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cpDNA haplotype databaseDNA sequencing of the choloroplast (cp) markers produced sequences of the following lengths: 573 bp (atpB-rbcL); 487 bp (petG-trnP); 500 bp (trnL1-trnL2); and 593 bp (psbM-trnD). Alignment of the 352 individuals from the 44 populations yielded a total 28 variable sites: 11 in the atpB-rbcL spacer, seven in both the petG-trnP and psbM-trnD spacers, and three in the trnL1-trnL2 spacer (Supplementary Table S1). Based on these 28 variable sites (21 base substitutions and 7 deletions) across the combined intergenic regions, a total of 22 unique haplotypes were found (Fig. 1a).Figure 1(a) Chloroplast haplotype distribution in the Shorea leprosula populations. The pie chart colours indicate haplotype distributions; and sector areas are proportional to sample size (Map was generated by ArcGIS-ArcMap version 10.8). (b) STRUCTURE analysis identified two clusters (K = 2) corresponding to Region A and B.Full size imageSSR allele frequency databaseThe reproducibility of SSR genotyping was confirmed by achieving consistent genotypes from five independent PCR amplifications on a single individual for each of the ten SSR loci. Individual bar plots from STRUCTURE analysis are presented in Fig. 1b. At the highest Delta K likelihood scores, the best representation of the data was K = 2 suggesting that the 44 populations in Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into two main genetic clusters: Region A and Region B. The first cluster, ‘Region A’ consists of 12 populations, namely SBadak, BPerangin, BEnggang, GJerai, RTelui, GInas, GBongsu, Belum, Piah, BHijau, Korbu and Bubu. The second cluster, ‘Region B’ consists of 32 populations, namely Behrang, Ampang, HGombak, HLangat, SLalang, PPanjang, Berembun, Angsi, Kenaboi, Triang, Pasoh, BSenggeh, GLedang, Krau, TNegara, Terenggun, SBetis, USat, CTongkat, HTerengganu, Jengai, AGading, Tekam, Beserah, Jengka, Lentang, Lesong, ERompin, GArong, Labis, AHitam and Panti. Similarly, the UPGMA dendrogram analysis also divided the 44 populations into two genetic clusters (Fig. 2) corresponding to Region A and B of the STRUCTURE result.Figure 2Dendrogram showing the relationship between 44 populations of Shorea leprosula in Peninsular Malaysia based on the UPGMA cluster analysis of SSR markers.Full size imageSSR allele frequency databases were established according to Region A and B, and characterized to evaluate the relative usefulness of each SSR marker in forensic investigation. The distribution of allele frequencies for each locus is listed in Table S2 (Region A database) and Table S3 (Region B database). Forensic parameters are shown in Table 1, with a total of 143 alleles and 174 alleles detected in the Region A and B databases, respectively. The observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosity ranged from 0.3570 to 0.8346 and 0.4375 to 0.8795, respectively for populations in the Region A database; and ranged from 0.3298 to 0.8356 and 0.3469 to 0.8793, respectively for populations in the Region B database. The power of discrimination (PD) for the SSR loci ranged from 0.601 to 0.972 and 0.554 to 0.975, in Region A and B databases, respectively. The most discriminating locus was Sle605 in both the Region A (PD = 0.972) and Region B (PD = 0.975) databases. Minimum allele frequency was adjusted for alleles falling below the thresholds of 0.0066 (Region A) and 0.0024 (Region B).Table 1 Genetic diversity and forensic variables (A: total number of alleles; Ho: observed heterozygosity; He: expected heterozygosity; PIC: polymorphic information content; HWE: Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium; MP: matching probability; PD: power of discrimination) for each the 10 SSR loci of Shorea leprosula in the Region A and B databases.Full size tableDeviations from HWE were detected in four of the SSR loci for Region A (SleT11, SleT15, SleT17 and Sle465) and six SSR loci in Region B (SleT01, SleT11, SleT15, SleT17, SleT29 and SleT31). We evaluated these loci in each population independently to rule out the possible presence of null alleles. There were four populations in Region A (GJerai, RTelui, GBongsu and Piah) where a single one locus deviated from HWE; whereas there were eight populations in Region B (Behrang, HGombak, SLalang, Angsi, Klau, USat, Jengka and Panti) with a single locus and a single population (GLedang) with two loci that deviated from HWE (Table S4). Observed deviation from HWE was substantially lower in each population (either absence or not more than two loci) and thus it might be due to Wahlund effect caused by population substructuring in both Region A and B. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) testing was used to evaluate the independence of frequencies for all the SSR genotypes. A total of 13.3% and 28.9% of the 45 pairwise loci were found significant evidence of LD for Region A and B, respectively. Some of the loci might be linked as a result of population substructuring and inbreeding (inbreeding coefficient = 0.0822 [Peninsular Malaysia]). These results are in line with observations in real populations, where the assumption of completely random mating and zero migration required for HWE and LD are unlikely to be met, either in humans, animals or plants 21,22,23.Mean self-assignment, the proportion of individuals correctly assigned back to their population, was 45.9% and ranged from 14.3% (Kenaboi) to 81.3% (CTongkat) between population (Table 2). At the regional level, correct assignment rate of individuals to their region of origin was higher, 87.4% for Region A and 90.0% for Region B, (average of 88.7%).Table 2 Self-assignment test outcomes for Shorea leprosula individuals at the population and regional levels.Full size tableConservativeness of the databaseThe coancestry coefficient (θ) for Peninsular Malaysia (0.0579) was higher than those of Region A (0.0454) and Region B (0.0500) (Table 3). A total of 4.54% and 5.00% of the genetic variability was distributed among populations within Region A and Region B, respectively. In terms of inbreeding coefficient (f), the value for the Region A database (f = 0.0892) was highest, followed by Peninsular Malaysia (f = 0.0822) and Region B (f = 0.0666). All the θ and f values were significantly greater than zero, demonstrated by the 95% confidence intervals not overlapping with zero. Both of the θ and f values were used to calculate the conservativeness of each database by testing the cognate database (Porigin) against the regional database (Pcombined). The databases were non-conservative at the calculated θ value. In order for both the Region databases (A and B) to be conservative, the value of θ was adjusted from 0.0454 to 0.1900 for Region A and from 0.0500 to 0.1500 for Region B. For the Region A database, the most common SSR profile frequency is 2.69 × 10–7 or 1 in 3.72 million and the rarest profile frequency is 1.84 × 10–14 or 1 in 54.3 trillion. For the Region B database, the most common SSR profile frequency is 1.06 × 10–7 or 1 in 9.43 million and the rarest profile frequency is 4.03 × 10–16 or 1 in 2.48 quadrillion.Table 3 Coancestry (θ) and inbreeding (f) coefficients for Shorea leprosula at each hierarchical level.Full size table More

Land Use Land Cover taxonomyThe classification schema or “taxonomy” for Dynamic World, shown in Table 1, was determined after a review of global LULC maps, including the USGS Anderson classification system18, ESA Land Use and Coverage Area frame Survey (LUCAS) land cover modalities19, MapBiomas classification20, and GlobeLand30 land cover types13. The Dynamic World taxonomy maintains a close semblance to the land use classes presented in the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (forest land, grassland, cropland, wetland, settlement, and other)21 to ensure easier application of the resulting data for estimating carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike single-pixel labels, which are usually defined in terms of percent cover thresholds, the Dynamic World taxonomy was applied using “dense” polygon-based annotations such that LULC labels are applied to areas of relatively homogenous cover types with similar colors and textures.Table 1 Dynamic World Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classification taxonomy.Full size tableTraining dataset collectionOur modeling approach relies on semi-supervised deep learning and requires spatially dense (i.e., ideally wall-to-wall) annotations. To collect a diverse set of training and evaluation data, we divided the world into three regions: the Western Hemisphere (160°W to 20°W), Eastern Hemisphere-1 (20°W to 100°E), and Eastern Hemisphere-2 (100°E to 160°W). We further divided each region by the 14 RESOLVE Ecoregions biomes22. We collected a stratified sample of sites for each biome per region based on NASA MCD12Q1 land cover for 20174. Given the availability of higher-resolution LULC maps in the United States and Brazil, we used the NLCD 201610 and MapBiomas 201720 LULC products respectively in place of MODIS products for stratification in these two countries.At each sample location, we performed an initial selection of Sentinel-2 images from 2019 scenes based on image cloudiness metadata reported in the Sentinel-2 tile’s QA60 band. We further filtered scenes to remove images with many masked pixels. We finally extracted individual tiles of 510 × 510 pixels centered on the sample sites from random dates in 2019. Tiles were sampled in the UTM projection of the source image and we selected one tile corresponding to a single Sentinel-2 ID number and single date.Further steps were then taken to obtain an “as balanced as possible” training dataset with respect to the LULC classifications from the respective LULC products. In particular, for each Dynamic World LULC category contained within a tile, the tile was labeled to be high, medium, or low in that category. We then selected an approximately equal number of tiles with high, medium or low category labels for each category.To achieve a large dataset of labeled Sentinel-2 scenes, we worked with two groups of annotators. The first group included 25 annotators with previous photo-interpretation and/or remote sensing experience. The expert group labeled approximately 4,000 image tiles (Fig. 1a), which were then used to train and measure the performance and accuracy of a second “non-expert” group of 45 additional annotators who labeled a second set of approximately 20,000 image tiles (Fig. 1b). A final validation set of 409 image tiles were held back from the modeling effort and used for evaluation as described in the Technical Validation section. Each image tile in the validation set was annotated by three experts and one non-expert to facilitate cross-expert and expert/non-expert QA comparisons.Fig. 1Global distribution of annotated Sentinel-2 image tiles used for model training and periodic testing (neither including 409 validation tiles). (a) 4,000 tiles interpreted by a group of 25 experts (b) 20,000 tiles interpreted by a group of 45 non-experts. Hexagons represent approximately 58,500 km2 areas and shading corresponds to the count of annotated tile centroids per hexagon.Full size imageAll Dynamic World annotators used the Labelbox platform23, which provides a vector drawing tool to mark the boundaries of feature classes directly over the Sentinel-2 tile (Fig. 2). We instructed both expert and non-expert annotators to use dense markup instead of single pixel labels with a minimum mapping unit of 50 × 50 m (5 × 5 pixels). For water, trees, crops, built area, bare ground, snow & ice, and cloud, this was a fairly straightforward procedure at the Sentinel-2 10 m resolution since these feature classes tend to appear in fairly homogenous agglomerations. Shrub & scrub and flooded vegetation classes proved to be more challenging as they tended not to appear as homogenous features (e.g. mix of vegetation types) and have variable appearance. Annotators used their best discretion in these situations based on the guidance provided in our training material (i.e. descriptions and examples in Table 1). In addition to the Sentinel-2 tile, annotators had access to a matching high-resolution satellite image via Google Maps and ground photography via Google Street View from the image center point. We also provided the date and center point coordinates for each annotation. All annotators were asked to label at least 70% of a tile within 20 to 60 minutes and were allowed to skip some tiles to best balance their labeling accuracy with their efficiency.Fig. 2Sentinel-2 tile and example reference annotation provided as part of interpreter training. This example was used to illustrate the Flooded vegetation class, which is distinguished by small “mottled” areas of water mixed with vegetation near a riverbed. Also note that some areas of the tile are left unlabeled.Full size imageImage preprocessingWe prepared Sentinel-2 imagery in a number of ways to accommodate both annotation and training workflows. An overview of the preprocessing workflow is shown in Fig. 3.Fig. 3Training inputs workflow. Annotations created using Sentinel-2 Level 2 A Surface Reflectance imagery are paired with masked and normalized Sentinel-2 Level 1 C Top of Atmosphere imagery, and inputs are augmented to create training inputs used for modeling. Cloud and shadow masking involves a three-step process that combines the Sentinel-2 Cloud Probability (S2C) product with the Cloud Displacement Index (CDI), which is used to correct over-masking of bright non-cloud targets” and directional distance transform (DDT), which is used to remove the expected path of shadows based on sun-sensor geometry.Full size imageFor training data collection, we used the Sentinel-2 Level-2A (L2A) product, which provides radiometrically calibrated surface reflectance (SR) processed using the Sen2Cor software package24. This advanced level of processing was advantageous for annotation, as it attempts to remove inter-scene variability due to solar distance, zenith angle, and atmospheric conditions. However, systematically produced Sentinel-2 SR products are currently only available from 2017 onwards. Therefore, for our modeling approach, we used the Level-1C (L1C) product, which has been generated since the beginning of the Sentinel-2 program in 2015. The L1C product represents Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance measurements and is not subject to a change in processing algorithm in the future. We note that for any L2A image, there is a corresponding L1C image, allowing us to directly map annotations performed using L2A imagery to the L1C imagery used in model training. All bands except for B1, B8A, B9, and B10 were kept, with all bands bilinearly upsampled to 10 m for both training and inference.In addition to our preliminary cloud filtering in training image selection, we adopted and applied a novel masking solution that combines several existing products and techniques. Our procedure is to first take the 10 m Sentinel-2 Cloud Probability (S2C) product available in Earth Engine25 and join it to our working set of Sentinel-2 scenes such that each image is paired with the corresponding mask. We compute a cloud mask by thresholding S2C using a cloud probability of 65% to identify pixels that are likely obscured by cloud cover. We then apply the Cloud Displacement Index (CDI) algorithm26 and threshold the result to produce a second cloud mask, which is intersected with the S2C mask to reduce errors of commission by removing bright non-cloud targets based on Sentinel-2 parallax effects. We finally intersect this sub-cirrus mask with a threshold on the Sentinel-2 cirrus band (B10) using the thresholding constants proposed for the CDI algorithm26, and take a morphological opening of this as our cloudy pixel mask. This mask is computed at 20 m resolution.In order to remove cloud shadows, we extend the cloudy pixel mask 5 km in the direction opposite the solar azimuthal angle using the scene level metadata “SOLAR_AZIMUTH_ANGLE” and a directional distance transform (DDT) operation in Earth Engine. The final cloud and shadow mask is resampled to 100 m to decrease both the data volume and processing time. The resulting mask is applied to Sentinel-2 images used for training and inference such that unmasked pixels represent observations that are likely to be cloud- and shadow-free.The distribution of Sentinel-2 reflectance values are highly compressed towards the low end of the sensor range, with the remainder mostly occupied by high return phenomena like snow and ice, bare ground, and specular reflection. To combat this imbalance, we introduce a normalization scheme that better utilizes the useful range of Sentinel-2 reflectance values for each band. We first log-transform the raw reflectance values to equalize the long tail of highly reflective surfaces, then remap percentiles of the log-transformed values to points on a sigmoid function. The latter is done to bound on (0, 1) without truncation, and condenses the extreme end members of reflectances to a smaller range.To account for an annotation skill differential between the non-expert and expert groups, we one-hot encode the labeled pixels, and smooth them according to the confidence in a binary label of the individual annotator (expert/non-expert): this is effectively linearly interpolating the distributions per-pixel from their one-hot encoding (i.e. a vector of binary variables for each class label) to uniform probability. We used 0.2 for experts, and 0.3 for non-experts (i.e. ~82% confidence on the true class for experts and ~73% confidence on the true class for the non-expert. We note that these values approximately mirror the Non-Expert to Expert Consensus agreement as discussed in the Technical Validation section). This is akin to standard label-smoothing27,28, with the addition that the degree of smoothing is associated with annotation confidence.We generate a pair of weights for each pixel in an augmented example designed to compensate for class imbalance across the training set and weight high-frequency spatial features at the inputs during “synthesis” (discussed further in the following section). We also include a weight per pixel designed to attenuate labels in the center of labeled polygons where human annotators often missed small details using a simple edge finding kernel.We finally perform a series of augmentations (random rotation and random per-band contrasting) to our input data to improve generalizability and performance of our model. These augmentations are applied four times to each example to yield our final training dataset of examples paired with class distributions, masks, and weights (Fig. 3).Model trainingOur broad approach to transferring the supervised label data to a system that could be applied globally was to train a Fully Convolutional Neural Network (FCNN)29. Conceptually, this approach transforms pre-processed Sentinel-2 optical bands to a discrete probability distribution of the classes in our taxonomy on the basis of spatial context. This is done per-image with the assumption that sufficient spatial and spectral context is available to recover one of our taxonomic labels at a pixel. There are a few notable benefits to such an approach: namely that given the generalizability of modern deep neural networks, it is possible, as we will show, to produce a single model that achieves acceptable agreement with hand-digitized expert annotations globally. Furthermore, since model outputs are generated from a single image and a single model, it is straightforward to scale as each Sentinel-2 L1C image need only be observed once.Although applying CNN modeling, including FCNN, to recover LULC is not a new idea30,31,32, we introduce a number of novel innovations that achieve state-of-the-art performance on LULC globally with a neural network architecture almost 100x smaller than architectures used for semantic segmentation or regression of ground-level camera imagery (specifically compared to U-Net33 and DeepLab v3+34 architectures). Our approach also leverages weak supervision by way of a synthesis pathway: this pathway includes a replica of the labeling model architecture that learns a mapping from estimated probabilities back to the input reflectances, in a way, a reverse LULC classifier that offers both multi-tasking and a constraint to overcome deficiencies in human labeling (Fig. 4).Fig. 4Training protocol used to recover the labeling model. The bottom row shows the progression from a normalized Sentinel-2 L1C image, to class probabilities, to synthesized Sentinel-2. The dashed red and blue arrows show how the labeling model is optimized with respect to both the class probability and synthesis pathway, and the synthesis model is optimized only with respect to the synthesized imagery. The example image is retrieved from Earth Engine using ee.Image(‘GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1/20190517T083601_20190517T083604_T37UET’).Full size imageNear real-time inferenceUsing Earth Engine in combination with Cloud AI Platform, it is possible to handle enormous quantities of satellite data and apply custom image processing and classification methods using a simple scaling paradigm (Fig. 5). To generate our NRT products, we apply the normalization described earlier to the raw Sentinel-2 L1C imagery and pass all normalized bands except B1, B8A, B9 and B10 after bilinear upscaling to ee.Model.predictImage. This output is then masked using our cloud mask derived from the unnormalized L1C image. Creation of these images is triggered automatically when new Sentinel-2 L1C and S2C images are available. The NRT collection is continuously updated with new results. For a full Sentinel-2 tile (roughly 100 km x 100 km), predictions are completed on the order of 45 minutes. In total, we evaluate ~12,000 Sentinel-2 scenes per day, processing half on average due to a filter criteria on the CLOUDY_PIXEL_PERCENTAGE metadata of 35%. A new Dynamic World LULC image is processed approximately every 14.4 s.Fig. 5Near-Real-Time (NRT) prediction workflow. Input imagery is normalized following the same protocol used in training and the trained model is applied to generate land cover predictions. Predicted results are masked to remove cloud and cloud shadow artifacts using Sentinel-2 cloud probabilities (S2C), the Cloud Displacement Index (CDI) and a directional distance transform (DDT), then added to the Dynamic World image collection.Full size image More

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Chloroplast and repetitive nuclear DNA enrichment in the sedaDNA extractsTo the best of our knowledge, we generated the first large-scale target enriched dataset using sedaDNA extracted from sediments of multiple lakes. Sequencing of two datasets produced 325.5 million (M) quality-filtered paired-end DNA sequences. The first target enriched dataset, targeting both the chloroplast and a set of nuclear genes of Larix on 64 sedaDNA extracts and 19 negative controls from seven lake sediment records resulted in 324 M quality-filtered paired-end sequences. The second target enriched dataset, targeting only the set of nuclear genes of Larix on four samples and two negative controls from an additional lake (Lake CH12) resulted in 1.5 M sequences. Quality-filtering of an additional published target enriched dataset29, targeting the Larix chloroplast genome on the same CH12 samples as applied for the second dataset, added another 54 M sequences.For the chloroplast enrichment, 390 thousand (K) sequences (1%) were classified as Larix at the genus or species level. The average coverage of bait regions was 19% at a mean sequence depth of 0.8. Sequencing of 19 library and extraction blank (negative control) samples resulted in 597 K paired-end sequences, of which 58% quality-filtered and deduplicated sequences remained. Of these, 38% were classified, with 0.03% of them (463 sequences) corresponding to the genus Larix. Negative controls from library preparation resulted in no to very few (0 to 5) sequences mapping to the Larix chloroplast reference genome. Negative controls from DNA extractions, which were in several cases pooled to one library, showed a low number of sequences mapped to Larix (0 to 94 sequences, except 237 sequences in one case). Excluding all sequences in negative controls from the sample analysis had no impact on the patterns resulting from the analysis of sample data. Detailed results and evaluation of negative controls are included in the Supplementary Information (Fig. S5) and Supplementary Data 1 and 2. Samples of all lake records with sufficient sequence coverage showed damage patterns typical of ancient DNA (see Supplementary Data 3).These results are comparable to the results obtained by Schulte et al.29, where 36% of quality-filtered sequences were classified as Viridiplantae with 9% assigned to Larix. In contrast to29, we raised the confidence threshold of taxonomic classification (a parameter defining the number of k-mers needed to produce a match against a taxon in the database), which drastically reduced the number of classified sequences, but increased the confidence in the analysis36.To analyze the enrichment obtained by the nuclear gene bait set, taxonomic classification was repeated using a plant genome database including available Pinaceae genomes. The classification resulted in 716 K sequences assigned to Larix, increasing the previous results by 325 K sequences. However, almost no sequences were mapped against the targeting baits (a maximum of five sequences for some samples). A closer inspection of unmapped sequences assigned to Larix revealed a high content of repetitive DNAs. More specifically, taxonomically classified Larix sequences could be assembled to EulaSat1, the most abundant satellite repeat in the nuclear genome of Larix32,37. This short repeat with a 173 bp long motif is arranged in large arrays of tandemly repeated motifs and is exclusively present in larches32. Analysis of modern L. sibirica, and L. gmelinii (western and eastern range) genomes reveals that EulaSat1 occurs in all species, contributing to 0.62% (L. sibirica), 2.52% (western range L. gmelinii), and 2.39% (eastern range L. gmelinii), of the genomes, respectively (Fig. S2). A comparison of the sequence proportions mapping to the repeat motif in the different datasets of Lake CH12 showed a specific enrichment of the repeat motif by the nuclear gene hybridization probe set (Fig. S3).In total, 17 K sequences mapped to the repeat motif of EulaSat1. The abundance of all sequences mapped per sample is in agreement with the abundance of sequences mapped to the chloroplast genome, confirming the general history of forest development (Fig. 2). Analysis of the nucleotide frequencies in the repeat motif showed a high constancy over all samples (Fig. S4). This suggests high conservation of the EulaSat1 motif in Siberian larches over time and space. Although satellite repeats are reported to have a high sequence turnover, for larches it has been shown that repeat profiles between two geographically well-separated species—the European larch (L. decidua) and the Japanese larch (L. kaempferi)—are very similar32. The main satellite in all larches, EulaSat1, is believed to have greatly multiplied after the split of Larix from Pseudotsuga32. Given the ongoing hybridization between the three Siberian larch species, it is not surprising to find a consistent pattern of nucleotide frequencies in all samples.Fig. 2: Comparison of target enrichment with available DNA metabarcoding and pollen datasets.From left to right: Larix-classified sequence counts mapping to (1) the Larix chloroplast and (2) the EulaSat1 satellite repeat motif, (3) percentage of Larix counts in metabarcoding data, (4) percentage of Larix pollen in pollen assemblages. All data from this study, except metabarcoding data from lakes CH1213 and Bolshoye Shchuchye55 and all pollen data except for several samples of Lake Kyutyunda which were produced in this study56,57,71. Pollen data of Lake Lama and the Holocene part of Lake Kyutyunda are based on parallel sediment cores PG1111 and PG2022, respectively. No available data are marked with crosses, asterisk marks a single Larix pollen grain found in the Bolshoye Shchuchye sediments.Full size imageOff-target sequences in target enriched datasets have already been demonstrated to be useful for the analysis of high-copy DNA such as ribosomal DNA or plastomes34,38,39. A recent study on five modern sedges showed that target enriched sequencing data originally targeting a set of gene exons can also be used to study the repetitive sequence fraction and even infer phylogenetic relationships based on repetitive sequence abundance35. Another study showed that also sequence similarities between homologous repeat motifs can be used to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among closely related taxa40,41. In the case of Larix satellite EuLaSat1 in our study, no change in nucleotide frequencies, neither related to locations nor in time, could be detected. However, our results show that the off-target fraction in target enriched sedaDNA datasets can hold valuable information and that repeat motifs in more diverse taxon groups could even be a target for enrichment. Specifically enriching for repeat motifs in sedaDNA extracts could enable the study of satellite repeat evolution as well as giving additional information on species abundance and phylogeography.In the two target enriched datasets, sequences taxonomically classified to the genus Larix and mapping to the chloroplast and to the repeat sequence, respectively, show similar patterns of abundance (see Fig. 2). Compared with published metabarcoding and pollen data from the same locations, the Larix abundance patterns can be globally reproduced, underpinning the notion that sequence abundances in target enriched data can be used as good estimates of plant abundances. For older parts of the lake records, target enriched data show Larix where metabarcoding data were unable to detect a clear signal (see Fig. 2, lakes Billyakh, Bolshoye Shchuchye, Kyutyunda, and Lama). This shows that target enrichment is superior to metabarcoding when analyzing one taxonomic group in-depth, as it is less prone to errors by DNA degradation, which can impede primer binding if the molecule becomes too short. Also, independent of age, rare taxa mostly need multiple PCR replicates to be detected by metabarcoding42,43. Target enrichment, however, is more sensitive in identifying one focal taxon group, as the total target length can be much larger (e.g., a complete organellar genome) than for metabarcoding, and the DNA damage patterns are put to use to authenticate ancient DNA. Also, it is limited by molecule length only by the applied threshold in the bioinformatic analysis, for which we used 30 base pairs (bp) as opposed to a minimum of 85 bp molecule length for the Larix metabarcoding marker (for the plant-specific trnL g/h marker44). Similarly, compared to traditional pollen analysis, target enrichment is more accurate at tracing a specific target group, as it is not dependent on pollen productivity. Especially in the case of Larix, pollen productivity is low and preservation poor, resulting in rare findings of its pollen in the sediments22,45. This could explain why for Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye, only a single Larix pollen grain was retrieved throughout the core, whereas target enrichment and metabarcoding show a strong signal in the Holocene sediments (last ~12 ka BP). Target-enriched data also records signals in MIS 2 sediments, however, sequence counts are extremely low, and as it is the only record, where both of the other proxies fail to report a signal, it should be interpreted with caution.A wider pre-glacial distribution of L. sibirica
Chloroplast genomes of L. gmelinii and L. sibirica differ at 157 positions, which can be used to differentiate species in target enriched sedaDNA29. Here, we applied this approach to lake sediment records, which are distributed across Siberia (Fig. 1) and have time ranges back to MIS3, and thereby were able to track species composition in space and time for wide parts of the species ranges.In lakes Billyakh and Kyutyunda, ca. 1500 km east of L. sibirica current range (Fig. 1), we found evidence for a wider distribution of L. sibirica around 32 and 34 ka BP in MIS3 (Fig. 3). Billyakh is situated in the western part of the Verkhoyansk Mountains, and Kyutyunda on the Central Siberian Plateau. Both lakes have low counts of Larix DNA sequences in their oldest samples dated to 51 ka BP (Billyakh) and 38 ka BP (Kyutyunda) with variants of L. gmelinii, but there is a sudden rise in variants attributed to L. sibirica at 34 ka BP (Billyakh) and 32 ka BP (Kyutyunda), which persists in the following samples, but strongly decreases in younger samples (Fig. 3). The rise in the L. sibirica DNA sequence variants coincides with a peak in sequence counts for Lake Kyutyunda. These signals suggest a rapid invasion of L. sibirica into the ranges of L. gmelinii in climatically favorable times and a local depletion or extinction of L. sibirica during the following harsher climates. Lake Billyakh pollen data suggest a moister and warmer climate around 50–30 ka BP than in the latter part of the Last Glacial associated with the MIS3 Interstadial in Siberia46.Fig. 3: Percentage and sequence counts at variable positions along Larix chloroplast genome assigned to species.Left: Alignment of Larix-classified DNA sequences against the chloroplast genome at the 157 variable positions between the species. For each position, the percentage of sequences assigned to a single species is displayed. Each row represents one sample named according to the calibrated age before present. Gray background indicates no coverage at the respective position. Right: Total number of sequences assigned to each of the species per sample.Full size imageStrong support for a wider pre-glacial distribution of L. sibirica comes from genetic analyses which show that it is genetically close to L. olgensis, today occurring on the Korean Peninsula and adjacent areas of China and Russia27,47. It is assumed that the L. sibirica-L. olgensis complex used to share a common range, which was disrupted and displaced when the better cold-adapted L. gmelinii expanded south and southwest during the more continental climatic conditions of the Pleistocene47,48. Furthermore, modern and ancient genetic studies suggest that the L. sibirica zone was recently invaded by L. gmelinii from the east in the hybridization zone of the species, as the climate cooled after the mid-Holocene thermal maximum13,23. Today, pure stands of L. sibirica do not form a continuous habitat, but occur in netted islands5 and morphological features of L. sibirica can be found in populations of L. gmelinii located at least a hundred kilometers east of the closest L. sibirica populations49. Macrofossil findings of L. sibirica in Scandinavia dated to the early Holocene, point to the capability of rapid long-distance jump dispersal of this species50. Fossil L. sibirica cones dated to the end of the Pliocene and in the Pleistocene have also been found far east of its current range in several river valleys including Kolyma, Aldan, and Omolon, and even in the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk9. These indicate long-distance seed dispersal by rivers which may also have assisted in successful establishment since the active-layer depth is deeper close to rivers51,52. As mentioned earlier, L. sibirica is sensitive to permafrost and waterlogged soils. A warmer phase with a deeper thawed layer above the permafrost could have enabled L. sibirica to spread and establish in regions that today are part of the geographic range of L. gmelinii, as L. sibirica is reported to have higher growth rates than L. gmelinii13.
Larix gmelinii formed northern LGM refugia across SiberiaThe possible survival of Larix in high latitude glacial refugia during the LGM is still under discussion4,53 although more and more evidence is reported in favor of the existence of such refugia17,20,21. The question of which of the Larix species formed these populations has hitherto been unanswered, as both pollen and established metabarcoding markers are not able to distinguish between species in the genus Larix, and findings of fossilized cones identifiable to species are rare. By enriching sedaDNA extracts for chloroplast genome sequences, we are, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, able to distinguish between L. sibirica and L. gmelinii in glacial refugial populations.From Lake Lama, located at the western margin of the Putorana Plateau (Taymyr Peninsula), we obtained a continuous record extending from 23 ka BP to today with varying sequence counts with minima around 18–17 ka BP and 13 ka BP. All samples prior to the Holocene show variations predominantly assigned to L. gmelinii (Fig. 3). Our results suggest a local survival of L. gmelinii in the vicinity of Lake Lama throughout the LGM, which is supported by low numbers of Larix pollen detected through this period. Both target enriched sequence data and pollen indicate an increase from ca. 11 ka BP54. Sparse Larix pollen in the bottom part of the record could be an indication of a possible refugial population (Fig. 2; ref. 54).In Bolshoye Shchuchye, the westernmost lake of the study, situated in the Polar Ural Mountains, all Pleistocene samples show similarly a dominance of L. gmelinii sequence variations (Fig. 3). However, sequence counts for some samples are extremely low and samples from 18 and 10 ka BP had so low counts of mapped DNA sequences that none of the variable positions between the species was covered. Although sequences mapped to the satellite repeat of Larix also showed a Pleistocene signal, this was not repeated in pollen or metabarcoding (Fig. 2) which instead indicates a treeless arctic-alpine flora for the late Pleistocene55,56. Especially for the sample of 20.4 ka, Larix sequence counts are extremely low and new investigations would be needed to confirm a local presence of Larix during the LGM.The record of Lake Billyakh situated in the western Verkhoyansk Mountain Range, likewise shows extremely low counts of sequences mapped to the reference for a range of samples with no sequences covering the studied variable sites (45, 42, and 15 ka BP, 11–56 sequences mapped to non-variable sites). However, the pollen record for the same core shows a quasi-continuous record of Larix with a gap only occurring during the early LGM46 (25–22 ka BP, Fig. 2). Considering the known short-distance dispersal ability and poor preservation of Larix pollen, this strongly supports the presumed existence of a local glacial refugium at Lake Billyakh during that time20. Our samples also show a low but steady presence of Larix throughout the rest of the record, thus making glacial survival probable. The sample closest to the LGM (24 ka BP) indicates a clear dominance of L. gmelinii type variations.The only exception to this general pattern is the record from Lake Kyutyunda, which is located on the Central Siberian Plateau west of the Verkhoyansk Mountain Range. In this record, LGM samples have extremely low counts but show variations assigned to L. sibirica and not to L. gmelinii as in the other lakes. In addition, the preceding sample dated to the MIS3 interstadial shows L. sibirica variation. A possible explanation is that relics of L. sibirica survived during the LGM, but were unable to spread after climate warming, possibly due to genetic depletion or later local extinction. The presence of reworked sediment material can also not be excluded, as suggested by reworked pollen in the record57.In conclusion, our data show almost exclusively L. gmelinii variation for samples covering the most severe LGM climate conditions. This is in agreement with the ecological characteristics describing the species as adapted to extreme cold. In contrast to L. sibirica, it can grow in dwarf forms and propagate clonally and potentially survive thousands of years of adverse climatic conditions58.Postglacial colonization history—differences among larch speciesOf great interest in the Larix history is not only the location and extent of possible high latitude glacial refugia but also if and to what extent these refugia contributed to the recolonization of Siberia after the LGM. Northern refugial populations could have functioned as kernels of postglacial population spread and recolonization, or spreading could have been driven by populations that survived in southern refugia. There are only a few studies on modern populations that report evidence for possible recolonization scenarios of Larix23,27,28. Here, we show that patterns differ between L. sibirica and L. gmelinii.In the western part of our study region, two lakes are situated in the current distribution range of L. sibirica (Figs. 1, 4): Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye in the Polar Ural Mountains and Lake Lama on the Taymyr Peninsula. Despite this, both lakes show L. gmelinii for all Pleistocene samples, and a strong signal of L. sibirica variants only in the Holocene samples, with ages of 5.1 ka BP in Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye and 9.7 ka BP in Lake Lama (Fig. 3). The peak in L. sibirica also coincides with a peak of sequence counts in the respective sample, with a Larix pollen peak in Lake Lama sediments54, and metabarcoding for Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye55. This points to a migration of L. sibirica in its current northern area of northern distribution in the course of climate warming during the early Holocene, whereas glacial refugial populations were consisting of L. gmelinii. Although the local survival of L. gmelinii around Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye remains uncertain due to extremely low sequence counts, it is clear that L. sibirica did not form a refugial population at this site.Fig. 4: Percentage of DNA sequences assigned to references displayed on the geographical locations of the lakes investigated.Samples in the same time frame are averaged. Lake names and current species ranges are annotated in the middle plots. Colors indicate current species distribution (adapted from Semerikov and Lascoux72). The base map is done with ggmap73, map tiles by Stamen Design, under CC BY 3.0. Data by OpenStreetMap, under ODbL.Full size imageA range-wide genetic study of L. sibirica analyzing chlorotypes and mitotypes of individuals23 found strong indications for rapid colonization of the West Siberian Plains from populations originating from the foothills of the Sayan Mountains in the south, close to the border of Mongolia, with only limited contribution from local populations. According to our results, the local populations could have been L. gmelinii populations, while the rapid invasion could have been L. sibirica.In the eastern range of the study region, in the current range of L. gmelinii, namely at lakes Emanda, Satagay, and Malaya Chabyda, genetic variations throughout the records are less pronounced. Of the three lake records, only that from Lake Emanda reaches back beyond the LGM, but with a sampling gap for the time of the LGM. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether populations survived the LGM locally, or whether they were invaded or replaced by populations coming from the south with Holocene warming. The restricted variations throughout the record, however, hint at stable populations, which is supported by scarce pollen findings (Fig. 2).Our data suggest that postglacial recolonization of L. sibirica was not started from high latitude glacial refugia, but from southern populations. In contrast, northern glacial populations of L. gmelinii could have potentially enhanced rapid dispersal after the LGM in their current area of distribution.Environment likely plays a more important role than historical factorsThe current boundaries of boreal Larix species arranged from west to east suggest a possible strong influence of the historical species distribution on the current distribution, whereas the gradient of increasing continental climate towards the east assumes a strong influence on the environment. By tracking species distribution in the past, spanning the time of the strongly adverse climate of the LGM, we can give hitherto unprecedented insights into species distribution history.Several lines of evidence suggest a strong influence of the environment on species distribution: (1) Signals for L. sibirica appeared in its current area of distribution as late as the Holocene warming, whereas cold Pleistocene samples are dominated by L. gmelinii type variation; (2) in lakes far east of its modern range, signals of variation typical for L. sibirica coincide with peaks in sequence counts (29 ka BP, Lake Billyakh; 32 ka BP Lake Kyutyunda), which point to more forested vegetation around the lakes and consequently a more favorable climate at that time; and (3) samples dated to the severely cold LGM are dominated by variations of the L. gmelinii type.This is in accordance with the different ecological characteristics described for the species. L. sibirica is sensitive to permafrost and only occurs outside of the zone of continuous permafrost5. In addition, L. sibirica achieves substantially higher growth rates and longer growth periods than L. gmelinii9,13 and can also produce more than twice as many seeds5. This potentially gives L. sibirica the ability to quickly react to climate change and outcompete the other species when the climate becomes more favorable.In contrast, L. gmelinii is adapted to extremely low soil and air temperatures and is able to grow on permafrost with very shallow thaw depths. It’s distribution almost completely coincides with continuous permafrost5, and even a restriction to permafrost areas is discussed as it does not grow well in field trials on warmer soils or where there is a small temperature gradient between air and soil9. Due to this ecology, L. gmelinii is more likely to survive in a high latitude refugium, even during the severe continental climate of the LGM, which was most probably connected to continuous permafrost of low active-layer depths.A study combining mitochondrial barcoding on sedaDNA and a modeling approach on Larix distribution in the Taymyr region around Lake CH12 concluded that the distributions of L. gmelinii and L. sibirica are most strongly influenced by stand density and thus by competition between the species, with L. gmelinii outcompeting L. sibirica at high stand densities13. As our study includes sediment cores reaching further back in time, we see a different trend. Instead of L. gmelinii, it was L. sibirica, which dominated samples with high sequence counts, suggesting high stand density and a more favorable climate. A possible explanation for the different outcomes is the use of different organelle genomes. Epp et al.13 used a marker representing the mitochondrial genome, which is known to introgress more rapidly and as a consequence might show a long past species history59,60.Our findings have potentially important implications for the projections of vegetation-climate feedback. A warming climate in conjunction with a greater permafrost thaw depth could enable the replacement of L. gmelinii by L. sibirica. In contrast to L. gmelinii, L. sibirica is not known to stabilize permafrost thus potentially further promoting permafrost thaw and with it the release of greenhouse gases, creating positive feedback on global warming11. On the other hand, the substantially higher growth rates of L. sibirica in comparison to L. gmelinii would increase carbon sequestration, thus mitigating global warming13. This shows the importance of understanding species-specific reactions to climate change, which can result in great shifts in distribution. Target enrichment applied on sedaDNA is able to reveal the impact of past climate change on populations and the increasing availability of modern reference genomes will further enhance its value of information. More