Ecology

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.This is a summary of: Omer, A. et al. The role of phylogenetic relatedness on alien plant success depends on the stage of invasion. Nat. Plants https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-022-01216-9 (2022). More

Nash, R. Wilderness and the American Mind (Yale University Press, 1982).
Google Scholar 
Kirchhoff, T. & Vicenzotti, V. A historical and systematic survey of European perceptions of wilderness. Environ. Values 23, 443–464 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Aplet, G., Thomson, J. & Wilbert, M. Indicators of wildness: Using attributes of the land to assess the context of wilderness in Wilderness Science in a Time of Change (eds. McCool, S.F., Cole, D.N., Borrie, W.T., O’Loughlin, J.) 89–98 (USDA Forest Service, RMRS-P-15-Vol-2, 2000).Watson, J. E. et al. Catastrophic declines in wilderness areas undermine global environment targets. Curr. Biol. 26, 2929–2934 (2016).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Watson, J. E. et al. Protect the last of the wild. Nature 563, 27–30 (2018).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Hayward, M. W. et al. Reintroducing rewilding to restoration: Rejecting the search for novelty. Biol. Conserv. 233, 255–259 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Perino, A. et al. Rewilding complex ecosystems. Science 364, eaav5570 (2019).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Soulé, M. & Noss, R. Rewilding and biodiversity: Complementary goals for continental conservation. Wild Earth 8, 18–28 (1998).
Google Scholar 
Torres, A. et al. Measuring rewilding progress. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 373, 20170433 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Díaz, S. et al. Assessing nature’s contributions to people. Science 359, 270–272 (2018).ADS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Fish, R., Church, A. & Winter, M. Conceptualising cultural ecosystem services: A novel framework for research and critical engagement. Ecosyst. Serv. 21B, 208–217 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nilsson, K. et al. Forests, Trees and Human Health (Springer, 2011).Book 

Google Scholar 
Cheesbrough, A. E., Garvin, T. & Nykiforuk, C. I. J. Everyday wild: Urban natural areas, health, and well-being. Health Place 56, 43–52 (2019).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Child, M. F. Wildness, infinity and freedom. Ecol. Econ. 186, 107055 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lev, E., Kahn, P. H. Jr., Chen, H. & Esperum, G. Relatively wild urban parks can promote human resilience and flourishing: A case study of Discovery Park, Seattle, Wasshington. Front. Sustain. Cities 2, 2 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Venter, O. et al. Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation. Nat. Commun. 7, 12558 (2016).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Watson, J. E. et al. The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 599–610 (2018).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Giergiczny, M., Czajkowski, M., Żylicz, T. & Angelstam, P. Choice experiment assessment of public preferences for forest structural attributes. Ecol. Econ. 119, 8–23 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sabatini, F. M. et al. Where are Europe’s last primary forests?. Divers. Distrib. 24, 1426–1439 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kirby, K. & Watkins, C. Europe’s changing woods and forests: from wildwood to managed landscapes. CABI (2015).Schirpke, U., Meisch, C. & Tappeiner, U. Symbolic species as a cultural ecosystem service in the European Alps: Insights and open issues. Landsc. Ecol. 33, 711–730 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bruskotter, J. T. & Wilson, R. S. Determining where the wild things will be: Using psychological theory to find tolerance for large carnivores. Conserv. Lett. 7, 158–165 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Chapron, G. et al. Recovery of large carnivores in Europe’s modern human-dominated landscapes. Science 346, 1517–1519 (2014).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Cimatti, M. et al. Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes. Divers. Distrib. 27, 602–617 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Røskaft, E., Händel, B., Bjerke, T. & Kaltenborn, B. P. Human attitudes towards large carnivores in Norway. Wildl. Biol. 13, 172–186 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
Arbieu, U. et al. Attitudes towards returning wolves (Canis lupus) in Germany: Exposure, information sources and trust matter. Biol. Conserv. 234, 202–210 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gundersen, V. S. & Frivold, L. H. Public preferences for forest structures: A review of quantitative surveys from Finland, Norway and Sweden. Urban For. Urban Green. 7, 241–258 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Filyushkina, A., Agimass, F., Lundhede, T., Strange, N. & Jacobsen, J. B. Preferences for variation in forest characteristics: Does diversity between stands matter?. Ecol. Econ. 140, 22–29 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lozano, J. et al. Human-carnivore relations: A systematic review. Biol. Conserv. 237, 480–492 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rode, J., Flinzberger, L., Karutz, R., Berghöfer, A. & Schröter-Schlaack, C. Why so negative? Exploring the socio-economic impacts of large carnivores from a European perspective. Biol. Conserv. 255, 108918 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gren, M., Häggmark-Svensson, T., Elofsson, K. & Engelmann, M. Economics of wildlife management—An overview. Eur. J. Wildl. Res. 64, 1–6 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wilson, E. O. Biophilia and the conservation ethic in The Biophilia Hypothesis (eds. Kellert, S.R. & Wilson, E.O.) 31–41 (Island Press, 1993).Thompson, S. C. G. & Barton, M. A. Ecocentric and anthropocentric attitudes toward the environment. J. Environ. Psychol. 14, 149–157 (1994).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kaltenborn, B. P. & Bjerke, T. Associations between environmental value orientations and landscape preferences. Landsc. Urban Plan. 59, 1–11 (2002).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bjerke, T. & Kaltenborn, B. P. The relationship of ecocentric and anthropocentric motives to attitudes toward large carnivores. J. Environ. Psychol. 19, 415–421 (1999).Article 

Google Scholar 
Johansson, M., Ferreira, I. A., Støen, O. G., Frank, J. & Flykt, A. Targeting human fear of large carnivores—Many ideas but few known effects. Biol. Conserv. 201, 261–269 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bauer, N., Wallner, A. & Hunziker, M. The change of European landscapes: Human–nature relationships, public attitudes towards rewilding, and the implications for landscape management in Switzerland. J. Environ. Manag. 90, 2910–2920 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Arts, K., Fischer, A. & Van der Wal, R. The promise of wilderness between paradise and hell: A cultural-historical exploration of a Dutch National Park. Landsc. Res. 37, 239–256 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
De Groot, W. T. & van den Born, R. J. G. Visions of nature and landscape preferences:an exploration in the Netherlands. Landsc. Urban Plan. 63, 127–138 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bombieri, G. et al. Brown bear attacks on humans: A worldwide perspective. Sci. Rep. 9, 1–10 (2019).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Johansson, M., Sjöström, M., Karlsson, J. & Brännlund, R. Is human fear affecting public willingness to pay for the management and conservation of large carnivores?. Soc. Nat. Resour. 25, 610–620 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dressel, S., Sandström, C. & Ericsson, G. A meta-analysis of studies on attitudes toward bears and wolves across Europe 1976–2012. Conserv. Biol. 29, 565–574 (2015).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Trajçe, A. et al. All carnivores are not equal in the rural people’s view. Should we develop conservation plans for functional guilds or individual species in the face of conflicts?. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 19, e00677 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Eriksson, M., Sandström, C. & Ericsson, G. Direct experience and attitude change towards bears and wolves. Wildl. Biol. 21, 131–137 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Methorst, J., Arbieu, U., Bonn, A., Böhning-Gaese, K. & Müller, T. Non-material contributions of wildlife to human well-being: A systematic review. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 093005 (2020).ADS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Russell, R. et al. Humans and nature: How knowing and experiencing nature affect well-being. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 38, 473–502 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Maller, C., Mumaw, L. & Cooke, B. Health and social benefits of living with ‘wild’ nature in Rewilding (eds. Pettorelli, N., Durant, S. M. & du Toit, J. T.) 165–181 (Cambridge University Press, 2019).Nevin, O. T., Swain, P. & Convery, I. Bears, place-making, and authenticity in British Columbia. Nat. Areas J. 34, 216–221 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Schnitzler, A. Towards a new European wilderness: Embracing unmanaged forest growth and the decolonisation of nature. Landsc. Urban Plan. 126, 74–80 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hensher, D., Rose, J. & Greene, D. Applied Choice Analysis (Cambridge University Press, 2005).MATH 
Book 

Google Scholar 
Johnston, R. J. et al. Contemporary guidance for stated preference studies. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 4, 319–405 (2017).
Google Scholar 
Riera, P. et al. Non-market valuation of forest goods and services: Good practice guidelines. J. For. Econ. 18, 259–270 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Larsen, J. B. & Nielsen, A. B. Nature-based forest management: Where are we going? Elaborating forest development types in and with practice. For. Ecol. Manag. 238, 107–117 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ferrini, S. & Scarpa, R. Designs with a priori information for nonmarket valuation with choice experiments: A Monte Carlo study. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 53, 342–363 (2007).MATH 
Article 

Google Scholar 
McFadden, D. The measurement of urban travel demand. J. Public Econ. 3, 303–328 (1974).Article 

Google Scholar 
Train, K. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (Cambridge University Press, 2009).MATH 

Google Scholar  More

Richardson, D. M. et al. Naturalization and invasion of alien plants: concepts and definitions. Divers. Distrib. 6, 93–107 (2000).Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M. et al. Global exchange and accumulation of non-native plants. Nature 525, 100–103 (2015).PubMed 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Capinha, C., Essl, F., Seebens, H., Moser, D. & Pereira, H. M. The dispersal of alien species redefines biogeography in the Anthropocene. Science 348, 1248–1251 (2015).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Vilà, M. & Hulme, P. E. in Impact of Biological Invasions on Ecosystem Services Vol. 12 Invading Nature – Springer Series in Invasion Ecology (eds Vilà, M. & Hulme, P. E.) 1–14 (Springer, 2017).Pyšek, P. et al. A global assessment of invasive plant impacts on resident species, communities and ecosystems: the interaction of impact measures, invading species’ traits and environment. Glob. Chang. Biol. 18, 1725–1737 (2012).PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Pyšek, P. et al. Scientists’ warning on invasive alien species. Biol. Rev. 95, 1511–1534 (2020).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Bacher, S. et al. Socio-economic impact classification of alien taxa (SEICAT). Methods Ecol. Evol. 9, 159–168 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Seebens, H. et al. No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide. Nat. Commun. 8, 14435 (2017).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Seebens, H. et al. Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Glob. Chang. Biol. 27, 970–982 (2021).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Kriticos, D. J., Sutherst, R. W., Brown, J. R., Adkins, S. W. & Maywald, G. F. Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia. J. Appl. Ecol. 40, 111–124 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Thuiller, W., Richardson, D. M. & Midgley, G. F. in Biological Invasions (ed. Nentwig, W.) 197–211 (Springer, 2007).Hobbs, R. J. in Invasive Species in a Changing World (eds Mooney, H. A. & Hobbs, R. J.) 55–64 (Island Press, 2000).Seebens, H. et al. Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 21, 4128–4140 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Razanajatovo, M. et al. Plants capable of selfing are more likely to become naturalized. Nat. Commun. 7, 13313 (2016).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Bucharova, A. & van Kleunen, M. Introduction history and species characteristics partly explain naturalization success of North American woody species in Europe. J. Ecol. 97, 230–238 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ordonez, A., Wright, I. J. & Olff, H. Functional differences between native and alien species: a global-scale comparison. Funct. Ecol. 24, 1353–1361 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M., Weber, E. & Fischer, M. A meta-analysis of trait differences between invasive and non-invasive plant species. Ecol. Lett. 13, 235–245 (2010).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M., Dawson, W. & Maurel, N. Characteristics of successful alien plants. Mol. Ecol. 24, 1954–1968 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Essl, F. et al. Drivers of the relative richness of naturalized and invasive plant species on Earth. AoB Plants 11, plz051 (2019).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Winkler, D. E., Gremer, J. R., Chapin, K. J., Kao, M. & Huxman, T. E. Rapid alignment of functional trait variation with locality across the invaded range of Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii). Am. J. Bot. 105, 1188–1197 (2018).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Divíšek, J. et al. Similarity of introduced plant species to native ones facilitates naturalization, but differences enhance invasion success. Nat. Commun. 9, 4631 (2018).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Banerjee, A. K., Prajapati, J., Bhowmick, A. R., Huang, Y. & Mukherjee, A. Different factors influence naturalization and invasion processes – a case study of Indian alien flora provides management insights. J. Environ. Manag. 294, 113054 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Ni, M. et al. Invasion success and impacts depend on different characteristics in non-native plants. Divers. Distrib. 27, 1194–1207 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Fristoe, T. S. et al. Dimensions of invasiveness: links between local abundance, geographic range size, and habitat breadth in Europe’s alien and native floras. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 118, e2021173118 (2021).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Omer, A. et al. Characteristics of the naturalized flora of Southern Africa largely reflect the non-random introduction of alien species for cultivation. Ecography 44, 1812–1825 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pyšek, P. et al. Naturalization of central European plants in North America: species traits, habitats, propagule pressure, residence time. Ecology 96, 762–774 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Omer, A., Kordofani, M., Gibreel, H. H., Pyšek, P. & van Kleunen, M. The alien flora of Sudan and South Sudan: taxonomic and biogeographical composition. Biol. Invasions 23, 2033–2045 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Duncan, R. P. & Williams, P. A. Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis challenged. Nature 417, 608–609 (2002).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Daehler, C. C. Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis revisited. Am. Nat. 158, 324–330 (2001).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Pyšek, P. Is there a taxonomic pattern to plant invasions? Oikos 82, 282–294 (1998).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tan, J., Pu, Z., Ryberg, W. A. & Jiang, L. Resident–invader phylogenetic relatedness, not resident phylogenetic diversity, controls community invasibility. Am. Nat. 186, 59–71 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Thuiller, W. et al. Resolving Darwin’s naturalization conundrum: a quest for evidence. Divers. Distrib. 16, 461–475 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Loiola, P. P. et al. Invaders among locals: alien species decrease phylogenetic and functional diversity while increasing dissimilarity among native community members. J. Ecol. 106, 2230–2241 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lososová, Z. et al. Alien plants invade more phylogenetically clustered community types and cause even stronger clustering. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 24, 786–794 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Marx, H. E., Giblin, D. E., Dunwiddie, P. W. & Tank, D. C. Deconstructing Darwin’s naturalization conundrum in the San Juan Islands using community phylogenetics and functional traits. Divers. Distrib. 22, 318–331 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Darwin, C. On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life (John Murray, 1859).Procheş, Ş., Wilson, J. R. U., Richardson, D. M. & Rejmánek, M. Searching for phylogenetic pattern in biological invasions. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 5–10 (2008).
Google Scholar 
Diez, J. M., Sullivan, J. J., Hulme, P. E., Edwards, G. & Duncan, R. P. Darwin’s naturalization conundrum: dissecting taxonomic patterns of species invasions. Ecol. Lett. 11, 674–681 (2008).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Cadotte, M. W., Campbell, S. E., Li, S. P., Sodhi, D. S. & Mandrak, N. E. Preadaptation and naturalization of nonnative species: Darwin’s two fundamental insights into species invasion. Annu Rev. Plant Biol. 69, 661–684 (2018).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M., Bossdorf, O. & Dawson, W. The ecology and evolution of alien plants. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 49, 25–47 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Park, D. S., Feng, X., Maitner, B. S., Ernst, K. C. & Enquist, B. J. Darwin’s naturalization conundrum can be explained by spatial scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 10904–10910 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Diez, J. M. et al. Learning from failures: testing broad taxonomic hypotheses about plant naturalization. Ecol. Lett. 12, 1174–1183 (2009).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Malecore, E. M., Dawson, W., Kempel, A., Müller, G. & van Kleunen, M. Nonlinear effects of phylogenetic distance on early-stage establishment of experimentally introduced plants in grassland communities. J. Ecol. 107, 781–793 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Schaefer, H., Hardy, O. J., Silva, L., Barraclough, T. G. & Savolainen, V. Testing Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis in the Azores. Ecol. Lett. 14, 389–396 (2011).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Strauss, S. Y., Webb, C. O. & Salamin, N. Exotic taxa less related to native species are more invasive. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5841–5845 (2006).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Li, S.-p. et al. The effects of phylogenetic relatedness on invasion success and impact: deconstructing Darwin’s naturalisation conundrum. Ecol. Lett. 18, 1285–1292 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Pellock, S., Thompson, A., He, K., Mecklin, C. & Yang, J. Validity of Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis relates to the stages of invasion. Community Ecol. 14, 172–179 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Blackburn, T. M. et al. A proposed unified framework for biological invasions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 333–339 (2011).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M. et al. Economic use of plants is key to their naturalization success. Nat. Commun. 11, 3201 (2020).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Broennimann, O. et al. Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals. Nat. Commun. 12, 2353 (2021).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Carboni, M. et al. What it takes to invade grassland ecosystems: traits, introduction history and filtering processes. Ecol. Lett. 19, 219–229 (2016).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Milbau, A. & Stout, J. C. Factors associated with alien plants transitioning from casual, to naturalized, to invasive. Conserv. Biol. 22, 308–317 (2008).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Dawson, W., Burslem, D. F. R. P. & Hulme, P. E. Factors explaining alien plant invasion success in a tropical ecosystem differ at each stage of invasion. J. Ecol. 97, 657–665 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rejmánek, M. in Invasive Species and Biodiversity Management (eds Schei, P. J. & Vilken, A.) 79–102 (Kluwer Academic, 1998).Rejmánek, M. A theory of seed plant invasiveness: the first sketch. Biol. Conserv. 78, 171–181 (1996).Article 

Google Scholar 
Maurel, N., Hanspach, J., Kuhn, I., Pysek, P. & van Kleunen, M. Introduction bias affects relationships between the characteristics of ornamental alien plants and their naturalization success. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 25, 1500–1509 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Glen, H. F. Cultivated Plants of Southern Africa: Botanical Names, Common Names, Origins, Literature (National Botanical Institute, 2002).Reichard, S. H. & White, P. Horticulture as a pathway of invasive plant introductions in the United States. Bioscience 51, 103–113 (2001).Article 

Google Scholar 
Faulkner, K. T., Robertson, M. P., Rouget, M. & Wilson, J. R. U. Understanding and managing the introduction pathways of alien taxa: South Africa as a case study. Biol. Invasions 18, 73–87 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dodd, A. J., Burgman, M. A., McCarthy, M. A. & Ainsworth, N. The changing patterns of plant naturalization in Australia. Divers. Distrib. 21, 1038–1050 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lambdon, P.-W. et al. Alien flora of Europe: species diversity, temporal trends, geographical patterns and research needs. Preslia 80, 101–149 (2008).
Google Scholar 
Bennett, B. M. Naturalising Australian trees in South Africa: climate, exotics and experimentation. J. South. Afr. Stud. 37, 265–280 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Richardson, D. M. et al. in Biological Invasions in South Africa (eds van Wilgen, B. W. et al.) 67–96 (Springer, 2020).Li, S.-p. et al. Contrasting effects of phylogenetic relatedness on plant invader success in experimental grassland communities. J. Appl. Ecol. 52, 89–99 (2015).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Duarte, M., Verdú, M., Cavieres, L. A. & Bustamante, R. O. Plant–plant facilitation increases with reduced phylogenetic relatedness along an elevation gradient. Oikos 130, 248–259 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Verdú, M., Rey, P. J., Alcántara, J. M., Siles, G. & Valiente-Banuet, A. Phylogenetic signatures of facilitation and competition in successional communities. J. Ecol. 97, 1171–1180 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Valiente-Banuet, A. & Verdu, M. Plant facilitation and phylogenetics. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 44, 347–366 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Anacker, B. L. & Strauss, S. Y. Ecological similarity is related to phylogenetic distance between species in a cross-niche field transplant experiment. Ecology 97, 1807–1818 (2016).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Dostál, P. Plant competitive interactions and invasiveness: searching for the effects of phylogenetic relatedness and origin on competition intensity. Am. Nat. 177, 655–667 (2011).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Levin, S. C., Crandall, R. M., Pokoski, T., Stein, C. & Knight, T. M. Phylogenetic and functional distinctiveness explain alien plant population responses to competition. Proc. R. Soc. B 287, 20201070 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Williams, E. W., Zeldin, J., Semski, W. R., Hipp, A. L. & Larkin, D. J. Phylogenetic distance and resource availability mediate direction and strength of plant interactions in a competition experiment. Oecologia 197, 459–469 (2021).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Bezeng, S. B., Davies, J. T., Yessoufou, K., Maurin, O. & Van der Bank, M. Revisiting Darwin’s naturalization conundrum: explaining invasion success of non-native trees and shrubs in Southern Africa. J. Ecol. 103, 871–879 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Trotta, L. B., Siders, Z. A., Sessa, E. B. & Baiser, B. The role of phylogenetic scale in Darwin’s naturalization conundrum in the critically imperilled pine rockland ecosystem. Divers. Distrib. 27, 618–631 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sol, D. et al. A test of Darwin’s naturalization conundrum in birds reveals enhanced invasion success in the presence of close relatives. Ecol. Lett. 25, 661–672 (2022).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Smith, S. A. & Brown, J. W. Constructing a broadly inclusive seed plant phylogeny. Am. J. Bot. 105, 302–314 (2018).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Henderson, L. Comparisons of invasive plants in Southern Africa originating from southern temperate, northern temperate and tropical regions. Bothalia 36, 201–222 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Cayuela, L., Stein, A. & Oksanen, J. Taxonstand: Taxonomic Standardization of Plant Species Names. R package version 2.2. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=Taxonstand (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2019).Weigelt, P., König, C. & Kreft, H. GIFT – A Global Inventory of Floras and Traits for macroecology and biogeography. J. Biogeogr. 47, 16–43 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
van Kleunen, M. et al. The Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database. Ecology 100, e02542 (2019).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Zengeya, T. A. & Wilson, J. R. (eds) The Status of Biological Invasions and Their Management in South Africa in 2019 (South African National Biodiversity Institute and DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology, 2021).Revell, L. J. phytools: an R package for phylogenetic comparative biology (and other things). Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 217–223 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing v.3.6.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2019).Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., Walker, N. J., Saveliev, A. A. & Smith, G. M. Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R Vol. 574 (Springer, 2009).Schielzeth, H. Simple means to improve the interpretability of regression coefficients. Methods Ecol. Evol. 1, 103–113 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nagelkerke, N. J. D. A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika 78, 691–692 (1991).Article 

Google Scholar 
rcompanion: Functions to support extension education program evaluation v. 2.4.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2021).Tung Ho, L. S. & Ané, C. A linear-time algorithm for Gaussian and non-Gaussian trait evolution models. Syst. Biol. 63, 397–408 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar  More

Peñuelas, J. & Filella, I. Phenology. Responses to a warming world. Science 294, 793–795 (2001).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Peñuelas, J., Rutishauser, T. & Filella, I. Ecology. Phenology feedbacks on climate change. Science 324, 887–888 (2009).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Ramos-Jiliberto, R., Moisset de Espanés, P., Franco-Cisterna, M., Petanidou, T. & Vázquez, D. P. Phenology determines the robustness of plant-pollinator networks. Sci. Rep. 8, 14873 (2018).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Chuine, I. Why does phenology drive species distribution? Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 365, 3149–3160 (2010).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Chmielewski, F.-M. in Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science 2nd edn (ed. Schwartz M. D.) 539–561 (Springer, 2013).Morellato, L. P. C. et al. Linking plant phenology to conservation biology. Biol. Conserv. 195, 60–72 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Katelaris, C. H. & Beggs, P. J. Climate change: allergens and allergic diseases. Intern. Med. J. 48, 129–134 (2018).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Schwartz, M. D. (ed.) Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science 2nd edn (Springer, 2013).Cleland, E. E., Chuine, I., Menzel, A., Mooney, H. A. & Schwartz, M. D. Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 357–365 (2007).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Recent spring phenology shifts in western Central Europe based on multiscale observations. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1255–1263 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Jeong, S.-J., Ho, C.-H., Gim, H.-J. & Brown, M. E. Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1982-2008. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 2385–2399 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Liu, Q. et al. Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3702–3711 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vitasse, Y. et al. Leaf phenology sensitivity to temperature in European trees: do within-species populations exhibit similar responses. Agric. For. Meteorol. 149, 735–744 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wang, S. et al. Temporal trends and spatial variability of vegetation phenology over the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2012. PLoS ONE 11, e0157134 (2016).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding. Nature 526, 104–107 (2015).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Huang, M. et al. Velocity of change in vegetation productivity over northern high latitudes. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1649–1654 (2017).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Peaucelle, M. et al. Spatial variance of spring phenology in temperate deciduous forests is constrained by background climatic conditions. Nat. Commun. 10, 5388 (2019).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Zohner, C. M., Mo, L., Pugh, T. A. M., Bastin, J.-F. & Crowther, T. W. Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees. Glob. Change Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15098 (2020).Montgomery, R. A., Rice, K. E., Stefanski, A., Rich, R. L. & Reich, P. B. Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 10397–10405 (2020).Zohner, C. M., Benito, B. M., Svenning, J.-C. & Renner, S. S. Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1120–1123 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Peñuelas, J. et al. Complex spatiotemporal phenological shifts as a response to rainfall changes. New Phytol. 161, 837–846 (2004).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Papagiannopoulou, C. et al. Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 74016 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Delpierre, N. et al. Modelling interannual and spatial variability of leaf senescence for three deciduous tree species in France. Agric. For. Meteorol. 149, 938–948 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates. Tree Physiol. 39, 1277–1284 (2019).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Seyednasrollah, B., Swenson, J. J., Domec, J.-C. & Clark, J. S. Leaf phenology paradox: why warming matters most where it is already warm. Remote Sens. Environ. 209, 446–455 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Chuine, I., Morin, X. & Bugmann, H. Warming, photoperiods, and tree phenology. Science 329, 277–278 (2010).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Vitasse, Y. & Basler, D. What role for photoperiod in the bud burst phenology of European beech. Eur. J. For. Res 132, 1–8 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Way, D. A. & Montgomery, R. A. Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world. Plant Cell Environ. 38, 1725–1736 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Caffarra, A., Donnelly, A. & Chuine, I. Modelling the timing of Betula pubescens budburst. II. Integrating complex effects of photoperiod into process-based models. Clim. Res. 46, 159–170 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Körner, C. & Basler, D. Plant science. Phenology under global warming. Science 327, 1461–1462 (2010).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Daylength helps temperate deciduous trees to leaf-out at the optimal time. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2410–2418 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Singh, R. K., Svystun, T., AlDahmash, B., Jönsson, A. M. & Bhalerao, R. P. Photoperiod- and temperature-mediated control of phenology in trees – a molecular perspective. New Phytol. 213, 511–524 (2017).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Flynn, D. F. B. & Wolkovich, E. M. Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community. New Phytol. 219, 1353–1362 (2018).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Brelsford, C. C., Nybakken, L., Kotilainen, T. K. & Robson, T. M. The influence of spectral composition on spring and autumn phenology in trees. Tree Physiol. 39, 925–950 (2019).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Strømme, C. B. et al. UV-B and temperature enhancement affect spring and autumn phenology in Populus tremula. Plant Cell Environ. 38, 867–877 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Increased heat requirement for leaf flushing in temperate woody species over 1980-2012: effects of chilling, precipitation and insolation. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 2687–2697 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Huang, Y., Jiang, N., Shen, M. & Guo, L. Effect of preseason diurnal temperature range on the start of vegetation growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. Ecol. Indic. 112, 106161 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Meng, F. et al. Opposite effects of winter day and night temperature changes on early phenophases. Ecology 100, e02775 (2019).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, S., Isabel, N., Huang, J.-G., Ren, H. & Rossi, S. Responses of bud-break phenology to daily-asymmetric warming: daytime warming intensifies the advancement of bud break. Int. J. Biometeorol. 63, 1631–1640 (2019).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Meng, L. et al. Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming. Agric. For. Meteorol. 281, 107832 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bigler, C. & Vitasse, Y. Daily maximum temperatures induce lagged effects on leaf unfolding in temperate woody species across large elevational gradients. Front. Plant Sci. 10, 398 (2019).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Y. H. et al. Three times greater weight of daytime than of night-time temperature on leaf unfolding phenology in temperate trees. New Phytol. 212, 590–597 (2016).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Piao, S. et al. Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature. Nat. Commun. 6, 6911 (2015).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Vitasse, Y. et al. Impact of microclimatic conditions and resource availability on spring and autumn phenology of temperate tree seedlings. New Phytol. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17606 (2021).Azeez, A. et al. EARLY BUD-BREAK 1 and EARLY BUD-BREAK 3 control resumption of poplar growth after winter dormancy. Nat. Commun. 12, 1123 (2021).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Hamer, P. The heat balance of apple buds and blossoms. Part I. Heat transfer in the outdoor environment. Agric. For. Meteorol. 35, 339–352 (1985).Article 

Google Scholar 
Landsberg, J. J., Butler, D. R. & Thorpe, M. R. Apple bud and blossom temperatures. J. Horticultural Sci. 49, 227–239 (1974).Article 

Google Scholar 
Grace, J. The temperature of buds may be higher than you thought. N. Phytol. 170, 1–3 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Muir, C. D. tealeaves: an R package for modelling leaf temperature using energy budgets. AoB Plants 11, plz054 (2019).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Knohl, A., Schulze, E.-D., Kolle, O. & Buchmann, N. Large carbon uptake by an unmanaged 250-year-old deciduous forest in Central Germany. Agric. For. Meteorol. 118, 151–167 (2003).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zellweger, F. et al. Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming. Science 368, 772–775 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Bailey, B. N., Stoll, R., Pardyjak, E. R. & Miller, N. E. A new three-dimensional energy balance model for complex plant canopy geometries: Model development and improved validation strategies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 218-219, 146–160 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Michaletz, S. T. & Johnson, E. A. A heat transfer model of crown scorch in forest fires. Can. J. For. Res. 36, 2839–2851 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A. et al. Reassessment and update of long‐term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe (1939–2012). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 9555–9569 (2015).Pfeifroth, U., Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., Manara, V., Trentmann, J. & Hollmann, R. Trends and variability of surface solar radiation in Europe based on surface‐ and satellite-based data records. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123, 1735–1754 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Richardson, A. D. et al. Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 566–584 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Liu, Q. et al. Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost. Nat. Commun. 9, 426 (2018).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Ma, Q., Huang, J.-G., Hänninen, H. & Berninger, F. Divergent trends in the risk of spring frost damage to trees in Europe with recent warming. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 351–360 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zohner, C. M. et al. Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920816117 (2020).Xiao, L. et al. Estimating spring frost and its impact on yield across winter wheat in China. Agric. For. Meteorol. 260–261, 154–164 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Unterberger, C. et al. Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate. PLoS ONE 13, e0200201 (2018).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Leolini, L. et al. Late spring frost impacts on future grapevine distribution in Europe. Field Crops Res. 222, 197–208 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Greco, S. et al. Late spring frost in mediterranean beech forests: extended crown dieback and short-term effects on moth communities. Forests 9, 388 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Augspurger, C. K. Spring 2007 warmth and frost: phenology, damage and refoliation in a temperate deciduous forest. Funct. Ecol. 23, 1031–1039 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dong, N., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Song, Q. H. & Zhang, Y. P. Biophysical homoeostasis of leaf temperature: a neglected process for vegetation and land-surface modelling. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 998–1007 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Jones, H. G. Plants and Microclimate. A Quantitative Approach to Environmental Plant Physiology (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).University Of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) & Harris, I. C. CRU JRA v1.1: a forcings dataset of gridded land surface blend of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Japanese reanalysis (JRA) data; Jan.1901–Dec.2017, 2019; https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/13f3635174794bb98cf8ac4b0ee8f4edDupleix, A., Sousa Meneses, D., de, Hughes, M. & Marchal, R. Mid-infrared absorption properties of green wood. Wood Sci. Technol. 47, 1231–1241 (2013).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Howard, R. & Stull, R. IR radiation from trees to a ski run: a case study. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 52, 1525–1539 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Monteith, J. L. & Unsworth, M. H. Principles of Environmental Physics. Plants, Animals, and the Atmosphere 4th edn (Elsevier/Academic Press, 2013).Bergman, T. L., Incropera, F. P. & Lavine, A. S. Fundamentals of Heat and Mass Transfer (J. Wiley & Sons, 2011).Jacobs, A., Heusinkveld, B. G. & Kessel, G. Simulating of leaf wetness duration within a potato canopy. NJAS Wagening. J. Life Sci. 53, 151–166 (2005).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gerlein-Safdi, C. et al. Dew deposition suppresses transpiration and carbon uptake in leaves. Agric. For. Meteorol. 259, 305–316 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Muñoz Sabater, J. Copernicus Climate Change Service: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1981 to present, 2019; https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-landKusch, E. & Davy, R. KrigR – A tool for downloading and statistically downscaling climate reanalysis data. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 024005 (2022).Article 

Google Scholar 
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2018); https://www.R-project.org/ More

Delhey, K. A review of Gloger’s rule, an ecogeographical rule of colour: definitions, interpretations and evidence. Biol. Rev. 94, 1294–1316 (2019).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Tian, L. & Benton, M. J. Predicting biotic responses to future climate warming with classic ecogeographic rules. Curr. Biol. 30, R744–R749 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Ryding, S., Klaassen, M., Tattersall, G. J., Gardner, J. L. & Symonds, M. R. E. Shape-shifting: changing animal morphologies as a response to climatic warming. Trends Ecol. Evol. 36, 1036–1048 (2021).Salewski, V. & Watt, C. Bergmann’s rule: a biophysiological rule examined in birds. Oikos 126, 161–172 (2017).
Google Scholar 
Allen, J. A. The influence of physical conditions in the genesis of species. Radic. Rev. 1, 108–140 (1877).
Google Scholar 
Ashton, K. G., Tracy, M. C. & De Queiroz, A. Is Bergmann’s rule valid for mammals? Am. Nat. 156, 390–415 (2000).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Ashton, K. G. Patterns of within-species body size variation of birds: strong evidence for Bergmann’s rule. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 11, 505–523 (2002).
Google Scholar 
Nudds, R. L. & Oswald, S. A. An interspecific test of Allen’s rule: evolutionary implications for endothermic species. Evolution (N. Y) 61, 2839–2848 (2007).CAS 

Google Scholar 
Symonds, M. R. E. & Tattersall, G. J. Geographical variation in bill size across bird species provides evidence for Allen’s rule. Am. Nat. 176, 188–197 (2010).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Cardilini, A. P. A., Buchanan, K. L., Sherman, C. D. H., Cassey, P. & Symonds, M. R. E. Tests of ecogeographical relationships in a non-native species: what rules avian morphology? Oecologia 181, 783–793 (2016).ADS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Alhajeri, B. H., Fourcade, Y., Upham, N. S. & Alhaddad, H. A global test of Allen’s rule in rodents. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 29, 2248–2260 (2020).
Google Scholar 
McNab, B. K. On the ecological significance of Bergmann’s rule. Ecology 52, 845–854 (1971).
Google Scholar 
Meiri, S., Dayan, T. & Simberloff, D. Carnivores, biases and Bergmann’s rule. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 81, 579–588 (2004).
Google Scholar 
Gohli, J. & Voje, K. L. An interspecific assessment of Bergmann’s rule in 22 mammalian families. BMC Evol. Biol. 16, 1–12 (2016).
Google Scholar 
Freeman, B. G. Little evidence for Bergmann’s rule body size clines in passerines along tropical elevational gradients. J. Biogeogr. 44, 502–510 (2017).
Google Scholar 
Riemer, K., Guralnick, R. P. & White, E. No general relationship between mass and temperature in endothermic species. Elife 7, e27166 (2018).PubMed 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Blackburn, T. M., Gaston, K. J. & Loder, N. Geographic gradients in body size: a clarification of Bergmann’s rule. Divers. Distrib. 5, 165–174 (1999).
Google Scholar 
Watt, C., Mitchell, S. & Salewski, V. Bergmann’s rule; a concept cluster? Oikos 119, 89–100 (2010).
Google Scholar 
James, F. C. Geographic size variation in birds and its relationship to climate. Ecology 51, 365–390 (1970).
Google Scholar 
Cartar, R. V. & Morrison, R. I. G. Metabolic correlates of leg length in breeding arctic shorebirds: the cost of getting high. J. Biogeogr. 32, 377–382 (2005).
Google Scholar 
Friedman, N. R., Harmáčková, L., Economo, E. P. & Remeš, V. Smaller beaks for colder winters: thermoregulation drives beak size evolution in Australasian songbirds. Evolution (N. Y). 71, 2120–2129 (2017).Fan, L., Cai, T., Xiong, Y., Song, G. & Lei, F. Bergmann’s rule and Allen’s rule in two passerine birds in China. Avian. Res. 10, 1–11 (2019).
Google Scholar 
Romano, A., Séchaud, R. & Roulin, A. Geographical variation in bill size provides evidence for Allen’s rule in a cosmopolitan raptor. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 29, 65–75 (2020).
Google Scholar 
Romano, A., Séchaud, R. & Roulin, A. Generalized evidence for Bergmann’s rule: body size variation in a cosmopolitan owl genus. J. Biogeogr. 48, 51–63 (2021).
Google Scholar 
Gardner, J. L. et al. Spatial variation in avian bill size is associated with humidity in summer among Australian passerines. Clim. Chang. Responses 3, 1–11 (2016).
Google Scholar 
Greenberg, R. & Danner, R. M. The influence of the california marine layer on bill size in a generalist songbird. Evolution (N. Y) 66, 3825–3835 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Greenberg, R., Danner, R., Olsen, B. & Luther, D. High summer temperature explains bill size variation in salt marsh sparrows. Ecography (Cop.) 35, 146–152 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Klir, J. J. & Heath, J. E. An infrared thermographic study of surface temperature in relation to external thermal stress in three species of foxes: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), Arctic fox, and kit fox (Vulpes macrotis). Physiol. Zool. 65, 1011–1021 (1992).
Google Scholar 
Ballentine, B. & Greenberg, R. Common garden experiment reveals genetic control of phenotypic divergence between swamp sparrow subspecies that lack divergence in neutral genotypes. PLoS One 5, 1–6 (2010).
Google Scholar 
Nord, A. & Giroud, S. Lifelong effects of thermal challenges during development in birds and mammals. Front. Physiol. 11, 1–9 (2020).
Google Scholar 
Riek, A. & Geiser, F. Developmental phenotypic plasticity in a marsupial. J. Exp. Biol. 215, 1552–1558 (2012).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Cunningham, S. J., Martin, R. O., Hojem, C. L. & Hockey, P. A. R. Temperatures in excess of critical thresholds threaten nestling growth and survival in a rapidly-warming arid savanna: a study of common fiscals. PLoS One 8, e74613 (2013).Mariette, M. M. & Buchanan, K. L. Prenatal acoustic communication programs offspring for high posthatching temperatures in a songbird. Science 353, 812–814 (2016).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Nord, A. & Nilsson, J. Å. Incubation temperature affects growth and energy metabolism in blue tit nestlings. Am. Nat. 178, 639–651 (2011).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Serrat, M. A. Allen’s rule revisited: temperature influences bone elongation during a critical period of postnatal development. Anat. Rec. 296, 1534–1545 (2013).
Google Scholar 
Larson, E. R. et al. Nest microclimate predicts bill growth in the Adelaide rosella (Aves: Psittaculidae). Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 124, 339–349 (2018).
Google Scholar 
Burness, G., Huard, J. R., Malcolm, E. & Tattersall, G. J. Post-hatch heat warms adult beaks: irreversible physiological plasticity in Japanese quail. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 280, 20131436 (2013).Husby, A., Hille, S. M. & Visser, M. E. Testing mechanisms of bergmann’s rule: phenotypic decline but no genetic change in body size in three passerine bird populations. Am. Nat. 178, 202–213 (2011).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Cresswell, W., Clark, J. A. & Macleod, R. How climate change might influence the starvation-predation risk trade-off response. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 276, 3553–3560 (2009).CAS 

Google Scholar 
McNamara, J. M., Higginson, A. D. & Verhulst, S. The influence of the starvation-predation trade-off on the relationship between ambient temperature and body size among endotherms. J. Biogeogr. 43, 809–819 (2016).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Dickman, C. R. Body size, prey size, and community structure in insectivorous mammals. Ecology 69, 569–580 (1988).
Google Scholar 
Carbone, C., Mace, G. M., Roberts, S. C. & Macdonald, D. W. Energetic constraints on the diet of terrestrial carnivores. Nature 402, 286–288 (1999).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Cohen, J. E., Pimm, S. L., Yodzis, P., & Saldaña, J. Body sizes of animal predators and animal prey in food webs. J. Anim. Ecol. 62, 67–78 (1993).
Google Scholar 
McKinnon, L. et al. Lower predation risk for migratory birds at high latitudes. Science 327, 326–327 (2010).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Díaz, M. et al. The geography of fear: a latitudinal gradient in anti-predator escape distances of birds across Europe. PLoS One 8, e64634 (2013).Gosler, A. G., Greenwood, J. J. D. & Perrins, C. Predation risk and the cost of being fat. Nature 377, 621–623 (1995).ADS 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Anderson, A. M. et al. Consistent declines in wing lengths of Calidridine sandpipers suggest a rapid morphometric response to environmental change. PLoS One 14, 1–21 (2019).CAS 

Google Scholar 
Milá, B., Wayne, R. K. & Smith, T. B. Ecomorphology of migratory and sedentary populations of the yellow-rumped warbler (Dendroica Coronata). Condor 110, 335–344 (2008).
Google Scholar 
O’Hara, P. D., Fernández, G., Haase, B., de la Cueva, H. & Lank, D. B. Differential migration in western sandpipers with respect to body size and wing length. Condor 108, 225–232 (2006).
Google Scholar 
Ketterson, E. D. & Nolan, V. Geographic variation and its climatic correlates in the sex ratio of eastern-wintering dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis hyemalis). Ecology 57, 679–693 (1976).
Google Scholar 
Nebel, S. Differential migration of shorebirds in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Emu 107, 14–18 (2007).
Google Scholar 
Elner, R. W. & Seaman, D. A. Calidrid conservation: unrequited needs. Wader Study Gr. Bull. 100, 30–34 (2003).
Google Scholar 
Greenberg, R. Dissimilar bill shapes in new world tropical versus temperate forest foliage-gleaning birds. Oecologia 49, 143–147 (1981).ADS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Nebel, S. Latitudinal clines in bill length and sex ratio in a migratory shorebird: a case of resource partitioning? Acta Oecologica 28, 33–38 (2005).ADS 

Google Scholar 
Mathot, K. J., Smith, B. D. & Elner, R. W. Latitudinal clines in food distribution correlate with differential migration in the Western Sandpiper. Ecology 88, 781–791 (2007).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Duijns, S. et al. Sex-specific winter distribution in a sexually dimorphic shorebird is explained by resource partitioning. Ecol. Evol. 4, 4009–4018 (2014).PubMed 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Wilson, J. R., Nebel, S. & Minton, C. D. T. Migration ecology and morphometrics of two Bar-tailed Godwit populations in Australia. Emu 107, 262–274 (2007).
Google Scholar 
Nebel, S., Rogers, K. G., Minton, C. D. T. & Rogers, D. I. Is geographical variation in the size of Australian shorebirds consistent with hypotheses on differential migration? Emu 113, 99–111 (2013).
Google Scholar 
Beltran, R. S., Burns, J. M. & Breed, G. A. Convergence of biannual moulting strategies across birds and mammals. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 285, 20180318 (2018).Tattersall, G. J., Arnaout, B. & Symonds, M. R. E. The evolution of the avian bill as a thermoregulatory organ. Biol. Rev. 92, 1630–1656 (2017).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Battley, P. F., Rogers, D. I., Piersma, T. & Koolhaas, A. Behavioural evidence for heat-load problems in Great Knots in tropical Australia fuelling for long-distance flight. Emu 103, 97–103 (2003).
Google Scholar 
Rogers, D. I., Piersma, T. & Hassell, C. J. Roost availability may constrain shorebird distribution: Exploring the energetic costs of roosting and disturbance around a tropical bay. Biol. Conserv. 133, 225–235 (2006).
Google Scholar 
Danner, R. M. & Greenberg, R. A critical season approach to Allen’s rule: Bill size declines with winter temperature in a cold temperate environment. J. Biogeogr. 42, 114–120 (2015).
Google Scholar 
Buchholz, R. Thermoregulatory role of the unfeathered head and neck in male wild turkeys. Auk 113, 310–318 (1996).
Google Scholar 
Marchant, S. & Higgins, P. J. (eds.) Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic Birds. Volume 2: Raptors to Lapwings (Oxford University Press, 1993).Higgins, P. J. & Davies, S. J. J. F. (eds.) Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic Birds. Volume 3: Snipe to Pigeons (Oxford University Press, 1996).Andrew, S. C., Hurley, L. L., Mariette, M. M. & Griffith, S. C. Higher temperatures during development reduce body size in the zebra finch in the laboratory and in the wild. J. Evol. Biol. 30, 2156–2164 (2017).CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Morrick, Z. N. et al. Differential population trends align with migratory connectivity in an endangered shorebird. Conserv. Sci. Pract. 4, 1–13 (2022).
Google Scholar 
Hassell, C., Southey, I., Boyle, A. & Yang, H.-Y. Red knot Calidris canutus: subspecies and migration in the East Asian-Australasian flyway – where do all the red knot go? BirdingASIA 16, 89–93 (2011).
Google Scholar 
Battley, P. F. et al. Contrasting extreme long-distance migration patterns in bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica. J. Avian Biol. 43, 21–32 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Aharon-Rotman, Y., Buchanan, K. L., Clark, N. J., Klaassen, M. & Buttemer, W. A. Why fly the extra mile? Using stress biomarkers to assess wintering habitat quality in migratory shorebirds. Oecologia 182, 385–395 (2016).ADS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Aharon-Rotman, Y., Gosbell, K., Minton, C. & Klaassen, M. Why fly the extra mile? Latitudinal trend in migratory fuel deposition rate as driver of trans-equatorial long-distance migration. Ecol. Evol. 6, 6616–6624 (2016).PubMed 
PubMed Central 

Google Scholar 
Hollands, D. & Minton, C. Waders: The Shorebirds of Australia (Bloomings Books, 2012).Siepielski, A. M. et al. No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 286, 20191332 (2019).Ho, C. K., Pennings, S. C. & Carefoot, T. H. Is diet quality an overlooked mechanism for Bergmann’s rule? Am. Nat. 175, 269–276 (2010).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Piersma, T. et al. Fuel storage rates in Red Knots worldwide: facing the severest ecological constraint in tropical intertidal environments? In Birds of Two Worlds: Ecology and Evolution of Migration (eds Greenburg, R. & Marra, P. P.) (Smithsonian Institution Press, 2005).Hedenström, A. & Rosén, M. Predator versus prey: on aerial hunting and escape strategies in birds. Behav. Ecol. 12, 150–156 (2001).
Google Scholar 
Van Den Hout, P. J., Mathot, K. J., Maas, L. R. M. & Piersma, T. Predator escape tactics in birds: linking ecology and aerodynamics. Behav. Ecol. 21, 16–25 (2010).
Google Scholar 
Schemske, D. W., Mittelbach, G. G., Cornell, H. V., Sobel, J. M. & Roy, K. Is there a latitudinal gradient in the importance of biotic interactions? Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40, 245–269 (2009).
Google Scholar 
Cain, K. E. et al. Conspicuous plumage does not increase predation risk: a continent-wide test using model songbirds. Am. Nat. 193, 359–372 (2019).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Cohen, J. E., Pimm, S. L., Yodzis, P. & Saldana, J. Body sizes of animal predators and animal prey in food webs. J. Anim. Ecol. 62, 67–78 (1993).
Google Scholar 
Gotmark, F. & Post, P. Prey selection by sparrowhawks, Accipiter nisus: relative predation risk for breeding passerine birds in relation to their size, ecology and behaviour. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 351, 1559–1577 (1996).ADS 

Google Scholar 
McQueen, A. et al. Evolutionary drivers of seasonal plumage colours: colour change by moult correlates with sexual selection, predation risk and seasonality across passerines. Ecol. Lett. 22, 1838–1849 (2019).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Martínez, A. E. & Zenil, R. T. Foraging guild influences dependence on heterospecific alarm calls in Amazonian bird flocks. Behav. Ecol. 23, 544–550 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Gauthreaux, S. A. The ecological significance of behavioral dominance. In Social Behavior. Perspectives in Ethology, vol 3 (eds Bateson, P. P. G. & Klopfer, P. H.) (Springer, 1978).Friedman, N. R. et al. Evolution of a multifunctional trait: Shared effects of foraging ecology and thermoregulation on beak morphology, with consequences for song evolution. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 286, 20192474 (2019).Campbell-Tennant, D. J. E., Gardner, J. L., Kearney, M. R. & Symonds, M. R. E. Climate-related spatial and temporal variation in bill morphology over the past century in Australian parrots. J. Biogeogr. 42, 1163–1175 (2015).
Google Scholar 
Sullivan, T. N., Meyers, M. A. & Arzt, E. Scaling of bird wings and feathers for efficient flight. Sci. Adv. 5, 1–9 (2019).
Google Scholar 
Gosler, A. G., Greenwood, J. J. D., Baker, J. K. & Davidson, N. C. The field determination of body size and condition in passerines: a report to the British Ringing Committee. Bird. Study 45, 92–103 (1998).
Google Scholar 
Tattersall, G. J., Chaves, J. A. & Danner, R. M. Thermoregulatory windows in Darwin’s finches. Funct. Ecol. 32, 358–368 (2018).
Google Scholar 
Weeks, B. C. et al. Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds. Ecol. Lett. 23, 316–325 (2020).PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Minton, C. The history and achievements of the Victorian Wader Study Group. Stilt 50, 285–294 (2006).
Google Scholar 
Minton, C. The history of wader studies in north-west Australia. Stilt 50, 224–234 (2006).
Google Scholar 
Lowe, K. W. The Australian Bird Bander’s Manual (Australian Bird and Bat Banding Scemes, Australian National Parks and Wildlife Services, 1989).Aarif, K. M. Some aspects of feeding ecology of the lesser sand plover Charadrius mongolus in three different zones in the Kadalundy Estuary, Kerala, South India. Podoces 4, 100–1007 (2009).
Google Scholar 
Bates, D., Maechler, M. & Bolker, B. Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. J. Stat. Softw. 67, 1–48 (2015).
Google Scholar 
Rue, H. et al. Bayesian computing with INLA: a review. Annu. Rev. Stat. Its Appl. 4, 395–421 (2017).ADS 

Google Scholar 
Li, D., Dinnage, R., Nell, L. A., Helmus, M. R. & Ives, A. R. phyr: an r package for phylogenetic species-distribution modelling in ecological communities. Methods Ecol. Evol. 11, 1455–1463 (2020).
Google Scholar 
Simpson, D., Rue, H., Riebler, A., Martins, T. G. & Sørbye, S. H. Penalising model component complexity: a principled, practical approach to constructing priors. Stat. Sci. 32, 1–28 (2017).MathSciNet 
MATH 

Google Scholar 
Jetz, W., Thomas, G. H., Joy, J. B., Hartmann, K. & Mooers, A. O. The global diversity of birds in space and time. Nature 491, 444–448 (2012).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Schliep, K. Phangorn: phylogenetic analysis in R. Bioinformatics 27, 592–593 (2011).CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
McQueen, A et al. Data from: thermal adaptation best explains Bergmann’s and Allen’s rule across ecologically diverse shorebirds. Dryad Dataset. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xsj3tx9j5.Tattersall, G. J., Andrade, D. V. & Abe, A. S. Heat exchange from the toucan bill reveals a controllable vascular thermal radiator. Science 325, 468–470 (2009).ADS 
CAS 
PubMed 

Google Scholar 
Greenberg, R., Cadena, V., Danner, R. M. & Tattersall, G. Heat loss may explain bill size differences between birds occupying different habitats. PLoS One 7, 1–9 (2012).
Google Scholar 
Ryeland, J., Weston, M. A. & Symonds, M. R. E. Bill size mediates behavioural thermoregulation in birds. Funct. Ecol. 31, 885–893 (2017).
Google Scholar 
Pavlovic, G., Weston, M. A. & Symonds, M. R. E. Morphology and geography predict the use of heat conservation behaviours across birds. Funct. Ecol. 33, 286–296 (2019).
Google Scholar  More

International Energy Agency. Offshore Wind Outlook 2019. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/495ab264-4ddf-4b68-b9c0-514295ff40a7/Offshore_Wind_Outlook_2019.pdf (2019).United Nations. Report of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Goal Indicators. (E/CN.3/2016/2/Rev.1). 49. (New York: United Nations Economic and Social Council, 2016).Copping, A. et al. Annex IV State of the Science Report: Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development Around the World. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Annex-IV-2016-State-of-the-Science-Report_MR.pdf. Accessed 27 Feb 2020. (2016).Dean, N. Performance factors. Nature Energy 5, 5–5 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Global Wind Energy Council. Globarl offshore wind report 2020. https://gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2020/08/GWEC-offshore-wind-2020-5.pdf (2020).Jansen, M. et al. Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy. Nat. Energy 5, 614–622 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
IRENA. Global Renewables Outlook: Energy transformation 2050 (Edition: 2020), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-238-3. www.irena.org/publications (2020).Wiser, R. et al. Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050. Nat. Energy 6, 555–565 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
IRENA. Future of wind: Deployment, investment, technology, grid integration and socio-economic aspects (A Global Energy Transformation paper), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Oct/IRENA_Future_of_wind_2019.pdf (2019).European Commission. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. The European Green Deal. Brussels, 11.12.2019 COM(2019) 640 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2019%3A640%3AFIN (2019).European Commission. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. An EU Strategy to harness the potential of offshore renewable energy for a climate neutral future. Brussels, 19.11.2020 COM(2020) 741 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2020%3A741%3AFIN (2020).European Parliament. European Parliament resolution of 14 March 2019 on climate change – a European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy in accordance with the Paris Agreement (2019/2582(RSP)). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52019IP0217 (2019).Arneth, A. et al. Post-2020 biodiversity targets need to embrace climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 30882–30891 (2020).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Copping, A. E., Freeman, M. C., Gorton, A. M. & Hemery, L. G. Risk Retirement—Decreasing Uncertainty and Informing Consenting Processes for Marine Renewable Energy Development. J. Marine Sci. Eng. 8, 172 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
WWF. Environmental Impacts of Offshore Wind Power Production in the North Sea. A Literature Overview. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/sites/default/files/publications/WWF-OSW-Environmental-Impacts.pdf (2014).Cook, A. S. C. P., Humphreys, E. M., Bennet, F., Masden, E. A. & Burton, N. H. K. Quantifying avian avoidance of offshore wind turbines: Current evidence and key knowledge gaps. Marine Environ. Res. 140, 278–288 (2018).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Willsteed, E. A., Jude, S., Gill, A. B. & Birchenough, S. N. R. Obligations and aspirations: A critical evaluation of offshore wind farm cumulative impact assessments. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 82, 2332–2345 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Stelzenmüller, V. et al. Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment. Sci. Total Environ. 724, 138118 (2020).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Ehler, C. & Douvere, F. in Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and Man and the Biosphere Programme. IOC Manual and Guides No. 53, ICAM Dossier No. 6. Paris: UNESCO. 99pp. (2009).Borja, A. et al. Good Environmental Status of marine ecosystems: What is it and how do we know when we have attained it? Marine Pollut. Bull. 76, 16–27 (2013).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Peters, J. L., Remmers, T., Wheeler, A. J., Murphy, J. & Cummins, V. A systematic review and meta-analysis of GIS use to reveal trends in offshore wind energy research and offer insights on best practices. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 128, 109916 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gasparatos, A., Doll, C. N. H., Esteban, M., Ahmed, A. & Olang, T. A. Renewable energy and biodiversity: Implications for transitioning to a Green Economy. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 70, 161–184 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Xiao, Y. & Watson, M. Guidance on Conducting a Systematic Literature Review. J. Plan. Education Res. 39, 93–112 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mengist, W., Soromessa, T. & Legese, G. Method for conducting systematic literature review and meta-analysis for environmental science research. MethodsX 7, 100777 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pullin, A. & Stewart, G. Guidelines for Systematic Review in Environmental Management. Conserv. Biol. 20, 1647–1656 (2007).Article 

Google Scholar 
van der Molen, J., Smith, H. C. M., Lepper, P., Limpenny, S. & Rees, J. Predicting the large-scale consequences of offshore wind turbine array development on a North Sea ecosystem. Continental Shelf Res. 85, 60–72 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
De Backer, A., Van Hoey, G., Coates, D., Vanaverbeke, J. & Hostens, K. Similar diversity-disturbance responses to different physical impacts: Three cases of small-scale biodiversity increase in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Marine Pollut. Bull. 84, 251–262 (2014).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Floeter, J. et al. Pelagic effects of offshore wind farm foundations in the stratified North Sea. Prog. Oceanograph. 156, 154–173 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lindeboom, H. J. et al. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone; A compilation. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 035101 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bray, L. et al. Expected effects of offshore wind farms on Mediterranean Marine Life. J. Marine Sci. Eng. 4, 18 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dannheim, J. et al. Benthic effects of offshore renewables: identification of knowledge gaps and urgently needed research. ICES J. Marine Sci. 77, 1092–1108 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wilson, J. C. & Elliott, M. The habitat-creation potential of offshore wind farms. Wind Energy 12, 203–212 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hall, R., João, E. & Knapp, C. W. Environmental impacts of decommissioning: Onshore versus offshore wind farms. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 83, 106404 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Crain, C. M., Kroeker, K. & Halpern, B. S. Interactive and cumulative effects of multiple human stressors in marine systems. Ecol. Lett. 11, 1304–1315 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Korpinen, S. & Andersen, J. H. A Global Review of Cumulative Pressure and Impact Assessments in Marine Environments. Front. Marine Sci. 3, 00153 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nõges, P. et al. Quantified biotic and abiotic responses to multiple stress in freshwater, marine and ground waters. Sci. Total Environ. 540, 43–52 (2016).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Gissi, E. et al. A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment. Sci. Total Environ. 755, 142564 (2021).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Gușatu, L. F. et al. Spatial and temporal analysis of cumulative environmental effects of offshore wind farms in the North Sea basin. Sci. Rep. 11, 10125 (2021).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Gissi, E. et al. Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region. PLoS ONE 12, e0180501 (2017).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Vaissière, A. C., Levrel, H., Pioch, S. & Carlier, A. Biodiversity offsets for offshore wind farm projects: The current situation in Europe. Marine Policy 48, 172–183 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Iglesias, G., Tercero, J. A., Simas, T., Machado, I. & Cruz, E. Environmental Effects. In Wave and Tidal Energy (eds Greaves, D. & Iglesias, G.). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119014492.ch9 (2018).Causon, P. D. & Gill, A. B. Linking ecosystem services with epibenthic biodiversity change following installation of offshore wind farms. Environ. Sci. Policy 89, 340–347 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Copping, A. E. & Hemery, L. G. OES-Environmental 2020 State of the Science Report: Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development Around the World. Report for Ocean Energy Systems (OES). 323 pp., (2020).Gill, A. B. Offshore renewable energy: ecological implications of generating electricity in the coastal zone. J. Appl. Ecol. 42, 605–615 (2005).Article 

Google Scholar 
Scheidat, M. et al. Harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) and wind farms: A case study in the Dutch North Sea. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 025102 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Skov, H. et al. Patterns of migrating soaring migrants indicate attraction to marine wind farms. Biol. Lett. 12, 20160804 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vanermen, N. et al. Attracted to the outside: a meso-scale response pattern of lesser black-backed gulls at an offshore wind farm revealed by GPS telemetry. ICES J. Marine Sci. 77, 701–710 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Frank, B. Research on marine mammals summary and discussion of research results. In Offshore Wind Energy: Research on Environmental Impacts. 77–86 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-34677-7_8 (2006).Thaxter, C. B. et al. Bird and bat species’ global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment. Proc. Royal Soc. B.: Biol Sci. 284, 20170829 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wilson, J. C. et al. Coastal and Offshore Wind Energy Generation: Is It Environmentally Benign? Energies 3, 1383–1422 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Busch, M., Kannen, A., Garthe, S. & Jessopp, M. Consequences of a cumulative perspective on marine environmental impacts: Offshore wind farming and seabirds at North Sea scale in context of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Ocean Coastal Manag. 71, 213–224 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Garthe, S., Markones, N. & Corman, A.-M. Possible impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds: a pilot study in Northern Gannets in the southern North Sea. J. Ornithol. 158, 345–349 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Brandt, M. J., Diederichs, A., Betke, K. & Nehls, G. Responses of harbour porpoises to pile driving at the Horns Rev II offshore wind farm in the Danish North Sea. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 421, 205–216 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wilhelmsson, D., Malm, T. & Öhman, M. C. The influence of offshore windpower on demersal fish. ICES J. Marine Sci. 63, 775–784 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bergström, L., Sundqvist, F. & Bergström, U. Effects of an offshore wind farm on temporal and spatial patterns in the demersal fish community. Marine Ecol. Progr. Ser. 485, 199–210 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
van Hal, R., Griffioen, A. B. & van Keeken, O. A. Changes in fish communities on a small spatial scale, an effect of increased habitat complexity by an offshore wind farm. Marine Environ. Res. 126, 26–36 (2017).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Degraer, S. et al. Offshore wind farm artificial reefs affect ecosystem structure and functioning: A synthesis. Oceanography 33, 48–57 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zettler, M. L. & Pollehne, F. The Impact of Wind Engine Constructions on Benthic Growth Patterns in the Western Baltic. In Offshore Wind Energy: Research on Environmental Impacts (eds Köller, J., Köppel, J. & Peters, W.). 201–222 (Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006).Wilhelmsson, D. Marine environmental aspects of offshore wind power development. (Nova Science Publishers, Inc, 2010).Teilmann, J. & Carstensen, J. Negative long term effects on harbour porpoises from a large scale offshore wind farm in the Baltic – Evidence of slow recovery. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 045101 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Halouani, G. et al. A spatial food web model to investigate potential spillover effects of a fishery closure in an offshore wind farm. J. Marine Syst. 212, 103434 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Reubens, J. T., Degraer, S. & Vincx, M. The ecology of benthopelagic fishes at offshore wind farms: a synthesis of 4 years of research. Hydrobiologia 727, 121–136 (2014).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Wilber, D. H., Carey, D. A. & Griffin, M. Flatfish habitat use near North America’s first offshore wind farm. J. Sea Res. 139, 24–32 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Welcker, J. & Nehls, G. Displacement of seabirds by an offshore wind farm in the North Sea. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 554, 173–182 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vallejo, G. C. et al. Responses of two marine top predators to an offshore wind farm. Ecol. Evol. 7, 8698–8708 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Tougaard, J., Henriksen, O. D. & Miller, L. A. Underwater noise from three types of offshore wind turbines: Estimation of impact zones for harbor porpoises and harbor seals. J. Acoustical Soc. Am. 125, 3766–3773 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kastelein, R. A., Jennings, N., Kommeren, A., Helder-Hoek, L. & Schop, J. Acoustic dose-behavioral response relationship in sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) exposed to playbacks of pile driving sounds. Marine Environ. Res. 130, 315–324 (2017).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Vanermen, N. et al. Assessing seabird displacement at offshore wind farms: power ranges of a monitoring and data handling protocol. Hydrobiologia 756, 155–167 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Wahlberg, M. & Westerberg., H. Hearing in fish and their reactions to sounds from offshore wind farms. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 288, 295–309 (2005).Article 

Google Scholar 
Desholm, M. Avian sensitivity to mortality: Prioritising migratory bird species for assessment at proposed wind farms. J. Environ. Manag. 90, 2672–2679 (2009).Article 

Google Scholar 
Vanermen, N. et al. Seabird avoidance and attraction at an offshore wind farm in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hydrobiologia 756, 51–61 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Brandt, M. J. et al. Disturbance of harbour porpoises during construction of the first seven offshore wind farms in Germany. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 596, 213–232 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Masden, E. A., Haydon, D. T., Fox, A. D. & Furness, R. W. Barriers to movement: Modelling energetic costs of avoiding marine wind farms amongst breeding seabirds. Marine Pollut. Bull. 60, 1085–1091 (2010).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Lloret, J. et al. Unravelling the ecological impacts of large-scale offshore wind farms in the Mediterranean Sea. Sci. Total Environ. 824, 153803 (2022).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Everaert, J. Collision risk and micro-avoidance rates of birds with wind turbines in Flanders. Bird Study 61, 220–230 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Rice, J. et al. Indicators for Sea-floor Integrity under the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Ecol. Indicators 12, 174–184 (2012).Article 

Google Scholar 
Teixeira, H. et al. A Catalogue of Marine Biodiversity Indicators. Front. Marine Sci. 3, 00207 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Brabant, R., Vanermen, N., Stienen, E. & Degraer, S. Towards a cumulative collision risk assessment of local and migrating birds in North Sea offshore wind farms. Hydrobiologia 756, 63–74 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Desholm, M. & Kahlert, J. Avian collision risk at an offshore wind farm. Biol. Lett. 1, 296–298 (2005).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kelsey, E. C., Felis, J. J., Czapanskiy, M., Pereksta, D. M. & Adams, J. Collision and displacement vulnerability to offshore wind energy infrastructure among marine birds of the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf. J. Environ. Manag. 227, 229–247 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Graham, I. et al. Harbour porpoise responses to pile-driving diminish over time. R. Soc. Open Sci. 6, 190335 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lindeboom, H. J. & Degraer, S. In Long-term Research Challenges in Wind Energy—A Research Agenda by the European Academy of Wind Energy (eds Gijs van Kuik & Joachim Peinke) 77–81 (Springer International Publishing, 2016).Stenberg, C. et al. Long-term effects of an offshore wind farm in the North Sea on fish communities. Marine Ecol. Prog. Ser. 528, 257–265 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Salvador, S., Gimeno, L. & Sanz Larruga, F. J. The influence of regulatory framework on environmental impact assessment in the development of offshore wind farms in Spain: Issues, challenges and solutions. Ocean Coastal Manag. 161, 165–176 (2018).Article 

Google Scholar 
Bailey, H., Brookes, K. L. & Thompson, P. M. Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future. Aquatic Biosyst. 10, 8 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Apolonia, M., Fofack-Garcia, R., Noble, D. R., Hodges, J. & Correia da Fonseca, F. X. Legal and Political Barriers and Enablers to the Deployment of Marine Renewable Energy. Energies 14, 4896 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Borja, A. et al. Moving Toward an Agenda on Ocean Health and Human Health in Europe. Front. Marine Sci. 7, 00037 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
European Commission, Directorate-General for Environment, Guidance document on wind energy developments and EU nature legislation, Publications Office of the European Union https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2779/095188 (2021).O’Hagan, A. M. & Lewis, A. W. The existing law and policy framework for ocean energy development in Ireland. Marine Policy 35, 772–783 (2011).Article 

Google Scholar 
Long, R. D., Charles, A. & Stephenson, R. L. Key principles of marine ecosystem-based management. Marine Policy 57, 53–60 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Borgwardt, F. et al. Exploring variability in environmental impact risk from human activities across aquatic ecosystems. Sci. Total Environ. 652, 1396–1408 (2019).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Copping, A., Hanna, L., Van Cleve, B., Blake, K. & Anderson, R. M. Environmental Risk Evaluation System-an Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments. Estuaries Coasts 38, S287–S302 (2015).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lüdeke, J. Offshore Wind Energy: Good Practice in Impact Assessment, Mitigation and Compensation. J. Environ. Assess. Policy Manag. 19, 1750005 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Boehlert, G. W. & Gill, A. B. Environmental and ecological effects of ocean renewable energy development: a current synthesis. J. Oceanograph. 23, 68–81 (2010).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hammar, L., Wikström, A. & Molander, S. Assessing ecological risks of offshore wind power on Kattegat cod. Renew. Energy 66, 414–424 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
Nunneri, C., Lenhart, H. J., Burkhard, B. & Windhorst, W. Ecological risk as a tool for evaluating the effects of offshore wind farm construction in the North Sea. Reg Environ. Change 8, 31–43 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Hutchison, Z. L. et al. Offshore Wind Energy and Benthic Habitat Changes: Lessons from Block Island Wind Farm. Oceanography 33, 58–69 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pirttimaa, P. & Cruz, E. Ocean energy and the environment: Research and strategic actions. European Technology and Innovation Platform for Ocean Energy (ETIP Ocean), pp.36. https://www.etipocean.eu/assets/Uploads/ETIP-Ocean-Ocean-energy-and-the-environment.pdf (2020).Hooper, T., Beaumont, N. & Hattam, C. The implications of energy systems for ecosystem services: A detailed case study of offshore wind. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 70, 230–241 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Mangi, S. C. The Impact of Offshore Wind Farms on Marine Ecosystems: A Review Taking an Ecosystem Services Perspective. Proceedings of the IEEE 101, 999–1009, (2013).Pınarbaşı, K. et al. A modelling approach for offshore wind farm feasibility with respect to ecosystem-based marine spatial planning. Sci. Total Environ. 667, 306–317 (2019).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Maldonado, A. D. et al. A Bayesian Network model to identify suitable areas for offshore wave energy farms, in the framework of ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning. Sci. Total Environ. 838, 156037 (2022).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Stelzenmüller, V., Gimpel, A., Letschert, J., Kraan, C. & DÖRING, R. Research for PECH Committee – Impact of the use of offshore wind and other marine renewables on European fisheries. European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/652212/IPOL_STU(2020)652212_EN.pdf (2020).Galparsoro, I. et al. A new framework and tool for ecological risk assessment of wave energy converters projects. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 151, 111539 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kaikkonen, L., Parviainen, T., Rahikainen, M., Uusitalo, L. & Lehikoinen, A. Bayesian Networks in Environmental Risk Assessment: A Review. Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag. 17, 62–78 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
González, D. A., Gleeson, J. & McCarthy, E. Designing and developing a web tool to support Strategic Environmental Assessment. Environ. Modell. Softw. 111, 472–482 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pınarbaşı, K. et al. Decision support tools in marine spatial planning: Present applications, gaps and future perspectives. Marine Policy 83, 83–91 (2017).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pınarbaşı, K., Galparsoro, I. & Borja, Á. End users’ perspective on decision support tools in marine spatial planning. Marine Policy 108, 103658 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar  More

Keenan, T. F. et al. Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 598–604 (2014).CAS 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Buermann, W. et al. Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity. Nature 562, 110–114 (2018).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Finzi, A. C. et al. Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change. Ecol. Monogr. 90, e01423 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Keeling, C. D., Chin, J. F. S. & Whorf, T. P. Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements. Nature 382, 146–149 (1996).CAS 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Dragoni, D. et al. Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA. Glob. Chang. Biol. 17, 886–897 (2011).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Zhou, S. et al. Explaining inter-annual variability of gross primary productivity from plant phenology and physiology. Agric. For. Meteorol. 226–227, 246–256 (2016).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Fu, Z. et al. Maximum carbon uptake rate dominates the interannual variability of global net ecosystem exchange. Glob. Chang. Biol. 25, 3381–3394 (2019).PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Savage, J. A. & Chuine, I. Coordination of spring vascular and organ phenology in deciduous angiosperms growing in seasonally cold climates. New Phytol. 230, 1700–1715 (2021).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Delpierre, N. et al. Temperate and boreal forest tree phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models. Ann. For. Sci. 73, 5–25 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Xue, B.-L. et al. Global patterns of woody residence time and its influence on model simulation of aboveground biomass. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 31, 821–835 (2017).CAS 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Russell, M. B. et al. Residence times and decay rates of downed woody debris biomass/carbon in eastern US forests. Ecosystems 17, 765–777 (2014).CAS 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Richardson, A. D. et al. Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Glob. Chang. Biol. 18, 566–584 (2012).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Harris, N. L. et al. Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 234–240 (2021).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Pugh, T. A. M. et al. Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 4382–4387 (2019).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A. & Smith, B. Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 044008 (2012).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global carbon budget 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 3269–3340 (2020).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Fatichi, S., Leuzinger, S. & Körner, C. Moving beyond photosynthesis: from carbon source to sink-driven vegetation modeling. New Phytol. 201, 1086–1095 (2014).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Lu, X. & Keenan, T. F. No evidence for a negative effect of growing season photosynthesis on leaf senescence timing. Glob. Chang. Biol. 28, 3083–3093 (2022).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Jiang, M. et al. The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment. Nature 580, 227–231 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Oishi, A. C. et al. Warmer temperatures reduce net carbon uptake, but do not affect water use, in a mature southern Appalachian forest. Agric. For. Meteorol. 252, 269–282 (2018).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Delpierre, N., Berveiller, D., Granda, E. & Dufrêne, E. Wood phenology, not carbon input, controls the interannual variability of wood growth in a temperate oak forest. New Phytol. 210, 459–470 (2016).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Huang, J.-G. et al. Photoperiod and temperature as dominant environmental drivers triggering secondary growth resumption in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 20645–20652 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Rossi, S. et al. Critical temperatures for xylogenesis in conifers of cold climates. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 696–707 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Babst, F. et al. Twentieth century redistribution in climatic drivers of global tree growth. Sci. Adv. 5, eaat4313 (2019).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Gao, S. et al. An earlier start of the thermal growing season enhances tree growth in cold humid areas but not in dry areas. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 6, 397–404 (2022).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Zweifel, R. et al. Why trees grow at night. New Phytol. 231, 2174–2185 (2021).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Tumajer, J., Scharnweber, T., Smiljanic, M. & Wilmking, M. Limitation by vapour pressure deficit shapes different intra-annual growth patterns of diffuse- and ring-porous temperate broadleaves. New Phytol. 233, 2429–2441 (2022).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Etzold, S. et al. Number of growth days and not length of the growth period determines radial stem growth of temperate trees. Ecol. Lett. 25, 427–439 (2022).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Zani, D., Crowther, T. W., Mo, L., Renner, S. S. & Zohner, C. M. Increased growing-season productivity drives earlier autumn leaf senescence in temperate trees. Science 370, 1066–1071 (2020).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Zohner, C. M., Renner, S. S., Sebald, V. & Crowther, T. W. How changes in spring and autumn phenology translate into growth-experimental evidence of asymmetric effects. J. Ecol. 109, 2717–2728 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Cabon, A. et al. Cross-biome synthesis of source versus sink limits to tree growth. Science 376, 758–761 (2022).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
D’Orangeville, L. et al. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 2339–2351 (2018).PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Helcoski, R. et al. Growing season moisture drives interannual variation in woody productivity of a temperate deciduous forest. New Phytol. 223, 1204–1216 (2019).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
McMahon, S. M. & Parker, G. G. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands. Ecol. Evol. 5, 243–254 (2015).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
D’Orangeville, L. et al. Peak radial growth of diffuse-porous species occurs during periods of lower water availability than for ring-porous and coniferous trees. Tree Physiol. 42, 304–316 (2022).PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Richardson, A. D. et al. Seasonal dynamics and age of stemwood nonstructural carbohydrates in temperate forest trees. New Phytol. 197, 850–861 (2013).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Elmore, A. J., Nelson, D. M. & Craine, J. M. Earlier springs are causing reduced nitrogen availability in North American eastern deciduous forests. Nat. Plants 2, 16133 (2016).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Cuny, H. E. et al. Woody biomass production lags stem-girth increase by over one month in coniferous forests. Nat. Plants 1, 15160 (2015).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Tardif, J. C. & Conciatori, F. Influence of climate on tree rings and vessel features in red oak and white oak growing near their northern distribution limit, southwestern Quebec, Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 36, 2317–2330 (2006).Article 

Google Scholar 
Roibu, C.-C. et al. The climatic response of tree ring width components of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) and common oak (Quercus robur L.) from eastern Europe. Forests 11, 600 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Kern, Z. et al. Multiple tree-ring proxies (earlywood width, latewood width and δ13C) from pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), Hungary. Quat. Int. 293, 257–267 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Trumbore, S., Gaudinski, J. B., Hanson, P. J. & Southon, J. R. Quantifying ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange with a 14C label. Eos. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 83, 265–268 (2002).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Del Mar Delgado, M. et al. Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 31249–31258 (2020).Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Anderson-Teixeira, K. J. et al. Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests. Glob. Chang. Biol. 28, 245–266 (2022).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Banbury Morgan, R. et al. Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes. Glob. Chang. Biol. 27, 2840–2855 (2021).CAS 
PubMed 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Churkina, G., Schimel, D., Braswell, B. H. & Xiao, X. Spatial analysis of growing season length control over net ecosystem exchange. Glob. Chang. Biol. 11, 1777–1787 (2005).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Liu, H. et al. Phenological mismatches between above- and belowground plant responses to climate warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 97–102 (2022).CAS 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Novick, K. A. et al. The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 1023–1027 (2016).CAS 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Zhang, J. et al. Drought limits wood production of Juniperus przewalskii even as growing seasons lengthens in a cold and arid environment. CATENA 196, 104936 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Lian, X. et al. Summer soil drying exacerbated by earlier spring greening of northern vegetation. Sci. Adv. 6, eaax0255 (2022).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Bourg, N. A., McShea, W. J., Thompson, J. R., McGarvey, J. C. & Shen, X. Initial census, woody seedling, seed rain, and stand structure data for the SCBI SIGEO Large Forest Dynamics Plot. Ecology 94, 2111–2112 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar 
Anderson-Teixeira, K. J. et al. CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 21, 528–549 (2015).PubMed 
Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Davies, S. J. et al. ForestGEO: understanding forest diversity and dynamics through a global observatory network. Biol. Conserv. 253, 108907 (2021).Article 

Google Scholar 
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 

Google Scholar 
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S. & López-Moreno, J. I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J. Clim. 23, 1696–1718 (2010).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Herrmann, V. et al. Tree circumference dynamics in four forests characterized using automated dendrometer bands. PLoS ONE 11, e0169020 (2016).PubMed 
PubMed Central 
Article 
CAS 

Google Scholar 
Friedl, M., Gray, J. & Sulla-Menashe, D. MCD12Q2 MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Dynamics Yearly L3 Global 500m SIN Grid V006. LAADS DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD12Q2.006 (2019).Anderson-Teixeira, K. et al. Forestgeo/Climate: initial release. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.4041609 (2020).Benestad, R. E., Hanssen-Bauer, I. & Chen, D. Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (World Scientific, 2008).Boose, E. & Gould, E. Shaler Meteorological Station at Harvard Forest 1964–2002. Environmental Data Initiative https://doi.org/10.6073/PASTA/213335F5DAA17222A738C105B9FA60C4 (2021).Boose, E. Fisher Meteorological Station at Harvard Forest since 2001. Environmental Data Initiative https://doi.org/10.6073/PASTA/69E92642B512897032446CFE795CFFB8 (2021).Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F. & Latorre, B. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 3001–3023 (2014).Article 

Google Scholar 
van de Pol, M. et al. Identifying the best climatic predictors in ecology and evolution. Methods Ecol. Evol. 7, 1246–1257 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Gabry, J. et al. Rstanarm: Bayesian applied regression modeling via Stan. R package version 2.21.1 https://mc-stan.org/rstanarm (2020).Stan Development Team. Stan modeling language users guide and reference manual, 2.28. https://mc-stan.org/users/documentation/ (2019).Stokes, M. A. & Smiley, T. L. An Introduction to Tree-ring Dating (Univ. Arizona Press, 1968).Speer, J. H. Fundamentals of Tree-ring Research (Univ. Arizona Press, 2010).Alexander, M. R. et al. The potential to strengthen temperature reconstructions in ecoregions with limited tree line using a multispecies approach. Quat. Res. 92, 583–597 (2019).Article 

Google Scholar 
Dye, A. et al. Comparing tree-ring and permanent plot estimates of aboveground net primary production in three eastern U.S. forests. Ecosphere 7, e01454 (2016).Article 

Google Scholar 
Pederson, N. Climatic Sensitivity and Growth of Southern Temperate Trees in the Eastern United States: Implications for the Carbon Cycle—ProQuest (Columbia Univ., 2005).Maxwell, J. T. et al. Sampling density and date along with species selection influence spatial representation of tree-ring reconstructions. Clim. Past 16, 1901–1916 (2020).Article 

Google Scholar 
Cook, E. R. & Kairiukstis, L. A. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences (Springer Netherlands, 1990).Cook, E. R. A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree Ring Standardization (Univ. Arizona, 1985).Cook, E. R. & Peters, K. Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change. Holocene 7, 361–370 (1997).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Briffa, K. R. Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J. Clim. 10, 2548–2568 (1997).Article 
ADS 

Google Scholar 
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. http://www.R-project.org/ (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2020).Bunn, A. G. A dendrochronology program library in R (dplR). Dendrochronologia 26, 115–124 (2008).Article 

Google Scholar 
Zang, C. & Biondi, F. Dendroclimatic calibration in R: the bootRes package for response and correlation function analysis. Dendrochronologia 31, 68–74 (2013).Article 

Google Scholar  More

Authors and AffiliationsDepartment of Agronomy, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Alegre, BrazilAléxia Gonçalves Pereira, Marcia Flores da Silva Ferreira, Thamyres Cardoso da Silveira, José Henrique Soler-Guilhen, Guilherme Bravim Canal, Luziane Brandão Alves, Francine Alves Nogueira de Almeida & Adésio FerreiraDepartment of Biological Sciences, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, Bahia, BrazilFernanda Amato GaiottoAuthorsAléxia Gonçalves PereiraMarcia Flores da Silva FerreiraThamyres Cardoso da SilveiraJosé Henrique Soler-GuilhenGuilherme Bravim CanalLuziane Brandão AlvesFrancine Alves Nogueira de AlmeidaFernanda Amato GaiottoAdésio FerreiraCorresponding authorCorrespondence to
Marcia Flores da Silva Ferreira. More