Ecology

Climate dataMonthly climate data (air temperature at 2 m and cloudiness) with a spatial resolution of 0.5° were obtained from the CRU Time Series 4.0.15 We extracted data from 1982 to 2018 to match the time series of satellite vegetation observations. The VPD was calculated as the difference between saturated water-vapour pressure and actual water-vapour pressure31. Temperature and vapour-pressure data used for the VPD calculation were obtained from CRU.Soil moisture dataThe daily root-zone soil moisture with a spatial resolution of 0.25° for the period 1980–2018 was obtained from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM v.3.3a)32. The dataset is based on radiation and air temperature from a reanalysis, a combination of gauge-based, reanalysis-based and satellite-based precipitation and satellite-based vegetation optical depth.Fire emission dataMonthly carbon emissions from biomass burning were obtained from the fourth-generation Global Fire Emission Database33. This dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.25° and provides global data on the burning area and emissions on three-hourly, daily and monthly timescales and estimates the contributions of different fire types. Emissions data can be obtained for different substances, such as carbon (C), dry matter (DM), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4).Satellite vegetation greenness dataThe satellite-based NDVI archived from the MODIS NDVI dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a temporal resolution of 16 days was used here to detect vegetation greenness changes. In addition, the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence product was used as a proxy of vegetation photosynthesis. We furthermore used the four-day clear-sky CSIF time series (2000–2019) with a spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° from ref. 34 (https://osf.io/8xqy6/).GPP based on NIRvThe NIRv is a newly developed satellite vegetation index combining NDVI and near-infrared band reflectivity of vegetation and is recognized as a proxy of GPP35,36. We obtained the 0.05° NIRv_GPP from 1982 to 2018 from ref. 37. This product was produced by upscaling the relationships between NIRv and observed GPP to the global scale and was judged to perform well in capturing interannual trends of GPP37.Atmospheric CO2 dataIn situ observations of daily CO2 concentration at Point Barrow were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory network. According to analyses of atmospheric transport and mixing processes, the CO2 signals detected at Barrow are suggested to be an integrated measure of carbon fluxes over both the high latitudes and the middle latitudes20.Ecosystem carbon fluxesSimulations of ecosystem carbon fluxes (GPP, TER and NEE) derived from process-based model simulations (TRENDY), empirical models based on flux tower observations (FLUXCOM) and atmospheric CO2 inversion models were jointly used for the investigation of net ecosystem carbon exchange over the northern middle and high latitudes.The TRENDY dataset is an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations that are forced by CRU–National Centers for Environmental Prediction historical climate and CO2 inputs38. The DGVMs use a bottom‐up approach to simulate terrestrial CO2 fluxes (for example, GPP, TER and NEE), and were extensively used to explore the mechanisms driving changes in carbon uptake and fluxes. The simulated GPP, TER and NEE from nine models of TRENDYv.8 (Supplementary Table 1) were used in this study. The S2 experiment, which considered the effect of both observed changes of CO2 and climate on ecosystem carbon fluxes, was selected for studying the changes of ecosystem carbon fluxes before and after the temperature shift.The FLUXCOM dataset is an upscaling product using empirical models forced by eddy-covariance data from 224 flux towers, remote sensing data and climate data8,9,10. It provides estimates of global energy and carbon fluxes (http://www.fluxcom.org/). The empirical models were trained by three machine learning algorithms, including Random Forests, Artificial Neural Networks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline, and thus provide a series of estimates of global carbon fluxes. We used the FLUXCOM carbon fluxes data driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v.5 (ERA5) climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2018.The atmospheric CO2 inversion datasets provide estimates of NEE over land from long-term atmospheric CO2 measurements using atmospheric transport models. Three atmospheric CO2 inversion products were used here: monthly net biome production with a spatial resolution of 3.75° × 2.5° from the JENA CarboScope (version s76_vo2020) for the period 1976–2019, long-term global CO2 fluxes estimated by the NICAM-based Inverse Simulation for Monitoring CO2 (NISMON-CO2) between 1990 and 2019 and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service12 (CAMS v.19r1) dataset between 1979 and 2019.Eddy-covariance CO2 observation dataThe eddy-covariance measurements of carbon fluxes from tower sites were obtained from the Integrated Carbon Observation System 2018 and the FLUXNET Network 2015. We selected 48 eddy-covariance CO2 observation sites with 10 yr continuous data (Supplementary Table 2) located north of 25° N and extracted temperature and NEE data from September to November to explore the change of ecosystem carbon exchange in autumn.NEE estimationThe monthly NEE was estimated as the difference between TER and GPP. The autumn (September to November) GPP and TER derived from TRENDY and FLUXCOM over the study region were obtained by aggregating GPP and TER from each grid cell weighted by the grid-cell area. The NEE derived from atmospheric CO2 inversions was directly used and compared against those from TRENDY and FLUXCOM. To compare the NEE before and after the temperature turning point, we divided the NEE time series into two periods: 1982–2003 and 2004–2018.Calculation of the AZCWe used observations of CO2 from Point Barrow to characterize the trends in the zero-crossing date of CO2 (downward in spring and upward in autumn). These trends roughly correspond to the beginning of net carbon uptake in spring and the beginning of net carbon release in autumn. According to the method of ref. 39, we obtained the detrended seasonal CO2 curve by separating the seasonal cycle from the long-term trend and short-term variations, fitting a function consisting of a quadratic polynomial for the long-term trend and four harmonics for the annual cycle to the daily data. The residuals from this function fit are then obtained. A 1.5-month and a 390-day full-width half-maximum-value averaging filter were used for the digital filtering of residuals to remove the short-term variations and the long-term trend, respectively. Then we got the zero-crossing dates when the detrended seasonal CO2 curve crosses the zero line from positive to negative and negative to positive, respectively.The autumn carbon release is calculated as the amount of CO2 released between the autumn zero-crossing date and the first week of September following ref. 21.Identification of turning point of temperatureWe used the piecewise linear regression method to determine the turning point of the mean autumn (September to November) temperature during 1982–2018 over the area north of 25° N. In addition, a moving t-test method was used to verify the turning-point identification. Then, the temporal trends of the mean autumn temperature before and after the turning point were calculated using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric trend test method, and the confidence intervals were determined using Sen’s slope statistics. According to the temperature trends before and after the turning point, we further identified the CAs as where the autumn temperature shows a decreasing trend after the turning point (2004) relative to that before the turning point, and WAs as regions outside the CAs. To maintain spatial integrity and continuity, we ignored the significance of the temperature trend when dividing the CAs and WAs.To verify that our analysis is not affected by the division of the time period and regions, we also identified the temperature turning point at each grid point using the piecewise linear regression method and then extracted those grid points with significant temperature change and significant NEE change (P  More

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