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The isotopic spread for each study siteThe overall linear relationship between δ2H and δ18O values for hair (n = 81) and toenails (n = 39), respectively, were (Fig. 2):$$delta^{2} {text{H}}_{{text{hair(VSMOW)}}} = , 0.89 times delta^{18} {text{O}}_{{text{hair(VSMOW)}}} {-} , 86.16,;{text{R}}^{2} = , 0.19,;p , < , 0.01$$ (1) $$delta^{2} {text{H}}_{{text{toenail(VSMOW)}}} = , 0.15 times delta^{18} {text{O}}_{{text{toenail(VSMOW)}}} {-} , 91.69,;{text{R}}^{2} = , 0.00,;p , = , 0.69$$ (2) Figure 2δ2H and δ18O values (‰) of all samples for both hair (δ2H: n = 81, δ18O: n = 82) and toenails (δ2H and δ18O: n = 39). The solid black line represents the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) [δ2H = 8 (times) δ18O + 10] and is included in the graph for comparison purposes. The regression lines between oxygen and hydrogen values for hair [δ2Hhair(VSMOW) = 0.89 × δ18Ohair(VSMOW) − 86.16, R2 = 0.19, p  − 82‰ were then split further where any samples with δ2Hhair values less than − 73‰ were initially classified as Site 2. These samples were then split again to either Site 2 (δ2Hhair ≥ 76‰) or Site 4 (δ2Hhair  − 73‰ were classified as Site 4. No samples could be classified as originating from Site 3. The second CART model was built for stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of toenails (Model 2) (Fig. 5b). The model included only two decision nodes in which the first predictor variable was δ2Htoenail value, where samples with values less than − 93‰ were predicted to be from Site 1. For toenail samples with hydrogen values greater than − 93‰, oxygen values were used to determine whether they could be classified as Site 2 or Site 4. Those samples with δ18Otoenail values less than 9.6‰ were classified as Site 2 and those with values greater than 9.6‰ were predicted as Site 4. No samples were predicted to be from Site 3 purely from stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in toenails. Finally, the third model consisted of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope values in both hair and toenail samples (Model 3) (Fig. 5c). Model 3 selected toenails as the best attribute for classification, which indicates that toenail isotope values are the better predictor when both hair and toenail samples are present for analysis from Sites 1–4. The model was similar to that of Model 2.Figure 5Decision trees developed from both δ2H and δ18O values of (a) hair [Model 1, trained with n = 65], (b) toenails [Model 2, trained with n = 32] and (c) of both hair and toenails [Model 3, trained with n = 28]. The predicted study site numbers are shown on the first row within each bubble. The proportions of samples in each node are shown as decimals for Sites 1, 2, 3, 4, respectively. The percentages indicate the proportion of samples within each sub-partition.Full size imageConfusion matrices (Table 1) were constructed for all three models to evaluate the performance of the classification models. Of the three models, Model 3 proved to be the most accurate model with an overall accuracy of 71.4% (see Supplementary Fig S2. online). The performance evaluation summary, including measures for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for all three models, is provided in (see Supplementary Table S3. online).Intra-individual differencesBoth hair and toenail samples were retrieved from 35 of the 86 individuals. The paired difference between δ2H values in hair and toenails of the same individual was tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank's test for non-normal data as the dataset failed the Shapiro–Wilk's normality test at the α = 0.05 significance level. Significant differences were found between δ2H values of hair (n = 35, mean = − 78.0‰, s.d. = 3.06) and toenails (n = 35, mean = − 90.9‰, s.d. = 3.27) from the same individual (p  0.05. Overall, the isotopic values of δ2H in hair were higher than those of toenail from the same individual by 13.0‰, on average, with a standard deviation of 8.4‰. For δ18O, the average was 1.5‰ with a standard deviation of 4.6‰ (Fig. 6).Figure 6(a) δ2H and (b) δ18O values in hair and toenails for all individuals that provided both tissue types (n = 35). Study site information are also shown by shapes. The standard deviations of each sample, ran in either duplicates or triplicates, are shown by error bars. Note that error bars cannot be seen for some samples due to small standard deviations. The average difference between the isotopic values of hair and toenail from the same individual were 13.0‰ with a standard deviation of 8.4‰ for δ2H and 1.5‰ with a standard deviation of 4.6‰ for δ18O.Full size imageThe linear relationships between δ2H in hair and toenails for all individuals were (see Supplementary Fig S3. online):$$delta^{2} {text{H}}_{{{text{hair}}}} = , 0.48 times delta^{2} {text{H}}_{{text{toenail }}} {-} , 34.72,;{text{R}}^{2} = , 0.16,;p , < , 0.05$$ (19) and for δ18O:$$delta^{18} {text{O}}_{{{text{hair}}}} = , 0.55 times delta^{18} {text{O}}_{{{text{toenail}}}} + , 5.16,;{text{R}}^{2} = , 0.13,;p , < 0.05$$ (20) Overall, both equations showed a weak relationship, as seen by the small R2 values. More

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