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    Q&A: David Whelihan on the challenges of operating in the Arctic

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    To most, the Arctic can feel like an abstract place, difficult to imagine beyond images of ice and polar bears. But researcher David Whelihan of MIT Lincoln Laboratory’s Advanced Undersea Systems and Technology Group is no stranger to the Arctic. Through Operation Ice Camp, a U.S. Navy–sponsored biennial mission to assess operational readiness in the Arctic region, he has traveled to this vast and remote wilderness twice over the past few years to test low-cost sensor nodes developed by the group to monitor loss in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. The research team envisions establishing a network of such sensors across the Arctic that will persistently detect ice-fracturing events and correlate these events with environmental conditions to provide insights into why the sea ice is breaking up. Whelihan shared his perspectives on why the Arctic matters and what operating there is like.Q: Why do we need to be able to operate in the Arctic?A: Spanning approximately 5.5 million square miles, the Arctic is huge, and one of its salient features is that the ice covering much of the Arctic Ocean is decreasing in volume with every passing year. Melting ice opens up previously impassable areas, resulting in increasing interest from potential adversaries and allies alike for activities such as military operations, commercial shipping, and natural resource extraction. Through Alaska, the United States has approximately 1,060 miles of Arctic coastline that is becoming much more accessible because of reduced ice cover. So, U.S. operation in the Arctic is a matter of national security.  Q: What are the technological limitations to Arctic operations?A: The Arctic is an incredibly harsh environment. The cold kills battery life, so collecting sensor data at high rates over long periods of time is very difficult. The ice is dynamic and can easily swallow or crush sensors. In addition, most deployments involve “boots-on-the-ice,” which is expensive and at times dangerous. One of the technological limitations is how to deploy sensors while keeping humans alive.

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    David Whelihan details the difficulties of engineering technologies that can survive in the harsh conditions of the Arctic.

    Q: How does the group’s sensor node R&D work seek to support Arctic operations?A: A lot of the work we put into our sensors pertains to deployability. Our ultimate goal is to free researchers from going onto the ice to deploy sensors. This goal will become increasingly necessary as the shrinking ice pack becomes more dynamic, unstable, and unpredictable. At the last Operation Ice Camp (OIC) in March 2024, we built and rapidly tested deployable and recoverable sensors, as well as novel concepts such as using UAVs (uncrewed aerial vehicles), or drones, as “data mules” that can fly out to and interrogate the sensors to see what they captured. We also built a prototype wearable system that cues automatic download of sensor data over Wi-Fi so that operators don’t have to take off their gloves.Q: The Arctic Circle is the northernmost region on Earth. How do you reach this remote place?A: We usually fly on commercial airlines from Boston to Seattle to Anchorage to Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope of Alaska. From there, the Navy flies us on small prop planes, like Single and Twin Otters, about 200 miles north and lands us on an ice runway built by the Navy’s Arctic Submarine Lab (ASL). The runway is part of a temporary camp that ASL establishes on floating sea ice for their operational readiness exercises conducted during OIC.Q: Think back to the first time you stepped foot in the Arctic. Can you paint a picture of what you experienced?A: My first experience was at Prudhoe Bay, coming out of the airport, which is a corrugated metal building with a single gate. Before you open the door to the outside, a sign warns you to be on the lookout for polar bears. Walking out into the sheer desolation and blinding whiteness of everything made me realize I was experiencing something very new.When I flew out onto the ice and stepped out of the plane, I was amazed that the area could somehow be even more desolate. Bright white snowy ice goes in every direction, broken up by pressure ridges that form when ice sheets collide. The sun is low, and seems to move horizontally only. It is very hard to tell the time. The air temperature is really variable. On our first trip in 2022, it really wasn’t (relatively) that cold — only around minus 5 or 10 degrees during the day. On our second trip in 2024, we were hit by minus 30 almost every day, and with winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour. The last night we were on the ice that year, it warmed up a bit to minus 10 to 20, but the winds kicked up and started blowing snow onto the heaters attached to our tents. Those heaters started failing one by one as the blowing snow covered them, blocking airflow. After our heater failed, I asked myself, while warm in my bed, whether I wanted to go outside to the command tent for help or try to make it until dawn in my thick sleeping bag. I picked the first option, but mostly because the heater control was beeping loudly right next to my bunk, so I couldn’t sleep anyway. Shout-out to the ASL staff who ran around fixing heaters all night!Q: How do you survive in a place generally inhospitable to humans?A: In partnership with the native population, ASL brings a lot of gear — from insulated, heated tents and communications equipment to large snowblowers to keep the runway clear. A few months before OIC, participants attend training on what conditions you will be exposed to and how to protect yourself through appropriate clothing, and how to use survival gear in case of an emergency.Q: Do you have plans to return to the Arctic?  A: We are hoping to go back this winter as part of OIC 2026! We plan to test a through-ice communication device. Communicating through 4 to 12 feet of ice is pretty tricky but could allow us to connect underwater drones and stationary sensors under the ice to the rest of the world. To support the through-ice communication system, we will repurpose our sensor-node boxes deployed during OIC 2024. If this setup works, those same boxes could be used as control centers for all sorts of undersea systems and relay information about the under-ice world back home via satellite.Q: What lessons learned will you bring to your upcoming trip, and any potential future trips?A: After the first trip, I had a visceral understanding of how hard operating there is. Prototyping of systems becomes a different game. Prototypes are often fragile, but fragility doesn’t go over too well on the ice. So, there is a robustification step, which can take some time.On this last trip, I realized that you have to really be careful with your energy expenditure and pace yourself. While the average adult may require about 2,000 calories a day, an Arctic explorer may burn several times more than that exerting themselves (we do a lot of walking around camp) and keeping warm. Usually, we live on the same freeze-dried food that you would take on camping trips. Each package only has so many calories, so you find yourself eating multiple of those and supplementing with lots of snacks such as Clif Bars or, my favorite, Babybel cheeses (which I bring myself). You also have to be really careful of dehydration. Your body’s reaction to extreme cold is to reduce blood flow to your skin, which generally results in less liquid in your body. We have to drink constantly — water, cocoa, and coffee — to avoid dehydration.We only have access to the ice every two years with the Navy, so we try to make the most of our time. In the several-day lead-up to our field expedition, my research partner Ben and I were really pushing ourselves to ready our sensor nodes for deployment and probably not eating and drinking as regularly as we should. When we ventured to our sensor deployment site about 5 kilometers outside of camp, I had to learn to slow down so I didn’t sweat under my gear, as sweating in the extremely cold conditions can quickly lead to hypothermia. I also learned to pay more attention to exposed places on my face, as I got a bit of frostnip around my goggles.Operating in the Arctic is a fine balance: you can’t spend too much time out there, but you also can’t rush. More

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      Climate Action Learning Lab helps state and local leaders identify and implement effective climate mitigation strategies

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      This spring, J-PAL North America — a regional office of MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) — launched its first ever Learning Lab, centered on climate action. The Learning Lab convened a cohort of government leaders who are enacting a broad range of policies and programs to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. Through the Learning Lab, participants explored how to embed randomized evaluation into promising solutions to determine how to maximize changes in behavior — a strategy that can help advance decarbonization in the most cost-effective ways to benefit all communities. The inaugural cohort included more than 25 participants from state agencies and cities, including the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency, and the cities of Lincoln, Nebraska; Newport News, Virginia; Orlando, Florida; and Philadelphia.“State and local governments have demonstrated tremendous leadership in designing and implementing decarbonization policies and climate action plans over the past few years,” said Peter Christensen, scientific advisor of the J-PAL North America Environment, Energy, and Climate Change Sector. “And while these are informed by scientific projections on which programs and technologies may effectively and equitably reduce emissions, the projection methods involve a lot of assumptions. It can be challenging for governments to determine whether their programs are actually achieving the expected level of emissions reductions that we desperately need. The Climate Action Learning Lab was designed to support state and local governments in addressing this need — helping them to rigorously evaluate their programs to detect their true impact.”From May to July, the Learning Lab offered a suite of resources for participants to leverage rigorous evaluation to identify effective and equitable climate mitigation solutions. Offerings included training lectures, one-on-one strategy sessions, peer learning engagements, and researcher collaboration. State and local leaders built skills and knowledge in evidence generation and use, reviewed and applied research insights to their own programmatic areas, and identified priority research questions to guide evidence-building and decision-making practices. Programs prioritized for evaluation covered topics such as compliance with building energy benchmarking policies, take-up rates of energy-efficient home improvement programs such as heat pumps and Solar for All, and scoring criteria for affordable housing development programs.“We appreciated the chance to learn about randomized evaluation methodology, and how this impact assessment tool could be utilized in our ongoing climate action planning. With so many potential initiatives to pursue, this approach will help us prioritize our time and resources on the most effective solutions,” said Anna Shugoll, program manager at the City of Philadelphia’s Office of Sustainability.This phase of the Learning Lab was possible thanks to grant funding from J-PAL North America’s longtime supporter and collaborator Arnold Ventures. The work culminated in an in-person summit in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on July 23, where Learning Lab participants delivered a presentation on their jurisdiction’s priority research questions and strategic evaluation plans. They also connected with researchers in the J-PAL network to further explore impact evaluation opportunities for promising decarbonization programs.“The Climate Action Learning Lab has helped us identify research questions for some of the City of Orlando’s deep decarbonization goals. J-PAL staff, along with researchers in the J-PAL network, worked hard to bridge the gap between behavior change theory and the applied, tangible benefits that we achieve through rigorous evaluation of our programs,” said Brittany Sellers, assistant director for sustainability, resilience and future-ready for Orlando. “Whether we’re discussing an energy-efficiency policy for some of the biggest buildings in the City of Orlando or expanding [electric vehicle] adoption across the city, it’s been very easy to communicate some of these high-level research concepts and what they can help us do to actually pursue our decarbonization goals.”The next phase of the Climate Action Learning Lab will center on building partnerships between jurisdictions and researchers in the J-PAL network to explore the launch of randomized evaluations, deepening the community of practice among current cohort members, and cultivating a broad culture of evidence building and use in the climate space. “The Climate Action Learning Lab provided a critical space for our city to collaborate with other cities and states seeking to implement similar decarbonization programs, as well as with researchers in the J-PAL network to help rigorously evaluate these programs,” said Daniel Collins, innovation team director at the City of Newport News. “We look forward to further collaboration and opportunities to learn from evaluations of our mitigation efforts so we, as a city, can better allocate resources to the most effective solutions.”The Climate Action Learning Lab is one of several offerings under the J-PAL North America Evidence for Climate Action Project. The project’s goal is to convene an influential network of researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to generate rigorous evidence to identify and advance equitable, high-impact policy solutions to climate change in the United States. In addition to the Learning Lab, J-PAL North America will launch a climate special topic request for proposals this fall to fund research on climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives. J-PAL will welcome applications from both research partnerships formed through the Learning Lab as well as other eligible applicants.Local government leaders, researchers, potential partners, or funders committed to advancing climate solutions that work, and who want to learn more about the Evidence for Climate Action Project, may email na_eecc@povertyactionlab.org or subscribe to the J-PAL North America Climate Action newsletter. More

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      in Environment

      Simpler models can outperform deep learning at climate prediction

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      Environmental scientists are increasingly using enormous artificial intelligence models to make predictions about changes in weather and climate, but a new study by MIT researchers shows that bigger models are not always better.The team demonstrates that, in certain climate scenarios, much simpler, physics-based models can generate more accurate predictions than state-of-the-art deep-learning models.Their analysis also reveals that a benchmarking technique commonly used to evaluate machine-learning techniques for climate predictions can be distorted by natural variations in the data, like fluctuations in weather patterns. This could lead someone to believe a deep-learning model makes more accurate predictions when that is not the case.The researchers developed a more robust way of evaluating these techniques, which shows that, while simple models are more accurate when estimating regional surface temperatures, deep-learning approaches can be the best choice for estimating local rainfall.They used these results to enhance a simulation tool known as a climate emulator, which can rapidly simulate the effect of human activities onto a future climate.The researchers see their work as a “cautionary tale” about the risk of deploying large AI models for climate science. While deep-learning models have shown incredible success in domains such as natural language, climate science contains a proven set of physical laws and approximations, and the challenge becomes how to incorporate those into AI models.“We are trying to develop models that are going to be useful and relevant for the kinds of things that decision-makers need going forward when making climate policy choices. While it might be attractive to use the latest, big-picture machine-learning model on a climate problem, what this study shows is that stepping back and really thinking about the problem fundamentals is important and useful,” says study senior author Noelle Selin, a professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS) and the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS).Selin’s co-authors are lead author Björn Lütjens, a former EAPS postdoc who is now a research scientist at IBM Research; senior author Raffaele Ferrari, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Oceanography in EAPS and co-director of the Lorenz Center; and Duncan Watson-Parris, assistant professor at the University of California at San Diego. Selin and Ferrari are also co-principal investigators of the Bringing Computation to the Climate Challenge project, out of which this research emerged. The paper appears today in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.Comparing emulatorsBecause the Earth’s climate is so complex, running a state-of-the-art climate model to predict how pollution levels will impact environmental factors like temperature can take weeks on the world’s most powerful supercomputers.Scientists often create climate emulators, simpler approximations of a state-of-the art climate model, which are faster and more accessible. A policymaker could use a climate emulator to see how alternative assumptions on greenhouse gas emissions would affect future temperatures, helping them develop regulations.But an emulator isn’t very useful if it makes inaccurate predictions about the local impacts of climate change. While deep learning has become increasingly popular for emulation, few studies have explored whether these models perform better than tried-and-true approaches.The MIT researchers performed such a study. They compared a traditional technique called linear pattern scaling (LPS) with a deep-learning model using a common benchmark dataset for evaluating climate emulators.Their results showed that LPS outperformed deep-learning models on predicting nearly all parameters they tested, including temperature and precipitation.“Large AI methods are very appealing to scientists, but they rarely solve a completely new problem, so implementing an existing solution first is necessary to find out whether the complex machine-learning approach actually improves upon it,” says Lütjens.Some initial results seemed to fly in the face of the researchers’ domain knowledge. The powerful deep-learning model should have been more accurate when making predictions about precipitation, since those data don’t follow a linear pattern.They found that the high amount of natural variability in climate model runs can cause the deep learning model to perform poorly on unpredictable long-term oscillations, like El Niño/La Niña. This skews the benchmarking scores in favor of LPS, which averages out those oscillations.Constructing a new evaluationFrom there, the researchers constructed a new evaluation with more data that address natural climate variability. With this new evaluation, the deep-learning model performed slightly better than LPS for local precipitation, but LPS was still more accurate for temperature predictions.“It is important to use the modeling tool that is right for the problem, but in order to do that you also have to set up the problem the right way in the first place,” Selin says.Based on these results, the researchers incorporated LPS into a climate emulation platform to predict local temperature changes in different emission scenarios.“We are not advocating that LPS should always be the goal. It still has limitations. For instance, LPS doesn’t predict variability or extreme weather events,” Ferrari adds.Rather, they hope their results emphasize the need to develop better benchmarking techniques, which could provide a fuller picture of which climate emulation technique is best suited for a particular situation.“With an improved climate emulation benchmark, we could use more complex machine-learning methods to explore problems that are currently very hard to address, like the impacts of aerosols or estimations of extreme precipitation,” Lütjens says.Ultimately, more accurate benchmarking techniques will help ensure policymakers are making decisions based on the best available information.The researchers hope others build on their analysis, perhaps by studying additional improvements to climate emulation methods and benchmarks. Such research could explore impact-oriented metrics like drought indicators and wildfire risks, or new variables like regional wind speeds.This research is funded, in part, by Schmidt Sciences, LLC, and is part of the MIT Climate Grand Challenges team for “Bringing Computation to the Climate Challenge.” More

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      in Environment

      Study links rising temperatures and declining moods

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      Rising global temperatures affect human activity in many ways. Now, a new study illuminates an important dimension of the problem: Very hot days are associated with more negative moods, as shown by a large-scale look at social media postings.Overall, the study examines 1.2 billion social media posts from 157 countries over the span of a year. The research finds that when the temperature rises above 95 degrees Fahrenheit, or 35 degrees Celsius, expressed sentiments become about 25 percent more negative in lower-income countries and about 8 percent more negative in better-off countries. Extreme heat affects people emotionally, not just physically.“Our study reveals that rising temperatures don’t just threaten physical health or economic productivity — they also affect how people feel, every day, all over the world,” says Siqi Zheng, a professor in MIT’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP) and Center for Real Estate (CRE), and co-author of a new paper detailing the results. “This work opens up a new frontier in understanding how climate stress is shaping human well-being at a planetary scale.”The paper, “Unequal Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Global Human Sentiment,” is published today in the journal One Earth. The authors are Jianghao Wang, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Nicolas Guetta-Jeanrenaud SM ’22, a graduate of MIT’s Technology and Policy Program (TPP) and Institute for Data, Systems, and Society; Juan Palacios, a visiting assistant professor at MIT’s Sustainable Urbanization Lab (SUL) and an assistant professor Maastricht University; Yichun Fan, of SUL and Duke University; Devika Kakkar, of Harvard University; Nick Obradovich, of SUL and the Laureate Institute for Brain Research in Tulsa; and Zheng, who is the STL Champion Professor of Urban and Real Estate Sustainability at CRE and DUSP. Zheng is also the faculty director of CRE and founded the Sustainable Urbanization Lab in 2019.Social media as a windowTo conduct the study, the researchers evaluated 1.2 billion posts from the social media platforms Twitter and Weibo, all of which appeared in 2019. They used a natural language processing technique called Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), to analyze 65 languages across the 157 countries in the study.Each social media post was given a sentiment rating from 0.0 (for very negative posts) to 1.0 (for very positive posts). The posts were then aggregated geographically to 2,988 locations and evaluated in correlation with area weather. From this method, the researchers could then deduce the connection between extreme temperatures and expressed sentiment.“Social media data provides us with an unprecedented window into human emotions across cultures and continents,” Wang says. “This approach allows us to measure emotional impacts of climate change at a scale that traditional surveys simply cannot achieve, giving us real-time insights into how temperature affects human sentiment worldwide.”To assess the effects of temperatures on sentiment in higher-income and middle-to-lower-income settings, the scholars also used a World Bank cutoff level of gross national income per-capita annual income of $13,845, finding that in places with incomes below that, the effects of heat on mood were triple those found in economically more robust settings.“Thanks to the global coverage of our data, we find that people in low- and middle-income countries experience sentiment declines from extreme heat that are three times greater than those in high-income countries,” Fan says. “This underscores the importance of incorporating adaptation into future climate impact projections.”In the long runUsing long-term global climate models, and expecting some adaptation to heat, the researchers also produced a long-range estimate of the effects of extreme temperatures on sentiment by the year 2100. Extending the current findings to that time frame, they project a 2.3 percent worsening of people’s emotional well-being based on high temperatures alone by then — although that is a far-range projection.“It’s clear now, with our present study adding to findings from prior studies, that weather alters sentiment on a global scale,” Obradovich says. “And as weather and climates change, helping individuals become more resilient to shocks to their emotional states will be an important component of overall societal adaptation.”The researchers note that there are many nuances to the subject, and room for continued research in this area. For one thing, social media users are not likely to be a perfectly representative portion of the population, with young children and the elderly almost certainly using social media less than other people. However, as the researchers observe in the paper, the very young and elderly are probably particularly vulnerable to heat shocks, making the response to hot weather possible even larger than their study can capture.The research is part of the Global Sentiment project led by the MIT Sustainable Urbanization Lab, and the study’s dataset is publicly available. Zheng and other co-authors have previously investigated these dynamics using social media, although never before at this scale.“We hope this resource helps researchers, policymakers, and communities better prepare for a warming world,” Zheng says.The research was supported, in part, by Zheng’s chaired professorship research fund, and grants Wang received from the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  More

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      in Energy

      Jessika Trancik named director of the Sociotechnical Systems Research Center

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      Jessika Trancik, a professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, has been named the new director of the Sociotechnical Systems Research Center (SSRC), effective July 1. The SSRC convenes and supports researchers focused on problems and solutions at the intersection of technology and its societal impacts.Trancik conducts research on technology innovation and energy systems. At the Trancik Lab, she and her team develop methods drawing on engineering knowledge, data science, and policy analysis. Their work examines the pace and drivers of technological change, helping identify where innovation is occurring most rapidly, how emerging technologies stack up against existing systems, and which performance thresholds matter most for real-world impact. Her models have been used to inform government innovation policy and have been applied across a wide range of industries.“Professor Trancik’s deep expertise in the societal implications of technology, and her commitment to developing impactful solutions across industries, make her an excellent fit to lead SSRC,” says Maria C. Yang, interim dean of engineering and William E. Leonhard (1940) Professor of Mechanical Engineering.Much of Trancik’s research focuses on the domain of energy systems, and establishing methods for energy technology evaluation, including of their costs, performance, and environmental impacts. She covers a wide range of energy services — including electricity, transportation, heating, and industrial processes. Her research has applications in solar and wind energy, energy storage, low-carbon fuels, electric vehicles, and nuclear fission. Trancik is also known for her research on extreme events in renewable energy availability.A prolific researcher, Trancik has helped measure progress and inform the development of solar photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and other low-carbon technologies — and anticipate future trends. One of her widely cited contributions includes quantifying learning rates and identifying where targeted investments can most effectively accelerate innovation. These tools have been used by U.S. federal agencies, international organizations, and the private sector to shape energy R&D portfolios, climate policy, and infrastructure planning.Trancik is committed to engaging and informing the public on energy consumption. She and her team developed the app carboncounter.com, which helps users choose cars with low costs and low environmental impacts.As an educator, Trancik teaches courses for students across MIT’s five schools and the MIT Schwarzman College of Computing.“The question guiding my teaching and research is how do we solve big societal challenges with technology, and how can we be more deliberate in developing and supporting technologies to get us there?” Trancik said in an article about course IDS.521/IDS.065 (Energy Systems for Climate Change Mitigation).Trancik received her undergraduate degree in materials science and engineering from Cornell University. As a Rhodes Scholar, she completed her PhD in materials science at the University of Oxford. She subsequently worked for the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, and the Earth Institute at Columbia University. After serving as an Omidyar Research Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute, she joined MIT in 2010 as a faculty member.Trancik succeeds Fotini Christia, the Ford International Professor of Social Sciences in the Department of Political Science and director of IDSS, who previously served as director of SSRC. More

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      in Energy

      Surprisingly diverse innovations led to dramatically cheaper solar panels

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      The cost of solar panels has dropped by more than 99 percent since the 1970s, enabling widespread adoption of photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into electricity.A new MIT study drills down on specific innovations that enabled such dramatic cost reductions, revealing that technical advances across a web of diverse research efforts and industries played a pivotal role.The findings could help renewable energy companies make more effective R&D investment decisions and aid policymakers in identifying areas to prioritize to spur growth in manufacturing and deployment.The researchers’ modeling approach shows that key innovations often originated outside the solar sector, including advances in semiconductor fabrication, metallurgy, glass manufacturing, oil and gas drilling, construction processes, and even legal domains.“Our results show just how intricate the process of cost improvement is, and how much scientific and engineering advances, often at a very basic level, are at the heart of these cost reductions. A lot of knowledge was drawn from different domains and industries, and this network of knowledge is what makes these technologies improve,” says study senior author Jessika Trancik, a professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems, and Society.Trancik is joined on the paper by co-lead authors Goksin Kavlak, a former IDSS graduate student and postdoc who is now a senior energy associate at the Brattle Group; Magdalena Klemun, a former IDSS graduate student and postdoc who is now an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University; former MIT postdoc Ajinkya Kamat; as well as Brittany Smith and Robert Margolis of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The research appears today in PLOS ONE.Identifying innovationsThis work builds on mathematical models that the researchers previously developed that tease out the effects of engineering technologies on the cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules and systems.In this study, the researchers aimed to dig even deeper into the scientific advances that drove those cost declines.They combined their quantitative cost model with a detailed, qualitative analysis of innovations that affected the costs of PV system materials, manufacturing steps, and deployment processes.“Our quantitative cost model guided the qualitative analysis, allowing us to look closely at innovations in areas that are hard to measure due to a lack of quantitative data,” Kavlak says.Building on earlier work identifying key cost drivers — such as the number of solar cells per module, wiring efficiency, and silicon wafer area — the researchers conducted a structured scan of the literature for innovations likely to affect these drivers. Next, they grouped these innovations to identify patterns, revealing clusters that reduced costs by improving materials or prefabricating components to streamline manufacturing and installation. Finally, the team tracked industry origins and timing for each innovation, and consulted domain experts to zero in on the most significant innovations.All told, they identified 81 unique innovations that affected PV system costs since 1970, from improvements in antireflective coated glass to the implementation of fully online permitting interfaces.“With innovations, you can always go to a deeper level, down to things like raw materials processing techniques, so it was challenging to know when to stop. Having that quantitative model to ground our qualitative analysis really helped,” Trancik says.They chose to separate PV module costs from so-called balance-of-system (BOS) costs, which cover things like mounting systems, inverters, and wiring.PV modules, which are wired together to form solar panels, are mass-produced and can be exported, while many BOS components are designed, built, and sold at the local level.“By examining innovations both at the BOS level and within the modules, we identify the different types of innovations that have emerged in these two parts of PV technology,” Kavlak says.BOS costs depend more on soft technologies, nonphysical elements such as permitting procedures, which have contributed significantly less to PV’s past cost improvement compared to hardware innovations.“Often, it comes down to delays. Time is money, and if you have delays on construction sites and unpredictable processes, that affects these balance-of-system costs,” Trancik says.Innovations such as automated permitting software, which flags code-compliant systems for fast-track approval, show promise. Though not yet quantified in this study, the team’s framework could support future analysis of their economic impact and similar innovations that streamline deployment processes.Interconnected industriesThe researchers found that innovations from the semiconductor, electronics, metallurgy, and petroleum industries played a major role in reducing both PV and BOS costs, but BOS costs were also impacted by innovations in software engineering and electric utilities.Noninnovation factors, like efficiency gains from bulk purchasing and the accumulation of knowledge in the solar power industry, also reduced some cost variables.In addition, while most PV panel innovations originated in research organizations or industry, many BOS innovations were developed by city governments, U.S. states, or professional associations.“I knew there was a lot going on with this technology, but the diversity of all these fields and how closely linked they are, and the fact that we can clearly see that network through this analysis, was interesting,” Trancik says.“PV was very well-positioned to absorb innovations from other industries — thanks to the right timing, physical compatibility, and supportive policies to adapt innovations for PV applications,” Klemun adds.The analysis also reveals the role greater computing power could play in reducing BOS costs through advances like automated engineering review systems and remote site assessment software.“In terms of knowledge spillovers, what we’ve seen so far in PV may really just be the beginning,” Klemun says, pointing to the expanding role of robotics and AI-driven digital tools in driving future cost reductions and quality improvements.In addition to their qualitative analysis, the researchers demonstrated how this methodology could be used to estimate the quantitative impact of a particular innovation if one has the numerical data to plug into the cost equation.For instance, using information about material prices and manufacturing procedures, they estimate that wire sawing, a technique which was introduced in the 1980s, led to an overall PV system cost decrease of $5 per watt by reducing silicon losses and increasing throughput during fabrication.“Through this retrospective analysis, you learn something valuable for future strategy because you can see what worked and what didn’t work, and the models can also be applied prospectively. It is also useful to know what adjacent sectors may help support improvement in a particular technology,” Trancik says.Moving forward, the researchers plan to apply this methodology to a wide range of technologies, including other renewable energy systems. They also want to further study soft technology to identify innovations or processes that could accelerate cost reductions.“Although the process of technological innovation may seem like a black box, we’ve shown that you can study it just like any other phenomena,” Trancik says.This research is funded, in part, by the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energies Technology Office. More

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      in Environment

      Eco-driving measures could significantly reduce vehicle emissions

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      Any motorist who has ever waited through multiple cycles for a traffic light to turn green knows how annoying signalized intersections can be. But sitting at intersections isn’t just a drag on drivers’ patience — unproductive vehicle idling could contribute as much as 15 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. land transportation.A large-scale modeling study led by MIT researchers reveals that eco-driving measures, which can involve dynamically adjusting vehicle speeds to reduce stopping and excessive acceleration, could significantly reduce those CO2 emissions.Using a powerful artificial intelligence method called deep reinforcement learning, the researchers conducted an in-depth impact assessment of the factors affecting vehicle emissions in three major U.S. cities.Their analysis indicates that fully adopting eco-driving measures could cut annual city-wide intersection carbon emissions by 11 to 22 percent, without slowing traffic throughput or affecting vehicle and traffic safety.Even if only 10 percent of vehicles on the road employ eco-driving, it would result in 25 to 50 percent of the total reduction in CO2 emissions, the researchers found.In addition, dynamically optimizing speed limits at about 20 percent of intersections provides 70 percent of the total emission benefits. This indicates that eco-driving measures could be implemented gradually while still having measurable, positive impacts on mitigating climate change and improving public health.

      An animated GIF compares what 20% eco-driving adoption looks like to 100% eco-driving adoption.Image: Courtesy of the researchers

      “Vehicle-based control strategies like eco-driving can move the needle on climate change reduction. We’ve shown here that modern machine-learning tools, like deep reinforcement learning, can accelerate the kinds of analysis that support sociotechnical decision making. This is just the tip of the iceberg,” says senior author Cathy Wu, the Class of 1954 Career Development Associate Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS) at MIT, and a member of the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS).She is joined on the paper by lead author Vindula Jayawardana, an MIT graduate student; as well as MIT graduate students Ao Qu, Cameron Hickert, and Edgar Sanchez; MIT undergraduate Catherine Tang; Baptiste Freydt, a graduate student at ETH Zurich; and Mark Taylor and Blaine Leonard of the Utah Department of Transportation. The research appears in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies.A multi-part modeling studyTraffic control measures typically call to mind fixed infrastructure, like stop signs and traffic signals. But as vehicles become more technologically advanced, it presents an opportunity for eco-driving, which is a catch-all term for vehicle-based traffic control measures like the use of dynamic speeds to reduce energy consumption.In the near term, eco-driving could involve speed guidance in the form of vehicle dashboards or smartphone apps. In the longer term, eco-driving could involve intelligent speed commands that directly control the acceleration of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles through vehicle-to-infrastructure communication systems.“Most prior work has focused on how to implement eco-driving. We shifted the frame to consider the question of should we implement eco-driving. If we were to deploy this technology at scale, would it make a difference?” Wu says.To answer that question, the researchers embarked on a multifaceted modeling study that would take the better part of four years to complete.They began by identifying 33 factors that influence vehicle emissions, including temperature, road grade, intersection topology, age of the vehicle, traffic demand, vehicle types, driver behavior, traffic signal timing, road geometry, etc.“One of the biggest challenges was making sure we were diligent and didn’t leave out any major factors,” Wu says.Then they used data from OpenStreetMap, U.S. geological surveys, and other sources to create digital replicas of more than 6,000 signalized intersections in three cities — Atlanta, San Francisco, and Los Angeles — and simulated more than a million traffic scenarios.The researchers used deep reinforcement learning to optimize each scenario for eco-driving to achieve the maximum emissions benefits.Reinforcement learning optimizes the vehicles’ driving behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a high-fidelity traffic simulator, rewarding vehicle behaviors that are more energy-efficient while penalizing those that are not.The researchers cast the problem as a decentralized cooperative multi-agent control problem, where the vehicles cooperate to achieve overall energy efficiency, even among non-participating vehicles, and they act in a decentralized manner, avoiding the need for costly communication between vehicles.However, training vehicle behaviors that generalize across diverse intersection traffic scenarios was a major challenge. The researchers observed that some scenarios are more similar to one another than others, such as scenarios with the same number of lanes or the same number of traffic signal phases.As such, the researchers trained separate reinforcement learning models for different clusters of traffic scenarios, yielding better emission benefits overall.But even with the help of AI, analyzing citywide traffic at the network level would be so computationally intensive it could take another decade to unravel, Wu says.Instead, they broke the problem down and solved each eco-driving scenario at the individual intersection level.“We carefully constrained the impact of eco-driving control at each intersection on neighboring intersections. In this way, we dramatically simplified the problem, which enabled us to perform this analysis at scale, without introducing unknown network effects,” she says.Significant emissions benefitsWhen they analyzed the results, the researchers found that full adoption of eco-driving could result in intersection emissions reductions of between 11 and 22 percent.These benefits differ depending on the layout of a city’s streets. A denser city like San Francisco has less room to implement eco-driving between intersections, offering a possible explanation for reduced emission savings, while Atlanta could see greater benefits given its higher speed limits.Even if only 10 percent of vehicles employ eco-driving, a city could still realize 25 to 50 percent of the total emissions benefit because of car-following dynamics: Non-eco-driving vehicles would follow controlled eco-driving vehicles as they optimize speed to pass smoothly through intersections, reducing their carbon emissions as well.In some cases, eco-driving could also increase vehicle throughput by minimizing emissions. However, Wu cautions that increasing throughput could result in more drivers taking to the roads, reducing emissions benefits.And while their analysis of widely used safety metrics known as surrogate safety measures, such as time to collision, suggest that eco-driving is as safe as human driving, it could cause unexpected behavior in human drivers. More research is needed to fully understand potential safety impacts, Wu says.Their results also show that eco-driving could provide even greater benefits when combined with alternative transportation decarbonization solutions. For instance, 20 percent eco-driving adoption in San Francisco would cut emission levels by 7 percent, but when combined with the projected adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles, it would cut emissions by 17 percent.“This is a first attempt to systematically quantify network-wide environmental benefits of eco-driving. This is a great research effort that will serve as a key reference for others to build on in the assessment of eco-driving systems,” says Hesham Rakha, the Samuel L. Pritchard Professor of Engineering at Virginia Tech, who was not involved with this research.And while the researchers focus on carbon emissions, the benefits are highly correlated with improvements in fuel consumption, energy use, and air quality.“This is almost a free intervention. We already have smartphones in our cars, and we are rapidly adopting cars with more advanced automation features. For something to scale quickly in practice, it must be relatively simple to implement and shovel-ready. Eco-driving fits that bill,” Wu says.This work is funded, in part, by Amazon and the Utah Department of Transportation. More

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      in Environment

      Why animals are a critical part of forest carbon absorption

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      A lot of attention has been paid to how climate change can drive biodiversity loss. Now, MIT researchers have shown the reverse is also true: Reductions in biodiversity can jeopardize one of Earth’s most powerful levers for mitigating climate change.In a paper published in PNAS, the researchers showed that following deforestation, naturally-regrowing tropical forests, with healthy populations of seed-dispersing animals, can absorb up to four times more carbon than similar forests with fewer seed-dispersing animals.Because tropical forests are currently Earth’s largest land-based carbon sink, the findings improve our understanding of a potent tool to fight climate change.“The results underscore the importance of animals in maintaining healthy, carbon-rich tropical forests,” says Evan Fricke, a research scientist in the MIT Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the lead author of the new study. “When seed-dispersing animals decline, we risk weakening the climate-mitigating power of tropical forests.”Fricke’s co-authors on the paper include César Terrer, the Tianfu Career Development Associate Professor at MIT; Charles Harvey, an MIT professor of civil and environmental engineering; and Susan Cook-Patton of The Nature Conservancy.The study combines a wide array of data on animal biodiversity, movement, and seed dispersal across thousands of animal species, along with carbon accumulation data from thousands of tropical forest sites.The researchers say the results are the clearest evidence yet that seed-dispersing animals play an important role in forests’ ability to absorb carbon, and that the findings underscore the need to address biodiversity loss and climate change as connected parts of a delicate ecosystem rather as separate problems in isolation.“It’s been clear that climate change threatens biodiversity, and now this study shows how biodiversity losses can exacerbate climate change,” Fricke says. “Understanding that two-way street helps us understand the connections between these challenges, and how we can address them. These are challenges we need to tackle in tandem, and the contribution of animals to tropical forest carbon shows that there are win-wins possible when supporting biodiversity and fighting climate change at the same time.”Putting the pieces togetherThe next time you see a video of a monkey or bird enjoying a piece of fruit, consider that the animals are actually playing an important role in their ecosystems. Research has shown that by digesting the seeds and defecating somewhere else, animals can help with the germination, growth, and long-term survival of the plant.Fricke has been studying animals that disperse seeds for nearly 15 years. His previous research has shown that without animal seed dispersal, trees have lower survival rates and a harder time keeping up with environmental changes.“We’re now thinking more about the roles that animals might play in affecting the climate through seed dispersal,” Fricke says. “We know that in tropical forests, where more than three-quarters of trees rely on animals for seed dispersal, the decline of seed dispersal could affect not just the biodiversity of forests, but how they bounce back from deforestation. We also know that all around the world, animal populations are declining.”Regrowing forests is an often-cited way to mitigate the effects of climate change, but the influence of biodiversity on forests’ ability to absorb carbon has not been fully quantified, especially at larger scales.For their study, the researchers combined data from thousands of separate studies and used new tools for quantifying disparate but interconnected ecological processes. After analyzing data from more than 17,000 vegetation plots, the researchers decided to focus on tropical regions, looking at data on where seed-dispersing animals live, how many seeds each animal disperses, and how they affect germination.The researchers then incorporated data showing how human activity impacts different seed-dispersing animals’ presence and movement. They found, for example, that animals move less when they consume seeds in areas with a bigger human footprint.Combining all that data, the researchers created an index of seed-dispersal disruption that revealed a link between human activities and declines in animal seed dispersal. They then analyzed the relationship between that index and records of carbon accumulation in naturally regrowing tropical forests over time, controlling for factors like drought conditions, the prevalence of fires, and the presence of grazing livestock.“It was a big task to bring data from thousands of field studies together into a map of the disruption of seed dispersal,” Fricke says. “But it lets us go beyond just asking what animals are there to actually quantifying the ecological roles those animals are playing and understanding how human pressures affect them.”The researchers acknowledged that the quality of animal biodiversity data could be improved and introduces uncertainty into their findings. They also note that other processes, such as pollination, seed predation, and competition influence seed dispersal and can constrain forest regrowth. Still, the findings were in line with recent estimates.“What’s particularly new about this study is we’re actually getting the numbers around these effects,” Fricke says. “Finding that seed dispersal disruption explains a fourfold difference in carbon absorption across the thousands of tropical regrowth sites included in the study points to seed dispersers as a major lever on tropical forest carbon.”Quantifying lost carbonIn forests identified as potential regrowth sites, the researchers found seed-dispersal declines were linked to reductions in carbon absorption each year averaging 1.8 metric tons per hectare, equal to a reduction in regrowth of 57 percent.The researchers say the results show natural regrowth projects will be more impactful in landscapes where seed-dispersing animals have been less disrupted, including areas that were recently deforested, are near high-integrity forests, or have higher tree cover.“In the discussion around planting trees versus allowing trees to regrow naturally, regrowth is basically free, whereas planting trees costs money, and it also leads to less diverse forests,” Terrer says. “With these results, now we can understand where natural regrowth can happen effectively because there are animals planting the seeds for free, and we also can identify areas where, because animals are affected, natural regrowth is not going to happen, and therefore planting trees actively is necessary.”To support seed-dispersing animals, the researchers encourage interventions that protect or improve their habitats and that reduce pressures on species, ranging from wildlife corridors to restrictions on wildlife trade. Restoring the ecological roles of seed dispersers is also possible by reintroducing seed-dispersing species where they’ve been lost or planting certain trees that attract those animals.The findings could also make modeling the climate impact of naturally regrowing forests more accurate.“Overlooking the impact of seed-dispersal disruption may overestimate natural regrowth potential in many areas and underestimate it in others,” the authors write.The researchers believe the findings open up new avenues of inquiry for the field.“Forests provide a huge climate subsidy by sequestering about a third of all human carbon emissions,” Terrer says. “Tropical forests are by far the most important carbon sink globally, but in the last few decades, their ability to sequester carbon has been declining. We will next explore how much of that decline is due to an increase in extreme droughts or fires versus declines in animal seed dispersal.”Overall, the researchers hope the study helps improves our understanding of the planet’s complex ecological processes.“When we lose our animals, we’re losing the ecological infrastructure that keeps our tropical forests healthy and resilient,” Fricke says.The research was supported by the MIT Climate and Sustainability Consortium, the Government of Portugal, and the Bezos Earth Fund. More

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      in Environment

      Study shows how a common fertilizer ingredient benefits plants

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      Lanthanides are a class of rare earth elements that in many countries are added to fertilizer as micronutrients to stimulate plant growth. But little is known about how they are absorbed by plants or influence photosynthesis, potentially leaving their benefits untapped.Now, researchers from MIT have shed light on how lanthanides move through and operate within plants. These insights could help farmers optimize their use to grow some of the world’s most popular crops.Published today in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, the study shows that a single nanoscale dose of lanthanides applied to seeds can make some of the world’s most common crops more resilient to UV stress. The researchers also uncovered the chemical processes by which lanthanides interact with the chlorophyll pigments that drive photosynthesis, showing that different lanthanide elements strengthen chlorophyll by replacing the magnesium at its center.“This is a first step to better understand how these elements work in plants, and to provide an example of how they could be better delivered to plants, compared to simply applying them in the soil,” says Associate Professor Benedetto Marelli, who conducted the research with postdoc Giorgio Rizzo. “This is the first example of a thorough study showing the effects of lanthanides on chlorophyll, and their beneficial effects to protect plants from UV stress.”Inside plant connectionsCertain lanthanides are used as contrast agents in MRI and for applications including light-emitting diodes, solar cells, and lasers. Over the last 50 years, lanthanides have become increasingly used in agriculture to enhance crop yields, with China alone applying lanthanide-based fertilizers to nearly 4 million hectares of land each year.“Lanthanides have been considered for a long time to be biologically irrelevant, but that’s changed in agriculture, especially in China,” says Rizzo, the paper’s first author. “But we largely don’t know how lanthanides work to benefit plants — nor do we understand their uptake mechanisms from plant tissues.”Recent studies have shown that low concentrations of lanthanides can promote plant growth, root elongation, hormone synthesis, and stress tolerance, but higher doses can cause harm to plants. Striking the right balance has been hard because of our lack of understanding around how lanthanides are absorbed by plants or how they interact with root soil.For the study, the researchers leveraged seed coating and treatment technologies they previously developed to investigate the way the plant pigment chlorophyll interacts with lanthanides, both inside and outside of plants. Up until now, researchers haven’t been sure whether chlorophyll interacts with lanthanide ions at all.Chlorophyll drives photosynthesis, but the pigments lose their ability to efficiently absorb light when the magnesium ion at their core is removed. The researchers discovered that lanthanides can fill that void, helping chlorophyll pigments partially recover some of their optical properties in a process known as re-greening.“We found that lanthanides can boost several parameters of plant health,” Marelli says. “They mostly accumulate in the roots, but a small amount also makes its way to the leaves, and some of the new chlorophyll molecules made in leaves have lanthanides incorporated in their structure.”This study also offers the first experimental evidence that lanthanides can increase plant resilience to UV stress, something the researchers say was completely unexpected.“Chlorophylls are very sensitive pigments,” Rizzo says. “They can convert light to energy in plants, but when they are isolated from the cell structure, they rapidly hydrolyze and degrade. However, in the form with lanthanides at their center, they are pretty stable, even after extracting them from plant cells.”The researchers, using different spectroscopic techniques, found the benefits held across a range of staple crops, including chickpea, barley, corn, and soybeans.The findings could be used to boost crop yield and increase the resilience of some of the world’s most popular crops to extreme weather.“As we move into an environment where extreme heat and extreme climate events are more common, and particularly where we can have prolonged periods of sun in the field, we want to provide new ways to protect our plants,” Marelli says. “There are existing agrochemicals that can be applied to leaves for protecting plants from stressors such as UV, but they can be toxic, increase microplastics, and can require multiple applications. This could be a complementary way to protect plants from UV stress.”Identifying new applicationsThe researchers also found that larger lanthanide elements like lanthanum were more effective at strengthening chlorophyll pigments than smaller ones. Lanthanum is considered a low-value byproduct of rare earths mining, and can become a burden to the rare earth element (REE) supply chain due to the need to separate it from more desirable rare earths. Increasing the demand for lanthanum could diversify the economics of REEs and improve the stability of their supply chain, the scientists suggest.“This study shows what we could do with these lower-value metals,” Marelli says. “We know lanthanides are extremely useful in electronics, magnets, and energy. In the U.S., there’s a big push to recycle them. That’s why for the plant studies, we focused on lanthanum, being the most abundant, cheapest lanthanide ion.”Moving forward, the team plans to explore how lanthanides work with other biological molecules, including proteins in the human body.In agriculture, the team hopes to scale up its research to include field and greenhouse studies to continue testing the results of UV resilience on different crop types and in experimental farm conditions.“Lanthanides are already widely used in agriculture,” Rizzo says. “We hope this study provides evidence that allows more conscious use of them and also a new way to apply them through seed treatments.”The research was supported by the MIT Climate Grand Challenge and the Office for Naval Research. More