Resources

Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A. & Bhakta Shrestha, A. (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People (Springer, 2019).Jain, S. K., Agarwal, P. K. & Singh, V. P. in Hydrology and Water Resources of India (eds Jain, S.K. et al.) 473–511 (Springer, 2007).Biemans, H., Siderius, C., Mishra, A. & Ahmad, B. Crop-specific seasonal estimates of irrigation-water demand in South Asia. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 1971–1982 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Farinotti, D. et al. A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth. Nat. Geosci. 12, 168–173 (2019).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 587–592 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Khanal, S. et al. Variable 21st century climate change response for rivers in High Mountain Asia at seasonal to decadal time scales. Water Resour. Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029266 (2021).Immerzeel, W. W. et al. Importance and vulnerability of the world’ s water towers. Nature 577, 364–369 (2019).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Viviroli, D., Kummu, M., Meybeck, M., Kallio, M. & Wada, Y. Increasing dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources. Nat. Sustain. 3, 917–928 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nie, Y. et al. Glacial change and hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00124-w (2021).Biemans, H. et al. Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Nat. Sustain. 2, 594–601 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M. F. P. & van Beek, L. P. H. Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint. Nature 488, 197–200 (2012).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Döll, P., Schmied, H. M., Shuh, C., Portmann, F. T. & Eicker, A. Global-scale assessment of groundwater depletion and related groundwater abstractions: combining hydrological modeling with information from well observations and GRACE satellites. Water Resour. Res. 50, 5698–5720 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rodell, M., Velicogna, I. & Famiglietti, J. S. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460, 999–1002 (2009).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Pepin, N. et al. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 424–430 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Turner, A. G. & Annamalai, H. Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 587–595 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kirby, M., Mainuddin, M., Khaliq, T. & Cheema, M. Agricultural production, water use and food availability in Pakistan: historical trends, and projections to 2050. Agric. Water 179, 34–46 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
De Stefano, L., Petersen-Perlman, J. D., Sproles, E. A., Eynard, J. & Wolf, A. T. Assessment of transboundary river basins for potential hydro-political tensions. Glob. Environ. Change 45, 35–46 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F. & Immerzeel, W. W. Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878 (2017).Rounce, D. R., Hock, R. & Shean, D. E. Glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia through 2100 using the open-source Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM). Front. Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00331 (2020).Hugonnet, R. et al. Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century. Nature 592, 726–731 (2021).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Huss, M. & Hock, R. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x (2018).Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Stigter, E. E., Yao, T. & Immerzeel, W. W. Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x (2021).Lutz, A. F. et al. South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Reg. Environ. Change 19, 833–847 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pritchard, H. D. Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress. Nature 569, 649–654 (2019).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Wijngaard, R. R. et al. Future changes in hydro-climatogical extremes in the upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins. PLoS ONE 12, e0190224 (2017).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Van Tiel, M., Van Loon, A., Seibert, J. & Stahl, K. Hydrological response to warm and dry weather: do glaciers compensate? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-44 (2021).Pokhrel, Y. et al. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 226–233 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Qin, Y. et al. Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 459–465 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
KC, S. & Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 181–192 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Popp, A. et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 331–345 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Munia, H. A. et al. Future transboundary water stress and its drivers under climate change: a global study. Earth’s Future 8, e2019EF001321 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lutz, A. F., Maat, W., Biemans, H. & Shrestha, A. B. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach. Int. J. Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4608 (2016).Wijngaard, R. R. et al. Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the South-Asian water gap. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 6297–6321 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wen, S. et al. Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River basin. Atmos. Res. 218, 296–305 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Cheema, M. J. M., Immerzeel, W. W. & Bastiaanssen, W. G. M. Spatial quantification of groundwater abstraction in the irrigated indus basin. Groundwater 52, 25–36 (2014).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Siderius, C. et al. Financial feasibility of water conservation in agriculture. Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF001726 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Grafton, R. Q. et al. The paradox of irrigation efficiency. Science 361, 748–750 (2018).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Shah, H., Siderius, C. & Hellegers, P. Limitations to adjusting growing periods in different agroecological zones of Pakistan. Agric. Syst. 192, 103184 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Bogaart, P. W., van Vuuren, D. P., Biemans, H. & Niessink, R. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential. Nat. Energy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0006-y (2017).Grill, G. et al. Mapping the world’s free-flowing rivers. Nature 569, 215–221 (2019).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Molden, D. J., Vaidya, R. A., Shrestha, A. B., Rasul, G. & Shrestha, M. S. Water infrastructure for the Hindu Kush Himalayas. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 30, 60–77 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vinca, A. et al. Transboundary cooperation a potential route to sustainable development in the Indus basin. Nat. Sustain. 4, 331–339 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rasul, G., Neupane, N., Hussain, A. & Pasakhala, B. Beyond hydropower: towards an integrated solution for water, energy and food security in South Asia. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 37, 466–490 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wu, X., Jeuland, M., Sadoff, C. & Whittington, D. Interdependence in water resource development in the Ganges: an economic analysis. Water Policy 15, 89–108 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gesch, D. B., Verdin, K. L. & Greenlee, S. K. New land surface digital elevation model covers the Earth. Eos Trans. AGU 80, 69–70 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lehner, B. & Grill, G. Global river hydrography and network routing: baseline data and new approaches to study the world’s large river systems. Hydrol. Process. 27, 2171–2186 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Terink, W., Lutz, A. F., Simons, G. W. H., Immerzeel, W. W. & Droogers, P. SPHY v2.0: Spatial processes in HYdrology. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 2009–2034 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Paul, F., Huggel, C. & Kääb, A. Combining satellite multispectral image data and a digital elevation model for mapping debris-covered glaciers. Remote Sens. Environ. 89, 510–518 (2004).Article 

Google Scholar 
Frey, H. et al. Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods. Cryosphere 8, 2313–2333 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hock, R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. J. Hydrol. 282, 104–115 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Shrestha, A. B. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: sources, shifts and extremes. PLoS ONE 11, e0165630 (2016).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Droogers, P. & Allen, R. G. Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions. Irrig. Drain. Syst. 16, 33–45 (2002).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gerten, D. et al. Global water availability and requirements for future food production. J. Hydrometeorol. 12, 885–899 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Schaphoff, S. et al. Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014026 (2013).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Rost, S. et al. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resour. Res. 44, W09405 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lehner, B. et al. Global Reservoir and Dam Database, v.1 (GRanDv1): Reservoirs, Revision 01 (NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, 2011); https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/grand-v1-dams-rev01Biemans, H. et al. Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century. Water Resour. Res. 47, W03509 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Jägermeyr, J. et al. Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 3073–3091 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Simons, G. W. H., Droogers, P., Contreras, S., Sieber, J. & Bastiaanssen, W. G. M. A novel method to quantify consumed fractions and non-consumptive use of irrigation water: application to the Indus Basin Irrigation System of Pakistan. Agric. Water Manag. 236, 106174 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Keenan, T. F. et al. A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2. Nature 600, 253–258 (2021).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Elliott, J. et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3239–3244 (2014).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Bijl, D. L. et al. A global analysis of future water deficit based on different allocation mechanisms. Water Resour. Res. 54, 5803–5824 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
de Vos, L., Biemans, H., Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E. & Van Vuuren, D. P. Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 115003 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Alcamo, J. et al. Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 317–337 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wada, Y. et al. Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L20402 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Weedon, G. P. et al. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Water Resour. Res. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638 (2014).Immerzeel, W. W., Wanders, N., Lutz, A. F., Shea, J. M. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Reconciling high altitude precipitation with glacier mass balances and runoff. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 4755–4784 (2015).
Google Scholar 
Harmonized World Soil Database (v.1.2) (FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC, 2012); https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/ru/Boer, F. D. HiHydroSoil: A High Resolution Soil Map of Hydraulic Properties v.1.2 (FutureWater, 2016).Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S. & Döll, P. MIRCA2000—Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 24, GB1011 (2010).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Defourny, P. et al. GLOBCOVER: A 300 m global land cover product for 2005 using ENVISAT MERIS time series. In Proc. ISPRS Commission VII Mid-Term Symposium: Remote Sensing: From Pixels to Processes (eds Kerle, N. & Skidmore, A.) (International Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 2007).Wada, Y., Wisser, D. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. Earth Syst. Dyn. 5, 15–40 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Van Drecht, G. & De Vos, M. The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 73–86 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
AQUASTAT database (FAO, 2016); https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/Arendt, A. et al. Randolph Glacier Inventory [5.0]: A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines, v.5.0 (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS), 2015); https://www.glims.org/RGI/van Vuuren, D. P. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122, 373–386 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The roads ahead: narratives for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 169–180 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Stehfest, E., et al. Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0.—Model Description and Policy Applications (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2014).Bijl, D. L., Bogaart, P. W., Kram, T., de Vries, B. J. M. & van Vuuren, D. P. Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households. Environ. Sci. Policy 55, 75–86 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Doelman, J. C. et al. Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation. Glob. Environ. Change 48, 119–135 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hall, D. K. & Riggs, G. A. MODIS/Terra Snow Cover Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG, v.6. National Snow and Ice Data Center https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD10CM.006 (2015).Kääb, A., Berthier, E., Nuth, C., Gardelle, J. & Arnaud, Y. Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature 488, 495–498 (2012).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Pellicciotti, F., Buergi, C., Immerzeel, W. W., Konz, M. & Shrestha, A. B. Challenges and uncertainties in hydrological modeling of remote Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) basins: suggestions for calibration strategies. Mt. Res. Dev. 32, 39–50 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nash, J. E. & Sutcliffe, J. V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 10, 282–290 (1970).Article 

Google Scholar 
Moriasi, D. N. et al. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans. ASABE 50, 885–900 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
Food Balance Sheets. A Handbook (FAO, 2001). More

To manage and protect water resources, it is necessary to understand the water cycle. Passive microwave radiometers onboard satellites are used to monitor water resources, like soil moisture. However, microwave sensors, such as radiometers, are too coarse to see small-scale meteorological features, which can affect large-scale phenomena occurring within the water cycle. Other spaceborne instruments produce finer-resolution images, but these instruments are much more sensitive to cloud contamination, limiting their useful coverage. More

Rockström, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472–475 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Steffen, W. et al. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347, 1259855 (2015). Revises and updates the planetary boundaries framework, including a regional-scale planetary boundary for freshwater use based on environmental flow requirements.Article 

Google Scholar 
Steffen, W. et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 8252–8259 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gerten, D. et al. Towards a revised planetary boundary for consumptive freshwater use: role of environmental flow requirements. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 5, 551–558 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gleeson, T. et al. Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth system resilience in the Anthropocene. Water Resour. Res. 56, e2019WR024957 (2020). Provides an overview of the many roles of the water cycle for Earth system functioning and evidence-based justification for a water planetary boundary that represents more than blue water.Article 

Google Scholar 
Gleeson, T. et al. The water planetary boundary: interrogation and revision. One Earth 2, 223–234 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Karlberg, L., Rockström, J., Falkenmark, M. & Others. in Rainfed Agriculture: Unlocking the Potential (eds Wani, S. P., Rockström, J. & Oweis, T.) 44–57 (CABI, 2009).Levy, M. C., Lopes, A. V., Cohn, A., Larsen, L. G. & Thompson, S. E. Land use change increases streamflow across the arc of deforestation in Brazil. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 3520–3530 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Falkenmark, M., Wang-Erlandsson, L. & Rockström, J. Understanding of water resilience in the Anthropocene. J. Hydrol. X 2, 100009 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Staal, A. et al. Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century. Nat. Commun. 11, 4978 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Berdugo, M. et al. Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity. Science 367, 787–790 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gordon, L. J., Peterson, G. D. & Bennett, E. M. Agricultural modifications of hydrological flows create ecological surprises. Trends Ecol. Evol. 23, 211–219 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Liu, J., Wang, B., Cane, M. A., Yim, S.-Y. & Lee, J.-Y. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature 493, 656–659 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Miralles, D. G., Brutsaert, W., Dolman, A. J. & Gash, J. H. On the use of the term ‘evapotranspiration’. Water Resour. Res. 56, e2020WR028055 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Berg, A., Lintner, B. R., Findell, K. & Giannini, A. Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 6124–6133 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Seneviratne, S. I. et al. Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev. 99, 125–161 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tuinenburg, O. A. Atmospheric Effects of Irrigation in Monsoon Climate: The Indian Subcontinent. PhD thesis, Wageningen Univ. (2013).Green, T. R. et al. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater. J. Hydrol. 405, 532–560 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Del Grosso, S. et al. Global potential net primary production predicted from vegetation class, precipitation, and temperature. Ecology 89, 2117–2126 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Shi, P. et al. Urbanization and air quality as major drivers of altered spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall in China. Landsc. Ecol. 32, 1723–1738 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Runyan, C. W., D’Odorico, P. & Lawrence, D. Physical and biological feedbacks of deforestation. Rev. Geophys. 50, RG4006 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al. Remote land use impacts on river flows through atmospheric teleconnections. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 4311–4328 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lo, M.-H. & Famiglietti, J. S. Irrigation in California’s Central Valley strengthens the southwestern U.S. water cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 301–306 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lawrence, D. & Vandecar, K. Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 27–36 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pitman, A. J. et al. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations. Earth Syst. Dyn. 3, 213–231 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sillmann, J. et al. Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 2, 24 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., Feng, X., Porporato, A. & ul Hasson, S. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Clim. Dyn. 46, 1331–1350 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rosenfeld, D. et al. Flood or drought: how do aerosols affect precipitation? Science 321, 1309–1313 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Fowler, H. J. et al. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 107–122 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, W. et al. Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world. Sci. Adv. 7, eabf8021 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Chiang, F., Mazdiyasni, O. & AghaKouchak, A. Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity. Nat. Commun. 12, 2754 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lenton, T. M. et al. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786–1793 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H. & Scheffer, M. Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 334, 232–235 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Staver, C. A., Archibald, S. & Levin, S. A. The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science 334, 230–232 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vico, G., Dralle, D., Feng, X., Thompson, S. & Manzoni, S. How competitive is drought deciduousness in tropical forests? A combined eco-hydrological and eco-evolutionary approach. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 065006 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Duke, N. C., Field, C., Mackenzie, J. R., Meynecke, J.-O. & Wood, A. L. Rainfall and its possible hysteresis effect on the proportional cover of tropical tidal-wetland mangroves and saltmarsh–saltpans. Mar. Freshw. Res. 70, 1047–1055 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Neves, D. M. et al. Evolutionary diversity in tropical tree communities peaks at intermediate precipitation. Sci. Rep. 10, 1188 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Liu, Z. et al. Precipitation thresholds regulate net carbon exchange at the continental scale. Nat. Commun. 9, 3596 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Guan, K. et al. Photosynthetic seasonality of global tropical forests constrained by hydroclimate. Nat. Geosci. 8, 284–289 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Souza, R. et al. Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests. Hydrol. Process. 30, 3583–3595 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rohr, T., Manzoni, S., Feng, X., Menezes, R. S. C. & Porporato, A. Effect of rainfall seasonality on carbon storage in tropical dry ecosystems. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 118, 1156–1167 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vezzoli, R., De Michele, C., Pavlopoulos, H. & Scholes, R. J. Dryland ecosystems: The coupled stochastic dynamics of soil water and vegetation and the role of rainfall seasonality. Phys. Rev. E 77, 051908 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Li, C. et al. Drivers and impacts of changes in China’s drylands. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 858–873 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J. et al. Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity. Nat. Commun. 11, 3346 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Anderson, L. O. et al. Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 373, 20170411 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hubau, W. et al. Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests. Nature 579, 80–87 (2020). Extensive observation-based analyses show that net carbon uptake has peaked in the Amazon, and, more recently, also in African rainforests.Article 

Google Scholar 
Dannenberg, M. P., Wise, E. K. & Smith, W. K. Reduced tree growth in the semiarid United States due to asymmetric responses to intensifying precipitation extremes. Sci. Adv. 5, eaaw0667 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gherardi, L. A. & Sala, O. E. Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 12735–12740 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Eekhout, J. P. C., Hunink, J. E., Terink, W. & de Vente, J. Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 5935–5946 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sharma, A., Wasko, C. & Lettenmaier, D. P. If precipitation extremes are increasing, why aren’t floods? Water Resour. Res. 54, 8545–8551 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Merz, B. et al. Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 592–609 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sterling, S. M., Ducharne, A. & Polcher, J. The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 385–390 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gordon, L. J. et al. Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 7612–7617 (2005).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rost, S., Gerten, D. & Heyder, U. Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management. Adv. Geosci. 18, 43–50 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, K. et al. Vegetation greening and climate change promote multidecadal rises of global land evapotranspiration. Sci. Rep. 5, 15956 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Cheng, L. et al. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle. Nat. Commun. 8, 110 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ainsworth, E. A. & Rogers, A. The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental interactions. Plant. Cell Environ. 30, 258–270 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
Keenan, T. F. et al. Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise. Nature 499, 324–327 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Keys, P. W., Wang-Erlandsson, L. & Gordon, L. J. Revealing invisible water: moisture recycling as an ecosystem service. PLoS One 11, e0151993 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Thiery, W. et al. Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 1403–1422 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Thiery, W. et al. Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation. Nat. Commun. 11, 290 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kang, S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation. Nat. Commun. 9, 2894 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Raymond, C., Matthews, T. & Horton, R. M. The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance. Sci. Adv. 6, eaaw1838 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lee, J.-E., Lintner, B. R., Kevin Boyce, C. & Lawrence, P. J. Land use change exacerbates tropical South American drought by sea surface temperature variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L19706 (2011).
Google Scholar 
Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H. M. J. & Kurths, J. A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system. Sci. Rep. 7, 41489 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bruijnzeel, L. A. Hydrological functions of tropical forests: not seeing the soil for the trees? Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 104, 185–228 (2004).Article 

Google Scholar 
van Luijk, G., Cowling, R. M., Riksen, M. J. P. M. & Glenday, J. Hydrological implications of desertification: Degradation of South African semi-arid subtropical thicket. J. Arid Environ. 91, 14–21 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Robinson, D. A. et al. Experimental evidence for drought induced alternative stable states of soil moisture. Sci. Rep. 6, 20018 (2016). Manipulation experiments demonstrate the presence of drought-driven irreversible tipping points of soil moisture states, in support of previous modelling and observation-based studies.Article 

Google Scholar 
Borrelli, P. et al. An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion. Nat. Commun. 8, 2013 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Panagos, P. et al. The new assessment of soil loss by water erosion in Europe. Environ. Sci. Policy 54, 438–447 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bonfils, C. J. W. et al. Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 726–731 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Samaniego, L. et al. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 421–426 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Budyko, M. I. Climate and Life (Academic Press, 1974).Malhi, Y. et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20610–20615 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Saatchi, S. et al. Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 565–570 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Murray-Tortarolo, G. et al. The dry season intensity as a key driver of NPP trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2632–2639 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nepstad, D. C., Tohver, I. M., Ray, D., Moutinho, P. & Cardinot, G. Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology 88, 2259–2269 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
Meir, P. et al. Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments. Bioscience 65, 882–892 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Brookshire, E. N. J. & Weaver, T. Long-term decline in grassland productivity driven by increasing dryness. Nat. Commun. 6, 7148 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Piao, S. et al. Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 1, 14–27 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Berg, A. & McColl, K. A. No projected global drylands expansion under greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 331–337 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Green, J. K. et al. Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature 565, 476–479 (2019). Shows that soil moisture variability substantially reduces the carbon land uptake due to non-linear ecological responses to water availability and land–atmosphere interactions.Article 

Google Scholar 
Quan, Q. et al. Water scaling of ecosystem carbon cycle feedback to climate warming. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav1131 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Stocker, B. D. et al. Quantifying soil moisture impacts on light use efficiency across biomes. New Phytol. 218, 1430–1449 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Humphrey, V. et al. Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage. Nature 560, 628–631 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kerr, D. D. & Ochsner, T. E. Soil organic carbon more strongly related to soil moisture than soil temperature in temperate grasslands. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 84, 587–596 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ahlstrom, A. et al. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink. Science 348, 895–899 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Poulter, B. et al. Contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Nature 509, 600–603 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, W. et al. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034023 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bragazza, L., Parisod, J., Buttler, A. & Bardgett, R. D. Biogeochemical plant–soil microbe feedback in response to climate warming in peatlands. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 273–277 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Knoblauch, C., Beer, C., Liebner, S., Grigoriev, M. N. & Pfeiffer, E.-M. Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 309–312 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Natali, S. M. et al. Permafrost thaw and soil moisture driving CO2 and CH4 release from upland tundra. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 120, 525–537 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Slessarev, E. W. et al. Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale. Nature 540, 567–569 (2016). Shows that a bimodal pattern in global soil pH distribution is regulated by annual water balance and suggests that human-driven changes in aridity can result in transitions from alkaline to acid soils, with unknown implications for soil nutrients supply and biomass production.Article 

Google Scholar 
Moreno-Jiménez, E. et al. Aridity and reduced soil micronutrient availability in global drylands. Nat. Sustain. 2, 371–377 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Maestre, F. T. et al. Increasing aridity reduces soil microbial diversity and abundance in global drylands. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 15684–15689 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rabbi, S. M. F. et al. Climate and soil properties limit the positive effects of land use reversion on carbon storage in Eastern Australia. Sci. Rep. 5, 17866 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kramer, M. G. & Chadwick, O. A. Climate-driven thresholds in reactive mineral retention of soil carbon at the global scale. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 1104–1108 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D., Litschi, M. & Schär, C. Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443, 205–209 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Whan, K. et al. Impact of soil moisture on extreme maximum temperatures in Europe. Weather Clim. Extremes 9, 57–67 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hirschi, M. et al. Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nat. Geosci. 4, 17–21 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hauser, M., Orth, R. & Seneviratne, S. I. Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2819–2826 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Yang, L., Sun, G., Zhi, L. & Zhao, J. Negative soil moisture-precipitation feedback in dry and wet regions. Sci. Rep. 8, 4026 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhou, S. et al. Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 38–44 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., van Heerwaarden, C. C. & de Arellano, J. V.-G. Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation. Nat. Geosci. 7, 345–349 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, P. et al. Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point. Science 370, 1095–1099 (2020). Analyses based on tree-ring data over the past 260 years show an abrupt shift that could potentially be explained by self-amplifying feedbacks of soil moisture deficit and surface warming, which points towards risk for an irreversible tipping point in the East Asian climate system under climate change.Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang, Y. et al. Detecting the causal effect of soil moisture on precipitation using convergent cross mapping. Sci. Rep. 8, 12171 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Feng, M. et al. Understanding the resilience of soil moisture regimes. Water Resour. Res. 55, 7541–7563 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Good, S. P., Moore, G. W. & Miralles, D. G. A mesic maximum in biological water use demarcates biome sensitivity to aridity shifts. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1883–1888 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
D’Odorico, P. & Porporato, A. Preferential states in soil moisture and climate dynamics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 8848–8851 (2004).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Entekhabi, D., Lee, J.-S. & Bras, R. L. Nonlinear dynamics of soil moisture at climate scales: 2. Chaotic analysis. Water Resour. Res. 27, 1907–1915 (1991).Article 

Google Scholar 
Peterson, T. J., Saft, M., Peel, M. C. & John, A. Watersheds may not recover from drought. Science 372, 745–749 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rockström, J. et al. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol. Soc. 14, 32 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, Y. et al. Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components. Sci. Rep. 6, 19124 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J. et al. Uncertainties in transpiration estimates. Nature 506, E1–E2 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang, L., Good, S. P. & Caylor, K. K. Global synthesis of vegetation control on evapotranspiration partitioning. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6753–6757 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Heimann, M. & Reichstein, M. Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks. Nature 451, 289–292 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Beck, H. E. et al. MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 21, 589–615 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M. & Wada, Y. The aridity index under global warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 124006 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Yang, Y., Roderick, M. L., Zhang, S., McVicar, T. R. & Donohue, R. J. Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 44–48 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ghannam, K. et al. Persistence and memory timescales in root-zone soil moisture dynamics. Water Resour. Res. 52, 1427–1445 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Entin, J. K. et al. Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 11865–11877 (2000).Article 

Google Scholar 
Famiglietti, C. A., Michalak, A. M. & Konings, A. G. Extreme wet events as important as extreme dry events in controlling spatial patterns of vegetation greenness anomalies. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 074014 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wieners, K.-H. et al. MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical. Earth System Grid Federation. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6595 (2019).Jungclaus, J. et al. MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 PMIP midHolocene. Earth System Grid Federation. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6644 (2019).Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M. & Herold, M. Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nat. Commun. 12, 2501 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kaplan, J. O., Krumhardt, K. M. & Zimmermann, N. The prehistoric and preindustrial deforestation of Europe. Quat. Sci. Rev. 28, 3016–3034 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dallmeyer, A. et al. Holocene vegetation transitions and their climatic drivers in MPI-ESM1.2. Clim. Past 17, 2481–2513 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Persson, L. et al. Outside the safe operating space of the planetary boundary for novel entities. Environ. Sci. Technol. 56, 1510–1521 (2022).Article 

Google Scholar 
Jaramillo, F. & Destouni, G. Comment on ‘Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet’. Science 348, 1217 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Campbell, B. M. et al. Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecol. Soci. 22, 8 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lade, S. J. et al. Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nat. Sustain. 3, 119–128 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang, S. et al. Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 370, 1295–1300 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wieder, W. R., Cleveland, C. C., Smith, W. K. & Todd-Brown, K. Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability. Nat. Geosci. 8, 441–444 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhu, Z. et al. Comment on ‘Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis’. Science 373, eabg5673 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang, S. et al. Response to Comments on ‘Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis’. Science 373, eabg7484 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sang, Y. et al. Comment on ‘Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis’. Science 373, eabg4420 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Frankenberg, C., Yin, Y., Byrne, B., He, L. & Gentine, P. Comment on ‘Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis’. Science 373, eabg2947 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tagesson, T. et al. Recent divergence in the contributions of tropical and boreal forests to the terrestrial carbon sink. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 202–209 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E. & Staal, A. High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 3177–3188 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Adams, M. A., Buckley, T. N. & Turnbull, T. L. Diminishing CO2-driven gains in water-use efficiency of global forests. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 466–471 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ravi, S., Breshears, D. D., Huxman, T. E. & D’Odorico, P. Land degradation in drylands: Interactions among hydrologic–aeolian erosion and vegetation dynamics. Geomorphology 116, 236–245 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Miralles, D. G. et al. Contribution of water-limited ecoregions to their own supply of rainfall. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 124007 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Keys, P. W. et al. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions. Biogeosciences 9, 733–746 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Korell, L., Auge, H., Chase, J. M., Harpole, W. S. & Knight, T. M. Responses of plant diversity to precipitation change are strongest at local spatial scales and in drylands. Nat. Commun. 12, 2489 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhou, S., Zhang, Y., Park Williams, A. & Gentine, P. Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events. Sci. Adv. 5, eaau5740 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Miner, K. R. et al. Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 3, 55–67 (2022).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ford, T. W. & Frauenfeld, O. W. Surface–atmosphere moisture interactions in the frozen ground regions of Eurasia. Sci. Rep. 6, 19163 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Chen, J. M. et al. Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink. Nat. Commun. 10, 4259 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Smith, W. K. et al. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 306–310 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Huntzinger, D. N. et al. Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions. Sci. Rep. 7, 4765 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Jensen, L., Eicker, A., Dobslaw, H., Stacke, T. & Humphrey, V. Long-term wetting and drying trends in land water storage derived from GRACE and CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 124, 9808–9823 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Samset, B. H., Fuglestvedt, J. S. & Lund, M. T. Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation. Nat. Commun. 11, 3261 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
te Wierik, S. A., Gupta, J., Cammeraat, E. L. H. & Artzy-Randrup, Y. A. The need for green and atmospheric water governance. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water 7, e1406 (2020). Provides rationales for the need for regulating and governing human interference with green water and atmospheric water.Article 

Google Scholar 
Young, O. R. Institutional Dynamics: Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance (MIT Press, 2010).Schmidt, F. in Transgovernance: Advancing Sustainability Governance (ed. Meuleman, L.) 215–234 (Springer, 2013).Lal, R. et al. Soils and sustainable development goals of the United Nations: An International Union of Soil Sciences perspective. Geoderma Reg. 25, e00398 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Falkenmark, M. & Rockström, J. The new blue and green water paradigm: Breaking new ground for water pesources planning and management. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag. 132, 129–132 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Borrelli, P. et al. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 21994–22001 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Evans, C. D. et al. Overriding water table control on managed peatland greenhouse gas emissions. Nature 593, 548–552 (2021).
Google Scholar 
Zipper, S. C. et al. Integrating the water planetary boundary with water management from local to global scales. Earths Future 8, e2019EF001377 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Häyhä, T., Lucas, P. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Cornell, S. E. & Hoff, H. From planetary boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space — How can the scales be bridged? Glob. Environ. Change 40, 60–72 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dearing, J. A. et al. Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems. Glob. Environ. Change 28, 227–238 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bjørn, A. et al. Challenges and opportunities towards improved application of the planetary boundary for land-system change in life cycle assessment of products. Sci. Total. Environ. 696, 133964 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bunsen, J., Berger, M. & Finkbeiner, M. Planetary boundaries for water–A review. Ecol. Indic. 121, 107022 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Link, A., van der Ent, R., Berger, M., Eisner, S. & Finkbeiner, M. The fate of land evaporation–a global dataset. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 1897–1912 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
van der Ent, R. J., Savenije, H. H. G., Schaefli, B. & Steele-Dunne, S. C. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resour. Res. 46, W09525 (2010).
Google Scholar 
Schyns, J. F., Hoekstra, A. Y. & Booij, M. J. Review and classification of indicators of green water availability and scarcity. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 4581–4608 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Stenzel, F., Gerten, D., Werner, C. & Jägermeyr, J. Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 084001 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dalby, S. Framing the Anthropocene: The good, the bad and the ugly. Anthropocene Rev. 3, 33–51 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tainter, J. A. in The Way the Wind Blows: Climate, History, and Human Action (eds McIntosh, R. J., Tainter, J. A. & McIntosh, S. K.) 331 (Columbia University Press, 2000).Ripl, W. Water: the bloodstream of the biosphere. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 358, 1921–1934 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dorigo, W. et al. ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. Remote Sens. Environ. 203, 185–215 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Alexakis, D. D., Polykretis, C. & Daliakopoulos, I. N. Regionalizing root-zone soil moisture estimates from ESA CCI soil water index using machine learning and information on soil, vegetation, and climate. Water Resour. Res. 57, e2020WR029249 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Trugman, A. T., Medvigy, D., Mankin, J. S. & Anderegg, W. R. L. Soil moisture stress as a major driver of carbon cycle uncertainty. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 6495–6503 (2018). Shows that the simplistic representations of soil moisture stress across global vegetation models cause major uncertainties in estimated land carbon sink under climate change.Article 

Google Scholar 
Beyer, R. M., Krapp, M. & Manica, A. High-resolution terrestrial climate, bioclimate and vegetation for the last 120,000 years. Sci. Data 7, 236 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Allen, J. R. M. et al. Global vegetation patterns of the past 140,000 years. J. Biogeogr. 47, 2073–2090 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kageyama, M. et al. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6–Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 1033–1057 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dorigo, W. et al. The International Soil Moisture Network: serving Earth system science for over a decade. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 25, 5749–5804 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Baldocchi, D. et al. FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem–scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 2415–2434 (2001).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bouaziz, L. J. E. et al. Improved understanding of the link between catchment-scale vegetation accessible storage and satellite-derived Soil Water Index. Water Resour. Res. 56, e2019WR026365 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Martens, B. et al. GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 1903–1925 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tian, S., Renzullo, L. J., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Tregoning, P. & Walker, J. P. Global joint assimilation of GRACE and SMOS for improved estimation of root-zone soil moisture and vegetation response. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 23, 1067–1081 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al. Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 1459–1481 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Fan, Y., Miguez-Macho, G., Jobbágy, E. G., Jackson, R. B. & Otero-Casal, C. Hydrologic regulation of plant rooting depth. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 10572–10577 (2017). Shows that rooting depths globally are highly adaptive to hydroclimate, topography and soil hydrology, with implications for improving the representation of plant–water interactions in Earth system models.Article 

Google Scholar 
Kleidon, A. Global datasets of rooting zone depth inferred from inverse methods. J. Clim. 17, 2714–2722 (2004).Article 

Google Scholar 
McCormick, E. L. et al. Widespread woody plant use of water stored in bedrock. Nature 597, 225–229 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vereecken, H. et al. Infiltration from the pedon to global grid scales: An overview and outlook for land surface modelling. Vadose Zone J. 18, 1–53 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Singh, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Fetzer, I., Rockström, J. & van der Ent, R. Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 124021 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sakschewski, B. et al. Variable tree rooting strategies improve tropical productivity and evapotranspiration in a dynamic global vegetation model. Biogeosciences 27, 1–35 (2020).
Google Scholar 
Wilkinson, M. D. et al. The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship. Sci. Data 3, 160018 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Biermann, F. & Kim, R. E. The boundaries of the Planetary Boundary framework: A critical appraisal of approaches to define a “safe operating space” for humanity. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 45, 497–521 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Petschel-Held, G., Schellnhuber, H.-J., Bruckner, T., Tóth, F. L. & Hasselmann, K. The tolerable windows approach: theoretical and methodological foundations. Clim. Change 41, 303–331 (1999).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ziegler, R., Gerten, D. & Döll, P. in Global Water Ethics (eds Ziegler, R. & Groenfeldt, D.) 109–130 (Routledge, 2017).Sivapalan, M. & Blöschl, G. Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water. Water Resour. Res. 51, 6988–7022 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mueller, B. et al. Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 3707–3720 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Oki, T. & Kanae, S. Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313, 1068–1072 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
von Bloh, W. et al. Implementing the nitrogen cycle into the dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (version 5.0). Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 2789–2812 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar  More

Gaget, E. et al. Conserv. Biol. 35, 834–845 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Green, A. J. et al. in The Wetland Book II. Distribution, Description and Conservation (eds. Finlayson, C. M. et al.) 1123–1136 (Springer, 2018).Sergio, F. et al. Oecologia 166, 79–90 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Scheffer, M. et al. Science 347, 1317–1319 (2015).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Green, A. J. et al. Front. Ecol. Environ. 15, 99–107 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ruaro, R. & Laurance, W. F. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 6, 120–121 (2022).Article 

Google Scholar 
Paredes, I. et al. Wetlands Ecol. Manage. 29, 41–65 (2021).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M. et al. Wetlands 41, 25 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Campo-Celada, M. et al. Oikos https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.08387 (2022).Almaraz, P., Green, A. J., Aguilera, E., Rendón, M. A. & Bustamante, J. J. Anim. Ecol. 81, 1113–1125 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar  More

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain
the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in
Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles
and JavaScript. More

Siebert, S., Portmann, F. T. & Döll, P. Global patterns of cropland use intensity. Remote Sens. 2, 1625–1643 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rodell, M., Velicogna, I. & Famiglietti, J. S. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460, 999–1002 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tiwari, V. M., Wahr, J. & Swenson, S. Dwindling groundwater resources in northern India, from satellite gravity observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039401 (2009).Chen, J., Li, J., Zhang, Z. & Ni, S. Long-term groundwater variations in northwest India from satellite gravity measurements. Glob. Planet. Change 116, 130–138 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bhanja, S. N. & Mukherjee, A. In situ and satellite-based estimates of usable groundwater storage across India: implications for drinking water supply and food security. Adv. Water Resour. 126, 15–23 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tang, Y. et al. Reconstructing annual groundwater storage changes in a large-scale irrigation region using GRACE data and Budyko model. J. Hydrol. 551, 397–406 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ahmed, K., Shahid, S., Demirel, M. C., Nawaz, N. & Khan, N. The changing characteristics of groundwater sustainability in Pakistan from 2002 to 2016. Hydrogeol. J. 27, 2485–2496 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Asoka, A., Gleeson, T., Wada, Y. & Mishra, V. Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India. Nat. Geosci. 10, 109–117 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
MacDonald, A. M. et al. Groundwater quality and depletion in the Indo-Gangetic basin mapped from in situ observations. Nat. Geosci. 9, 762–766 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Basharat, M., Umair Ali, S. & Azhar, A. H. Spatial variation in irrigation demand and supply across canal commands in Punjab: a real integrated water resources management challenge. Water Policy 16, 397–421 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Irfan, M., Qadir, A., Ali, H., Jamil, N. & Ahmad, S. R. Vulnerability of Environmental Resources in Indus Basin after the Development of Irrigation System (Intechopen, 2019).Shah, T. Taming the Anarchy: Groundwater Governance in South Asia (Routledge, 2010).Tahir, Z. & Habib, Z. Land and Water Productivity: Trends Across Punjab Canal Commands Vol. 14 (IWMI, 2001).Van Dijk, W. M. et al. Spatial variation of groundwater response to multiple drivers in a depleting alluvial aquifer system, northwestern India. Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133319871941 (2020).Lapworth, D. J. et al. Groundwater recharge and age-depth profiles of intensively exploited groundwater resources in northwest India. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 7554–7562 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Raza, A., Latif, M. & Shakir, A. S. Long-term effectiveness of lining tertiary canals in the Indus basin of Pakistan. Irrig. Drain. 62, 16–24 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mukherji, A. Sustainable groundwater management in India needs a water–energy–food nexus approach. Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 44, 394–410 (2020).Panda, D. K. & Wahr, J. Spatiotemporal evolution of water storage changes in India from the updated GRACE-derived gravity records. Water Resour. Res. 52, 135–149 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tripathi, A., Mishra, A. K. & Verma, G. Impact of preservation of subsoil water act on groundwater depletion: the case of Punjab, India. Environ. Manage. 58, 48–59 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Watto, M. A., Mugera, A. W., Kingwell, R. & Saqab, M. M. Re-thinking the unimpeded tube-well growth under the depleting groundwater resources in the Punjab, Pakistan. Hydrogeol. J. 26, 2411–2425 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Greenman, D. W., Bennett, G. D. & Swarzenski, W. V. Ground-Water Hydrology of the Punjab, West Pakistan, with Emphasis on Problems Caused by Canal Irrigation (US Government Printing Office, 1967).Jeevandas, A., Singh, R. & Kumar, R. Concerns of groundwater depletion and irrigation efficiency in Punjab agriculture: a micro-level study. Agric. Econ. Res. Rev. 21, 191–199 (2008).
Google Scholar 
Shekhar, S. et al. Modelling water levels of northwestern India in response to improved irrigation use efficiency. Sci. Rep. 10, 13452 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ground-Water Studies in the Ghaggar River basin in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan Final Technical Report Vol. 1 (UNDP, 1985).Long, D., Chen, X. & Scanlon, B. et al. Have GRACE satellites overestimated groundwater depletion in the northwest India aquifer? Sci. Rep. 6, 24398 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Joshi, S. K., Gupta, S., Sinha, R., Densmore, A. L., Rai, S. P., Shekhar, S. & van Dijk, W. M. Strongly heterogeneous patterns of groundwater depletion in northwestern India. J. Hydrol. 598, 126492 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Joshi, S. K. et al. Tracing groundwater recharge sources in the northwestern Indian alluvial aquifer using water isotopes (Δ18O, Δ2H and 3H). J. Hydrol. 559, 835–847 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
O’Keeffe, J. et al. Isolating the impacts of anthropogenic water use within the hydrological regime of north India. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 45, 1217–1228 (2019).Erenstein, O. Comparing water management in rice–wheat production systems in Haryana, India and Punjab, Pakistan. Agric. Water Manage. 96, 1799–1806 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zaveri, E. et al. Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 084005 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Shah, T. Climate change and groundwater: India’s opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 035005 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mishra, V. Long-term (1870–2018) drought reconstruction in context of surface water security in India. J. Hydrol. 580, 124228 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Devanand, A., Huang, M., Ashfaq, M., Barik, B. & Ghosh, S. Choice of irrigation water management practice affects Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 9126–9135 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Laghari, A., Vanham, D. & Rauch, W. The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 1063–1083 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wijngaard, R. R. et al. Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 6297–6321 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Butler, J. J., Bohling, G. C., Whittemore, D. O. & Wilson, B. B. A roadblock on the path to aquifer sustainability: underestimating the impact of pumping reductions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 014003 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Turner, S. W. D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Kim, S. H. & Kyle, P. Influence of groundwater extraction costs and resource depletion limits on simulated global nonrenewable water withdrawals over the twenty-first century. Earths Future 7, 123–135 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Khan, S., Rana, T., Gabriel, H. & Ullah, M. K. Hydrogeologic assessment of escalating groundwater exploitation in the Indus basin, Pakistan. Hydrogeol. J. 16, 1635–1654 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mekonnen, D., Siddiqi, A. & Ringler, C. Drivers of groundwater use and technical efficiency of groundwater, canal water, and conjunctive use in Pakistan’s Indus basin irrigation system. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 32, 459–476 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Report of the 5th Census of Minor Irrigation Schemes (Ministry of Water Resources, 2017).Qureshi, A. S., Tushaar, S. & Mujeeb, A. The Groundwater Economy of Pakistan (IWMI, 2003).Bennett, G. D. Analysis of aquifer tests in the Punjab region of West Pakistan (US Government Printing Office, 1967).Bonsor, H. C. et al. Hydrogeological typologies of the Indo-Gangetic basin alluvial aquifer, South Asia. Hydrogeol. J. 25, 1377–1406 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lapworth, D. J. et al. Groundwater quality in the alluvial aquifer system of northwest India: new evidence of the extent of anthropogenic and geogenic contamination. Sci. Total Environ. 599–600, 1433–1444 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Krishan, G. et al. Isotopes (δ18O, δD and 3H) variations in groundwater with emphasis on salinization in the State of Punjab, India. Sci. Total Environ. 148051 (2021).Punjab Development Statistics 2003 (Bureau of Statistics, 2003).Punjab Development Statistics 2019 (Bureau of Statistics, 2019).Statistical Abstract of Punjab 2019 (Economic and Statistical Organisation, 2019).Statistical Abstract of Haryana 2018–19 (Department of Economic and Statistical Analysis, 2020).Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R. & Smith, R. A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour. Res. 18, 107–121 (1982).Article 

Google Scholar 
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. & Kleist, J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proc. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology Vol. 17, 179–183 (1993). More

In the version of this article initially published, there was a misstatement in the third paragraph, fourth sentence, now reading in part, “Now hundreds of farmers and villagers in this cold, arid desert use the ice stupas to save the water that flows in autumn,” where “hundreds” has replaced “dozens.”. In the fifth from last paragraph, “University of Applied Sciences in Lucerne” has replaced “….Life Sciences.”After this article was published, a highly relevant paper followed, which is now referenced to enhance understanding. It is cited in the eighth paragraph, following the quote “‘Seventy-eight percent of the water used is lost during the ice stupa formation,’ said Balasubramanian6,” and provided below. The changes have been made to the HTML and PDF versions of the article. More

Estimating future economic and domestic water use is difficult due to uncertain changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions. Now, research estimates future water use in the United States could decrease or more than double by 2070 under plausible socioeconomic and climate scenarios.Between 1980 and 2015, the United States added more than 82 million people (34% increase), generated 1,786 billion kWh more electricity annually (78% increase), and irrigated 2.4 million more hectares of cropland each year (10% increase). Yet, surprisingly, during this same period, total annual water withdrawals decreased by nearly 150 billion m3 (25% reduction)1,2. Given the importance of water in meeting our basic needs and supporting economic activity, long-term forecasts of societal water use are required to ensure that enough water is available to meet future water needs. However, uncertainties in future climate and socioeconomic conditions make it difficult to predict future water use. Recent research reported in Earth’s Future by Warziniack and colleagues3 introduces a novel approach to project freshwater use in the United Sates through 2070. They find that water consumption could decrease by as much as 8% or increase up to 235% under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios. More