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Figure 1 presents the track of the eight-month cruise, and Table 1 provides the detail of the legs and dates. On a routine basis R/V Hesperides sailed at an average speed of 11 knots from around 3 pm to 4 am (local time). The vessel arrived on station at around 4 am daily to carry out sampling operations at a fixed point for about 11 hours.Fig. 1Cruise track and integrated backscatter at different stations (NASC, daytime 200 to 1000 m).Full size imageTable 1 Dates and starting points of the 7 legs of the Malaspina cruise.Full size tableAcoustic measurements were carried out continuously using a Simrad EK60 echosounder), operating at 38 and 120 kHz (7° beamwidth transducers) with a ping rate of 0.5 Hz. Unfortunately, the 120 kHz failed during the first leg of the cruise and only 38 kHz data were collected. Echosounder observations were recorded down to 1000 m depth. The echosounder files are in the proprietary Simrad raw format and can be read by various softwares (e.g., LSSS, Echoview, Sonar5, MATECHO, ESP3, echopype, pyEcholab). GPS locations and calibration constants are imbedded in each file.Additionally, daytime data integrated over 2 m vertical bins from 200 to 1000 m depth are provided as Nautical Area Scattering Coefficient (NASC). Each “voxel” is the average of all cleaned and validated data recorded over that depth range, in a time period starting 8 hours before the start of the station (defined as start of the CTD cast) and ending 8 hours after the start of the station, with only data recorded in the period between 1 hour after local sunrise and 1 hour prior to local sunset accepted (i.e., during local daytime hours, but removing crepuscular periods when vertical migration of biota is strong). The relatively long interval over which data were accepted around each station was chosen since the station sampling resulted in noisy acoustic data,, a long interval was therefore chosen to ensure valid data on all stations.Finally, summaries of per station daytime and nighttime acoustic data (omitting data recorded within 1 hour of sunrise and sunset) are provided. The data fields in this file are station date, latitude and longitude, and per day and night average NASC 200–1000 m, average NASC 0–1000, weighted mean depth (WMD) of NASC 200–1000 m, migration amplitude, NASC day-to-night ratio and migration ratio. More

We analyse weekly reported counts of suspected and confirmed human cases and deaths attributed to LF (as defined in Supplementary Table 1), between 1 January 2012 and 30 December 2019, from across the entire of Nigeria. The weekly counts were reported from 774 LGAs in 36 Federal states and the Federal Capital Territory, under Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) protocols, and collated by the NCDC. All suspected cases, confirmed cases and deaths from notifiable infectious diseases (including viral haemorrhagic fevers; VHFs) are reported weekly to the LGA Disease Surveillance and Notification Officer (DSNO) and State Epidemiologist (SE). IDSR routine data on priority diseases are collected from inpatient and outpatient registers in health facilities, and forwarded to each LGA’s DSNO using SMS or paper form. Subsequently, individual LGA DSNOs collate and forward the data to their respective SE, also by SMS and paper form, for weekly and monthly reporting respectively to NCDC. From mid-2017 onwards, data entry in 18 states has been conducted using a mobile phone-based electronic reporting system called mSERS, with the data entered using a customised Excel spreadsheet that is used to manually key into NCDC-compatible spreadsheets. Data from this surveillance regime (WERs) were collated by epidemiologists at NCDC throughout the period 2012 to March 2018 (Supplementary Fig. 1).Throughout the study period, within-country LF surveillance and response has been strengthened under NCDC coordination2,20,33. LGAs are now required to notify immediately any suspected case to the state-level, which in turn reports to NCDC within 24 h, and also sends a cumulative weekly report of all reported cases. A dedicated, multi-sectoral NCDC LF TWG was set up in 2016 with the responsibility of coordinating all LF preparedness and response activities across states. Further capacity building occurred in 2017 to 2019, with the opening of three additional LF diagnostic laboratories in Abuja (Federal Capital Territory), Abakaliki (Ebonyi state) and Owo (Ondo state) (to a total of five; Fig. 2) and the rollout of intensive country-wide training on surveillance, clinical case management and diagnosis. We note that, due to the rapid expansion in a test capacity, the definition of a suspected case in our data has subtly changed over the surveillance period: from 2012 to 2016, suspected cases include probable cases that were not lab-tested, whereas from 2017 to 2019, all suspected cases were tested and confirmed to be negative.In addition to the WERs data, since 2017 LF case reporting data has also been collated by the LF TWG and used to inform the weekly NCDC LF Situation Reports (SitRep data; https://ncdc.gov.ng/diseases/sitreps). This regime includes post hoc follow-ups to ensure more accurate case counts, so our analyses use WER-derived case data from 2012 to 2016, and SitRep-derived case data from 2017 to 2019 (see Fig. 1 for full time series). A visual comparison of the data from each separate time series, including the overlap period (2017 to March 2018) is provided in Supplementary Fig. 1, and all statistical models considered random intercepts for the different surveillance regimes. Where other studies of recent Nigeria LF incidence have been more spatially and temporally restricted34,35, the extended monitoring period and fine spatial granularity of these data provide the opportunity for a detailed empirical perspective on the local drivers of LF at a country-wide scale and their relationship to changes in reporting effort.Recent trends in LF surveillance in NigeriaWe visualised temporal and seasonal trends in suspected and confirmed LF cases within and between years, for both surveillance datasets. Weekly case counts were aggregated to country-level and visualised as both annual case accumulation curves, and aggregated weekly case totals (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). We also mapped annual counts of suspected and confirmed cases across Nigeria at the LGA-level to examine spatial changes in reporting over the surveillance period (Fig. 2). State and LGA shapefiles used for modelling and mapping were obtained from Humanitarian Data Exchange under a CC-BY-IGO license (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/nga-administrative-boundaries).Analyses of aggregated district data are sensitive to differences in scale and shape of aggregation (the modifiable areal unit problem; MAUP36), and LGA geographical areas in Nigeria are highly skewed and vary over >3 orders of magnitude (median 713 km2, mean 1175 km2, range 4–11,255 km2). We therefore also aggregated all LGAs across Nigeria into 130 composite districts with a more even distribution of geographical areas, using distance-based hierarchical clustering on LGA centroids (implemented using hclust in R), with the constraint that each new cluster must contain only LGAs from within the same state (to preserve potentially important state-level differences in surveillance regime). Weekly and annual suspected and confirmed LF case totals were then calculated for each aggregated district. We used these spatially aggregated districts to test for the effects of scale on spatial drivers of LF occurrence and incidence.Statistical analysisWe analysed the full case time series (Fig. 1) to characterise the spatiotemporal incidence and drivers of LF in Nigeria, while controlling for year-on-year increases and expansions of surveillance effort. We firstly modelled annual LF occurrence and incidence at a country-wide scale, to identify the spatial, climatic and socio-ecological correlates of disease risk across Nigeria. Secondly, we modelled seasonal and temporal trends in weekly LF incidence within hyperendemic areas in the north and south of Nigeria, to identify the seasonal climatic conditions associated with LF risk dynamics and evaluate the scope for forecasting. All data processing and modelling was conducted in R v.3.4.1 with the packages R-INLA v.20.03.1737, raster v.3.4.1338 and velox v0.2.039. Statistical modelling was conducted using hierarchical regression in a Bayesian inference framework (integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)), which provides fast, stable and accurate posterior approximation for complex, spatially and temporally-structured regression models37,40, and has been shown to outperform alternative methods for modelling environmental phenomena with evidence of spatially biased reporting41.Processing climatic and socio-ecological covariatesWe collated geospatial data on socio-ecological and climatic factors that are hypothesised to influence either M. natalensis distribution and population ecology (rainfall, temperature and vegetation patterns), frequency and mode of human–rodent contact (poverty and improved housing prevalence), both of the above (agricultural and urban land cover) or likelihood of LF reporting (travel time to nearest laboratory with LF diagnostic capacity and travel time to nearest hospital). For each LGA we extracted the mean value for each covariate across the LGA polygon. The full suite of covariates tested across all analyses, data sources and associated hypotheses are described in Supplementary Table 5.We collated climate data spanning the full monitoring period and up until the date of analysis (July 2011 to January 2021). We obtained daily precipitation rasters for Africa42 from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) project; this dataset is based on combining sparse weather station data with satellite observations and interpolation techniques, and is designed to support hydrologic forecasts in areas with poor weather station coverage (such as tropical West Africa)42. A recent study ground-truthing against weather station data showed that CHIRPS provides greater overall accuracy than other gridded precipitation products in Nigeria43. Air temperature daily minimum and maximum rasters were obtained from NOAA and were also averaged to calculate daily mean temperature. EVI, a measure of vegetation quality, was obtained from processing 16-day composite layers from NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (excluding all grid cells with unreliable observations due to cloud cover and linearly interpolating between observations to give daily values; Supplementary Table 5).We derived several spatial bioclimatic variables to capture conditions across the full monitoring period (Jan 2012 to Dec 2019): mean precipitation of the driest annual month, mean precipitation of the wettest annual month, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), annual mean air temperature, air temperature seasonality, annual mean EVI and EVI seasonality. We also calculated monthly total precipitation, 3-month SPI44, average daily mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature and EVI variables at sequential time lags prior to reporting week for seasonal modelling (described below in Temporal drivers). SPI is a standardised measure of drought or wetness conditions relative to the historical average conditions for a given period of the year. SPI was calculated within a rolling 3-month window across the full 40-year historical CHIRPS rainfall time series (1981–2020) using the R package SPEI v.1.744.We accessed annual human population rasters at 100 m resolution from WorldPop. We accessed the proportion of the population living in poverty in 2010 ( More

Yield definitionsYield potential (Yp; megagrams per harvested hectare) is defined as the yield of a cultivar in an environment to which it is adapted, when grown with sufficient water and nutrients in the absence of abiotic and biotic stress40. In irrigated fields, Yp is determined by solar radiation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and management practices that influence crop cycle duration and light interception, such as sowing date, cultivar maturity and plant density. In rainfed systems where water supply from stored soil water at sowing and in-season precipitation is not enough to meet crop water requirements, water-limited Yp (Yw) is determined by water supply amount and its distribution during the growing season, as well as by soil properties influencing the crop–water balance, such as the rootable soil depth, texture and terrain slope. Actual yield is defined as the average grain yield (megagrams per harvested hectare) obtained by farmers for a given crop with a given water regime. The difference between Yp (or Yw) and farmer actual yield is known as the yield gap11. In the case of irrigated crops, Yp is the proper benchmark to estimate yield gaps, while Yw is the meaningful benchmark for rainfed crops. With good, cost-effective crop management, reaching 70–80% of Yp (or Yw) is a reasonable target for farmers with good access to markets, inputs and extension services, which is usually referred to as ‘attainable yield’41,42. Beyond this yield level, the small return to extra input requirement and labour does not justify the associated financial and environmental costs and level of sophistication in crop and soil management practices.Sources of Yp data derived from top-down and bottom-up approachesWe retrieved data generated from two initiatives following a top-down approach: (1) the GAEZ (http://www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en/; refs. 18,19) and (2) the AgMIP (https://agmip.org/data-and-tools-updated/; refs. 20,21). As the bottom-up approach, we used results from the GYGA (www.yieldgap.org; refs. 11,31,43). The main features of these databases are summarized elsewhere (Supplementary Table 1 and Supplementary Section 1). In the process of selecting the specific dataset, we explicitly attempted to reduce biases in the comparisons to the extent this was possible. For example, in all cases, we used simulations that meet the yield definitions provided in the previous section. We also tried to be consistent in terms of the time period for which Yp (or Yw) was simulated; however, this was not always possible, because while GAEZ and AgMIP use weather datasets that cover the time period between 1961 and 1990 and between 1980 and 2010, respectively, GYGA uses more recent weather data (Supplementary Table 1). Similarly, comparisons between databases were limited to those regions for which there were estimates of Yp (or Yw) for each of the top-down and bottom-up approaches. More detailed information about the three approaches can be found in Supplementary Section 1. We acknowledge that, when assessing different approaches, it is conceivable that there would be an inherent bias depending on who performs it and his/her preference. Although the authors of this current study have all contributed to the development of GYGA, we have maintained neutrality when conducting the analysis and made inferences solely based on the results shown here, avoiding any inherent bias. Additionally, methods and data sources are fully documented and publicly accessible for other researchers who may be interested in replicating our comparison.Comparison of bottom-up and top-down approaches at different spatial levelsComparison of the three databases needs to account for the different spatial resolution at which the data are reported (grid in GAEZ and AgMIP versus buffer in GYGA). In the present study, we compared Yp (or Yw) among the three databases at three spatial levels: local (also referred to as buffer), climate zone (CZ) and country (or subcontinent). An example of the three spatial levels evaluated in this study as well as the Yw estimated by each of the three databases for rainfed maize is shown in Extended Data Fig. 4. We note that buffer is the lowest spatial level at which Yp and Yw are reported in GYGA. For a country such as the United States, where maize production is concentrated on flat geographic areas, the average size of buffers and CZs selected by GYGA is 17,000 and 60,000 km2, respectively; the size is smaller for countries with greater terrain and climate heterogeneity, such as Ethiopia, where the average size of buffers and CZs selected for maize by GYGA is a respective 4,000 and 21,000 km2, or for smaller countries, such as in Europe.The GYGA already provides estimates of Yp (or Yw) and yield gaps at those three spatial levels. Following a bottom-up approach, GYGA estimates the Yp (or Yw) at the buffer level based on the Yp (or Yw) simulated for each crop cycle and soil type (within a given buffer) and their associated harvested area (within that same buffer) using a weighted average. Subsequently, Yp (or Yw) at buffer levels are upscaled to CZ, national or subcontinental levels using a weighted average based on harvested area retrieved from the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 201044. Details on the GYGA upscaling method can be found in van Bussel et al.13 In the case of top-down approaches, for comparison purposes, it was necessary to aggregate Yp (or Yw) reported for each individual grid into buffers, CZs and countries in order to make them comparable to those reported by GYGA. To do so, Yp (or Yw) from GAEZ and AgMIP was scaled up to buffer, climate zone and country (or subnational levels) considering the crop-specific area within each pixel, as reported by SPAM 201044. For example, for a given buffer, the average Yp (or Yw) was estimated using a weighted average, in which the value of Yp (or Yw) reported for each of the GAEZ or AgMIP grids located within the GYGA buffer was ‘weighted’ according to the SPAM crop-specific area within that grid. The same approach was used to estimate average Yp (or Yw) at the CZ and country (or subcontinental) levels for GAEZ and AgMIP.For a given buffer, CZ or country (or subcontinent), the yield gap was calculated as the difference between Yp (or Yw) and the average farmer yield (actual yield, Ya). The Yp and Yw were taken as the appropriate benchmarks to estimate yield gaps for irrigated and rainfed crops, respectively. To avoid biases due to the source of average actual yield in the estimation of yield gap, we used the average actual yield dataset from GYGA, because it provides estimates of average actual yield disaggregated by water regime for the most recent time period. Actual yield data from GYGA were retrieved from official statistics available at subnational administrative units such as municipalities, counties, departments and subdistrict. The exact number of years of data to calculate average yield is determined by GYGA on a case-by-case basis, following the principle of including as many recent years of data as possible to account for weather variability while avoiding the bias due to a technological time trend and long-term climate change31. Using the GYGA database on average actual yield for estimation of yield gaps does not bias the results from our study, as GYGA favours the use of official sources of average yields at the finer available spatial resolution, which is the same source of actual yield data used by other databases such as FAO and SPAM22,44. In this study, we opted not to use actual yield data from GAEZ, because they derived from FAOSTAT statistics of the years 2000 and 2005, and thus, they could lead to an overestimation of the yield gap in those regions where actual yields have increased over the past two decades19. Finally, extra production potential was calculated based on the yield gap estimated by each approach and the SPAM crop-specific harvested area reported for each buffer, CZ and country (or subcontinent). The top-down and bottom-up approaches were compared in a total of 67 countries, which together account for 74%, 67% and 43% of global maize, rice and wheat harvested areas, respectively (Extended Data Fig. 2). Overall, our comparison included a total of 1,362 buffers located within 870 CZs, with 422 buffers (within 249 CZs) for rainfed maize, 160 buffers (116 CZs) for irrigated maize, 93 buffers (66 CZs) for rainfed rice, 209 buffers (114 CZs) for irrigated rice, 400 buffers (274 CZs) for rainfed wheat and 78 buffers (49 CZs) for irrigated wheat. In all cases, Yp (or Yw), yield gaps and extra production potential were expressed at standard commercial moisture content (that is, 15.5% for maize, 14% for rice and 13.5% for wheat).We assessed the agreement in Yp (or Yw), yield gap, and extra production potential between GYGA and the two databases that follow a top-down approach (GAEZ and AgMIP) separately for each of the spatial levels (buffer, CZ, country or subcontinent) by calculating root-mean-square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (ME):$${mathrm{RMSE}} = sqrt {frac{{{sum} {(Y_{{mathrm{TD}}} – Y_{{mathrm{BU}}})^2} }}{n}}$$
(1)
$${mathrm{ME}} = frac{{{sum} {left( {Y_{{mathrm{TD}}} – Y_{{mathrm{BU}}}} right)} }}{n}$$
(2)
where YTD and YBU are the estimated Yp (or Yw), yield gap, or extra production potential for database i following a top-down approach and for GYGA, respectively, and n is the number of paired YTD versus YBU comparisons at a given spatial scale for a given crop in a given country. Separate comparisons were performed for irrigated and rainfed crops.Impact of Yp estimates on food self-sufficiency analysisWe assessed the impact of discrepancies in Yp (or Yw) between top-down and bottom-up approaches on the SSR, which is an important indicator for food security. To do so, we focused on cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa, and we calculated the SSR for the five main cereal crops in this region (that is, maize, millet, rice, sorghum and wheat) following van Ittersum et al.23. Millet and sorghum were included in the analysis of SSR in sub-Saharan Africa, because together they account for ca. 25% of the total cereal production and ca. 40% of the total cereal harvested area in this region (average over the 2015–2019 period)22. Briefly, we computed current national demand (assumed equal to the 2015 consumption) and the 2015 production of the five cereals to estimate the baseline SSR (that is, in 2015) in ten countries for which Yw (or Yp) data were available in GYGA. Current total cereal demand per country were calculated as the product of current population size derived from United Nations population prospects and cereal demand per capita based on the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)35,45. The annual per-capita demand for the five cereals was expressed in maize yield equivalents by using the crop-specific grain caloric contents, with caloric contents based on FAO food balances46. Current domestic grain production per cereal crop per country (approximately 2015) was calculated as mean actual crop yield (2003–2012) as estimated in GYGA times the 2015 harvested area per crop by FAO22. Total future annual cereal demand per capita (2050), for each of the five cereals and each country, was retrieved from IMPACT modelling results35 using the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2, no climate change) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment47. Total cereal demand per country in 2050 was calculated based on projected 2050 population (medium-fertility variant of United Nations population prospects; https://population.un.org/wpp/) multiplied by the per-capita cereal demand in 2050 from the SSP2 scenario. In our study, we assumed an attainable yield of 80% of Yw for rainfed crops, which is consistent with the original approach followed by van Ittersum et al.23, but, in our study, we also used 80% of Yp for irrigated crops as an estimate of the attainable yield, instead of 85% as in van Ittersum et al.23, to be slightly more conservative. Because the goal was to understand the level of SSR on existing cropland, we assumed no expansion of rainfed or irrigated cropland and no change in net planted area for each of the cereal crops. Our calculations for sub-Saharan Africa may be too pessimistic if genetic progress to increase Yp is achieved. Historically, genetic progress in Yp has contributed to progress in farm yields, although the magnitude of Yp increase is debatable. Progress in elevating Yp of the major cereals would imply, however, that even larger yield gaps need to be overcome than the already large gaps reported herein. Hence, we did not account for changes in genetic Yp in our calculation of SSR by 2050, also because climate change is likely to have a negative effect on Yp and Yw in sub-Saharan Africa.Reporting SummaryFurther information on research design is available in the Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this article. More

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