d’Oise, Yvelines) only from 1968 on and unite the two old departments into one counter-factual (“Seine_SeineOise” in the data tables) until 1967.Multiple cropping per year within this set of crops is accounted for by separate area data, but is practically nonexistent in France6.Quality filtersSome yield values had to be considered as outliers, also after checking for digitizing errors. There were four criteria for defining an outlier. First, absolute yield values larger than a physiologically currently unreachable threshold were removed; threshold values were 15 t/ha for barley and durum wheat, 200 t/ha for sugarbeet and potatoes, 20 t/ha for maize, oats and wheat, 10 t/ha for rape and sunflower and 200 hl/ha for wine. These thresholds were chosen to eliminate visually obvious outliers likely due to mismatches between area and production records. The values are set slightly above current maximum attained yields, thus remaining permissive and removing only obvious errors in this first step. Additionally, all yield values for winter rape in 1944, spring rape in 1968 and spring barley in 1980 were removed due to wrongly reported values in the yearbooks. This first step removed in total 167 yield data points. Second, the top 1% of yield values across all departments per decade were removed. Third, values above or below the mean +/− four times the standard deviation of each crop-department time series (for yield, area and production separately) were removed. Fourth, and finally, a similar variance filter as in the third step was applied within each decade of a single time series, filtering values above or below decadal mean +/− two (for yield) or three (area, production) decadal standard deviations. The latter three filters removed, on average, 3.6% of the yield and 0.2% of the area or production data, respectively (Table 1). There were, as a median, 43 yield outliers per department (out of 1,260 data points on average), with a range of 4 (department Hauts de Seine) and 255 (Nord) and an interquartile range of 35–50 outliers. Outliers were masked as missing values to avoid introducing a bias from any correction. In the accompanying data sets we provide two version of the full data set, one without any corrections (“RAW”) and one where the filters described above have been applied (“FILTERED”).ValidationNationally aggregated area, production and yield data from our data set were validated with national data from 1961 to 2018 provided by the FAO (http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E). Area and production data for crops with separate spring and winter data were summed on department level to test agreement with area and production data digitized for the ‘total’ crop. More

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    Climate drives long-term change in Antarctic Silverfish along the western Antarctic Peninsula

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    Time-to-event models for wild animals generally model exposure of individuals to natural conditions that may affect the risk of mortality and disappearance. Most models neglect to consider seasons of high human activity that may affect such risks, or interactions between endpoint hazards (reflected in incidences) that may illuminate ecology. For many large carnivores, which suffer from low natural mortality yet are also subject to high risk of anthropogenic mortality and poaching, seasons of anthropogenic activity may be as important as natural ones in mediating cause-specific mortality and disappearance.Importantly, such anthropogenic seasons of higher mortality need not be specific to the animals being studied, especially if the species is controversial and much mortality illegal: our anthropogenic seasons consist of state hunting and hounding seasons for species other than wolves (i.e., deer or bear hunting, and hounding; not wolf hunting), but that mediate human activity on the landscape during those seasons. Our results support the hypothesis that increases in poaching risk during hunting seasons may be attributable to the surge of individuals with inclination to poach on the landscape14,18,29. Alternatively, it could also suggest enhanced criminal activity of a few poachers during the same periods. We temper this increase in poaching risk by establishing snow cover as a major environmental factor strongly associated with poaching. Moreover, our time-to-event analyses illuminate how to evaluate the effects that such anthropogenic seasons may have on risk of mortality and disappearance of monitored animals throughout their lifetime, and how considering such seasons may elucidate the mechanisms behind anthropogenic mortality and disappearance.Additionally, our analysis period precedes and completely excludes any established public wolf hunting seasons. Hence, our modeled anthropogenic seasons represent the periods of most relevant anthropogenic activity for wolves, as hypothesized by other studies14,29,33 and suggested by social science studies on inclinations to poach self-reported by both deer hunters and bear hunters, as well as acceptance of poaching by hunters and farmers30,31,32.Our analyses show increases in the hazard of disappearances of collared wolves (LTF) relative to the baseline period (which excludes environmental and anthropogenic risks) for all seasons. The highest hazard of LTF occurs during the snow season, whereas increases in hazard are lower (and similar) for the two seasons that included hounding and hunting. LTF may experience changes in hazard due to changes in the hazard of any/all of its components: migration, collar failure, or cryptic poaching.Constant and steep increases in LTF hazard throughout a wolf’s lifetime suggests mechanisms other than migration regulating LTF hazard, given migration for adults is most frequent by yearlings and younger adults, around 1.5 to 2.2 years34,35,36. Moreover, only migration out of state would end monitoring, not routine extraterritorial movements of radio-collared wolves. That our seasonal LTF curves depict the cumulative hazards more than doubling beyond those t generally associated with dispersal (~ t  More

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