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    Body size dependent dispersal influences stability in heterogeneous metacommunities

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    Assessment of global hydro-social indicators in water resources management

    Evaluating indicatorsAmong the selected parameters the ratio of rural to the urban population directly relates to the per capita renewable water, whereas the population density, internet users, and education index exhibit an inverse relation with the per capita renewable water worldwide. It means the per capita renewable water decreases with decreasing rural to urban population and increasing population density, internet users, and education index. The urban population has increased in developing regions, which feature increasing population density. People’s health is threatened by poor urban sanitary infrastructure leading to disease and social decay. Increasing population density and a reduction in per capita renewable water inflict social harm and disrupt society’s economic growth58. Population density also is positively related to the relative number of elderly and social vulnerability because potential casualties increase with population size40. On the other hand, with the increase of Internet users and education index, the per capita renewable water has increased. As long as the knowledge and awareness of communities improved, the consumption algorithm decreased, leading to a reduction of renewable water per capita. Therefore, the level of literacy and knowledge for a community can be the basis for making the right decisions in agriculture, health, natural resource management, and other activities related to water resources for decision-makers. The latter situation calls for better communication among water users through social media and improved education to learn and develop optimal water management.Evaluating models and developing hydro-social equationsThree soft-computing approaches, namely ANN-LM, ANFIS-SC, and GEP, were applied to develop predictive equations with social indicators worldwide. The ANN-Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) backpropagation algorithm with one hidden layer was applied, and the hidden nodes’ number was determined by trial and error. A hybrid algorithm was combined with the ANFIS-SC models. There is no rule for determining the radii values of the ANFIS-SC models. The final radii values were determined by trial-and-error.The numbers of neurons in the ANN-LM models and the radii values of the ANFIS-SC models are listed in Table 4. The activation functions of the output nodes were linear for all the continents. The activation functions of the hidden nodes of the ANN-LM models for the P1 through P4 indicators were respectively the tangent sigmoid, tangent sigmoid, tangent sigmoid, and logarithm sigmoid for Africa; the activation functions of the proportion of rural to urban population was the tangent sigmoid for all the continents. Table 5 lists the results of the soft computing optimal models’ estimates of the proportion of rural to urban population (PRUP), population density (PD), internet users (IU), and education index (EI), denoted respectively by P1 through P4, during the test period in the world’s continents. Figures 4 and 5 display the characteristics of ANN (the number of neurons and activation functions of hidden and output layers) and ANFIS-SC (radii values) models, respectively. The values of R and RMSE for Africa corresponding to the ANN-LM models were respectively (0.921, 0.981, 0.858, 0.862) and (0.193, 0.058, 0.190, 0.172) associated with the PRUP, PD, IU, and EI parameters, respectively. The values of R and RMSE for Africa corresponding to the ANFIS-SC models equaled respectively (0.933, 0.991, 0.868, 0.891) and (0.130, 0.044, 0.186, 0.156) for the P1 through P4 parameters, respectively. Concerning the GEP models, the root relative squared error (RRSE) was selected as the pressure tree’s fitness function. The values of RMSE for GEP models equaled (0.084, 0.029, 0.178, 0.135), (0.197, 0.056, 0.152, 0.163), (0.151, 0.036, 0.123, 0.210), (0.182, 0.039, 0.148, 0.204) and (0.141, 0.030, 0.226, 0.082) for Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, respectively. Table 5 results for the R, RMSE, and MAE values establish the GEP model estimates of PRUP, PD, IU, and EI indicators had the highest R values and the lowest RMSE values. The average R values of the best models (GEP) for all selected social parameters equaled 0.942, 0.909, 0.910, 0.889, and 0.947 for Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, respectively. These results indicate the climatic characteristics of the continents influence the performance of the models. The models’ performances for Africa and Oceania associated with the type B dominant Koppen climate classification was the best. The models’ performances for Asia and America that have similar climatic classification were nearly equal. The average model performance for Europe in the type D climate classification was the poorest among the continents.Table 4 The characteristics of ANN (the number of neurons) and ANFIS (radii values) models corresponding to social indicators and continents.Full size tableTable 5 The results of soft computing optimal models corresponding to the testing period in the world’s continents.Full size tableFigure 4The characteristics of optimal ANN models; showing the number of neurons and activation functions of hidden and output layers.Full size imageFigure 5The characteristic of optimal ANFIS-SC model showing the radii values.Full size imageFigures 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 show the observed and estimated social parameters obtained with the soft-computing models during the test period in Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, respectively. Figure 11 compares the R, RMSE, and MAE values from the soft-computing models. The R values for soft-computing models are close to 1, with the quality relations being: RGEP  > RANFIS-SC  > RANN-LM for all social indicators. Figure 11 establishes that the ANFIS-SC model exceeded the ANN-LM models’ performance. Also, the GEP models had better performance than the ANFIS-SC and ANN-LM for estimating the proportion of rural to urban population (PRUP), population density (PD), internet users (IU), and education index (EI) parameters in Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania.Figure 6Observed and estimated social parameters during the testing period in Africa.Full size imageFigure 7Observed and estimated social parameters during the testing period in America.Full size imageFigure 8Observed and estimated social parameters during the testing period in Asia.Full size imageFigure 9Observed and estimated social parameters during the testing period in Europe.Full size imageFigure 10Observed and estimated social indicators during the testing period in Oceania.Full size imageFigure 11Comparison of R, RMSE and MAE values corresponding to the soft computing methods.Full size imageThe main advantage of the GEP over other soft computing methods (e.g., ANFIS and ANN) is in producing predictive equations. The equations obtained with the optimal models for the social indicators (i.e., the proportion of rural to urban population (PRUP), population density (PD), internet users (IU), and education index (EI) in Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania) are listed in Table 6. The equations that the GEP model discovers as a structure do not necessarily correspond to reality. The equations listed in Table 6 merely show the optimal equations extracted from the model after the evolution, for all indicators and in all basins (considering renewable water per capita as a decision variable).Table 6 Mathematical equations governing hydro-social indicators.Full size tableThe performance of the GEP models in estimating the social indicators in three ranges of values, namely, 20% of the maximum estimated values (20%max), 60% of median estimated values (60%mid or 20%min to 20%max), and 20% of minimum estimated values (20%min), during the test period for the proportion of rural to urban population (PRUP), population density (PD), internet users (IU) and the education index (EI) parameters of Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania are listed in Table 7. Table 7’s results indicate there is not a regular rule to determine the best-cited ranges performances. The education index and the population density have the lowest and highest R values among the other parameters in the three different ranges (20%max, 60%mid, and 20%min) in Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Therefore, the results indicate a strong pattern of association between the population density parameter and water resources status in all continents of the world.Table 7 The performance of GEP models with respect to selected ranges.Full size tableFigure 12 depicts the distribution of estimated data values of the social parameters (i = 1, 2, 3, 4) and their comparison through the continents. The box plots are a graphic display integrating multiple numerical relations. One approach to understanding the distribution or dispersion of data is through the box diagram, which is based on the “minimum,” “first quartile-Q1(0.25%)”, “median (0.50%)”, “third quartile-Q3(0.75%)” and “maximum” statistical indicators. Figure 12 shows Oceania and Africa exhibit the smallest and largest values of the rural to urban population, respectively. America has the lowest values of the first to the third quartile. The estimated population density value in Europe has the most values in the third quartile (0.75%). The median values of estimated internet users have the smallest and largest values in Africa and Europe, respectively. America has the lowest values of the first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum values associated with the estimated education index values among the continents.Figure 12Distribution of estimated data values of social indicators (Pi, i = 1, 2, …, 4).Full size imageThe summary of hydro-social equations performance is listed in Table 8, where it is seen the best models’, performances are such that PD  > PRUP  > EI  > IU, PD  > IU  > EI  > PRUP, PD  > IU  > PRUP  > EI, PD  > PRUP  > IU  > EI and PD  > EI  > IU  > PRUP for Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, respectively.Table 8 Summary of hydro-social equations performance.Full size tableThis paper’s results indicate the pattern of association between social parameters and water resources is complex. Renewable water per capita was estimated using social indicators PRUP, PD, IU, and EI based on gene expression programming. The results of GEP to estimate RWPC corresponding to the testing period in the world’s continents as listed in Table 9. The values of RMSE for optimal GEP models equaled 0.089, 0.058, 0.042, 0.049, and 0.036 for Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania, respectively. Figure 13 displays the observed and estimated RWPC parameter during the test period in the world’s continents. The equations obtained with the optimal models for the renewable water per capita in Africa, America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania are listed in Table 10. The fitted equations can be applied at variable spatial and temporal scales. The derived equations imply that water resources in Africa and Oceania are governed by the PRUP, PD, IU, and EI indicators. Also, the PRUP, PD, and IU indicators in Europe and PD and IU indicators in America and Asia have the most influence on their water resources status. The association between social parameters and water resources in all continents is variable. The linking of these social indicators with the per capita renewable water is a function of the countries’ cultural and economic conditions, thus bearing on the future management and policymaking across continents. This study’s results concerning hydro-social indicators are consistent with the findings by Forouzani et al.2, Carey et al.15, Lima et al.25, Pande et al.7, Diep et al.26, and Diaz et al.22.Table 9 The results of GEP estimating RWPC corresponding to the testing period in the world’s continents.Full size tableFigure 13Observed and estimated RWPC parameters during the test period in the world’s continents.Full size imageTable 10 Mathematical equations governing hydro-social indicators.Full size tableThis paper’s results establish the importance of examining the interactions between climate, the status of water resources, and social indicators. The state and social conditions of a country reflect the status of its water resources. Therefore, this study has shown how significant an impact the management and planning of a country can have on its water resources. Each successful water resources project rests on a successful social setting. More

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    The world’s scientific panel on biodiversity needs a bigger role

    EDITORIAL
    31 August 2021

    The world’s scientific panel on biodiversity needs a bigger role

    IPBES, the international panel of leading biodiversity researchers, should be consulted on how best to measure species loss.

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    A baby green sea turtle in Madagascar, one of the regions where the probability of widespread biodiversity loss is greatest.Credit: Alexis Rosenfeld/Getty

    For more than 30 years, the international community has tried and failed to find a path to slow down — and eventually reverse — worldwide declines in the richness of plant and animal species. Next year, it will have another chance. The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, recently delayed for the third time, is now slated to take place in person in Kunming, China, in April and May 2022.Biodiversity is fundamental to Earth’s life-support systems, and humans depend on the services that nature provides. In 2010, countries committed to slowing the overall rate of biodiversity loss by 2020. But just 6 out of the 20 targets that were agreed on that occasion — at COP 10 in Aichi, Japan — have been even partially met, notable among them a commitment to conserve 17% of the world’s land and inland waters.Ahead of the Kunming meeting, policymakers and scientists are discussing a new action plan, called the Global Biodiversity Framework, which they hope to agree next year. The latest draft (published in July; see go.nature.com/3kbvspd) includes a promise to conserve 30% of the world’s land and sea areas by 2030 and reiterates the need to meet earlier targets, including the provision of greater financial support to low-income countries to help them to protect their biodiversity.Missing linkResearchers around the world are advising on the plan, through the UN’s institutions and through universities and various scientific networks. But one piece of the puzzle is missing. In 2012, a host of governments established the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). It periodically reviews the literature and provides summaries of the latest knowledge. However, the countries organizing the COP are not involving IPBES in the action plan in the way that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been consulted for advice ahead of climate COPs. It is important that IPBES be asked, because policymakers are being presented with a range of ideas that would benefit from the systematic evaluation that a global scientific advisory body would bring.
    The world’s species are playing musical chairs: how will it end?
    For example, biodiversity terminology is often unfamiliar, and therefore challenging, for most policymakers. The word itself — defined by the biodiversity convention as the variety and variability of life on Earth, at the level of genes, species and ecosystems — is not commonly used, nor well understood beyond the scientific community. The magnitude of biodiversity’s value to the planet and to people, as well as the risks of losing it, are also not widely appreciated.Over the years, various teams of scientists have researched and offered ideas on how to communicate the state of biodiversity both accurately and in a way that is accessible and engages the wider public. Some are advocating a biodiversity equivalent of the 1.5 °C warming target, or of net-zero emissions. One suggestion, published last year, is for the international community to adopt a target for limiting species extinctions. The goal would be to keep extinctions of known species to below 20 per year globally for the next 100 years — a single headline number to represent biodiversity (M. D. A. Rounsevell et al. Science 368, 1193–1195; 2020).A focus on species extinctions as a proxy for biodiversity is not a new idea, and is controversial. However, the authors say that their intention is not to replace biodiversity’s many facets with only one number, but to communicate biodiversity in a way that would resonate with more people.Another group is proposing a composite index — a single score made up of measures of some of biodiversity’s main components, including the health of species and ecosystems, as well as the services that biodiversity provides to people, such as pollination and clean water (C. A. Soto-Navarro et al. Nature Sustain. https://doi.org/gmjs2f; 2021). This would be biodiversity’s equivalent of the UN Human Development Index — first published in 1990 — which amalgamates information on health, education and income into a single number and has been adopted worldwide as a measure of prosperity and well-being.
    Fewer than 20 extinctions a year: does the world need a single target for biodiversity?
    A third idea, published by the leaders of some of the world’s most influential conservation and environmental science organizations, is called Nature Positive (see go.nature.com/2ydk89n). Its authors are proposing that the UN’s many global environmental agreements should include three common targets: no net loss of nature from 2020 (meaning that although nature might continue to be degraded in some areas, this would be offset by conservation gains elsewhere); some recovery by 2030; and full recovery by 2050. At present, the UN agreements on biodiversity, stopping climate change and combating desertification all have their own processes, occasionally acting together, but more often operating independently. The goal is to get them to sign up to one set of principles.All of these ideas have advantages and risks, which is why they need to be systematically evaluated by researchers. That’s where IPBES’s role is crucial. IPBES comprises a broad community of researchers, and, importantly, it represents voices from under-represented low- and middle-income countries, as well as the world’s Indigenous peoples. The governments involved in organizing the Kunming COP should ask IPBES to evaluate the ideas being put forward for the next biodiversity action plan, so they can be confident that what they decide has the support of a consensus of researchers, particularly in more-biodiverse regions of the world. Although preparations for the Kunming COP are well under way, this could also happen after the COP.Biodiversity loss could be as serious for the planet — and for humanity — as climate change. World leaders have become skilled at organizing complex international meetings and making promises that they then fail to keep. The upcoming biodiversity COP risks being one more such event, which is why researchers offering solutions are right to feel frustrated. They should work with IPBES to review their ideas. A unified voice is powerful, and if scientists can present a united front, policymakers will have fewer excuses to continue with business as usual.

    Nature 597, 7-8 (2021)
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02339-3

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    Boost for Africa’s research must protect its biodiversity

    CORRESPONDENCE
    31 August 2021

    Boost for Africa’s research must protect its biodiversity

    Nils Chr. Stenseth

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    Sebsebe Demissew

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    Nils Chr. Stenseth

    University of Oslo, Norway.

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    Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.

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    We write on behalf of 209 scientists (see go.nature.com/3sa16p9) to endorse a new initiative by the African Research Universities Alliance and the Guild of European Research-Intensive Universities (see go.nature.com/3b364hj). This calls for greater investment by the African Union and the European Union in Africa’s universities, to help them address global challenges such as public health, climate change and good governance. We strongly encourage expansion of the initiative to encompass environmental and biodiversity issues that are crucial to the continent’s future.Safeguarding Africa’s extraordinary natural resources and biodiversity — the backbone of much of its economy and livelihood — demands a new generation of African scientists trained in environmental sciences. Experts are needed in conservation science and environmental economics, as well as in the collection, curation and analysis of biological data.As Julius Nyerere, the former president of Tanzania, put it 60 years ago in a speech now known as the Arusha Manifesto: “The conservation of wildlife and wild places calls for specialist knowledge, trained manpower and money, and we look to other nations to co-operate with us in this important task — the success or failure of which not only affects the continent of Africa but the rest of the world as well.”

    Nature 597, 31 (2021)
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02356-2

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    The authors declare no competing interests.

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    Limited resilience of the soil microbiome to mechanical compaction within four growing seasons of agricultural management

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    Effects of water and nitrogen coupling on the photosynthetic characteristics, yield, and quality of Isatis indigotica

    Photosynthetic characteristicsWater and nitrogen coupling treatment had a significant effect on the photosynthetic characteristics (Fig. 1). Generally, the net photosynthetic rates of the treatments were in the following order: CK, W1N1, W1N3, W3N1, W3N3, W2N1, W1N2, W3N2, W2N3, and W2N2. The treatments with low water and low nitrogen had significantly lower net photosynthetic rates than W2N2. The stomatal conductance and transpiration rate changed in similar patterns. The net photosynthetic rate showed a unimodal trend with the increase of nitrogen application at the same irrigation level. Under the same nitrogen application level, the net photosynthetic rate increased first and then decreased slowly with the increase of irrigation amount, with the highest photosynthetic rates in the order of W2  > W3  > W1. The net photosynthetic rate was the highest, with a mean value was 13.87 μmol m−2 s−1, in treatment W2N2. The results showed that severe water stress and excessive nitrogen were not conducive to the absorption and utilization of water and nutrients by crop roots, which led to the decrease of the photosynthetic rate. The effect of water and nitrogen treatment on the intercellular CO2 concentration was significant (Fig. 1). Under the condition of excessive water or nitrogen, the photosynthesis of Isatis indigotica decreased, and the intercellular CO2 concentration showed a trend opposite to that of the net photosynthetic rate.Compared with N, P, and K deficiency treatments, water–N coupling could increase the Pn of crops, which was the same as that of other fruit trees and vegetables13. Accumulated photoassimilates in the third internode of the upper part of the main stems, as well as in the flag leaf sheath, are mobilized in a higher proportion and can contribute to grain filling in rice plants subjected to water stress in the tillering phase14. The Pn, Gs, and Tr of maize leaves at the seedling stage decreased significantly, while the Ci increased significantly when the nitrogen application rate was low15.The experiments with Isatis indigotica demonstrate that the Pn, Gs, and Tr under the same irrigation level first increased and then decreased with the increase of the nitrogen application rate. The net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, and stomatal conductance of Isatis indigotica were improved by rational nitrogen application. Studies have reported similar findings in Isatis indigotica; with the decrease of N level, the net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, and stomatal conductance of leaves gradually decreased, while the intercellular CO2 concentration increased16,17. Under reasonable water and nitrogen coordination conditions, the synergistic effect of water and nitrogen increased, which effectively promoted the photosynthesis of Isatis indigotica. Under the condition of too much nitrogen or too little water, the antagonism of water and nitrogen was obvious, and the photosynthesis of Isatis indigotica was inhibited to a certain extent.Yield and water use efficiencyThe Isatis indigotica yield values presented are the average of two consecutive years of water–nitrogen trials (Fig. 2). The I. indigotica yields differed significantly between the water–nitrogen treatments; the W2N2 and W2N3 treatments had the highest yields at 7277.5 and 6820.5 kg hm−2, respectively. The lowest yield of 3264.5 kg hm−2 was recorded in the control treatment. The yields of all treatments were significantly higher than that of the control treatment. The yields of the W2N2 and W2N3 treatments were significantly higher than those of the W1N1 and the W3N1 treatments. With the increase of the nitrogen application rate, the yield first increased and then decreased under the same irrigation conditions.The water use efficiency values of Isatis indigotica presented are the average of 2 consecutive years of water–nitrogen trials (Fig. 2). The water use efficiency of Isatis indigotica differed significantly between the water–nitrogen treatments; the W1N2 and W2N2 treatments had the highest yields at 20.78 and 19.63 kg mm−1 hm−2, respectively. The lowest yield of 13.65 kg mm−1 hm−2 was recorded in the W3N1 treatment. The water use efficiency values of the W1N2 and W2N2 treatments were significantly higher than that of the W3N3 treatment, which was the treatment with excess water and nitrogen fertilizer. The water use efficiency decreased with the increase of irrigation under the same nitrogen application conditions. The water use efficiency first increased and then decreased with the increase in nitrogen application rate under the same irrigation conditions. The W2N2 treatment had the highest yield and water use efficiency. Therefore, the water–nitrogen coupling mode of medium water and medium nitrogen application achieved the highest yield and effectively saved water. This was mainly due to the moderate water and nitrogen to promote the photosynthesis of Isatis indigotica and lead to more dry matter accumulation, so as to increase the yield.Generally, appropriate water deficits can improve crop yield and water use efficiency18,19, and rational fertilization can increase crop yield, such as in fruit trees and vegetables20,21,22. The yield increase in the current experiment was probably related to reasonable water stress and reasonable nitrogen application; the W2N2 treatment had the highest yield and water use efficiency. However, excessive water and nitrogen reduced the yield and water use efficiency of Isatis indigotica. This was consistent with recent research reports23,24. Compared with the local flooding irrigation and excessive nitrogen fertilizer mode, the W2N2 treatment with moderate water and nitrogen application not only obtained a high yield but also significantly improved the water use efficiency. This method could reduce the effect of excessive water and fertilizer application on soil productivity and would be a better water and nitrogen management model for local Isatis indigotica production.QualityThe Isatis indigotica quality values presented are the average of two consecutive years of water–nitrogen trials (Fig. 3). These quality indicators mainly include the following content indicators: indigo, indirubin, (R, S)-goitrin, and polysaccharides. The Isatis indigotica quality indicators differed significantly between the water–nitrogen treatments. The CK treatment had the highest values of all quality indicators. Each quality indicator decreased gradually with the increase of water content under the same nitrogen application conditions. Each quality indicator decreased gradually with the increase of nitrogen application under the same water conditions. The (R, S)-goitrin content of the W2N2 treatment decreased by 6.5% compared with CK and by 3.9% compared with the W1N1 treatment.Water is the medium for improving crop quality. Generally, the crop quality was improved by a suitable water deficit25,26,27 and reasonable fertilization28,29,30. The quality of Isatis indigotica in the current experiment increased gradually with the decrease of water. The water deficit treatment increased the content of effective components and improved the quality of Isatis indigotica. The content of the effective components in all treatments reached the pharmacopoeia standard12. The quality indicator values of each treatment in the current experiment were significantly lower than those of the CK treatment, but there was little difference in the quality indicator values between each treatment. Moreover, the yield of the control treatment was much lower than that of other treatments. Therefore, the effective quality content of the control treatment was lower than other treatments. Excessive water and nitrogen inputs were not conducive to quality, which was not consistent with recent research reports31. Generally, the water-nitrogen coupling type of W2N60 was antagonism basing on the average yield of winter wheat in the 10 years32. Some scholars have studied the irrigation of jujube that WUE and ANUE of jujube cannot reach the maximum at the same time. Different ratio of water and nitrogen will produce coupling and antagonism33. The results showed that total N applications over 200 kg ha−1 did not increase yield or quality. Water deficit treatment could be increased the content of effective components and improve the quality of Isatis indigotica. Due to the high evaporation, moderate water stress and effective use of nitrogen fertilizer, the active components of Isatis indigotica were easier to accumulate in its roots. The synergistic effect of water and nitrogen will lead to the accumulation of active components in Isatis indigotica. More

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