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    Functional diversity of Himalayan bat communities declines at high elevation without the loss of phylogenetic diversity

    Study area and sampling locationsWe conducted this study in Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary (30° 25′–30° 41′ N, 78° 55′–79° 22′ E), located in Uttarakhand state in the western Himalayas of India. This sanctuary covers a broad elevational gradient from 1400 to 4000 m above sea level (asl) (Fig. 1), with corresponding changes in habitat types: from Himalayan moist temperate forests dominated by Quercus spp. at low elevations, to sub-alpine forests dominated by Rhododendron spp. and alpine meadows at high elevations34. This sanctuary is known to harbour 26 species of bats35.Figure 1Map of India showing the location of the study area, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, and the sampling locations within the study area. Elevation is in m asl. The map was created using QGIS (v 3.6.3-Noosa) (QGIS Geographical Information System, www.qgis.org). Please note that the geographical boundaries represented in the map may contain areas considered disputed.Full size imageWe sampled at four locations spanning an elevational gradient of 2200 m. Sampling points within each location were spread across the elevations mentioned in parentheses: Mandal (1500–1800 m), Ansuya (2000–2200 m), Chopta (2700–3000 m) and Tungnath (3300–3700 m) (Fig. 1). Sampling was conducted between late-March and mid-May in 2018 and 2019, starting at lower elevations and then moving to higher elevations. This sampling duration coincides with summer in the Himalaya. To comprehensively sample the bat diversity, we employed a combination of automated ultrasonic recorders and capture sampling using mist-netting. Fieldwork was approved by the Internal Committee for Ethics and Animal Welfare, Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (approval no. 2018-06-01), and conducted under a permit issued by the Uttarakhand State Forest Department, Government of India (permit no. 2261/5-6).Sampling strategyFor acoustic sampling, we placed full spectrum passive ultrasonic recorders (SongMeter SM4BAT, Wildlife Acoustics, Maynard, MA, USA) in different habitat types (open, forest edge, and forest) at each elevation (hereafter, “passive recordings”). The recorders were programmed to record bat calls for two consecutive nights at each sampling point, from dusk to dawn (9–10 h/night), using a sample rate of 500 kHz/s, an amplitude threshold of 16 dB and a frequency threshold of 5 kHz. The dominant habitats at Ansuya and Tungnath are montane evergreen forests and alpine meadows respectively, therefore only these habitats were sampled at these elevations. The exact number of sampling points per habitat for each elevation is given in Table S1. On separate days after completing acoustic sampling at a site, we set up nylon and monofilament mist nets of 4, 6 or 9 m length, 16 × 16 and 19 × 19 mesh sizes (Ecotone GOC, Sopot, Poland) for four hours following dusk (starting between 18.30 h in early summer and 19.30 h in late summer). The captured bats were handled and measured following the guidelines of the American Society of Mammalogists36. To further refine identification in light of the paucity of taxonomic knowledge in the region, we collected only one specimen each of taxonomically-challenging species in accordance with our field research permit. We measured body mass (accuracy 0.1 g) using a spring balance (Pesola, Schindellegi, Switzerland), and forearm length (accuracy 0.01 mm) with vernier calipers (Swiss Precision Instruments SPI Inc., Melville, NY, USA). Next, we gently stretched the left wing and placed the live animal perpendicular to the background of a graph sheet of 1 × 1 cm grids. We photographed the outstretched wing using a Nikon D3400 DSLR camera at 55 mm zoom from a distance of about 90 cm. Subsequently, we released the bats and recorded their echolocation calls at a distance of 5 to 10 m using a handheld ultrasonic detector (Anabat Walkabout, Titley Scientific, Brendale, QLD, Australia) and saved them as audio files of .wav format. These recordings (henceforth referred to as “reference recordings”) formed the dataset used to develop a call library for identification.Call classifier and analysis of passive recordingsReference recordings from 2018 and 2019 were labelled using Raven Pro 1.5 (Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY, USA) to generate a dataset of acoustic parameters for identification. We visualized calls using a spectrogram with Hanning window, size 1024 samples with 95% overlap. From each recording, we selected 10 clear pulses and measured the following parameters: average peak frequency, maximum peak frequency, centre frequency, minimum peak frequency, peak frequency at the start and end of the call, bandwidth at 90% peak amplitude, average entropy, and call duration. All frequency variables were measured in Hz and time variables in ms. We used the peak frequency contour to determine start and end frequencies and also used bandwidth at 90% peak amplitude because higher frequencies attenuate quickly with distance from the emitting bat (causing changes to the bandwidth), and these measures are therefore more reliable in field circumstances. Using this labelled call library as a training dataset, we trained a fine K-nearest neighbours classifier using supervised learning within the ‘Classification Learner’ app in MATLAB (Mathworks, Inc., Natick, MA, USA). We further employed fivefold cross-validation to obtain estimates of the accuracy of each classifier in assigning calls to species. Using these pairwise values of relative accuracy (%), we generated confusion matrices for these classifiers where the species identities were represented in the columns and rows as ‘True’ and ‘Predicted’ classes, respectively. Any species with classification accuracy below 85% was clubbed with possible confusion species into a “sonotype”, to improve accuracy of the classifier in the most conservative way possible (Fig. S4). The complete list of sonotypes and their mean echolocation call parameters is presented in Table 1. The classifier identified these sonotypes with  > 80% accuracy, with the exception of Miniopterus and the Plecotus type B call (which, however, we could manually identify because of their call structures and frequencies). For all subsequent analyses on functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity, we used these sonotypes to ensure accurate identification.Table 1 Trait matrix of the sonotypes in our assemblage (FA in mm; fmaxe, pfc.min, and pfc.max in kHz; Duration in ms).Full size tableNext, we analysed the passive recordings manually in Raven Pro. We labelled calls in subsets of 15 min per hour of the passive recordings. For each hour, the 15-min subsets were in the time windows 0–5 min, 20–25 min and 40–45 min, so as to spread out our sampling window across the hour. Following labelling, we obtained sonotype IDs using the classifier, and then verified them manually by visual comparison to the call library to improve discrimination. For every 5-min interval, we made a presence-absence matrix where 1 indicated the presence of a sonotype and 0 indicated its absence. The number of 5-min intervals in which a sonotype was detected (hereby “acoustic detections”) was summed up for each sampling point. We measured the relative abundance of sonotypes as the proportion of its total number of acoustic detections relative to the total number of acoustic detections of all sonotypes in a given elevational location. The use of such a presence-absence framework is akin to ‘Acoustic Activity Index’37 which represents a relatively less biased index of activity that is less affected by differences in vocal behaviour and echolocation frequencies of different species of bats.Assessing detectabilityTo assess the completeness of our species inventory, we estimated the species richness of each sampling point using the first-order Jackknife Estimator (Jack 1)38. Jack 1 is a nonparametric procedure for estimating species richness using presence or absence of a species in a given plot rather than its abundance39. Mean species detectability was calculated as the ratio of the observed to estimated species richness for different sampling point-year combinations40,41. We then assessed whether this mean species detectability depended on the habitat type, year, and location by fitting a linear model with the above-mentioned variables as fixed factor predictors and the mean detectability as a response. We also determined species-level detectability by following the approach of Kéry and Plattner42. If a sonotype was detected by mistnetting or acoustic sampling in sampling event i, we modelled its probability to be detected in sampling event i + 1. For each sonotype, we fitted a generalized linear mixed-effects model (logit link and binomial error distribution) with detection/non-detection as the response variable, and habitat type, location, and year as the fixed factor predictors. Site and species were included as random intercepts. The significance of the fixed effects was assessed with the Likelihood Ratio Test. This test allows one to choose the best of two nested models by assessing the ratio of their likelihoods. The significance of the random effect (species) was assessed by applying a parametric bootstrap (number simulations = 100) to the model with and without the random effect, using the function bootMer of ‘lme4’ package. In short, a parametric bootstrap consists of fitting the model to the data and bootstrapping the obtained residuals. For these and other statistical analyses we used R version 4.0.2 (R Core Team 2020).Taxonomic diversityWe calculated rarefied incidence-based species richness (SR) and Simpson diversity extrapolated to 50 sampling events (the number of sampling events in Mandal) using the ‘iNEXT’ R package43. The calculations were performed on a sonotype-by-sampling point presence-absence matrix with detections from both acoustic sampling and mistnetting pooled together. In the matrix, columns represented sampling units (Night 1, Night 2 and so on) and rows represented sonotype. By using sonotypes instead of species, we likely underestimated the SR, but this underestimation was uniform across elevations and is unlikely to change the pattern of SR with elevation.Functional diversityOur functional trait matrix (Table 1) comprised seven morphological and acoustic traits involved in guild classification, foraging and micro-habitat preferences (abbreviation followed by units): forearm length (FA, mm), aspect ratio (AR), wing loading (WL, N/m2), tip-shape index (I), echolocation peak frequency/frequency of maximum energy (FmaxE, kHz), minimum and maximum frequencies of the peak frequency contour (pfc.min and pfc.max, kHz) and call duration (D, ms). FA was measured in the field using vernier calipers. We used ImageJ (National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA)44 to measure total wing area, areas of hand and arm wings and the wingspan from the standardised wing photos that were taken in the field. We calculated AR, WL, and I from these measurements following the equations given in Norberg and Rayner45. AR and WL both represent parameters that are correlated with flight aerodynamics and behaviour. I is influenced by the shape of the wing tip where values of 1 and above indicate broad, triangular tips, while those below 1 indicate acute wing tips. The four acoustic traits represent the shape of the echolocation call and they were measured from the reference recordings using Raven Pro, as described above.We first calculated the means for each of the seven traits across all species within a sonotype (thus obtaining one average trait value for each sonotype) (Table 1) and then used those to compute four multivariate functional diversity (FD) indices: functional richness (FRic), divergence (FDiv), evenness (FEve)46, and dispersion (FDis)47, using the function dbFD() in the ‘FD’ R package47. Our FD measures are unlikely to be underestimated due to the pooling of species into sonotypes because these species were similar in acoustic and morphological traits. FRic is the convex hull volume of the traits of species present in a community, measured in the multidimensional trait space. This measurement is not weighted by abundance, relative abundance or biomass of the species in the community, but, it is standardised such that it ranges from 0 to 1. FDiv reflects the distribution of abundance across taxa (sonotypes in our case) in the functional space. High FDiv means the taxa with extreme trait values are more abundant in a community whereas low FDiv means that those with the trait values close to the centre of the functional space are more abundant48. FEve, on the other hand, measures the evenness in the abundance distribution of taxa in the functional space. FEve is high when all taxa have similar abundances, and it is low when some functional groups are abundant while others are rare48. Lastly, FDis is measured as the mean distance of all taxa to the abundance-weighted trait community centroid. We performed two sets of analyses: one using the number of mistnet captures as a proxy for relative abundance, and another using the number of detections of different sonotypes in 5-min intervals in the passive recordings as a proxy of relative abundance. We did not pool acoustic detections and mistnet captures as they have inherently different detection probabilities and measure different entities (relative number of detections vs. number of captured individuals). Owing to rhinolophid bats at lower elevations being taxonomically and functionally different from the remaining species pool, we performed another set of FD calculations, excluding the four rhinolophid species and using acoustic detections as relative abundance. One species, Tadarida teniotis was commonly detected at all elevations on acoustic recorders, but we were unable to capture it as it foraged high above the ground, and thus were unable to collect morphological trait data. Additionally, in using acoustic detections as a measure of relative abundance, we had to exclude the non-echolocating pteropodid bat Sphaerias blanfordi which was caught only once at Chopta. Therefore, our FD values are likely systematically underestimated across all elevational communities, which does not affect the comparison of community composition across elevations.Phylogenetic diversityUsing the nexus file of a published phylogeny49, we pruned the tree to represent species in the 14 sonotypes. For each of these types, we chose the species most commonly mist-netted as representative of its group. Published DNA sequences are lacking for some of the species in this region, so we chose their closest relatives from the phylogeny instead. Thus, we made the following replacements: (a) Nyctalus leisleri represented the AMN sonotype, (b) Eptesicus serotinus represented the EH sonotype, (c) Murina aurata for Murina sonotype, (d) Myotis longipes for MS sonotype, (e) Pipistrellus javanicus for MP sonotype, and (f) Plecotus turkmenicus for Plecotus sonotype. After pruning the tree, we calculated three indices of phylogenetic diversity using the ‘picante’ R package50: Faith’s phylogenetic diversity (PD), Mean pairwise distance (MPD) and Mean nearest-taxon distance (MNTD). Faith’s PD is a measure of phylogenetic richness which is obtained by summing the branch lengths of the tree connecting the species in the community. MPD and MNTD measure phylogenetic dispersion of communities; whereas MPD measures the average phylogenetic distance among all the taxa in a community, MNTD measures the same for the nearest neighbouring taxa51. We weighted MPD and MNTD by relative abundance of the sonotypes in each community (like FD, the number of detections in five-minute intervals in the passive recordings was used as a proxy of relative abundance).Null model testingAs FD and PD are strongly correlated to species richness52, we used a null model to assess whether the observed was significantly different than expected due to chance alone. We produced the null distribution of each FD and PD index by randomizing the community matrix 999 times using the ‘independent swap’ method53,54, so as to preserve the species richness at each site and the number of sites in which each species can be found. Our randomization was further constrained by elevation, so that the abundances were randomized among the sampling points within each elevation. The null model allows for calculation of an effect size (difference between the observed value and mean of the null distribution). Given the range of FD and PD values, the effect sizes are not comparable across communities with vastly different species richness55. Therefore, standardized effect sizes (SES) of each index were calculated at each site as the difference between the observed value and the mean of the null distribution, divided by the standard deviation of the null distribution. SES  > 1 and SES  More

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    Cooperative herbivory between two important pests of rice

    Plants and insectsRice (Oryza sativa) cultivar Minghui63 was used in this study. Rice plants were grown in a greenhouse at 27 ± 3 °C with 75 ± 10% RH (relative humidity) and a photoperiod of 16:8 h L:D (light:dark). The cultivation of rice plants followed the same procedure as described previously27. Plants were used for experiments when they were at the tillering stage, which occurred about 44–49 days after sowing.C. suppressalis larvae were reared on an artificial diet as described70. Ten percent honey water solution was provided to supply nutrition for the adults. N. lugens were maintained on a BPH-susceptible rice variety Taichung Native 1 (TN1)38. T. japonicum were obtained from Keyun Industry Co., Ltd (Jiyuan, China). Newly emerged adult wasps were maintained in glass tubes (3.5 cm diameter, 20 cm height) and supplied with 10% honey water solution as a food source and were maintained for at least 6 h to ensure free mating, before females were used for the following experiments. All three species were maintained in climatic chambers at 27 ± 1 °C, 75 ± 5% RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 h L:D.Performance of caterpillars on insect-infested rice plantsMultiple types of rice plants were prepared: (i) uninfested plants, meaning that potted rice plants remained intact without insect infestation; (ii) SSB-infested plants, each potted rice plant was artificially infested with one 3rd instar SSB larva that had been starved for >3 h for 48 h; (iii) BPH-infested plants, each potted rice plant was artificially infested with a mix of fifteen 3rd and 4th instars BPH nymphs for 48 h; (iv) SSB/BPH-infested plants, each potted rice plant was simultaneously infested with one SSB larva and 15 BPH nymphs for 48 h; (v) SSB → BPH-infested plants, each potted rice plant was artificially infested with one SSB larvae alone for the first 24 h, then 15 BPH nymphs were additionally introduced for another 24 h; (vi) BPH → SSB-infested plants, namely each potted rice plant was artificially infested with 15 BPH nymphs for the first 24 h, then one SSB larvae were additionally introduced for another 24 h. Plant treatments were conducted as described in detail in our previous study27. During herbivory treatment, the uninfested plants were placed in a separate room to avoid possible volatile-mediated interference. During the subsequent bioassays, both SSB caterpillar and BPH nymphs remained in or on the rice plants.Two bioassays were conducted to test the performance of C. suppressalis larvae feeding on differently treated rice plants. The first bioassay included the plant treatments i, ii, iii, and vi, and the second bioassay included the plant treatments i, ii, v, and vi. Three 2-day-old larvae of C. suppressalis were gently introduced onto the middle stem of each rice plant using a soft brush. The infested rice plants were then placed in climatic chambers at 27 ± 1 °C, 75 ± 5% relative humidity, and a photoperiod of 16:8 h L:D. The C. suppressalis larvae were retrieved from the rice plants after 7 days feeding, and they were weighed on a precision balance (CPA2250, Sartorius AG, Germany; readability = 0.01 mg). The mean weight of the three caterpillars on each plant was considered as one biological replicate. The experiment was repeated four times using different batches of plants and herbivores, resulting in a total of 30–46 biological replicates for each treatment.Oviposition-preferences of C. suppressalis females choosing among differently infested rice plantsGreenhouse experimentIn the greenhouse, seven choice tests were conducted with C. suppressalis females including (i) SSB-infested plants versus uninfested plants; (ii) BPH-infested plants versus uninfested plants; (iii) SSB/BPH-infested plants versus uninfested plants; (iv) SSB-infested plants versus BPH-infested plants; (v) SSB-infested plants versus SSB/BPH-infested plants; (vi) BPH-infested plants versus SSB/BPH-infested plants; and (vii) the test in which C. suppressalis females were exposed to all four types of rice plants. The experiments were performed as described in detail by Jiao et al.30. In brief, four potted plants were positioned in the four corners of a cage (80 × 80 × 100 cm) made of 80-mesh nylon nets for each test. For paired comparisons, two potted plants belonging to the same treatment were placed in opposite corners of each age, and in the test with four types of rice plants, each type of plant was positioned in one of the four corners of each cage. Five pairs of freshly emerged moths (less than 1 day) were released in each cage, and a clean Petri dish (9 cm diameter) containing a cotton ball soaked with a 10% honey solution was placed in the center of the cage as food source. After 72 h, the number of individual eggs on each plant were determined. The experiment was conducted in a greenhouse at 27 ± 3 °C, 65 ± 10% RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 h L:D. Each choice test was repeated with 9–11 times (replicates).Field cage experimentThe oviposition preference of SSB females was further assessed in a field near Langfang City (39.58° N, 116.48° E), China. Four choice tests were conducted: (i) SSB-infested plants versus uninfested plants; (ii) BPH-infested plants versus uninfested plants; (iii) SSB/BPH-infested plants versus uninfested plants; and (iv) SSB/BPH-infested plants versus SSB-infested plants. The treated rice plants were prepared as described above and were transplanted into experimental plots (1.5 × 1.5 m). For each pairwise comparison, six plots of rice plants were covered with a screened cage (8 × 5 × 2.5 m) made of 80-mesh nylon net to prevent moths from entering or escaping. Each of the six plots contained nine rice plants of a particular treatment, with three plots per cage representing the same treatment. Plots were separated by a 1 m buffer and they were alternately distributed in a 3 × 2 grid arrangement in each cage (Supplementary Fig. 4). Approximately 50 mating pairs of newly emerged C. suppressalis adults ( More

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    Thresholds in aridity and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio govern the accumulation of soil microbial residues

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    Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities

    Effects of temperature on C storage in soils with contrasting stabilisation capacitiesUsing a space-for-time approach, we defined the effect of temperature on C storage as the proportional reduction in C storage for each 10 oC increase in mean annual temperature. In this context, a value of 1 indicates no change in C storage with temperature, values less than 1 indicate C stocks increase with temperature and values greater than 1 indicate C stocks decline with temperature, with, for example, a value of 2 indicating that C stocks halve for every 10 oC increase in temperature. C storage in the top 50 cm of mineral soil declined strongly with increasing temperature, declining by a factor of ~1.4 per 10 oC (Fig. 1b). Critically, the nature of this relationship was modified by soil clay content; C storage in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities was affected much less by temperature than C storage in coarse-textured soils (Fig. 2a and Supplementary Fig. 1; factors of up to 1.9 per 10 oC for coarse-textured soils versus factors below 1.2 per 10 oC for finer-textured soils). We also demonstrate that the lower effect of temperature on C storage in fine-textured soils was retained after accounting for potentially confounding variation in precipitation, aridity (actual minus potential evapotranspiration), plant productivity, soil pH and cation exchange capacity (CEXC) (Fig. 2b). While we focus on the top 50 cm, due to the potential for vertical profiles of soil C to be affected by temperature22, very similar results were observed for the top 20 cm (Supplementary Fig. 2). In addition, the negative relationship between clay content and the effect of temperature on C storage was observed independently both above and below 15 oC (Fig. 3b, c).Fig. 2: Texture effects on temperature–soil carbon storage relationships.The effect of texture on the relationships between C storage in the top 50 cm of mineral soil and mean annual temperature in the raw data (a), and after accounting for potential confounding variables (b). The y-axes display the proportional reduction in C storage for each 10 oC increase in mean annual temperature, with higher values indicating greater reductions in soil C with temperature. In panel a, the slopes of the relationships (solid line), together with their 95% confidence intervals (dark grey shaded area), are presented for each of the textural categories, with the slope and 95% confidence interval for the full dataset (dotted line and light grey shaded areas) also presented across the graph for comparison. In panel b, the relationship between soil C storage and temperature after accounting for variation in annual precipitation (light blue), gross primary productivity (GPP; dark green), soil pH (purple), aridity (ET/PET; evapotranspiration minus potential evapotranspiration; navy blue), and cation exchange capacity (CEXC, light green) are shown. The slopes of these relationships (solid lines) together with their 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) are presented for each of the textural categories.Full size imageFig. 3: Comparison between soil profile data and JULES model output.The effect of texture on the relationships between C storage in the top 50 cm of mineral soil in the empirical data (solid lines) and JULES output (dashed lines). The slopes of these relationships (solid lines) together with their 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) are presented for each of the textural categories. Results for the full mean annual temperate range (a), as well as for subsets of the data for sites with mean annual temperatures below 15 oC (b, blue) and above 15 oC (c, red) are shown.Full size imageThe lower effect of temperature on soil C storage in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities was unexpected given the evidence of the high-temperature sensitivity associated with the decomposition of more protected SOM pools13,14,15. However, the findings from our global analysis are in agreement with a recent Europe-wide synthesis23, which, by compiling data from soil physical fractionation studies, demonstrated that mineral-associated C stocks varied less with temperate than freer particulate pools. Therefore, there is growing evidence that the effect of temperature on soil C storage is higher in soils containing a greater proportion of unprotected C.In the literature, there are apparently contradictory conclusions in terms of how C storage varies across fine-scale climate gradients, in which variation in other factors has been minimised. However, these may potentially be resolved by considering differences in the likely extent of SOM stabilisation. For example, on poorly weathered, relatively coarse-textured, silt loam soils in Alaska, mineral soil C stocks declined strongly with temperature24. In contrast, in Hawaiian forests growing on fine-textured soils with high concentrations of Al and Fe oxides, very little change in soil C storage was observed across a gradient of 5 oC in MAT. This was despite the fact that, in these Hawaiian forests, C storage in unprotected pools on the forest floor was found to decline strongly with temperature5. We suggest that differences in the extent of physicochemical protection in the Alaskan versus Hawaiian soils may explain the contrasting results. Thus, apparently contradictory findings may be resolvable within a single framework in which the relative effect of temperature on C storage in mineral soils declines as the soil’s physicochemical stabilisation capacity, and the proportion of C in protected pools, increase.Overall, our analysis identified C stored in high-latitude soils with limited capacities for stabilising organic matter as likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Such stores, therefore, may require particular attention given the high rates of warming taking place in cooler regions. In contrast, the particularly low effect of temperature on C storage in fine-textured soils in warm climates suggests (Fig. 3c) that the C stocks in many tropical soils may be less vulnerable to climate warming. While a soil warming study in a less weathered tropical soil identified the potential for high rates of C release25, our results are consistent with a recent large-scale analysis that concluded that the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration is generally lowest in tropical environments26. However, because C storage in tropical soils has been shown to be potentially vulnerable to drought27, it should not be concluded that C storage in tropical soils will be unaffected by climate change. Our results do, though, suggest that C stocks in coarse-textured soils at high latitudes are likely to be especially vulnerable to warming (Fig. 3b). Finally, while the dataset contains soil profile information for sites across the full mean annual temperature range investigated (0–30 oC), and there were data on a minimum of 500 profiles in every 5 oC temperature increment, increasing the amount of data available for sites with mean annual temperatures below 5 oC and greater than 20 oC would add further confidence to the findings.Because of their greater stabilisation capacities, fine-textured soils store more soil organic matter18. Therefore, fine and coarse-textured soils could contain similar absolute quantities of highly vulnerable C, and the lower effect of temperature in fine-textured soils could reflect the presence of greater quantities of low-vulnerability organic matter4. Therefore, it is likely to be very important to quantify stocks of unprotected pools, such as free particulate C, in soils with contrasting stabilisation capacities, and to investigate how such stocks vary with climate23. This may make it possible to identify whether there are still important stocks of unprotected organic matter that are vulnerable to climate warming in fine-textured soils with high stabilisation capacities2.Predicting and modelling future rates of C releaseAccurately predicting the response of soil C storage to global warming remains a major challenge. While spatial datasets, such as the ones analysed in this paper, add confidence to the prediction that C will be lost overall and help identify the most vulnerable stocks, they provide limited information on the likely rates or dynamics of C release. In this context, long-term surveys can be extremely valuable. For example, a recent study in Chinese grasslands was able to detect warming-induced soil C losses since the 1960s and, consistent with the global analysis presented here, coarser-textured soils lost far greater amounts of SOM28. Experimental soil warming studies also offer opportunities for further determining the factors controlling soil C storage and predicting rates of C release, although recent syntheses have produced conflicting overall findings29,30. Revisiting the networks of warming studies and considering the findings in the context of soil stabilisation capacities and changes in pools of protected and unprotected SOM may allow for a greater understanding of the observed patterns. For example, C losses from subsoils in response to 5 years of whole profile warming were shown to be dominated by the free particulate C pool31. Therefore, understanding the responses of different pools to warming may offer the potential to generate mechanistic understanding, even where changes in total C storage have been difficult to identify. It should though be recognised that there are major challenges in accurately quantifying relatively short-term changes in soil C stocks, and there are many other variables that differ between soil warming studies, including contrasting changes in plant productivity and rates of C input driven by interactions between C and nutrient cycling32. For these reasons, it may not always be possible to determine the role of soil stabilisation capacities in controlling soil C storage responses to experimental warming30, and observations collected across space and time will likely remain important for contextualising experimental results.Soil texture is included as a factor modifying decomposition rates in the terrestrial C cycle modules of a number of Earth systems models (ESMs), including the United Kingdom ESM (UKESM), whose land surface scheme (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES)33) is based around the Rothamsted C model34. Therefore, we investigated whether JULES was already able to represent the patterns that we had observed in the empirical data. In direct contrast to the empirical data, JULES predicted very little variation in soil C with temperature in cooler regions (below 15 oC; Fig. 3b), but predicted a strong effect of temperature on C storage across all textural classes above 15 oC (Fig. 3c). The pattern across the full dataset was confounded by the model simulating only a small number of fine-textured soils at high latitudes (Fig. 3a), and the fact that the relationship between temperature and soil C storage differed so strongly above and below 15 oC. However, crucially, JULES failed to reproduce the greater effect of temperature on C storage in coarse-textured soils and overestimated the effect of temperature on C storage in fine-textured soils in warmer regions. These findings question whether JULES is identifying accurately which soil C stocks are most vulnerable to the effects of climate warming. This is important given the considerable geographical variation in (1) rates of climate warming and (2) the amounts of C stored in mineral soil horizons. In recent years, there have been major efforts made towards developing models that include physicochemical stabilisation mechanisms and yet can potentially be run at the global scale35,36,37. Testing whether such models can better simulate the observed spatial patterns of C storage in soils with contrasting stabilisation capacities would increase confidence in projections of future changes in soil C stocks38.Limitations and future perspectivesAs well as influencing rates of key biological processes, climatic variables also control pedogenesis, rates of mineral weathering and therefore influence the reactivity of soil surfaces26,27,39. Directly determining the binding affinity of mineral surfaces is challenging and would require detailed information on the type of clay minerals present, as well as the abundance of key metal oxides35,36,40, but there is, currently, insufficient data to assess these more detailed variables at the global scale35. However, it has been argued that, at broad spatial scales, soil pH may explain an important proportion of variation in mineral-binding affinities35,41. Furthermore, cation exchange capacity (CEXC) varies with the type of clay minerals present and the binding efficiencies of the mineral surfaces42. In global analyses, texture, pH and CEXC tend to be the three edaphic factors that correlate most strongly with soil C storage18,20. For these reasons, we also accounted for variation in both pH and CEXC, and evaluated whether the relationship between soil texture and the effect of temperature on C storage was retained. We found that it was (Fig. 2b). Thus, we conclude, that within this large dataset, clay content remains a strong predictor of soil stabilisation capacities, both overall, and after accounting for factors that potentially control SOM binding affinities.While we consider that our analysis of how SOM stabilisation capacities determine the effects of temperature on soil C storage is robust, it is also high level. Thus, there is considerable opportunity to further investigate different vulnerabilities of specific pools of SOM, contrasting the roles of mineral protection versus occlusion in aggregates7, determining the importance of SOM binding affinities40, and linking protection mechanisms with the sources of the organic matter (e.g. microbial versus plant derived43). A debate has often revolved around whether climatic versus edaphic factors are more important in controlling patterns of soil C storage. Rather, than focusing on which is more important, for predicting future rates of soil C release, we suggest that a key priority should be on identifying how key edaphic factors determine the vulnerability of contrasting soil C stocks to climate warming. In this context, a recent meta-analysis demonstrated the importance of soil properties in controlling the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration, emphasising how responses to global warming will likely vary substantially between different types of soils in contrasting geoclimatic zones26.Using a large global database, we observed declining C storage with temperature in mineral soils, suggesting that there is the potential for strong positive feedback to climate warming. Critically, however, this overall relationship masked differences between soils with contrasting C stabilisation capacities, as indicated by their textural properties. The data suggest that there are stabilised pools of SOM in fine-textured soils that may be relatively insensitive to the impacts of climate change, but that unprotected pools may be substantially more vulnerable to climate warming than currently predicted. Finally, because at least one major ESM was unable to reflect the observed patterns, we argue that ESMs should be evaluated against their ability to simulate the differences in the effects of temperature on C storage in soils with contrasting textural properties in order to reduce uncertainties in projections of the effect of climate change on future soil C storage. More