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Climate change has increased water temperature and altered wind-driven water movements in aquatic systems1,2. This applies not only to the mean conditions3,4, but also to the frequency of extreme events (i.e., near the upper ends of the range of observed values5,  > 80th percentile). For example, high air temperature or powerful winds5,6,7,8,9 has affected the behaviour of surface gravity waves10. Understanding the changes in wind and wave climate provides insight into the prediction and management of climate change impacts related to coastal dynamics, such as coastal erosion and sediment budgets, water motions, and biological responses6,11,12. Several studies on the impacts of climate change on oceanic waves12,13,14,15 have been undertaken, including a recent study16 that shows a 0.41% annual increase in global wave power (WP; the transport of energy by waves, which represents the temporal variations of energy transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean surface motion over cumulative periods of time16,17 (Eq. 2) due to stronger winds caused by increases in sea surface temperature. The oceanic wave climate also responds to global atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), in which sea surface temperature modifies wind patterns and storm cyclogenesis12,18,19,20. A systematic long-term assessment of climate warming impacts on waves in lakes remains to be undertaken, but should include winds, which are one of the principal sources of mechanical energy for lake circulation and interbasin coupling (e.g., exchange)21,22,23,24.
The Laurentian Great Lakes, which consist of lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario (Fig. 1a), are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth; they contain 21% of the world’s volume of fresh surface water. These lakes have been affected by climate change in several ways including increased surface water temperature, longer summer stratification related hypoxia (i.e., dissolved oxygen [DO] concentrations  0.05); all the black bars are significant (i.e., p  8 m s−1) from the south and southwest that are the common wind directions over the Great Lakes23, tilt the thermocline upward in the western and northern part of the central basin due to Ekman transport of surface water southward22,38,42,43,44,45. As this hypolimnetic water upwells into shallower depths it can be transported counter clockwise by the alongshore surface currents moving to the west32. If there is a calm period following the high winds, the upwelled water in the northwestern part of the central basin will flow southward because of the pressure gradient and also in a clockwise direction (to the west) because of the Coriolis effect, and so will intrude into the western basin (i.e., a geostrophic flow) opposite to the hydraulic flow from the Detroit River (Fig. 1c)22,32,46. This causes the rapid (on the order of hours) formation of a thermocline within the northeastern portion of the western basin (Pelee Passage) due to the intrusion of low temperature bottom water22,42, which can also be hypoxic22 or anoxic (i.e., DO (approx) 0) at the sediment surface22 and contain high soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations (SRP; 0.02–0.05 mg L−1)47,48,49. Low values of sediment oxygen uptake are observed during these events in the western basin due to stratification and weak bottom shear and turbulence, which results in thicker diffusive sublayer22.
Interbasin exchange has been observed in lakes with multiple basins elsewhere (e.g., Lake Geneva50, Nechako Reservoir51) as well as in the Great Lakes region (e.g., Muskegon Bay52, Green Bay53, Kempenfelt Bay54, Pere Marquette River55). In Lake Michigan, for example, high winds can lead to coastal upwelling into Muskegon Lake causing episodic hypoxia52. In case of Lake Erie, interbasin exchange was identified as the dominant cause (63%) of hypoxia in the northeastern portion of the western basin during biweekly fishing trawls in August over the past 30 years22. However, there are no long-term continuous water quality observations to assess the occurrence and historic trends in these hypoxic events. Extreme winds prevailing from upwelling favourable directions (i.e., from the south and southwest) can generate strong surface waves and water currents through momentum flux at the air–water interface. Therefore, WP can be used as an indicator or proxy (but not the cause) of interbasin exchange. Here, we examine the historical trends in water temperature, winds and resultant waves in the context of climate change in the summer in the Great Lakes (Fig. 1a) with an emphasis on the western basin of Lake Erie (Fig. 1b). We examine data for August, which is the month when hypoxia is most likely to occur in dimictic north temperate lakes before the fall turnover, and when large HAB have been observed in the western basin of Lake Erie. August is also the time when the spatial extent of hypoxia in the central basin is the largest and when the aforementioned upwelling into the western basin is likely to occur22,40,56. The data examined are from buoys with the longest historical records (Fig. 1a and Table S1). We examine winds from the south and southwest directions, which are the common wind directions over the Great Lakes during August, and which are favourable for upwelling into the western basin of Lake Erie. The results show that the WP in Great Lakes has increased in the past 40 years. A pattern in WP (a proxy for hypoxic upwelling events into the western basin of Lake Erie) has also increased in frequency over this time, which has implications for the water quality (e.g., dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus) of the lake. The increased frequency of interbasin upwelling was confirmed using historical records of lake bottom water temperature (LBT), as well as dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus concentrations. This is the first time that WP has been identified as an indicator of climate change-driven biogeochemical responses in lakes.
Long-term trends in WP and LST in the Great Lakes
First, we investigate the historical trends in average lake surface temperature (LST), wind, and waves in the Great Lakes during August. Results show that LST and LSTw (hereinafter subscript ”w” is used to denote the variables measured during upwelling favourable winds from 180° to 270°, clockwise from north) have both increased significantly (p  0.2% year−1) since 1980, although lower trends were observed in lake Erie and Michigan (Figs. S1–S5 ((a) and (b)) and Table S1). These changes in the LST correspond to a warming trend in air temperature (Tair); the average Tair over the Great Lakes increased significantly by ~ 0.4 (pm) 0.2 ((pm) standard error) oC decade−1 since 1980 (Fig. S6a,b). There was an associated significant increase in wind speed (W) over the Great Lakes during August (Ww) of ~ 0.4 (pm) 0.1 m s−1 decade−1 for winds from the south and southwest (Figs. S1–S5 ((c) and (d)) and Table S1). Consequently, the wind stress associated with wind from the south and southwest over the water surface of the Great Lakes (({tau }_{w}=0.0012{rho }_{air}{W}_{w}^{2}), where ({rho }_{air})=1.22 kg m−3 is the density of air57, and the wind speed is measured 10 m above the water) increased significantly by 0.006 (pm) 0.002 Pa decade−1 during August (3.0 (pm) 0.9% year−1; Figs. S1–S5 ((e) and (f)) and Table S1).
The effects of increased wind stress can also be seen in wave power, which is a function of the square of significant wave height (the mean value of the largest third of the wave heights during typically 1 h, SWH) and the wave period (({T}_{p}); i.e., (WP propto {{T}_{p} times SWH}^{2})); and changes in wind are reflected in wave power ((WP propto {W}^{2.4}) and (propto {W}^{5}) for developing and fully developed waves, respectively; see “Materials and methods”). The average SWH and SWHw in the Great Lakes during August have increased significantly by 0.03 (pm) 0.02 and 0.04 (pm) 0.03 m decade−1, respectively (i.e., ~ 1.0 (pm) 0.8% and ~ 1.7 (pm) 1.5% year−1, respectively), and this is largely driven by the increase in the frequency of extreme surface winds58 (Figs. S1–S5g and h; WP responds to changes in mean values, but it is more sensitive to extreme events because WP (propto { SWH}^{2})16). Consequently, the average WP and WPw in the Great Lakes during August have increased by ~ 0.04 (pm) 0.02 and ~ 0.06 (pm) 0.03 kW m−1 decade−1, respectively (i.e., ~ 1.0 (pm) 0.6% and ~ 2.0 (pm) 0.9% year−1, respectively; Fig. 2). In Lake Erie, WPw during August increased significantly by 0.02 (pm) 0.01 kW m−1 decade−1 (1.4 (pm) 0.2% year−1; Fig. 2 and Table S1; the increasing trend in WP = 0.02 (pm) 0.02 or 0.5 (pm) 0.1% was not statistically significant). It is relevant to note that these results are based on observations from a single buoy per lake; the one with the longest available data records (Fig. 1a and Table S2). However, the wind records and historical wave trends between buoys Sta. NDBC 45005 and Port Stanley in Lake Erie (Fig. 1a), which are ~ 130 km apart, are consistent based on the available records. Specifically, wind speed and direction in 2018 have Pearson correlation coefficients, r  > 0.6 (Fig. S7a,b, respectively); Ww and WPw are also correlated with r = 0.51 and 0.67, respectively, during August of 1990–2018 and the buoys show similar temporal increases in WPw (~ 0.025 (pm) 0.02 and 0.02 ± 0.01 kW m−1 decade−1 in Port Stanley and Sta. NDBC 45005, respectively). The trends in historical LSTw and WPw are related statistically (i.e., higher mutual information; Fig. S8) similar to the relationship described for global sea surface temperature and oceanic WP used as an indicator of climate change16.
Figure 2

Historical patterns in wave power in Great Lakes. 10 year moving average of wave power (WP) during the August (a) and during August with the wind from south and southwest and (WPw; b). The dashed lines show the linear regression (statistical results provided in Table S1).

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The long-term variations in WP and LST may be related to the global atmospheric phenomena. The LSTw anomaly in all the lakes show an increasing trend beginning in 1995 (Fig. S9a), which corresponds to the switch from the negative mode of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the positive mode (associated with increased tropical cyclone activity and stronger westerly winds) between the 1980s and the early 2000s (Fig. S9b)16. Both the WPw and LSTw anomaly are positively correlated with the AMO (r ~ 0.50 and ~ 0.55, respectively, since 1990). Similar to global oceanic wave power16, peaks in WPw in the Great Lakes are associated with strong El Niño years (i.e., Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (MEI) greater than 1.5; Fig. S9c,d), which can contribute to the enhanced wind energy due to increased cyclonic events16. MEI and WPw in Great Lakes are generally correlated by r  > 0.45 since 1990, however, the impacts of global atmospheric events on temperature and water dynamics of Great Lakes requires further study.
Episodic hypoxic upwelling events in the western basin of Lake Erie
We used historical records (Table S2) of long-term near-bottom water temperature (1998–2018) and dissolved oxygen (2007–2018) in the northeastern portion of the western basin of Lake Erie as well as wave observations in the western portion of the central basin (1980–2018 in Sta. NDBC 45005, Fig. 1) in August to determine the frequency of hypoxic upwelling events and the impacts of these events on the total phosphorus concentration in the northeast portion of the western basin. These analyses do not include the local hypoxia due to periods of calm and warm atmospheric conditions that may occur annually31 and, which are different than episodic upwelling events. Intrusion of cold hypoxic hypolimnetic water from the central basin into the western basin, following high winds from upwelling favourable directions, can cause a sudden drop (on the order of hours) in LBT and dissolved oxygen (DO) when the hypolimnetic water in the central basin is hypoxic22. The LBT time series in the western basin from 2017 to 2018 show that LBT decreased more than 3 °C in less than 12 h during upwelling events; e.g., 9–16, 18–22 and 26–31 August 2018 at Sta E (Fig. 3b) and 24–29 August 2017 at Leamington and Sta E (Fig. S10b). The records of LBT measured by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) in August in Leamington Ontario between 1998 and 2018 detected 23 events of intrusion of cold water, which are consistent with upwelling (the blue symbols in Fig. 4a).
Figure 3

Wave power and bottom water temperature during August 2018 in the western basin of Lake Erie. (a) Time series of wave power (WP; black line), wave period (Tp; magenta), and significant wave height (SWH; blue) recorded at Sta. NDBC 45005. (b) Time series of dissolved oxygen (DO; red) and water temperature (LBT; blue dashed-line) in Sta. E at 1 m above the bed and bottom water temperature in Leamington (blue solid-line) in August 2018. The red triangles represent the observed hypoxic events in the western basin of Lake Erie. The wave power of the waves from south and southwest (i.e., favourable for upwelling) are positive preceding upwelling.

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Figure 4

Number of hypoxic upwelling events in the western basin. (a) The number of hypoxic upwelling events based on patterns in wave power at Sta. NDBC 45005 (dark grey: average WPw  > 0.44 kW m−1, light grey: 0.37  8 m s−1 from similar directions, which corresponds to the ~ 80th percentile of wind speeds and is greater than the sum of the average and standard deviation of the wind speed (~ 6 and 2 m s−1, respectively). This wind threshold is consistent with Rao et al.’s44 wind speed that led to upwelling, which resulted in a fish kill along the north shore of the central basin in 2012.
We used a least-square method to find a wave pattern (i.e., wave direction, duration, and power) that could be applied to predict the number of upwelling events that could be hypoxic between 1998 and 2018 based on LBT observations. A rapid decrease in the LBT at both Sta E and Leamington (12 km vs. 20 km from the Pelee Passage, respectively) occurred during events in which the average WP was  > 0.44 kW m−1 (i.e., 22–24 August 2017; Fig. S10a,b). The model predicted 25 upwelling events at Leamington (dark bars in Fig. 4a) of which 23 were observed (as stated above; no data were available for 2012; blue circles in Fig. 4a) for waves from south and southwest that lasted for at least 15 h with an average wave power greater than 0.37 kW m−1. Of the 23 observed events, the model predicted 21 events providing a root mean square error [RMSE] of 0.20 events. We validated the model predictions using the biweekly DO measurements from MNRF cruises between 2007 and 2018, which happened to sample 17 of the 23 observed events of low LBT. We note, however, that two hypoxic upwelling events were also recorded outside the study period, i.e., early September; this supports the study’s focus on August. Hypoxic conditions (DO  1.6 events year−1 in 2018 based on a 10-year moving average. Specifically, 21 of 49 (~ 43%) upwelling events in the last four decades have occurred in the past 10 years. Thirty-two of these were strong events with WP  > 0.44 kW m−1, 15 of which (~ 47%) occurred after 2009. Interestingly, this pattern in wave power (i.e., waves from south and southwest that last for  > 15 h with an average WP  > 0.37 kW m−1 from the historical data) was also observed in August 1980 (Fig. 4a), when the LBT dropped following rapid formation of a thermocline, which at the time was attributed to the upwelling of hypolimnetic water from the central basin40,42. These results indicate that an increase in extreme winds from south and southwest during August, over the last four decades, has resulted in more frequent upwelling from the central basin into the western basin and consequently a greater number of episodic hypoxic events in that part of Lake Erie.
The effect of upwelling on phosphorus concentrations was examined through an analysis of the water column-average total phosphorus (TP) observations from biweekly cruises conducted by the MNRF at station W5 (Fig. 1b). We examined the available data recorded between 15 July and 15 September from 2000 to 2018 (3–5 records year−1; 66 observations in total), which is a period in which linear patterns in TP vs. sampling date were not evident (p  >   > 0.05). The z-score (standard deviate) was determined for the data within a given year (({mathrm{Z}}_{mathrm{TP}}=left(mathrm{TP}-{mathrm{TP}}_{mathrm{mean}}right)/mathrm{SD}), where ({mathrm{TP}}_{mathrm{mean}}) is the annual average of TP and SD is the standard deviation). Positive ({mathrm{Z}}_{mathrm{TP}}) values (i.e., (mathrm{TP} >{mathrm{TP}}_{mathrm{mean}})) were observed in 11 cases in which the sampling occurred  1) observed during 5 August–8 September sampling (black solid circles in Fig. 4b). Statistical comparison revealed that the average ({mathrm{Z}}_{mathrm{TP}}) was significantly higher during upwelling vs. non-upwelling samples (i.e., 0.95 ± 0.18, n = 11 vs. − 0.26 ± 0.12, n = 25; ANOVA F1,34 = 29.64, p  More

Many cities in China, such as Xi’an (pictured), have experienced rapid growth in the past few decades.Credit: Xinhua/Shutterstock

On 28 January 2020, a team of Chinese conservation scientists distributed a questionnaire across social-media platforms, asking Chinese citizens how they felt about proposed legislation that would ban the consumption and trade of wildlife in the country.
It was an apposite moment: the questionnaire hit social-media platforms such as WeChat and Weibo just days after China had been forced to close its major cities to prevent the spread of a disease that scientists suspected was transferred to humans from an animal species at a market in Wuhan.
More than 90% of the 74,070 respondents were in favour of a complete ban on wildlife trade — and, a month later, the central government came to the same conclusion and legislated to that effect. Researchers are increasingly studying the impact of these policies, and the country’s biodiversity. But big questions remain about whether China will deliver on its growing list of environmental commitments.

Bin Zhao, an ecologist at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, says that, since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, people in urban areas have been paying more attention to biodiversity than ever before. “People realized that contact with wild animals could lead to an outbreak of an epidemic, even in urban areas. This not only enhanced people’s understanding of biodiversity, but also promoted the idea that wildlife-protection law needed to be improved,” says Zhao.
It came at a time when China was already committed to changing its approach to ecological protection, he says. In 2018, China amended its constitution to include the goal of becoming an ‘ecological civilization’. In the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2017, economic development could no longer be at the expense of the environment.
Multiple environmentally friendly policies have already been announced, such as the introduction of an ‘ecological red line’ policy to protect more of the Chinese mainland from development (see ‘Protected land’); a new network of national parks; stricter supervision of conservation; and a streamlining of environmental-oversight agencies — all to meet a government target of making the country’s environment ‘beautiful’ by 2035.

Sources: UN/Xinhua/OECD

Big cities, few controls
In 1950, about only 13% of China’s population lived in cities. But since the 1980s, the country’s cities have grown rapidly as the engines of its economic growth (see ‘Urban population’). Millions left homes in rural areas to forge more prosperous lives in growing and newly built cities. Government policies, aimed at bolstering the economy, helped to encourage close to two-thirds of China’s population to move to these new urban areas, and the nation continues to have one of the world’s fastest growing urban populations. This has put intense pressure on the country’s ecology.

Sources: UN/Xinhua/OECD

“From an economic perspective, our ecosystems and environment have historically been considered to be worthless,” says Zhao. China’s natural resources, such as its wetlands, forests and water sources, haven’t received the same level of care from authorities as targets for economic growth, he says (see ‘Vegetation change’).

Sources: UN/Xinhua/OECD

As urban areas grow, there are direct and indirect impacts on ecological systems, according to Rob McDonald, who researches the impact and dependencies of cities on the natural world at The Nature Conservancy in Washington DC.
Land is repurposed for development, and natural resources are needed to construct buildings and provide food and water for city dwellers, he says. These changes can lead to environmental problems, such as water and air pollution, insufficient water availability and deforestation much farther afield than in urban areas themselves.
China’s government has been open about its commitment to tackling these problems, says Alice Hughes, a zoologist at the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden in Menglun town, China. In May 2021, China will host the fifteenth United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, also known as COP 15, in Kunming, where 200 countries will meet to sign off on a legally binding set of global targets to protect the world’s biodiversity. The country has already contributed to some broader environmental targets, including being carbon neutral by 2060.
China has had some success, most notably in reducing air pollution. For example, in 2017, the amount of fine particulate matter in Beijing’s air dropped by just under 40% from the level in 2013, the year when national targets were launched.
But at a press conference to discuss China’s progress on ecological and environmental protection, Cui Shuhong, an official at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said the country has much more to do to alleviate the fundamental pressures placed on its natural resources by economic development.
Zhengguang Zhu, an environmental officer at China’s National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, is familiar with preparations for COP 15: there are multiple working groups operating within the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are each responsible for different aspects of the event, from logistics to setting targets for improvements to China’s environment.

Live turtles on display at a wildlife market in Shanghai, China, in August 2020. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government issued a policy banning wildlife trade for food, but trade of exotic animals as pets still continues.Credit: Ales Plavevski/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

These working groups ask China’s public bodies, such as the ministry of agriculture, to offer their opinions on what the country feels should be included in the final roadmap for the coming decade.
“I think the meeting will show that China has done its homework and is willing to be a good host. But leadership is not just about hospitality. It’s about having an ambitious framework that enables change, and I think we’ve got a long way to go before that happens,” says Zhu.
Behaviour change
Conservation researcher Tien Ming Lee, based at the Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China, says scientists and politicians are currently focused on finding better ways to protect Chinese ecosystems while continuing the country’s urban economic growth.
His research team works across a range of projects, all focused on finding ways to prompt people to act differently and sustainably. For example, he is currently part of a 4-year, €10-million (US$12 million) project, mainly funded by the European Union, called Partners against Wildlife Crime. The project, which began in January 2019, hopes to disrupt the illicit supply chains through which exotic animals and plants, specifically tigers (Panthera tigris), Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), Siamese rosewood (Dalbergia cochinchinensis) and freshwater turtles, are traded throughout Cambodia, China, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
As part of this project, Lee’s team and Lishu Li at the Wildlife Conservation Society China Counter Wildlife Trafficking Program are developing marketing materials to change the buying habits of urban Chinese consumers by attempting to dissuade them from illegal acts, such as buying tiger bone or elephant skin online for jewellery and traditional medicine, or keeping endangered freshwater turtles as pets. Lee says the materials have been developed with behavioural-science techniques: they aim to appeal to consumers’ desire to be seen to act in a conscientious manner.

Police patrol the wetlands of the Yellow River Estuary ecotourism area near Dongying City, China.Credit: Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty

Lee has also been part of a research project that looked at how trade agreements that stem from the country’s international Belt and Road economic initiative, an infrastructure project that aims to link trade across Europe, Asia and Africa to China, could lead to a greater demand for traditional Chinese medicine across the world. The plant, animal and fungal products used in these practises are often sourced from the wild, which might exacerbate the illegal and unsustainable trade of those species, he says.
His research, a collaboration with Amy Hinsley, a conservation biologist at the University of Oxford, UK, concluded that there was a clear, urgent need for China to introduce carefully managed supply chains and ensure that rural farmers have resources for sustainable farming.
During her four-decade career, Lu Zhi, a conservation biologist at Peking University in Beijing, has seen a shift in her field’s focus. It moved from observing animals in their natural habitats and coming up with ways to protect them from human activity to observing human behaviour: studying what can be done to make people’s lives more ecologically sustainable.
In 2017, Zhi’s Shanshui Conservation Center, a non-governmental organization she founded in 2007 to develop community-based conservation projects, began working with herdsmen in Qinghai province on the Tibetan Plateau. The team wanted to help them to develop livelihoods from conservation activities in an underdeveloped, highly biodiverse area of China. The villagers learnt how to patrol and monitor wildlife, and how to act as guides for tourists interested in animal watching — including for the elusive and endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Similar projects have been rolled out in 42 villages in western China.
Zhi admits that such small projects are certainly not enough to bring the paradigm shift needed to safeguard the country’s vulnerable ecosystems. Government intervention has proved to be effective in tackling the larger issues, such as air and water pollution, she says. But “it’s not fair to ask people in rural areas not to develop their lives for the sake of wildlife, while others live in prosperous cities. We need alternative solutions.” More

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The Sierra de Manantlán biosphere reserve in Mexico is a source of clean water for urban residents in nearby cities.Credit: Adriana Margarita Larios Arellano/Shutterstock

Sierra de Manantlán is a 140,000-hectare biosphere reserve in west central Mexico. It is home to 3,000 plant species and a forest whose soils and limestone mountains enable purified water to reach the nearby town of Colima.
Twenty years ago, researchers at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico proposed that Colima should consider paying to use the forest’s clean water, and that the money could go to supporting the biosphere reserve’s inhabitants.
The 30,000 people who lived in the forest were poor and in ill health. Unemployment was high, and there were few schools or medical clinics. But the absence of buildings, piped water and electric power had an unintended consequence: it was keeping the forest intact. In return for looking after nature, the researchers argued, the people of Sierra de Manantlán should be compensated, and the funds used for education, health care and employment training. Although not a new idea for Mexico, it was rejected by the city’s authorities. The concept that a forest ecosystem had monetary value — and that its custodians could be compensated — was controversial and much misunderstood.

Last week, however, countries took a giant step towards enabling public authorities to put a value on their environment. At its annual meeting, the United Nations Statistical Commission — whose members are responsible for setting and verifying standards for official statistics in their countries — laid out a set of principles for measuring ecosystem health and calculating a monetary value. These principles, known as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA), are set to be adopted by many countries on 11 March.
The principles were agreed after a 3-year writing and review process that involved 100 experts and 500 reviewers from various disciplines and countries. Once adopted, they will give national statisticians an internationally agreed rule book. It will provide a template for payments for ecosystem services — such as those once proposed for Colima — and an official benchmark against which the condition of ecosystems can be judged by policymakers and researchers over time.
The decision didn’t go as far as it might have done. The overwhelming majority of participating countries — led by Brazil, Colombia, India, Mexico and South Africa, among others — wanted the new rules to be designated as a statistical standard. These countries, rich in biodiversity, want to get on with valuing their natural systems, partly so that any ecological losses can be compared with potential gains from economic development. The designation of a statistical standard would also have enabled statistics offices to access public and international funding to carry out what would be regarded as a core part of their work, and not something voluntary or non-essential.
But the United States and a number of European Union countries objected. This was partly on the grounds that there is still much debate over valuation methodology, meaning that it is too soon to use ‘standard’ as a label. This setback was unfortunate: participating countries could have adopted the label while creating a system for revision and refinement, ensuring that the new standard could continue to be improved. Fortunately, the meeting’s attendees chose the next best thing — calling the rules “internationally recognized statistical principles and recommendations”.

The objections raised are a reminder that opinions on setting monetary values for nature are deeply held, with persuasive arguments on all sides. Some argue that nature is too valuable to be regarded in the same way as a commodity, and belongs to all. Valuation in the economic sense suggests that someone has ownership rights — but ecosystem services are rarely, if ever, ‘owned’ by anyone. The new principles do take this into account.
The record of the statisticians’ meeting shows that much debate remains on how to value something that isn’t bought and sold in a conventional way. But at the same time, this is an active area of research. Many studies have been captured in a landmark report, The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, published last month by the UK Treasury. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services is also conducting a review of the concept of valuation, which will include additional perspectives from the humanities, and voices from under-represented communities, such as Indigenous peoples.
The debates will continue, but agreement between the world’s statisticians is nevertheless an important step. It means, for example, that those wishing to compensate low-income and marginalized communities for protecting nature — such as the communities in Sierra de Manantlán — now have an internationally agreed template to work from. And policymakers will have to contend with the heads of statistics agencies if they object. UN chief economist Elliot Harris rightly called the new principles a game changer. “The economy needs a bailout, but so does nature,” he said. “What we measure, we value, and what we value, we manage.” Momentum on valuing ecosystem services is now unstoppable, and that is a good thing. More