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    Climate-driven habitat shifts And niche overlap of overexploited trees Cordia africana Lam. and Terminalia brownii Fresen in Ethiopia

    Abstract

    Cordia africana and Terminalia brownii, indigenous Ethiopian multipurpose trees of high ecological and socioeconomic value, are increasingly threatened by overexploitation and climate change. Understanding how climatic and anthropogenic factors shape their distribution is critical for sustainable management and conservation. This study identified key environmental drivers, predicted suitable habitats under current and future climates, and assessed shifts in distribution, geographic range, and niche overlap. Future climate projections were assessed under two scenarios: the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), for two time horizons: the 2050s and 2070s. An ensemble modeling framework was applied using seven algorithms: boosted regression trees, random forest, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, maximum entropy, support vector machine, and multivariate adaptive regression splines. Each model was run with ten sub-sampled replicates. We evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC) for C. africana (0.84) and T. brownii (0.82), and the true skill statistic (TSS), which was 0.60 for both species. Predicted suitable habitat for C. africana (20.1%) was concentrated in the western, central, and southwestern regions, while T. brownii (19.9%) was mainly distributed in the northern, eastern, and southeastern lowlands. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas are projected to decline sharply, shrinking to 8.68% and 2.07% of Ethiopia’s land area, respectively, by the 2070s. Suitable habitats for both species are expected to contract, with potential refugia for C. africana shifting toward highland areas. Geographic and environmental overlap between the two species was minimal. Given their multipurpose use, increasing vulnerability, and limited niche and geographic overlap, our results show that the projected habitat contraction, the marked decline of T. brownii within its natural range, and the upslope shift of C. africana refugia require species-specific conservation actions. C. africana needs refugia protection and climate-adapted management, while T. brownii requires targeted measures to support its long-term viability. Conservation efforts should focus on safeguarding existing habitats, regulating harvesting, strengthening community-based forest management, and maintaining ecological connectivity. Both species will also require stricter control of human use under future climate change.

    Data availability

    The data supporting the findings of this study are available in the supplementary material.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsThe authors gratefully acknowledge the Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management for providing research facilities and the herbarium expert for identifying the specimen and facilitating access to the herbarium specimens used in this study.FundingThere are no funding resources for this study.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsDepartment of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaDaniel MeleseDepartment of Biology, Mizan Tepi University, Tepi, EthiopiaDaniel Melese, Muluye Asnakew & Ashebir AwokeDessie Tissue Culture Center, Dessie, EthiopiaAtnafu TesfawMekdela Amba University, Tuluawulia, EthiopiaYibeltal MeslieDepartment of Biology, University of Gondar, Gondar, EthiopiaYibelu Yitayih HailieAuthorsDaniel MeleseView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMuluye AsnakewView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAshebir AwokeView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAtnafu TesfawView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarYibeltal MeslieView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarYibelu Yitayih HailieView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsD.M. was involved in data collection, compilation, methodology, modeling, analyzing the output, and drafting the manuscript. M.A., A.A., A.T., Y.M., and Y.Y. contributed to data collection and manuscript writing. We would like to clarify that the work presented here is original research that has not previously been published and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, in whole or in part. All authors participated in revising and approved the final manuscript.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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    Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleMelese, D., Asnakew, M., Awoke, A. et al. Climate-driven habitat shifts And niche overlap of overexploited trees Cordia africana Lam. and Terminalia brownii Fresen in Ethiopia.
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    Enhancing crayfish sex identification with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks and stacked autoencoders

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    Data availability

    The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available in the Zenodo repository: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17516963. The source codes developed for the experiments are stored in a GitHub repository at https://github.com/yasinatilkan60/Crayfish-Sex-Identification.
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    Paszke, A. et al. Pytorch: an imperative style, high-performance deep learning library. Adv. Neural Inform. Process. Syst. 32 (2019).Download referencesAuthor informationAuthors and AffiliationsDepartment of Artificial Intelligence and Data Engineering, Ankara University, Ankara, 06830, TurkeyYasin Atilkan & Koray AciciDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Ankara University, Ankara, 06830, TurkeyBerk KirikDepartment of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Middle East Techical University, Ankara, 06800, TurkeyEren Tuna AcikbasInstitute of Artificial Intelligence, Ankara University, Ankara, 06560, TurkeyFatih Ekinci, Koray Acici & Mehmet Serdar GuzelFaculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, 33720, FinlandTunc AsurogluVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Tampere, 33101, FinlandTunc AsurogluDepartment of Management Information System, Ankara Medipol University, Ankara, 06050, TurkeyRecep BenzerDepartment of Computer Engineering, Ankara University, Ankara, 06830, TurkeyMehmet Serdar GuzelDepartment of Science Education, Gazi University, Ankara, 06500, TurkeySemra BenzerAuthorsYasin AtilkanView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarBerk KirikView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarEren Tuna AcikbasView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarFatih EkinciView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarKoray AciciView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTunc AsurogluView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarRecep BenzerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMehmet Serdar GuzelView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSemra BenzerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsConceptualization, R.B. and S.B.; Methodology, Y.A., K.A. and T.A.; Software, Y.A., E.T.A. and B.K.; Validation, M.S.G. and F.E.; Data Curation, R.B. and S.B.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, Y.A., E.T.A., K.A., T.A. and R.B.; Writing—Review and Editing, Y.A., K.A., T.A., R.B., M.S.G. and F.E.; Visualization, Y.A., K.A. and T.A.; Supervision, T.A., K.A., M.S.G., R.B. and S.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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    Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleAtilkan, Y., Kirik, B., Acikbas, E.T. et al. Enhancing crayfish sex identification with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks and stacked autoencoders.
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    A north-south hemispheric migratory divide in the butterfly Vanessa cardui

    AbstractReversed seasonality and distinct navigation cues in the Earth’s two hemispheres may shape the evolution of migratory behaviour in animals. Migratory divides—contact zones where populations have evolved alternative migratory strategies—are well-documented in birds and typically occur longitudinally. We hypothesise that insect migratory divides are less likely to emerge longitudinally, but may exist latitudinally, driven by hemisphere-specific sensory adaptations that lead to spatial and temporal isolation. Here, we examine this hypothesis in the cosmopolitan painted lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui), whose Southern Hemisphere dynamics remain unexplored. Investigating the genomes of 300 individuals across Africa and Europe, we identify a 9 Mb chromosomal inversion on chromosome 8, which exhibits strong haplotype structure aligned with hemispheric origin, with a few potential heterozygotes near the equator. The inversion harbours 336 genes, including several directly relevant to migration. Notably, one inversion breakpoint intersects the gene encoding the GABA-B receptor, which responds to the neuropeptide γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA), crucial for insect navigation. Our findings provide genomic evidence of a migratory divide in insects and highlight the role of inverted seasonality in the two hemispheres and genomic rearrangements as isolating barriers for highly mobile species.

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    IntroductionMovement plays a fundamental role in the evolution of life. Among various forms of movement, migration stands out as a particularly specialised and multifaceted behaviour – a choreography of finely tuned responses to fluctuating environmental conditions1. The evolutionary and molecular underpinnings of this complex behaviour remain largely unknown, as do the impacts of migration on species diversification2,3.Seasonality is crucial in triggering migratory behaviour, as animals rely on environmental signals such as changes in photoperiod, plant phenology, and temperature to initiate, maintain, and terminate migration. These cyclical signals are thought to modulate transcriptional and epigenetic pathways that regulate migratory responses4,5. Once migration begins, navigational adaptations become essential for maintaining directional movement towards favourable destinations. Celestial cues, both diurnal and nocturnal, along with Earth’s magnetic field, influence navigation. These signals are integrated into neural networks that form an internal compass, guiding movement across vast distances6,7.Seasonality patterns are generally consistent across longitude (east-west) but vary latitudinally (north-south), driving animal migratory movements predominantly in a north-south direction8. In vertebrates, migratory divides – zones where partially sympatric populations adopt distinct migratory strategies – have been widely described, particularly on philopatric species migrating north-south, where divides occur longitudinally9,10. These divides are often characterised by a clear separation between breeding and non-breeding seasons and areas, as well as by behavioural mechanisms such as learning and cultural transmission11.The emergence of migratory divides can have important implications for early speciation processes in birds and other vertebrates12,13,14,15,16 by exposing sympatric populations to different selective pressures, such as different parasites, predator and climate regimes9,12,17. In addition to selection, assortative mating can also contribute to reproductive isolation12,15,18. Efforts to unravel the genetic basis of population differentiation in contrasting migratory phenotypes have primarily identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)19,20,21,22. However, with the acquisition of contiguous genomes, large genomic alterations such as structural variants have been found to underlie the genetic architecture of migratory divides. Recent studies in fish and birds highlight the importance of chromosomal inversions23,24,25,26,27, deletions28, and long repetitive-rich regions of transposable elements (TEs)29. These major structural variants can suppress recombination over large genomic regions, facilitating the formation of islands of differentiation even in the presence of ongoing gene flow30,31. However, the conditions under which these genomic islands might expand to generalised genome-wide differentiation are not fully understood32.In insects, long-range cyclical migrations typically span multiple overlapping generations, with each generation completing only one leg of the migratory cycle, and where individuals rarely learn their routes from experience33. Each moving generation involves vast population numbers shaping complex reticular movements, formed by individuals travelling varying distances34,35,36,37. Moreover, because individuals tend to migrate and then reproduce within relatively short lifespans, breeding can take place in any suitable habitat along their migratory routes. Only a few well-known insect species, such as the monarch butterfly, seem to migrate to non-breeding destinations as part of their annual cycle. These dynamics disfavour the evolution of strict philopatry, instead resulting in broad north-south seasonal migratory movements that span extensive geographical ranges34,35,36,37. As a result, the formation of longitudinal migratory divides in insects seems unlikely, except for scenarios where major geographic barriers hinder gene flow37. Indeed, no migratory divide supported by genetic evidence has been identified in insects to date. Nevertheless, the possibility of latitudinal migratory divides with a low temporal overlap in the equator exists for species whose range extends to both hemispheres.In this study, we investigate how living in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere may influence the evolution of insect migratory strategies – a question that remains largely unexplored. Most insights into migratory patterns in animals come from species from the Northern Hemisphere, while the Southern Hemisphere has been relatively neglected and rarely compared mechanistically. Although independent migratory circuits in each hemisphere are observed in some migratory vertebrates, such as certain birds38,39,40,41 and whales42,43,44, the potential role of hemispheric barriers in driving these patterns has not yet been proposed as a unifying hypothesis. Given that butterflies and moths possess magnetoreceptor organs that may aid in navigation45,46,47, we hypothesise that reversed seasonality, a necessarily opposite response to the magnetic field, and distinct celestial cues in the two hemispheres of Earth may shape the evolution of contrasting migratory strategies. Since environmental rhythmicity displays inverted pulses between hemispheres, populations of migratory insects may adjust their biological clocks, either through genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and respond differently to hemisphere-specific seasonal cues, potentially leading to spatial and temporal isolation between populations. We use genomics to address the hypothesis of a migratory divide aligned with hemispheric effects in a highly migratory insect species. The painted lady butterfly, Vanessa cardui, provides an ideal system to examine these dynamics, since its distribution in Africa encompasses the Northern and Southern hemispheres. In both hemispheres, painted ladies are well-known seasonal migrants, often among the most common butterflies in a wide diversity of habitats8. Recent studies have characterised ecological and genetic connectivity between Europe and equatorial Africa35,36,37,48,49,50,51, yet migratory patterns of populations south of the equator remain unknown.Results And DiscussionObservational data suggest independent movement dynamics in the two hemispheresInsects migrate in multigenerational waves, resulting in a latitudinal progression of the species distribution through time. Earlier studies of V. cardui revealed two annual peaks of abundance in equatorial latitudes corresponding to the wet seasons, while only one major demographic peak is observed in the European part of the distribution48,50,52. Our analysis of population latitudinal progression throughout the year, based on 760,973 compiled observations of V. cardui in Europe and Africa (Supplementary Data S1), reveals similar patterns, with successive generations tracking locations with optimal conditions (Fig. 1A). As temperatures drop in the boreal autumn, V. cardui populations migrate from the Palaearctic to Africa, reaching as far south as the equatorial latitudes before migrating northwards again in early spring48,50,51. However, another peak of abundance is observed at equatorial latitudes from May to July (Fig. 1A). These individuals are unlikely to belong to the Northern population that has migrated to Europe during this period. We argue that they are part of a Southern African population expanding northward to avoid the austral winter and the progressive desiccation of subtropical zones (Fig. 1B). While these two populations might rarely overlap in time, they inhabit equatorial latitudes during the two different wet seasons. Overall, observational data suggest that individuals in the Southern Hemisphere constitute an independent migratory circuit.Fig. 1: Seasonality and latitudinal phenology of V. cardui.A The central heatmap plot shows monthly frequencies of V. cardui occurrences by latitudinal divisions. Maps illustrate differing photoperiod and temperature amplitudes across the distributional range, factors likely influencing the migratory syndrome and denoting substantial differences between hemispheres. Occurrence data comprise 768,332 observations of painted ladies obtained from public repositories and authors’ field expeditions. Peaks of presence linking consecutive months can be observed. Monthly frequencies through the year are relative to each latitudinal division. B Summary of hypothesised migratory movements in both hemispheres. Synchrony in northwards and southwards movements in the two populations may lead to allochrony in the equatorial zone, with independent populations spatially overlapping but temporally isolated. The Sahara Desert (yellow) and the tropical forest (green) are regions where V. cardui seldom breeds. Data used for monthly observations are available in Supplementary Data 1. Data underlying the temperature amplitude map are deposited into the OSF repository and are available at the following URL: https://osf.io/6u32k/. Data underlying the photoperiod amplitude map can be obtained online using the provided code (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17113173). Maps were made using free vector and raster map data from naturalearthdata.com. Butterfly illustrations by Blanca Martí.Full size imageA chromosomal inversion segregates populations in the two hemispheresTo investigate whether V. cardui individuals in the Southern Hemisphere form an independent migratory population from that found in the Palaearctic-African region, we examined genome-wide variation in 290 specimens collected along the entire latitudinal extent of Africa and Europe (Supplementary Data S2, Fig. 2A) using a reduced representation approach (see Methods). Genetic differentiation (fixation index, FST) was minimal across most of the genome, consistent with patterns observed in other migratory insects53,54,55,56. However, a single large and contiguous 9 Mb region in chromosome 8 stood out with a sharp increase in genetic differentiation between northern and southern individuals (Table S1, Fig. 3A). This region, spanning about 60% of chromosome 8, also showed pronounced divergence (dXY) and low diversity (π) (Table S1), suggesting the presence of a chromosomal inversion. A PCA based on this region showed two clusters, each corresponding to a different hemisphere (Fig. 2C). This signal persisted after linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruning (Fig. S3).Fig. 2: Genomics of a migratory divide in the butterfly Vanessa cardui.A Collection of sites for 300 V. cardui specimens. B Results from fineRADstructure, a Bayesian co-ancestry based analysis, using 2855 SNPs belonging to the region with the largest FST differentiation in chromosome 8 (excluding repetitive regions). Two clusters of high shared ancestry were recovered, corresponding to the northern and southern hemispheres. Some individuals (dark blue) were shown to be heterozygous for the inversion. C Principal-component analysis (PCA) in the differentiated region in chromosome 8 for 290 individuals using 976 SNPs. The two main clusters obtained correspond to the North and South hemisphere populations. Samples in grey correspond to potential heterozygotes. Collection sites information is available in the Supplementary Data 2. Data used for B and C are deposited into the OSF repository and are available at the following URL: https://osf.io/6u32k/.Full size imageFig. 3: Genomic characterization of the 9 Mb inverted region in chromosome 8 in Vanessa cardui in comparison to the rest of the genome.A Population statistics calculated across the genome (1,136,244 variants and 2,788,714 invariant sites) measuring differentiation (FST), absolute divergence (dXY) and diversity (π) between 60 V. cardui individuals from Northern and Southern populations. The plot illustrates the highly differentiated region in chromosome 8. Within this region, absolute divergence between these two populations shows the highest values at the beginning and end, whereas lower values of intra-population genetic diversity, measured as π, are observed for both populations. Window size was set to 100 bp for FST and 1 Mb for dXY and π. B Phylogenetic trees built with whole genome sequencing data for 5 V. cardui individuals representing major geographic regions of its distribution, and the sister species Vanessa kershawi. The tree on top represents the genome-wide tree with the inverted region excluded. The tree below is based on data exclusively from the inverted region. The representatives of the Northern hemisphere (in blue) form a monophyletic cluster, sister to the Southern Hemisphere representative (Namibia, in purple). C Heterozygosity values for the inverted region and for the rest of the genome, calculated as the ratio of variant sites to total genotyped sites. Heterozygosity varies significantly only within the inverted region, with lower values observed in the Southern cluster compared to the Northern cluster. Individuals located between these two main clusters exhibit higher heterozygosity levels, suggesting a heterozygous state (Fig. 3). Box plots depict the median (central line), the 25th and 75th percentiles (bounds of the box), and the whiskers represent the data points within 1.5 x the interquartile range from the box. Data points beyond the whiskers indicate outliers (large dots). Data underlying A–C are deposited into the OSF repository and are available at the following URL: https://osf.io/6u32k/.Full size imageFurther evidence of population differentiation was provided by a co-ancestry Bayesian clustering analysis (fineRADstructure57), which showed higher levels of co-ancestry within individuals in each hemisphere (Fig. 2B), a pattern not observed when analysing the rest of the genome (Fig. S4). Phylogenetic analyses also support this hemispheric differentiation: while a tree inferred from the inverted region grouped individuals into well-supported clades corresponding to their hemisphere of origin, no phylogenetic structure following latitude arose from a tree inferred from the remainder of the genome (Fig. S5). Remarkably, phylogenetic divergence across the Northern clade, spanning a vast longitudinal range across the Holarctic, is lower than the divergence observed between hemispheres (Figs. 3B, S5), underscoring the pronounced role of the inversion and hemispheric barriers in shaping population structure.To investigate in greater detail whether this region is an inversion, we analysed read mapping information (BreakDancer58) from a northern individual (reference genome assembly59) and a southern individual using previously published whole-genome data34 (sample 15D327, Namibia). This analysis identified inversion breakpoint coordinates at positions 4,402,570 and 13,379,476, which coincide with the region highlighted by the population genetic summary statistics. Additionally, several smaller inversions (<50 kb) were detected within the larger inverted region (Table S2), potentially reflecting artifacts introduced by mapping uncertainties60,61. However, two nested larger inversions of 3.2 Mb and 1.2 Mb (Table S2) suggest a complex history of structural rearrangements in this genomic region.Interestingly, the PCA of this region on chromosome 8 revealed that some individuals do not cluster within the northern or the southern genotype groups (Fig. 2C), suggesting that these individuals are heterozygous for the inversion. While northern homozygous individuals formed a cohesive group at one extreme of the PCA, some individuals collected in the south and near the equator were located between this cluster and the southern homozygous type. Heterozygosity in the inverted region of these individuals was significantly higher than for the northern and southern homozygous groups (H = 0.056, Kruskal-Wallis χ2(2) = 64.15, P-value < 0.001, df = 2), but not significantly different in the rest of the genome (Kruskal-Wallis χ2(2) = 3.66, p-value = 0.160, df = 2). Most of these individuals were sampled from regions around equatorial latitudes in East Africa (e.g., Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia), and outside peak abundance seasons. These findings suggest this area is a contact zone where gene flow can occur between alternative inversion haplotypes.Chromosomal inversions lead to reduced recombination rates within the inverted region30,62. However, if genetic exchange between inversion variants occurs within an inversion via double crossovers or gene conversion, a U-shaped divergence profile is expected, with stronger divergence near the inversion breakpoints and less pronounced divergence towards the centre25,63,64. Consistent with this prediction, we observed the highest sequence divergence (dXY) between northern and southern populations near the breakpoints (Fig. 3A), supporting marginal gene exchange between migratory ranges.Altogether, the existence of a single highly divergent genomic region between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, coupled with ecological observations, strongly indicates the presence of a migratory divide between populations of V. cardui butterflies. The lack of population differentiation outside the inversion and the U-shaped divergence within the inversion suggests that gene flow occurs extensively between populations on either side of the divide. This finding highlights the role of chromosomal inversions in maintaining sets of locally adapted alleles through recombination suppression65, acting as a key mechanism leading to local adaptation in highly mobile species66,67.Recent divergence between hemispheresWe estimated a divergence time for the inversion of 0.55–0.69 mya, although this value is likely underestimated due to gene flow between the inverted and non-inverted haplotypes. In line with a recent split or ongoing gene flow between populations, none of the 32,719 SNPs were fixed between the haplotypes. These findings, combined with the fact that the divergence between V. cardui and its sister species, V. kershawi, is estimated to be much older – around 7 mya68– suggest that the inversion arose in V. cardui after the split between these two species of Vanessa.Our analysis based on paired-end read mapping information revealed no chromosomal inversions between V. kershawi and the Northern V. cardui reference genome that match the coordinates and length of the inversion detected with population data between V. cardui of northern and southern origins. Therefore, V. kershawi shares collinearity with the Northern haplotype, supporting the Southern haplotype as the derived form. Under this scenario, the emergence of a rearranged haplotype, likely in southern Africa, may have facilitated the expansion of the ancestral haplotype across the Palaearctic and subsequent diversification in the Nearctic37, an interpretation that aligns with our phylogenomic analysis (Fig. 3B). A southern origin of the inversion is also supported by the asymmetrical distribution of haplotypes: both haplotypes as well as individuals presumably heterozygous for the inversion occur in the South, whereas only the Northern haplotype is found in the North (Fig. 2A). This pattern indicates that the inversion is still segregating in the Southern population. Furthermore, the lower heterozygosity observed in Southern individuals homozygous for the inversion, compared to their Northern counterparts (Fig. 3C), may result from a reduction in genetic diversity during the emergence of the Southern haplotype. Positive selection acting on the derived haplotype could also reinforce this pattern, and the higher heterozygosity in the Northern haplotype (apparently fixed) may be maintained through intra-population recombination.Functional significance of the inversion polymorphism: role in navigation and mating behaviourInversion polymorphisms can affect gene expression and subsequently phenotypes through various mechanisms. Primarily, breakpoints can directly affect fitness by disrupting coding and regulatory sequences or altering their positions in the genome69. Additionally, reduced recombination rates associated with chromosomal inversions facilitate faster accumulation of advantageous allele combinations and thus promote local adaptation, often leading to divergent behavioural phenotypes (e.g., refs. 70,71,72,73,74,75). Inversions have been linked to differences in migratory phenotypes in fish such as the rainbow trout76 and the Atlantic cod23,25, and birds such as the common quail26 and the willow warbler27,29,77, where an inversion and an expansion of a transposable element underlies a migratory divide in Europe.Notably, here we found that both breakpoints overlapped with protein-coding genes. The distal breakpoint intersected the last intron of the subunit 2 of the type B receptor of the γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) gene (GABAB2). GABA is a neurotransmitter involved in learning and memory that plays a key role in the neural network processing skylight information during navigation78. This network, extensively studied in migratory species like the Monarch butterfly6,7 and the desert locust79, integrates signals in the brain’s central complex to form an internal compass necessary for determining heading-direction during flight80,81,82. The neurons forming this network are GABAergic83,84,85, suggesting that alterations in GABA-B receptor patterns of expression might impact the interpretation of celestial cues. Interestingly, these neurons also receive circadian signals in fruit flies86. The proximal breakpoint was located in an uncharacterised protein from a leucine-rich repeat (LRR) family (Table S3), pointing at another intriguing candidate for future investigation. The fact that the estimated breakpoints of the inversion intersect with genes that are fully annotated and presumably intact in the Northern reference genome implies that these genes are likely disrupted in the Southern haplotype, providing additional support for the Southern haplotype being the derived form.While the precise environmental cues triggering butterfly migration are not fully understood, synergistic factors like photoperiod, temperature shifts, and host plant availability likely play crucial roles87,88,89,90. To investigate whether the inverted region is rich in genes potentially involved in migratory responses, we first conducted a Gene Ontology (GO) term analysis. The analysis, encompassing the 336 genes within the inverted region, revealed enriched functions related to morphogenesis of locomotion-related tissues, fatty acid metabolism, sensory perception and mating behaviour (Figs. S6, S7).Secondly, we investigated the association of highly differentiated SNPs within the inverted region with potentially altered gene functions. The inverted region contains 3342 highly differentiated SNPs (FST > 0.25) between southern and northern migratory ranges. Among these, 857 SNPs are located within 48 annotated protein-coding genes of varying degrees of putative impact in protein sequence and function (synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions) (Table S3). Below, we focus on functional roles of the candidate genes within the inverted region. However, we also report 10 genes containing isolated FST outlier SNPs outside the inversion in Table S4 to provide a complete overview and potential follow-up research, as some are associated with neural activity and metabolism. Among the genes containing FST outliers, several are involved in neuroendocrine regulation and behavioural control. This set comprises receptors regulating the main excitatory neuropeptides, such as the Vesicular glutamate transporter 1 and Sodium-dependent dopamine transporter. We also identified hormonal modulators of interest, like the Pituitary homeobox homologue (Ptx1), a transcription factor that activates the promoters of most pituitary hormone-coding genes91, the Juvenile hormone acid O-methyltransferase (JHAMT), a critical enzyme in the biosynthesis of juvenile hormone and repeatedly pinpointed by insect migration studies7,92,93,94 including V. cardui89,90, and the Pyrokinin-1 receptor (PK1R) of the diapause hormone, involved in pheromone biosynthesis95. The acyl-CoA desaturase Delta-9 gene, which produces the main component of the Spodoptera littoralis moth’s sex pheromone96, was also found in this gene set. In fact, several highly differentiated variants were identified in genes related to mating. Of particular interest are the dsf and siwi genes, which are encoding the dissatisfaction protein (DSF) affecting courtship behaviour, successful copulation and fertile egg-laying in Drosophila97, and the Siwi protein, which plays an essential role during spermatogenesis/oogenesis by repressing the mobility of transposable elements98. These genes are promising candidates for investigating premating mechanisms that may contribute to reproductive isolation67,99,100 and assortative mating between hemispheres.We also found highly differentiated variants in genes related to energy metabolism, such as the main triglyceride-lipase in insect fat bodies (Phospholipase A1101), and the facilitated trehalose transporter (Tret1). Trehalose is the primary sugar in insect haemolymph, and its differential expression has been linked to migratory behaviour90,102,103. Additionally, we detected highly differentiated SNPs in some ABC transporter genes and Argonaute2 (AGO2) in the 3’ and 5’ UTR, respectively, which are associated with xenobiotic resistance. The protein AGO2 is crucial for antiviral defence by targeting and degrading viral RNAs104,105, and variation on its expression could contribute to differing innate immunity signatures across hemispheres, potentially due to variation in microbial community compositions.Regulatory regions play a critical role in the evolution of novel traits, with most trait-associated loci falling in non-coding regions106. We found 1203 highly differentiated SNPs (FST > 0.25) in the vicinity of 120 genes (5 kb flanking regions), accounting for 36% of the total variants identified. However, our ability to detect genetic differentiation from RAD sequenced variants is limited, as the genes covered in our RAD sequences represent only 21% of the genes encoded within the 9 Mb inverted region. Comprehensive population analyses using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data could elucidate the full extent of the diverged gene sequences.Hemispheric migratory divides: a speciation driver in migratory species?Migratory divides have been proposed as a driving force in speciation by exposing sympatric or parapatric populations to divergent ecological conditions or by limiting genetic exchange through assortative mating or selection against hybridization12,13,14,15,16,17,18,21,107. These divides represent boundaries between adjoined populations with locally adapted migratory traits, such as migration direction or length, often leading to geographic segregation and genetic differentiation. While this phenomenon is well-documented in many vertebrate species (despite its genetic basis being known only in a handful of species), evidence for similar patterns in migratory insects has remained elusive. Indeed, no genetic differentiation has been found between differentially migrating insect populations such as those of monarch butterflies108,109 (reviewed in110), the Bogong moth111 or the fall armyworm54.However, our study provides evidence from Vanessa cardui suggesting that migratory divides may also play a significant role in insect speciation, despite the substantial differences between vertebrate and insect migration dynamics34. A key distinction in our findings is the identification of a latitudinal migratory divide spanning two hemispheres – a major departure from previously described longitudinal migratory divides that often arose from secondary contact following post-glacial colonisation from separate glacial refugia9. The biogeographic distributions of many migratory butterflies appear restricted to either hemisphere, with some species pairs showing evidence of speciation across hemispheric divides. An example is found in Danaus butterflies: D. plexippus (the monarch) is native to Central and North America, while its sister species, D. erippus, is confined to South America, engaging in extensive parallel migrations. Similarly, in Vanessa butterflies, the sister species V. carye and V. annabella complete their migratory cycles exclusively in South and North America, respectively, while V. kershawi, the painted lady sister species, migrates within Australia and New Zealand, where V. cardui is absent.While these cases may represent instances involving complete speciation, other systems may shed light on earlier stages of the speciation continuum. Several migratory butterfly species have distributional ranges spanning both hemispheres, such as Ascia monuste, Aphrissa statira, Phoebis sennae in the Americas, and Belenois aurota and Catopsilia florella in the Afrotropical region. Although the migratory cycles and phylogeographic structures of most migratory insect species are still to be fully characterised, we hypothesise that gene flow across such extensive migratory ranges might be constrained by reversed seasonality and differential navigational cues in each hemisphere, eventually leading to adaptation to hemisphere-specific biological rhythms and cues.This pattern likely extends beyond insects. For example, long-distance bird migrants (excluding shorebirds) breeding in the Northern Hemisphere and wintering in the Southern Hemisphere are proportionally a minority, and few Southern Hemisphere breeders are found to migrate north of the Equator38,39,40,41. Similarly, populations of humpback, fin whales, and several marine migratory fish species circulate almost exclusively within the Northern or Southern hemisphere, and rarely interact42,43,44.These eco-evolutionary patterns suggest that hemispheric divides could significantly influence the speciation of widespread migratory insect species. The existence of hemispheric divides and their segregating genetic diversity should be investigated across animal migratory lineages as a potentially overlooked pattern for speciation.MethodsObservational and field dataObservational occurrences of V. cardui used to infer phenological patterns of presence and absence by latitude were retrieved from (1) the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF112, https://www.gbif.org/es/), (2) the African butterfly and moth mapping project (LepiMAP113, http://vmus.adu.org.za/), both accessed the 23rd of May 2023, and (3) the authors’ own field expeditions from 2006 to 2023 (e.g. ref. 50), including 802 observations from Africa. We excluded the downloaded observations recorded on the 1st of January, as this date appears to be disproportionately used and is likely a placeholder for unknown collection dates within a given year. We retrieved 69,134 observations in total throughout Europe and Africa, dating from 1800 to 2023 (Supplementary Data S1). Monthly data were compiled, and relative abundances for established latitudinal divisions were plotted using ggplot2114 R package (Fig. 1).We calculated the maximum and minimum yearly photoperiod relative to each latitude using the R packages geosphere115 and terra116. Photoperiod amplitude was estimated as the subtraction of the maximum and minimum yearly day length. The temperature range was estimated as the subtraction of the lowest monthly average temperature from the highest monthly average temperature within each year, where monthly temperature averages were computed for a series of 20 years (2001–2021) using data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU v4.06) database117. Analyses were conducted using R v4.1.2, and R code is provided at the GitHub repository https://github.com/GTlabIBB/MigratoryDivide118. Both photoperiod and temperature amplitudes were projected to a map using QGIS v3.34.4119 to generate Fig. 1A.SamplingPainted ladies (V. cardui) are among the world’s most widespread butterfly species. We gathered 300 individuals across 38 countries in Europe and Africa (Fig. 1; Supplementary Data S2), as well as five individuals of V. kershawi, its sister species, which inhabits Australia and New Zealand (Supplementary Data S2). These specimens are deposited in the collections of the Botanical Institute of Barcelona (IBB, CSIC, Spain), the Institute of Evolutionary Biology (IBE, CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain), and the Museum of Comparative Zoology (Harvard University, USA).Sequencing and preprocessing of ddRAD dataFor population genetic analysis, we prepared ddRAD genomic libraries for the 304 collected samples (Supplementary Data S2) following the protocol of Peterson et al.120. We used EcoRI and BfaI restriction enzymes and size selection of 300 bp using a PippinPrep instrument and 2% agarose cassettes (Sage Science, Beverly, MA, USA). Libraries were sequenced in 150 bp paired-end reads on Illumina HiSeq 2500 at the Harvard University Bauer Core Facility. Sequencing reads are deposited in the ENA (European Nucleotide Archive) database under project accession no. PRJEB80315. A total of 287,916,481 reads were generated, which were demultiplexed and assembled using ipyrad v0.9.81121 by mapping on the Vanessa cardui chromosome-level reference genome59 (GCA_905220365.1). Adapters were filtered using the cutadapt software integrated into the filter_adapters parameter of ipyrad. The clustering threshold was set to 0.85, resulting in a total of 188,408 loci across all 300 individuals. We used ipyrad default filtering parameters except for the minimum number of samples per locus, which was set to 100, i.e., one third of the samples (min_samples_locus parameter). After applying the filters, the number of assembled loci was 10,672. For downstream analysis, we subsequently filtered by variant missing data in VCFtools v0.1.16122, keeping SNPs that were present in at least 80% of the individuals (–max-missing parameter) and by minimum allele count, keeping alleles present in at least 2 individuals (–mac parameter). Last, in order to keep high-quality samples, we filtered out 3 individuals for which less than 40% of the total loci were recovered using the prop_typed_ind function in adegenet v2.1.5R package123, and removed 7 individuals that shared particularly high levels of coancestry according to fineRADstructure57, and thus were potentially related. These samples were indeed collected as larvae in the same locality, further reinforcing this inference. These filters resulted in a dataset, named dataset 1, comprising 290 samples and 32,719 SNPs. For local analysis of the inverted region on chromosome 8, we selected 976 SNPs located within this region using BCFtools v1.20124.We constructed a second dataset for fineRADstructure analysis, dataset 2, using a reduced set of high quality samples. We selected the first 30 samples from each hemisphere with the lowest levels of missing data. We ran the ipyrad reference-aligned pipeline with default filtering parameters, but the minimum number of samples per locus was set to 30 (i.e., half of the dataset). Additionally, we filtered for missing data with VCFtools, retaining SNPs that were present in at least 80% of the individuals (–max-missing parameter). Initially, we recovered 109,614 loci and 546,458 SNPs across 60 individuals; after filtering, the dataset was reduced to 13,571 loci and 169,590 SNPs. For local analysis on chromosome 8, we selected 2855 SNPs.A third dataset, named dataset 3, was generated for phylogenetic inference using the 60 samples from dataset 2, along with five additional samples from the sister species Vanessa kershawi as outgroup. The ipyrad assembly parameters and filtering steps were identical to those used for dataset 2. We recovered 117,546 loci across 65 samples, which were reduced to 12,973 loci and 569,090 SNPs after filtering steps. Summary statistics resulting from all ipyrad assembly steps for dataset 1, 2 and 3 are detailed in Supplementary Data S3.Genome-wide genetic differentiation analysisTo assess population structure, we first performed a PCA analysis using the adegenet v2.1.5 R package123 on all samples (dataset 1, 290 samples, Supplementary Data S3) across three genomic partitions: (i) the whole genome (Fig. S1), (ii) the inverted region on chromosome 8 (Fig. 2B), and (iii) the whole genome excluding the inverted region (Fig. S2). Additional PCAs were performed in LD-pruned versions of these datasets to assess for potential linkage effects, using SNP pairwise comparisons in PLINK with r2 < 0.2 and r2 < 0.05 (Fig. S3).We then used fineRADstructure to infer the number of genetic clusters and recent shared ancestry of individuals on each side of the migratory divide in dataset 2, both in the entire genome (60 samples, 169,590 SNPs, Fig. S1) and in the inverted region on chromosome 8 (Fig. 2A). In both analyses, sex chromosomes were excluded. Additionally, repetitive regions were filtered out using the annotation from Shipilina et al.125 with BEDTools v2.29.2126. No LD filtering was applied for fineRADstructure analyses, as the method specifically uses haplotype linkage information from RAD data to infer recent ancestry57.We next explored patterns of genetic differentiation by calculating window-based estimates of FST, π and dXY along the genome for dataset 2. To account for the fragmented coverage of RAD loci we used Pixy v1.2.5.beta1127, which handles missing data by excluding regions lacking mapped reads, thus excluding regions without RAD loci from genome-wide calculations. In order to accommodate this strategy, we generated an AllSites VCF file from the dataset 2 alignments obtained from ipyrad. This variant calling step was implemented in SAMtools mpileup followed by BCFTools call. Additionally, we filtered the resulting file for variant missing data in VCFtools, retaining SNPs present in at least 80% of the individuals (–max-missing parameter). The resulting AllSites VCF contained 1,136,244 variant sites and 2,788,714 invariant sites. Window size was set to 100 bp for FST to enable dot plot visualisation, while 1 Mb was used for π and dXY for curve visualisation, for which no smoothing algorithm was used. Results were plotted using ggplot2.Sequencing and preprocessing of WGS dataShort read data were used for phylogenetic inference and detection of inversion breakpoints. We used five V. cardui samples from a previous study34, collected in Ethiopia (14U392; 9°23′54.096′′ N, 38°49′25.323′′ E;), Namibia (15D327; 17°52′16.086′′ N, 19°24′22.611′′ E), Nepal (07F575; 28°25′0.635′′ N, 83°49′2.114′′ E), California, USA (15A205; 38°34′30.414′′ N, 121°34′38.117′′ E), and Spain (15A710; 40°15′29.16′′ N, 1°36′20.879′′ E). A Vanessa kershawi specimen, from Australia (AAM97U335; 34°19′30.63′′ S, 117°52′36.735′′ E), was sequenced for this study. A 350 bp insert paired-end library was prepared following the Illumina TruSeq DNA PCR-Free protocol. The library was sequenced at the Swedish National Genomics Infrastructure (NGI) facilities at 150 bp from both ends using a NovaSeq 6000 S4 sequencing platform, producing 140,660,532 reads (Table S5). Sequences are available in the ENA (European Nucleotide Archive) database under project accession no. PRJEB80315.Reads were mapped against the reference V. cardui genome59 (GCA_905220365.1) with BWA v0.7.12128, except for the V. kershawi specimen, where reads were mapped using Stampy v1.0.32129 and using an estimated substitution rate of 0.0406 to account for ~7my of divergence with V. cardui68. We obtained an average of 194 million mapped reads per sample (Table S5), which were sorted using SAMtools. The consensus sequences were obtained using SAMtools mpileup followed by BCFTools Call. The final fasta files were obtained with vcfutils vcf2fq122 command using a minimum coverage of 6x. The arthropod BUSCO v3.0.2130 analysis of completeness performed in the resulting assemblies using gvolante131 yielded an average of 98.63% completeness.Identification of inversion breakpointsTo identify the inversion breakpoints, we used paired-end read mapping information from the southern V. cardui individual (Namibia) reads mapped to the northern V. cardui reference genome59 (GCA_905220365.1). The resulting alignment had a mean mapping coverage of 32.34x and mapping quality of 71.3 (Table S5), as calculated with Qualimap v2.2.1132. Structural variant detection was performed using BreakDancerMax, a pipeline to identify breakpoints implemented in the software BreakDancer58. BreakDancer identifies anomalous read pairs in order to predict structural variants, and estimates a confidence score for each variant based on a Poisson model that takes into consideration the number of supporting anomalous read-pairs, the size of the anchoring regions, and the coverage of the genome58. With the highest probability score, BreakDancer identified 14 paired-end reads with abnormally large insert sizes and inverted orientation, pinpointing the inversion breakpoints at coordinates 4,402,570 and 13,379,476 (Table S2). We used the established coordinates to extract the inverted region for all analyses.Additionally, to investigate the synteny between V. cardui and its sister species, Vanessa kershawi on chromosome 8, we repeated the same procedure using WGS data from the sequenced V. kershawi specimen. The alignment had a mean coverage of 40.24x and a mean mapping quality of 43.61 (Table S5). No chromosomal inversions corresponding to the identified breakpoints with population data in V. cardui (positions 4,402,570–13,379,476) were detected in V. kershawi using read mapping information.Divergence time estimation of the inverted regionWe calculated the divergence time between the inverted and non-inverted haplotypes using the estimated absolute divergence (dXY) from Pixy. Absolute divergence was not consistent across the inversion length. Despite reduced crossover frequency, regions within large inversions can still pair in heterozygotes, allowing for gene conversion63,64. Stronger divergence near the inversion breakpoints and less pronounced divergence towards their centres are expected, showing a U-shaped profile25,26. Therefore, we focused on the first and last Mb of the inversion where recombination is lower, and which therefore provide the most reliable estimate of accumulated divergence since the origin of the inversion. We averaged the values obtained from the first and last Mb. Then, following the approach of Sánchez-Doñoso et al.26, we converted this divergence estimate to an estimate of divergence time using the equation133:$$T=frac{{d}_{{XY}}}{2cdot mu cdot g}$$
    (1)
    Where T is the divergence time in years, dXY is the absolute divergence, μ is the mutation rate in mutations per site per generation, and g is the number of generations per year. We used the estimated mutation rate for Heliconius melpomene134 (2.9 × 10−9), and considered a range of 7 to 10 generations per year50. Note that the divergence equation assumes a molecular clock, which implies neutral sequence divergence and a constant mutation rate. However, these regions are likely not neutral and might have complex demographic histories, so the time of divergence could be underestimated. Thus, it should be interpreted as an approximate indicator of the inversion’s origin and the onset of independent evolutionary trajectories between the arrangements.Heterozygosity estimatesHeterozygosity was estimated both for the inverted region on chromosome 8 and along the genome (excluding the inverted region) in dataset 1. We calculated heterozygosity as the number of variant sites over the total number of genotyped sites for each sample. We determined the North group as the specimens clustered in the negative values of PC1, the South group as the specimens clustered at the other side of the PC1 with values > 6, and the specimens scattered between these two thresholds were considered as potential heterozygotes. The obtained heterozygosity estimates did not follow a normal Gaussian distribution (Shapiro-Wilk normality test; inverted region: W = 0.98641, p-value = 0.008075 and excluding inverted region: W = 0.98409, p-value = 0.002754). Therefore, we statistically searched for differences in heterozygosity between North, South, and potential heterozygous groups within each region using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance.Phylogenetic analysesWe investigated the phylogenetic history of the inverted region using whole-genome data from 5 specimens of Vanessa cardui across its worldwide distribution and one Vanessa kershawi specimen as an outgroup. The V. cardui and V. kershawi reference-based assemblies were aligned using MUSCLE135, implemented in Geneious Prime 2023.0.4136 (https://www.geneious.com). Gblocks v0.91b137 was then applied on the multiple sequence alignment to remove potentially ambiguously aligned regions using default parameters, generating concatenated alignments of 4,319,737 bp for the inverted region and 330,406,868 bp for the rest of the genome. Phylogenetic relationships were then inferred through a maximum likelihood (ML) analysis using RAxML-NG v1.1.0138, with a GTR + I model of nucleotide evolution. Nodal support was evaluated by 200 bootstrap iterations using the transfer bootstrap expectation (TBE).Phylogenetic relationships were also inferred for RAD data using dataset 3. A total of 420 RAD loci alignments were obtained for the inverted region and 12,550 for the rest of the genome using the ipyrad assembly pipeline. We used Gblocks with default parameters in each alignment to discard highly ambiguously aligned regions. Sequences with more than 90% of unmapped or uncalled bases (“Ns”) were removed from the alignments using cutadapt v5.0139 –max-n. These two steps resulted in a total of 397 and 11,935 filtered RAD loci alignments for the inverted region and for the rest of the genome, which were concatenated into 88,704 bp and 2,677,821 bp alignments, respectively. We inferred phylogenetic trees with IQ-TREE v2.0140, using ModelFinder to select the best-fit evolutionary model for each alignment based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The resulting phylogenetic trees were plotted using the ggtree141 R package.Functional analysisEnrichment of functional categories in the genes located within the inverted region was analysed using the Bioconductor package topGO v2.44.0142. The enrichment test was performed with Fisher’s exact test using the default algorithm (“weight01”), which accounts for the hierarchical structure of the GO-terms. The annotated gene set from Shipilina et al.125 was used as the functional database. We adjusted the p-values of the resulting tests using the Benjamini-Hochberg method143 to correct for multiple testing.We explored whether SNPs showing the highest differentiation between southern and northern migratory ranges were located within protein-coding genes. We selected SNPs with FST > 0.25 (93.8th percentile) in dataset 2 and predicted effect strength and position in relation to known genes using SnpEff v5.2c144. We created the custom gene database in SnpEff based on the annotation version from Lohse et al.59. Information regarding the known biological functions of these proteins and functional effects is presented in Table S3 (inside the inversion) and Table S4 (outside the inversion).Reporting summaryFurther information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article.

    Data availability

    Demultiplexed and adapter-trimmed RAD-sequencing reads, and whole genome sequencing reads generated in this study have been deposited in the European Nucleotide Archive under project accession number PRJEB80315. All accession numbers for samples used in this study are listed in Supplementary Data 2, including newly generated sequences and those from García-Berro et al.34 and Suchan et al.37 Data underlying Figs. 1–3 are available in Supplementary Data 1 and in the OSF repository at the following URL: https://osf.io/6u32k/ (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/6U32K).
    Code availability

    Scripts used to process the data are available at: https://github.com/GTlabIBB/MigratoryDivide (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17113173).
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe are grateful to our colleagues who contributed samples used in this study, including B. Acosta, A. Andersen, D. Benyamini, S. Cuvelier, L. Dapporto, V. Dincă, R. Eastwood, M. Espeland, M. Gascoigne-Pees, E. Hailu, A. Heath, J. Hernández-Roldán, J.C. Hinojosa, M. López-Munguira, V. Lukhtanov, E. Karolinskiy, M. Khaldi, R. Khellaf, D. Lohman, A. Marsiñach, A.A. Mignault, Y. Monasterio, S. Montagud, A. Morton, F. Páramo, L. Pokorny, I. Ribera, S. Scalercio, N. Shapoval and R. Vodă. This work was funded by the grants PID2020-117739GA-I00 and PID2023-152239NB-I00 (MCIN / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033), by the National Geographic Society (grant WW1-300R-18), by the grant LINKA20399 from the CSIC iLink program, and by grant 2021-SGR-01334 (Departament de Recerca i Universitats, Generalitat de Catalunya) to G.T. A.G.B is supported by the grant FPU-2019-01593. R.V. is supported by grant PID2022-139689NB-I00 (MICIU/ AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and ERDF, EU) and by grant 2021-SGR-00420 (Departament de Recerca i Universitats, Generalitat de Catalunya). G.T. and N.E.P. also acknowledge the Putnam Expeditionary Fund from the Museum of Comparative Zoology (MCZ, Harvard University). We thank Roger López-Mañas for support in environmental data visualisation, and Thomas Decroly and Dorcas Orengo for valuable discussion.Author informationAuthor notesThese authors contributed equally: Aurora García-Berro, Daria Shipilina.Authors and AffiliationsInstitut Botànic de Barcelona (IBB), CSIC-CMCNB, Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainAurora García-Berro, Aleix Palahí & Gerard TalaveraDepartament de Genètica, Microbiologia i Estadística, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainAurora García-BerroEvolutionary Biology Program, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenDaria Shipilina, Niclas Backström & Aleix PalahíInstitute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, PolandTomasz SuchanAfrican Butterfly Research Institute (ABRI), Nairobi, KenyaSteve C. CollinsMpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, KenyaDino J. MartinsTurkana Basin Institute, Stony Brook University NY, New York, NY, USADino J. MartinsMuseum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USANaomi E. PierceInstitut de Biologia Evolutiva (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainRoger VilaAuthorsAurora García-BerroView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarDaria ShipilinaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarNiclas BackströmView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTomasz SuchanView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAleix PalahíView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSteve C. CollinsView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarDino J. MartinsView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarNaomi E. PierceView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarRoger VilaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarGerard TalaveraView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsConceptualization: A.G-B., D.S., N.B., N.E.P., R.V., G.T; Field Sampling: A.G-B., S.C.C., D.J.M., R.V., G.T; Data Collection: G.T.; Data analysis: A.G-B., D.S., N.B., T.S., A.P., G.T.; Writing – original draft: A.G-B., G.T.; Writing – review and editing: A.G-B., D.S., N.B., T.S., A.P., S.C.C., D.J.M., N.E.P., R.V., G.T. Funding: N.E.P., R.V., G.T.Corresponding authorsCorrespondence to
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    Growth, immunity, and antioxidant activity responses of phytobiotics and probiotics incorporated into Oreochromis niloticus diets under stressors of unchanged water

    AbstractThe purpose of this study was to examine the impacts of incorporating commercial mixture phytobiotic/probiotics as feed additives in terms of performance, survival rate proximate composition, hematological parameters, immunological response and antioxidant enzymes activity of Oreochromis niloticus reared under un-exchanged water system. Nile tilapia with an average beginning weight ranged from 48.49 to 52.50 g and were distributed in concrete ponds (1 m × 1 m × 1 m; L × W × H) at 20 fish / pond. Four treatments were performed as follows: control group (CG) fish fed a basal feed without water exchange and three groups were reared under zero water exchange with adding three different doses of commercial phytobiotic /probiotics on the basal feed (Garlex®, Superimmune®, and Gallipro 200®): Group 1: (200 mg, 500 mg, and 200 mg)/kg diet, Group 2: (400 mg, 1000 mg, and 400 mg)/ kg diet and Group 3: (600 mg, 1500 mg, and 600 mg)/ kg diet. This trial lasted for ninety days. Groups 1 and 2 had the best growth indices and survival rates, and there was not a significant (P ≤ 0.05) distinction between them. Fish fed Groups 1 and 2 showed the greatest improvement in proximate body composition, immunological responses, and antioxidant enzyme activity, including lysozyme, superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and glutathione (GSH). This study has detected that feed additives of commercial mixture of 200 mg/kg Garlex®, 400 mg/kg Super Immune®, and 200 mg/kg GallPro-200® led to improved growth and physiological status of O. niloticus under un-exchanged water ponds.

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    The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsAuthors would like to thank all staff members of Aquaculture Department, Faculty of Aquaculture and Marine fisheries, Arish University, Egypt for supporting this research. Also, authors would like to acknowledge all members and staff of Water Resources Research Station, National institute of Oceanography and Fisheries NIOF in Fayoum, Egypt for their help and support in completing this work.FundingOpen access funding provided by The Science, Technology & Innovation Funding Authority (STDF) in cooperation with The Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB).Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsDepartment of Aquaculture and Biotechnology, Faculty of Aquaculture and Marine Fisheries, Arish University, Arish, EgyptMohamed F. Abdel-AzizZoology Department, Faculty of Science, Arish University, Arish, EgyptRabab M. AlkaradaweNational Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (NIOF), PO Box 11516, Cairo, EgyptHamed H. E. Saleh, Mohamed A. Elokaby & Abdel-Moneim M. YonesAnimal Nutrition and Clinical Nutrition Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Benha University, Toukh, 13736, EgyptFatma Ragab Abouel AzmBiology Department, College of Science, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72341, Saudi ArabiaDalia S. HamzaDepartment of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Benha University, Benha, 13518, EgyptDalia S. HamzaDepartment of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Qena University, Qena, 83523, EgyptNaglaa R. A. KasemAuthorsMohamed F. Abdel-AzizView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarRabab M. AlkaradaweView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarHamed H. E. SalehView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarFatma Ragab Abouel AzmView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMohamed A. ElokabyView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAbdel-Moneim M. YonesView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarDalia S. HamzaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarNaglaa R. A. KasemView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsMohamed F. Abdel-Aziz, Rabab M. Alkaradawe, Hamed H. E. Saleh, Fatma Ragab Abouel Azm, Mohamed A. Elokaby, Abdel-Moneim M. Yones, Dalia S. Hamza and Naglaa R.A. Kasem : Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Supervision, Investigation, Resources, Writing – review, editing. Mohamed F. Abdel-Aziz: Writing – original draft.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
    Mohamed F. Abdel-Aziz.Ethics declarations

    Competing interests
    The authors declare no competing interests.

    Ethics statement
    All research protocols of this work were ethically approved by the National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries’ (NIOF, Egypt) Committee for Ethical Care and Use of Animals/Aquatic Animals (NIOF-IACUC) with code number (NIOF-AQ4-F-24-R-022). The authors confirm that all methods were performed in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations and that the study is reported in accordance with the ARRIVE guidelines.

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    Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleAbdel-Aziz, M.F., Alkaradawe, R.M., Saleh, H.H.E. et al. Growth, immunity, and antioxidant activity responses of phytobiotics and probiotics incorporated into Oreochromis niloticus diets under stressors of unchanged water.
    Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30248-2Download citationReceived: 13 August 2025Accepted: 24 November 2025Published: 29 December 2025DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-30248-2Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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    KeywordsGrowth performanceNile tilapiaHematologyImmunologicalAntioxidant enzymePhytobiotic/probiotics More

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    Assessing cetacean encounter risk in offshore racing

    AbstractLarge cetaceans face several anthropogenic threats. Among these, collisions are a major cause of anthropogenic mortality. Assessing and limiting their impact on populations is essential, as these species play an essential ecological role. All types of vessels, including offshore racing vessels, can collide with cetaceans. When a collision occurs between an offshore racing vessel and a large cetacean, the consequences are severe for both the whale, which is often injured or even killed and the vessel, which can suffer severe damage and be forced to withdraw from the race. Our study aimed to develop an encounter model that takes the characteristics of both cetaceans and racing vessels into account to estimate the number of encounters along vessel routes. The model was applied to three different routes commonly used in offshore racing: the first between Newport, USA and Skagen, Denmark; the second between Dover, England and the Gibraltar Strait; and the third between the Gibraltar Strait and Genoa, Italy. The number of encounters was estimated to be 1.7 for Route 1, 4.1 for Route 2 and 2.6 for Route 3. The model was also used to estimate the impact of routing vessels away from any exclusion zones that may be established in areas of high cetacean abundance. This routing could significantly reduce the number of encounters and offer potential solutions to reduce collisions between cetaceans and all types of vessels. The issue of collisions is becoming increasingly important and requires the development of methods to reduce the number of collisions worldwide.

    Data availability

    Vessel tracks were simulated using the qtVlm navigation software (©Meltemus 2017 – 2024, https://www.meltemus.com/), which is an open-access software, but the polars used were provided by Bañulsdesign and are confidential. Cetacean densities in the western Atlantic Ocean are publicly available at https://seamap.env.duke.edu/models/Duke/EC/. Cetacean densities near Iceland are not publicly available and should be requested from the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO). Cetacean densities in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean are not publicly available and should be requested from the Direction Générale de l’Armement Techniques Navales. The corresponding author can provide contact details.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe are grateful to the many observers who participated in the surveys and collected all the data used to model cetacean densities, as well as to ship captains, crews, and pilots. We thank the Direction Générale de l’Armement Techniques Navales for providing cetacean densities in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We thank the Duke Marine Geospatial Ecology Laboratory for providing cetacean densities in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean through their web portal (https://seamap.env.duke.edu/models/Duke/EC/). We thank the North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO) for providing cetacean densities estimated from the NASS survey.FundingThe study and open access were funded by Share The Ocean.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsShare The Ocean, Larmor-Baden, 56870, FranceAuriane Virgili & Renaud BañulsBañulsdesign, Larmor-Baden, 56870, FranceSébastien Fournier, Malo Pocheau & Renaud BañulsCentre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l’Ecole Polytechnique, UMR 7641 CNRS, Inria, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, 91128, FranceOlivier Le MaîtreObservatoire Pelagis, UAR 3462 CNRS, La Rochelle Université, La Rochelle, 17000, FranceVincent RidouxCentre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé – La Rochelle, UMR 7372 CNRS – La Rochelle Université, Villiers-en-Bois, 79350, FranceVincent RidouxNantes Université, Ecole nationale supérieure d’architecture de Nantes, Nantes, 44000, FranceRenaud BañulsAuthorsAuriane VirgiliView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSébastien FournierView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarOlivier Le MaîtreView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMalo PocheauView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarVincent RidouxView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarRenaud BañulsView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsA.V. wrote the main manuscript. A.V., S.F. and M.P. carried out the analyses. V.R., O.L.M. and R.B. contributed their expertise to the study, and R.B. supervised it. All authors reviewed the manuscript.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
    Auriane Virgili.Ethics declarations

    Competing interests
    The authors declare no competing interests.

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    Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
    Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleVirgili, A., Fournier, S., Le Maître, O. et al. Assessing cetacean encounter risk in offshore racing.
    Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33896-6Download citationReceived: 09 September 2025Accepted: 23 December 2025Published: 29 December 2025DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33896-6Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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    KeywordsCetaceansCollisions/vessel strikesOffshore racingRisk assessment More

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    Predicting sugar beet leaf area index: evaluating performance of double sigmoid functions under different irrigation and plant density scenarios

    AbstractThe leaf area index (LAI) dynamics in sugar beet follow a double sigmoidal curve, modeled as the subtraction of two sigmoid functions. In this study, we examined the accuracy of 15 different sigmoid functions in describing the sugar beet LAI variation based on growing degree days (GDD) and days after planting (DAP) in different irrigation treatments and crop densities under direct and transplant cultivation. The results showed that the Logistic-Richards (LR) and Hill-Hill functions (HH) effectively modeled the measured LAI data over the GDD and DAP-based growing period for both direct sowing and transplant cultivation. The LR (NRMSE = 0.04, d = 0.99, MRE = -0.006) and HH (NRMSE = 0.05, d = 0.99, MRE = -0.01) achieved the best performance for direct sowing calibration based on GDD. In contrast, the Von Bertalanffy, Weibull, and Hill functions were not suitable for describing sugar beet LAI dynamics. Adjusting function coefficients to account for environmental factors such as seasonal applied water, rainfall, and planting density generally led to decreased predictive accuracy, under direct and transplant cultivation. Therefore, LR functions can be valuable for modelling sugar beet LAI variation under various irrigation treatments and crop densities throughout the growing season.

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    18 September 2023

    IntroductionPlant growth is very important in order to evaluate and manage irrigation and agricultural operations, with the aim of increasing production. Hence, plant indices, such as the leaf area index (LAI), are crucial to determining the photosynthetic surface area of a plant, its water consumption, and its yield1. LAI measures the total one-sided leaf area per unit ground area, reflecting canopy density2. Due to the difficulty of measuring LAI directly on a large scale3, different sigmoid functions can be used to estimate LAI.A double sigmoid function generally has two sigmoidal-shaped curves, providing a better fit for modeling certain biological and ecological processes. Nonlinear regression models best describe growth curves, with parameters estimated by minimizing the residual sum of squares4. Therefore, LAI can be modeled as a double sigmoid curve, formed by the subtraction (or interaction) of two underlying sigmoid functions. Several singular sigmoid functions have one inflection point and have been used to model growth dynamics, including the Logistic5, Gompertz6, Beta7, Richards8, Von Bertalanffy9, Weibull10, and Hill11. Double sigmoid functions exhibit two inflection points where the growth rate transitions from an increasing to a decreasing trend12. By fitting growth data to sigmoid functions, researchers can better understand and predict plant performance under varying environmental and management conditions.Despite their widespread application in modeling crop growth, sigmoid functions have several limitations that need to be acknowledged. Firstly, these models assume smooth and predictable growth patterns with clear inflection points. However, actual crop development often shows irregularities due to environmental stress, nutrient variability, or pest incidence, leading to inaccurate predictions. Secondly, parameter estimation in nonlinear regression is highly sensitive to initial values, making the calibration process computationally challenging and prone to convergence issues. Thirdly, double sigmoid models, while more flexible, involve additional parameters that increase the risk of overfitting to calibration data, reducing model robustness when applied to independent datasets or under stress conditions. Finally, these models primarily represent time-dependent growth without directly accounting for dynamic environmental drivers such as humidity, wind speed, and soil water status13,14,15,16. Addressing these limitations may require hybrid modeling strategies or integrating additional meteorological and soil parameters into future predictive.A study was conducted on five maize cultivars to evaluate the performance of different nonlinear functions (Richards, Logistic, Weibull, and Gompertz) in fitting leaf growth data16. The results indicate that the Richards, Logistic, and Gompertz functions demonstrate superior performance compared to Weibull in predicting leaf growth in maize. In another study17, reported that the growth behavior of a lettuce canopy was described using three nonlinear functions: Gompertz, Logistic, and grey Verhulst18. The functions were applied to top projected canopy area (TPCA), top projected canopy perimeter (TPCP), and plant height (PH). The grey Verhulst model showed better fitting for TPCA and TPCP growth, while the Logistic model fit well the PH changes. Also19, demonstrated that the Logistic model was more suitable for describing height growth of maize than the Gompertz function, as it achieved a coefficient of determination exceeding 99%. In a recent study by20, it was demonstrated that the XGBoost function and Light GBM function outperformed the Gompertz function and Logistic function in predicting maize plant growth. The accuracy of 49 function compositions of the double sigmoid functions in describing rapeseed dry matter based on days after planting (DAP) and growing degree days (GDD) was examined12. The results indicated that the Beta-Richards and Richards-Gompertz functions accurately represented the measured dry matter during the growing season based on DAP and GDD, respectively.Sugar beet is primarily grown in arid and semi-arid regions as an irrigated crop. Adequate water supply and management are crucial for the successful production of sugar beet and white sugar due to the crop’s long growing season21. The water requirement for sugar beet cultivation is influenced by various factors such as climatic conditions, irrigation practices, growing season, crop density, genotype, and the use of nitrate fertilizer22. A water-saving technique commonly used in arid regions is deficit irrigation23, which involves applying less water than the full crop requirement for evapotranspiration24. Optimizing crop density is a key factor in enhancing both the quantity and quality of sugar beets. Crop density directly impacts root size, sugar content, yield, and mineral composition in the roots25.Based on our knowledge, few studies were conducted on determining the LAI of sugar beet. Given the significance of sugar beet in sugar production, this study was aimed to (1) estimate the LAI of sugar beet using different double sigmoid functions (Logistic-Logistic, Gompertz-Gompertz, Logistic-Hill, Weibull-Logistic, and …) under varying irrigation treatments and crop densities under direct sowing and transplant cultivations, (2) assess the LAI of sugar beet based on days after planting (DAP) and growing degree days (GDD), and (3) select the best double sigmoid functions. The findings of this study can help in estimating the LAI of sugar beet throughout its growth cycle.Materials and methodsField experimentThe impact of plant density, planting method and irrigation regime on sugar beet yield over two years (2017 and 2018) at the Research Station, School of Agricultural, Shiraz University, Iran, situated 16 km north of Shiraz was studied by26,27. In this study LAI data, depth of irrigation water, and rainfall amount were obtained from26,27. The total amount of rainfall during growing period was 22.5 mm in 2017 occurred in the first week and 55 mm in 2018 occurred in first and second week of planting period27.The experiment used a split-split plot experimental design arranged in a complete randomized block framework with three replications. The main plots were assigned to three irrigation levels: full irrigation (100%, I100), 75% of full irrigation (I75), and 50% of full irrigation (I50). Two planting methods — direct sowing (D) and transplant cultivation (T)— were used in the subplots. The sub-subplots consisted of four plant density treatments of 180,000 plants ha− 1 (P180), 135,000 plants ha− 1 (P135), 90,000 plants ha− 1 (P90), and 45,000 plants ha− 1 (P45). Data from 2017 were employed to calibrate the double sigmoid function, and its predictive performance was validated using data from 2018. For more detailed information, please refer to26,27.Mathematical functionsAmong the various mathematical models used to describe plant growth curves, sigmoid functions (such as the Logistic, Gompertz and Richards functions and …) are particularly effective. They accurately capture the three distinct phases of biological growth: the lag phase (characterized by slow initial development), the log phase (marked by rapid growth), and the stationary phase (where growth is slow and reaches plateau). The various sigmoid equations used in this research are as follows:$$:text{y}={text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+frac{{text{y}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}}{1+text{e}text{x}text{p}(-text{a}text{t}+text{b})}:{rm Logistic}$$
    (1)
    $$:text{y}={text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+left({text{y}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}right)text{e}text{x}text{p}(-text{e}text{x}text{p}left(-text{a}text{t}+text{b}right)):::{rm Gompertz}$$
    (2)
    $$:y={y}_{min}+frac{{y}_{max}-{y}_{min}}{[1+vexp{(-at+b)]}^{raisebox{1ex}{$1$}!left/:!raisebox{-1ex}{$v$}right.}}:::{rm Richards}$$
    (3)
    $$:text{y}={text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+({text{y}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}})(1-text{e}text{x}text{p}(-text{a}{text{t}}^{text{b}}):::{rm Weibull}$$
    (4)
    $$:text{y}={text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+left({text{y}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}right)left(left(1+frac{text{a}-text{t}}{text{a}-text{b}}right){left(frac{text{t}}{text{a}}right)}^{frac{text{a}}{text{a}-text{b}}}right):::{rm Beta}$$
    (5)
    $$:text{y}={text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+left({text{y}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{y}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}right)left(frac{{text{a}}^{text{b}}}{{text{a}}^{text{b}}+{text{t}}^{text{b}}}right):::{rm Hill}$$
    (6)
    $$:y={y}_{min}+left({y}_{max}-{y}_{min}right){left{1-left[1-{left(frac{{y}_{min}}{{y}_{max}}right)}^{raisebox{1ex}{$1$}!left/:!raisebox{-1ex}{$4$}right.}right]{exp}left[frac{-at}{4{left({y}_{min}right)}^{raisebox{1ex}{$1$}!left/:!raisebox{-1ex}{$4$}right.}}right]right}}^{4}:::{rm Von: Bertalanffy}$$
    (7)
    where y represents the leaf area index (dependent growth parameter), bounded between a minimum value ymin and maximum value ymax. The independent variable t corresponds to the growth period, measured either in days after planting (DAP) or growing degree days (GDD). The curve’s shape and transition rates are governed by three constant coefficients: “a” controls the inflection point position, “b” determines the growth rate, and “v” adjusts the curve’s asymmetry. By combining singular sigmoid functions, various double sigmoid functions can be created to predict LAI as follows:$$:text{L}text{A}text{I}={text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}+left({text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{text{m}text{i}text{n}}right){odot}{text{f}}_{1}left(text{x}right)-left({text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{text{m}text{a}text{x}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{text{e}text{n}text{d}}right){odot}{text{f}}_{2}left(text{x}right)$$
    (8)
    where ʘ is the operator × or / and (:{text{f}}_{1}left(text{x}right)) and (:{text{f}}_{2})(x) are one of singular sigmoid functions (Eqs. 1–7), respectively. The double sigmoid functions for predicting LAI do not exhibit a purely increasing trend; the LAI rises up to a certain point (LAImax), then stabilizes, and after a while begins to decrease, LAImin is the LAI at initial growth stage, and LAIend is the LAI at end of growing season. The double sigmoid functions are presented in Table 1. The reason for 15 selected widely used double sigmoid functions [similar to 12] was to avoid unrealistic shapes or excessive parameterization. The order of combination was also crucial as the first function primarily influences the early growth trajectory, while the second governs the senescence phase.Table 1 Double sigmoid functions.Full size tableDetermining coefficients of equationsThe coefficients (a, b, c, d and v) of the functions in Table 1 were calculated using Excel software, based on the 2017 dataset (calibration year). Solver, a powerful tool in Excel, was utilized to solve the nonlinear equations. By minimizing the error value and employing the GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) method as the problem-solving technique, Solver determined the optimal coefficients for the functions. The objective function was minimized by sum of square error (SSE) as follows:$$:text{S}text{S}text{E}=sum:_{text{i}=1}^{text{n}}{({text{P}}_{text{i}}-{text{M}}_{text{i}})}^{2}$$
    (24)
    where (:{text{P}}_{text{i}}) and (:{text{M}}_{text{i}}) are the predicted and measured values by the double sigmoid function, respectively and n is the number of observations.All the calculations were conducted based on days after planting (DAP), however, cumulative heat units was used in the sigmoid growth function to make the results more applicable for various environmental conditions. The cumulative heat units, determined as growing degree days (GDD), are calculated as follows:$$:text{G}text{D}text{D}=sum:({text{T}}_{text{a}text{v}text{e}}-{text{T}}_{text{b}text{a}text{s}text{e}})$$
    (25)
    where (:{text{T}}_{text{a}text{v}text{e}}) is the mean daily air temperature (°C) and (:{text{T}}_{text{b}text{a}text{s}text{e}}) is the base temperature (°C) or the air temperature threshold below which plant growth does not occur. In this study, base temperature was 2.6 °C28. As temperature is used to calculated GDD, the results will be more applicable for different regions with different climates.Linking double sigmoid function coefficients to agronomic variablesAccording to29, the values of the coefficients of double sigmoid functions (a, b, c, d and v) are influenced by factors related to agronomic management practices. The values of constants in Eqs. (1-7) were fitted to quadratic functions of plant density and the total amount of seasonal applied water and rainfall, using SPSS software.$$:text{C}text{O}text{N}={text{A}}_{1}left(text{I}+text{R}right)+{text{B}}_{1}left(text{P}right)+{text{C}}_{1}left(text{I}+text{R}right)left(text{P}right)+{text{D}}_{1}{(text{I}+text{R})}^{2}+{text{E}}_{1}{left(text{P}right)}^{2}+{text{F}}_{1}{left(text{I}+text{R}right)}^{2}left(text{P}right)+{text{G}}_{1}left(text{I}+text{R}right){left(text{D}text{P}right)}^{2}+{text{H}}_{1}{(text{I}+text{R})}^{2}{left(text{P}right)}^{2}+{text{I}}_{1}$$
    (26)
    where CON is the coefficients of a, b, c, d, and v in Eqs. (1–7), I and R are the seasonal applied water and rainfall (m), respectively, P is the plant density (plant (:{text{m}}^{-2})), and A1, B1, C1, D1, E1, F1, G1, H1, and I1 are the coefficients of multiple regression.Statistical parametersTo evaluate the model, normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), the index of agreement (d), and mean residual error (MRE) were used. These parameters are calculated as follows30:$$:text{N}text{R}text{M}text{S}text{E}={left[frac{sum:_{text{i}=1}^{text{n}}{left({text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{P}}_{text{i}}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{i}}}right)}^{2}}{text{n}{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{a}text{v}text{g}}}^{2}}right]}^{0.5}$$
    (27)
    $$:text{d}=1-frac{sum:_{text{i}=1}^{text{n}}{left({text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{P}}_{text{i}}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{i}}}right)}^{2}}{sum:_{text{i}=1}^{text{n}}{left(left|{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{P}}_{text{i}}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{a}text{v}text{g}}}right|+left|{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{i}}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{a}text{v}text{g}}}right|right)}^{2}}$$
    (28)
    $$:text{M}text{R}text{E}=frac{sum:_{text{i}=1}^{text{n}}({text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{P}}_{text{i}}}-{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{i}}})}{text{n}{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{a}text{v}text{g}}}}$$
    (29)
    where (:{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{P}}_{text{i}}}), (:{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{i}}}) and (:{text{L}text{A}text{I}}_{{text{m}}_{text{a}text{v}text{g}}}) are the predicted, measured and mean of measured leaf area index, respectively, and n is the number of observations. MRE and NRMSE with smaller values and d with higher value indicates higher precision and accuracy of the model. Values of NRMSE less than 0.1 indicate excellent estimation accuracy, values between 0.1 and 0.2 show good estimation accuracy, values between 0.2 and 0.3 indicate fair estimation accuracy, and values of NRMSE greater than 0.3 show poor estimation accuracy31.ResultsFitting functions to leaf area index based on GDDThe coefficients of the sigmoid functions (using solver tool) were determined for all 15 functions under various irrigation levels and planting densities in both direct sowing and transplant cultivation. Among 15 functions, the Logistic-Logistic, Gompertz-Gomperz, Hill-Hill, Logistic-Richards, and Logistic-Hill functions performed more accurately considering the statistical indicators (Table S1). Based on the statistical parameters in Tables S1, the Logistic-Logistic, Gompertz-Gompertz, Hill-Hill, Logistic-Richards and Logistic-Hill double sigmoid functions yielded the most favorable outcomes for both direct sowing and transplant cultivation. The estimated coefficient values and statistical results of the top five performing double sigmoid functions are provided in Tables 2 and 3 for I100, four plant densities, and two cultivation methods. Also, the estimated coefficient values of the top five performing double sigmoid functions for all irrigation treatments, plant densities and cultivation methods are provided in Tables S2-S6.Table 2 Estimated coefficient values and the statistical indicators of various double sigmoid functions based on growing degree-days for I100, four planting densities, and direct sowing, and the statistical indicators for all irrigation treatments and crop densities.Full size tableIn direct cultivation (Table 2), the Logistic-Richards function for direct sowing showed the best overall performance, with the lowest NRMSE (0.04) and a high index of agreement (0.99), indicating minimal deviation between the predicted and measured values. Similarly, the Logistic-Hill function also performed strongly under direct sowing conditions (NRMSE = 0.04, d = 0.99, and MRE= −0.004) (Table 2).Under optimal irrigation water conditions (Table 2), all models showed strong fits with NRMSE values mostly below 0.05. The Logistic-Richards, Logistic-Logistic, and Logistic-Hill functions performed slightly better under high planting densities, with minimal errors (NRMSE = 0.008 at 180,000 plants ha− 1). The Gompertz-Gompertz and Hill-Hill functions had higher NRMSE values in comparison with latter models, especially at 135,000 and 45,000 plants ha− 1 (0.04 and 0.04, respectively). Overall, all functions provided adequate fits under well-watered conditions, with Logistic-Richards and Logistic-Hill showing more consistent accuracy across planting densities.At 75% irrigation level (data not shown), model accuracy decreased slightly, but NRMSE values remained below 0.1 for all functions. Logistic-Richards, Logistic-Logistic, and Logistic-Hill maintained high accuracy (NRMSE range: 0.03–0.07). Hill-Hill had minor increases in error, while Gompertz-Gompertz showed higher sensitivity to planting density under water deficit condition, with NRMSE values reaching 0.09 at 45,000 plants ha− 1.Under severe irrigation stress, 50% level (data not shown), model performance varied significantly. Logistic-Richards consistently outperformed all others with low error values across all densities (NRMSE range: 0.04–0.09). Logistic-Hill showed comparable performance, especially at intermediate densities. Logistic-Logistic and Gompertz-Gompertz had substantial performance degradation, with Logistic-Logistic reaching a NRMSE of 0.150 at 90,000 plants.ha− 1 and Gompertz-Gompertz peaking at 0.12 at 45,000 plants ha− 1. Hill-Hill showed moderate robustness, but Logistic-based models outperformed it under stress. The findings highlight the Logistic-Richards model’s adaptability in modeling asymmetric growth patterns typical under drought stress conditions. To maintain clarity and conciseness, the model comparison was conducted specifically under the direct sowing condition.In transplant cultivation (Table 3), the Logistic-Hill function again performed competitively, achieving the lowest NRMSE (0.06) and a high index of agreement (0.99) among the functions considered, with a near-zero MRE (−0.004). Although the Logistic-Logistic function achieved the same index of agreement (0.99) under transplant conditions, it presented a higher NRMSE (0.06) and a positive MRE (0.04), indicating a slight overestimation trend. The performance of models under different irrigation water levels, planting densities, and transplant cultivation were similar to that in direct cultivation (Table 3).Table 3 Estimated coefficient values and statistical indicators of various double sigmoid functions based on growing degree-days for I100, four planting densities, and transplant cultivation, and the statistical indicators for all irrigation treatments and crop densities.Full size tableThe goodness-of-fit parameters presented in Table 2 strongly support this observation. The Logistic–Richards function demonstrated the best performance with the lowest NRMSE (0.04) and the highest index of agreement (d = 0.99), indicating its superior accuracy and reliability under direct cultivation, while the Logistic-Hill performed the best (NRMSE = 0.064, d = 0.99, MRE=−0.004) under transplant condition (supplementary figure, Fig. S1). The Hill–Hill function also performed well, with NRMSE = 0.05 and d = 0.99, showing excellent predictive agreement across various planting densities under direct cultivation. The Logistic–Hill and Logistic–Logistic functions followed closely, with NRMSE values of 0.04 and 0.06 under direct cultivation and 0.064 and 0.063 under transplant condition, respectively (Fig. S1). All functions exhibited minimal mean relative error (MRE), typically ranging from − 0.01 to − 0.004, indicating no systematic bias in their predictions. The consistency of performance across planting densities (180,000 to 45,000 plants ha− 1) under full irrigation (I100) further underscores the robustness of these models.The Beta–Beta, Logistic–Gompertz, and Beta–Logistic functions showed moderate fitting performance for both cultivation methods (Fig. 1). The Beta–Beta function had NRMSE values ranging from 0.09 to 0.11, with index of agreement (d) values of 0.99 to 0.99 and close-to-zero MRE values (−0.004 to 0.0006). The Logistic–Gompertz function had NRMSE values of 0.08 and 0.09, with d values between 0.99 and 0.99, but positive MRE values (0.02 and 0.01) indicating a tendency to overestimate LAI. The Beta–Logistic function performed the weakest, with NRMSE values of 0.15 and 0.12, d values of 0.98 and 0.99, and the largest MRE of 0.04, showing overestimation of LAI. The Beta–Beta, Logistic–Gompertz, and Beta–Logistic functions exhibited greater deviation and less reliability in capturing LAI dynamics, compared to top-performing functions like Logistic–Richards and Hill–Hill.Moreover, variation of measured and predicted leaf area index by double sigmoid functions corresponding to 100% irrigation (I100) and a planting density of 180,000 plants ha− 1 (P180) for both cultivation methods during 2017 growing season (calibration year) are presented in Fig. 1. According to Fig. 1, the Logistic–Gompertz function modeled LAI with high accuracy under transplant conditions, especially when GDD was used as the time scale. Under direct sowing, the function also performed well, though it slightly overestimated early vegetative growth. The Beta–Logistic function slightly underfitted the initial LAI rise in direct sowing, while overestimating peak values in transplant cultivation. These observations suggest that such combinations are sensitive to cultivation-specific growth dynamics and may not generalize well without calibration. Among 15 selected double sigmoid functions, certain functions consistently showed poor performance, especially when specific functions were used as the first stage in the double sigmoid sequence. These included Weibull–Weibull, Von Bertalanffy–Von Bertalanffy, Logistic–Beta, Logistic–Weibull, Weibull–Logistic, and Von Bertalanffy–Logistic. The Weibull–Weibull function had high errors (NRMSE = 0.25 for direct sowing, 0.36 for transplanting) and slight under and overestimation (MRE= −0.005 for direct sowing, 0.11 for transplanting). The Von Bertalanffy–Von Bertalanffy function showed fair and poor results (NRMSE = 0.28 for direct sowing, 0.38 for transplanting) and slight overestimation (MRE = 0.04 for direct sowing, 0.005 for transplanting). The Logistic–Beta function performed fair and poor (NRMSE = 0.26 for direct sowing, 0.36 for transplanting) with slight overestimation (MRE = 0.01 for direct sowing, and 0.01 for transplanting). The Logistic–Weibull function was more accurate for direct sowing (NRMSE = 0.21, MRE= −0.01) but less accurate for transplanting (NRMSE = 0.38, MRE = 0.13). The Weibull–Logistic function was more accurate for direct sowing (NRMSE = 0.12, MRE = 0.005) in comparison with that for transplanting (NRMSE = 0.45, MRE = 0.11). The Von Bertalanffy–Logistic function provided good fits for both planting methods (NRMSE = 0.17 for direct sowing, and 0.25 for transplanting). The sensitivity of model performance to sigmoid component order and form was evident, with some combinations producing biologically implausible growth curves. The most significant issues arose when Weibull, Von Bertalanffy, or Beta functions were used as the initial component. These combinations often led to underestimation of early vegetative growth or produced unrealistic shapes with sudden transitions or overly flattened peaks. For instance, Weibull–Logistic and Von Bertalanffy–Logistic underestimated LAI during early GDD accumulation in direct sowing, while Logistic–Beta did not align well with the decline phase in transplant and also for direct sowing. The over- or underestimation of dual functions emphasizes the importance of function order, as improper placement can distort growth phase representation, especially when the mathematical structure lacks flexibility or biological relevance.Fig. 1Variation of measured and predicted leaf area index by double sigmoid functions during 2017 growing season (calibration year). The circular and rhombus points represent the measured leaf area index for direct sowing and transplant cultivation, respectively. The solid and dashed lines represent the predicted leaf area index for direct sowing and transplant cultivation, respectively. These graphs represent the results under 100% irrigation treatment conditions and a density of 180,000 plants (:{text{h}text{a}}^{-1}).Full size imageFigure 2 (a-j) present the relationship between the measured and predicted LAI of the five best-performing function pairs previously described in detail during the calibration phase using independent data (2018 growing season as validation). Under direct sowing conditions, the Logistic-Richards function (Fig. 2d) outperformed the other models, achieving the highest coefficient of determination ((:{text{R}}^{2})= 0.98), lowest normalized root mean square error (NRMSE = 0.1474), and a high index of agreement (d = 0.98). Under transplant cultivation, the Hill–Hill model exhibited the best performance among all evaluated functions, achieving high (:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.99, d = 0.99, NRMSE = 0.127, and MRE = − 0.05, indicating accurate and consistent prediction of LAI. According to Fig. 2a-j, the slope of linear regression (0.95 − 0.94 for direct and 0.94 − 0.92 for transplant cultivations) indicate that the all functions accurately predicted LAI values (close to 1.0) and small values of MRE showed a slight underprediction by the functions.Similar to Fig. 2, the statistical parameters between the measured and predicted LAI based on days after planting (DAP) was calculated for all functions (Data are not shown) for calibration and validation data. During the calibration phase, the Logistic–Logistic, Gompertz–Gompertz, Hill–Hill, Logistic–Richards, and Logistic–Hill functions demonstrated strong predictive accuracy. For direct sowing, NRMSE values ranged from 0.04 to 0.07, d values from 0.995 to 0.998, and MRE values from − 0.002 to − 0.08. For transplant cultivation, the corresponding values ranged from 0.06 to 0.09 for NRMSE, 0.996 to 0.998 for d values, and − 0.004 to − 0.01 for MRE. In the validation phase, performance remained strong though with slightly increased error margins. For direct sowing, NRMSE and d, ranged from 0.12 to 0.14, from 0.983 to 0.988, respectively and MRE from − 0.008 to − 0.04, respectively. For transplant cultivation, NRMSE, d, and MRE values were varied between 0.21 and 0.22, 0.973 to 0.977, and 0.01 and 0.02, respectively.Fig. 2Relationship between the measured and predicted leaf area index based on growing degree days using data of 2018 growing season (as validation year), for top five double sigmoid functions. Dash lines represent the 1:1 and solid lines show the regression line.Full size imageAdjusted coefficients of sigmoid double functionsThe coefficients of the selected functions were determined based on key influencing factors such as seasonal applied irrigation water, rainfall, and plant density. Using the 2017 dataset from the calibration phase, the coefficients of the functions were adjusted for the five best-performing models (Logistic–Logistic, Gompertz–Gompertz, Hill–Hill, Logistic–Richards, and Logistic–Hill) to reflect these environmental and management variables (Fig. 3a-h). These updated coefficients were then used to predict LAI values for the 2018 dataset in the validation phase. However, after incorporating the adjusted coefficients into the Logistic–Hill model, it was found that this function failed to accurately predict the LAI under transplant cultivation. According to Fig. 3d, the Logistic-Richards function exhibited the best performance under direct sowing conditions, achieving the highest coefficient of determination ((:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.99) and index of agreement (d = 0.99), along with the lowest normalized root mean square error (NRMSE = 0.08) among all evaluated functions. Furthermore, the slope of the linear regression line was 0.99 (close to 1.0) and MRE was − 0.003, indicating excellent agreement between the predicted and measured LAI values under direct sowing. Under transplant cultivation, the Hill–Hill function exhibited the best performance compared to the other functions, with (:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.98, d = 0.98, NRMSE = 0.16, and MRE = − 0.03. Additionally, as shown in Fig. 3g, the slope of the regression line for this function was 0.9683, which is close to the 1:1 line, indicating a more accurate prediction of LAI relative to the other evaluated functions.Fig. 3Relationship between the measured and predicted leaf area index based on growing degree days in calibration year (2017 growing season), after correcting the constant coefficients of double sigmoid functions. Dash lines represent the 1:1 and solid lines show the regression line.Full size imageValidation of functionsFigure 4 (a-h) shows the relationship between the measured and predicted leaf area index based on growing degree days in validation year (2018 growing season), after adjusting the constant coefficients of double sigmoid functions. Among the four evaluated functions under direct sowing conditions (Fig. 4d), the Logistic–Richards function demonstrated superior performance, with (:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.98, NRMSE = 0.15, MRE = − 0.05, and d = 0.98. Additionally, as shown in Fig. 4d, the slope of the regression line for this function was 0.94, indicating close agreement with the 1:1 line. Under transplant cultivation, the Hill–Hill model yielded the best performance among the four functions, with statistical parameters of (:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.98, NRMSE = 0.17, MRE = − 0.05, and d = 0.98. However, as illustrated in Fig. 4f, the slope of the Hill–Hill function was 0.9272, while the slope of the Gompertz–Gompertz function was 0.9852, suggesting that the Gompertz–Gompertz function provided a closer fit to the 1:1 line, therefore, it is more accurate in terms of slope alignment.To evaluate the impact of coefficient correction on function performance, statistical indicators were compared between the calibration and validation phases for both direct sowing and transplant cultivation. In the calibration phase for direct sowing, the Logistic–Richards function without coefficient correction showed a very low NRMSE (0.04). However, after applying coefficient correction, the NRMSE increased to 0.08, indicating a slight reduction in calibration accuracy. Similarly, under transplant cultivation, the Logistic–Logistic function (without correction) performed better during calibration (NRMSE = 0.06, d = 0.99, MRE = 0.045) than the Logistic–Logistic function (with correction) with higher error (NRMSE = 0.19, d = 0.97, MRE = 0.11). In the validation phase, a similar trend was also observed. Under direct sowing, the Logistic–Richards function showed nearly identical performance with and without correction: NRMSE = 0.15, d = 0.98 (without correction) vs. NRMSE = 0.17, d = 0.98 (with correction), indicating that coefficient correction had a negligible effect on function accuracy. Under transplant cultivation, the Hill–Hill function had slightly lower error without correction (NRMSE = 0.13, d = 0.99, and MRE= −0.05) compared to the corrected version (NRMSE = 0.17, d = 0.98, and MRE=−0.05). Overall, the results suggest that correcting the coefficients did not significantly improve—and in some cases slightly reduced—the predictive accuracy of the functions, especially during calibration. The functions calibrated without coefficient adjustment generally performed as well as or better than those with correction across both cultivation methods and evaluation phases.Fig. 4Relationship between the measured and predicted leaf area index based on growing degree days in validation year (2018 growing season), after adjusting the constant coefficients of double sigmoid functions. Dash lines represent the 1:1 and solid lines show the regression line.Full size imageDiscussionModeling the leaf area index (LAI) of sugar beet is essential for understanding crop growth dynamics, optimizing management practices, and improving yield predictions. Sigmoid functions, particularly single and double sigmoid models, are widely used to capture the characteristic S-shaped growth patterns of LAI over the growing season32. Single sigmoid functions, such as the Logistic or Gompertz models, are commonly employed to describe the cumulative LAI development during the growing season11. These models are characterized by an initial slow growth phase, a rapid exponential increase, and a plateau as the crop canopy closes and reaches its maximum LAI7. However, single sigmoid models may have limitations in accurately capturing the asymmetric nature of LAI dynamics33. Double sigmoid functions address these limitations by allowing for two distinct inflection points: one for the rising phase and another for the senescence phase5,12 This approach provides greater flexibility in fitting the observed LAI pattern, especially in crops like sugar beet with pronounced differences between the rates of leaf development and decline stags. Studies have shown that double sigmoid functions improved the fit to observed LAI data and enhanced the accuracy of phenological phase detection34,35. Phenological phase detection for sugar beet involves identifying stages such as emergence, leaf development, canopy closure, root bulking, and sugar accumulation36,37. Since LAI reflects canopy expansion and closure, modeling its growth using double sigmoid functions allows precise identification of transitions between these phases, which is essential for optimizing irrigation, nutrient management, and yield forecasting. This study assessed the effectiveness of double sigmoid functions in modeling LAI based DAP and GDD and for direct sowing and transplant cultivation with varying irrigation levels and planting densities to make the result more applicable for different regions. The top five best functions were Logistic-Logistic, Gompertz-Gompertz, Hill-Hill, Logistic-Richards, and Logistic-Hill functions, which performed the best in predicting sugar beet LAI in comparison with other functions using both DAP and GDD. However, caution is advised when using Weibull, Von Bertalanffy, and Beta functions in sigmoid double modeling, particularly in the initial stage, as they may compromise model performance and accuracy in capturing early and late LAI dynamics. Logistic-Richards achieved the best fit for direct sowing calibration data (NRMSE = 0.04 and d = 0.99), while Hill-Hill performed best under transplant cultivation using independent 2018 validation data (R² = 0.99, NRMSE = 0.13, d = 0.99). The superior performance of LR and HH models reflects the strength of double sigmoid functions in modeling nonlinear and asymmetric growth patterns. The Logistic-Richards function effectively handled variations in early growth rate and plateau behavior in direct sowing, while the Hill-Hill function was more adaptable under transplanting, where early establishment delays slightly modified the LAI curve.The Logistic–Richards function, combining Richards and Logistic functions, is effective for direct sowing due to its adaptability to varying growth rates. Although, lack of improvement from coefficient correction suggested that the original models were well-optimized for the datasets, it also highlights their limited generalizability without recalibration. The correction method may not have captured complex interactions between environmental factors and LAI, as seen in the Logistic–Hill function’s failure in transplant cultivation after correction. This sensitivity underscores the need for tailored adjustment strategies for different models in response to environmental recalibration.Growing Degree Days (GDD) is widely used because thermal time strongly correlates with crop development; however, it remains a temperature-centric metric and does not explicitly capture other environmental drivers that influence LAI dynamics. While GDD may indirectly reflect seasonal differences in rainfall or irrigation (as soil moisture affects canopy temperature and energy balance), critical meteorological variables such as relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), wind speed, solar radiation, and leaf temperature directly affect stomatal conductance, transpiration, and leaf expansion. Future work should consider integrating additional meteorological and soil parameters into the model structure or applying advanced approaches such as nonlinear corrections, machine learning-based parameter estimation, or hybrid modeling frameworks that link empirical growth curves with mechanistic crop processes to improve adaptability across diverse environments.The results of predicting the trend of changes in leaf area index under different irrigation treatments and crop densities using various double sigmoid functions are consistent. For instance, the Logistic–Richards model exhibited superior accuracy in predicting LAI under direct sowing across irrigation and planting density treatments when calibrated with GDD. The model’s normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) ranged from 0.008 to 0.096, while the index of agreement (d) consistently exceeded 0.991, indicating a strong agreement between observed and predicted values. Mean relative error (MRE) remained low (generally below 0.09) across treatments, further confirming the robustness of the model. The highest accuracy was observed under full irrigation at the highest planting density (I1D1D), where NRMSE was 0.008 and d reached 0.99, reflecting the model’s ability to capture the smooth and symmetrical LAI trajectory under optimal growing conditions. Agronomically, this performance is attributed to more complete physiological development under full irrigation and dense planting, which supports rapid canopy closure, minimal soil evaporation, and extended photosynthetic activity. These conditions align closely with the assumptions of sigmoid models, where leaf expansion follows a biphasic pattern—rapid early growth followed by gradual senescence. Conversely, performance slightly declined under severe water deficit (I3) and low-density treatments (D3 and D4), with NRMSE values approaching 0.09. These conditions introduce irregularities such as delayed early growth, premature senescence, and reduced LAI peaks due to limited water availability and increased bare soil exposure. Lower planting densities further amplified microclimatic variability by increasing soil heat flux and canopy temperature, accelerating leaf loss under stress. Despite these challenges, the model maintained strong predictive ability (d > 0.982) even in stressed scenarios, underscoring its robustness. The results emphasize that the Logistic–Richards model, calibrated with GDD, effectively represents LAI dynamics for sugar beet under direct sowing across diverse irrigation and density treatments. However, its underperformance in extreme deficit conditions highlights a structural limitation as fixed-parameter sigmoid models cannot fully capture abrupt physiological changes caused by severe stress. Future refinements could involve integrating water stress indices, dynamic senescence parameters, or additional meteorological variables such as vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and leaf temperature to improve adaptability under climate variability. Such improvements would enhance the model’s applicability for precision irrigation scheduling and crop management in arid and semi-arid regions.The similar performance of double sigmoid functions under direct sowing and transplant cultivation can be attributed to several factors. First, both planting methods were subjected to comparable environmental conditions during the main growth stages and received the same irrigation schedules, which are primary determinants of leaf expansion and canopy development. Adequate water availability during early vegetative growth likely minimized physiological differences between the two systems. Second, maximum LAI were achieved within a similar timeframe in both cultivation methods, reducing variation in LAI dynamics. Sugar beet’s high morphological plasticity enables transplanted plants to compensate for early growth delays by adjusting leaf size and number, ultimately matching the photosynthetic capacity of direct-sown plants. Additionally, high planting densities (e.g., 180,000 plants ha⁻¹) accelerated canopy closure for both methods, resulting in similar light interception and LAI patterns across treatments. These factors collectively explain the comparable statistical performance of double sigmoid models for direct and transplanted crops despite differences in initial establishment.It was reported by38 process-based models such as AquaCrop, DSSAT, APSIM, and SSM simulate crop development and yield by incorporating detailed representations of soil, crop, and atmospheric processes. While these models are valuable for scenario analysis, they require extensive data inputs and calibration, reducing transparency and practicality in data-scarce environments. For instance, DSSAT and APSIM require over 200 input parameters, whereas simpler models like SSM use about 55. Despite their complexity, increased parameterization does not always ensure superior robustness; simpler models such as SSM and CropSyst showed lower variability in yield prediction (CV: 8.2% and 14.3%) compared to APSIM (15.0%) and DSSAT (18.5%). Sugar beet LAI was predicted by sugar beet simulation model (SSM) developed by39 model and results showed that the SSM model was slightly underestimated the higher values of LAI resulting in decreasing model accuracy (NRMSE = 23.2% and d = 0.0.95). In contrast to latter models, the double sigmoid approach offers a transparent and computationally efficient alternative for LAI estimation. Our best models achieved high accuracy (R² > 0.98; NRMSE as low as 0.04) using only DAP or GDD, without requiring detailed soil or weather datasets. This simplicity makes double sigmoid models practical for operational use and precision agriculture in data-limited regions. However, their empirical nature limits the ability to capture dynamic soil-water-plant interactions.It was reported by16 that the Richards ((:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.95–0.99), Logistic ((:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.95–0.98), and Gompertz ((:{text{R}}^{2}) = 0.95–0.98) functions were found to be the most suitable functions to fit maize leaf growth across various cultivars. In contrast, the Weibull (R² = 0.88–0.93) and Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), (R² = 0.95–0.98) functions exhibited acceptable fits but were limited by highly correlated parameter estimates, reducing their suitability for precise maize leaf growth modeling. Also12, reported that the Beta-Richards and Richards-Gompertz functions provided the best fit for the measured dry matter during the growing season based on DAP and GDD, respectively. The combined use of two Von Bertalanffy or Weibull functions did not effectively capture the growth dynamics of rapeseed plants, exhibiting limited accuracy in modeling their development. Scientists such as14,29,40 found that the Logistic function was effective in predicting the height of lettuce plants, the dry matter yield of maize, and yield and dry matter of rapeseed, respectively. A study on growth modeling of beef tomatoes (‘9930) in Taiwan was conducted by41 over two seasons using Gompertz and Logistic functions based on growing degree days (GDD) and days after transplanting (DAT). The GDD-based models showed slightly better performance in estimating plant height, Leaf Area Index (LAI), and dry matter components compared to DAT-based models. The Logistic function better matched the expected biological stages than the Gompertz function. In Taiwan, tomato scions grafted onto eggplant rootstocks were studied over six seasons to enhance summer cultivation, with seedling growth modeled using Gompertz, Richards, and Logistic curves. The results showed that, the performance of the three nonlinear models did not vary greatly in the same growing season. However, a significant difference across growing seasons was observed (R² = 0.74–0.85 for calibration, 0.72–0.80 for validation) suggesting to apply models for each season, separately32. The obtained results in the current study did not show any priority by application of DAP and GDD, while using GDD makes the results more applicable for different regions.ConclusionsThis study analyzed 15 different double sigmoid functions to model sugar beet leaf area index (LAI) based on growing degree days (GDD) and days after planting (DAP) under varying irrigation treatments (I100, I75, I50) and plant densities (P180, P135, P90, P45) across direct sowing and transplant cultivation. The Logistic-Richards and Hill-Hill functions showed the best fit during the growing season, based on both GDD and DAP, as indicated by superior statistical indicators in both calibration and validation phases. The Von Bertalanffy, Weibull and Beta functions were not effective in describing the leaf area index of sugar beet variation. In terms of irrigation water levels in calibration stage, functions under full irrigation (I100) under direct sowing demonstrated optimal performance, with the Logistic-Richards function achieving a low NRMSE of 0.008 at P180. Under water stress conditions (I75, I50), the Logistic-Richards function maintained robust fits (NRMSE = 0.03–0.09). Other functions, such as Gompertz-Gompertz in calibration phase under direct sowing, exhibited higher errors under water stress (NRMSE up to 0.12), highlighting the resilience of the Logistic-Richards function. Plant density had a significant impact on the function accuracy, with higher density (P180) resulting in the best fits (e.g., NRMSE = 0.008 for Logistic-Richards in calibration phase and under direct sowing), while lower density (P90, P45) led to increased errors (NRMSE = 0.04–0.05) due to sparser canopies. Adjusting function coefficients to account for environmental factors such as seasonal applied water, rainfall, and planting density generally led to decreased predictive accuracy under direct and transplant cultivation. The findings of this study provide a reliable tool for estimating sugar beet LAI throughout the growing season, supporting precision agriculture applications such as irrigation optimization and planting schedule adjustments. However, caution is advised when applying these functions under severe water stress or low plant density, where deviations may occur. Finally, the Logistic–Richards function, with its superior accuracy and robustness, is recommended for practical use in sugar beet management based on GDD and DAP. Future research should validate these functions under diverse field conditions and across multiple growing seasons to confirm their robustness. Incorporating additional environmental factors, such as light intensity, soil water content, or nutrient availability, may improve model performance, particularly for coefficient-corrected versions. Advanced modeling technique, such as machine learning, could offer greater flexibility in capturing complex LAI dynamics.

    Data availability

    Data sets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding authors upon request.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsAuthors also appreciate the support from Shiraz University Research Council, Drought Research Center, the Center of Excellent for On-Farm Water Management, and Iran National Science Foundation (INSF).FundingThis work was funded by Shiraz University, Grant #2GCB1M222407. Authors also appreciate the support from Shiraz University Research Council, Drought Research Center, the Center of Excellent for On-Farm Water Management, and Iran National Science Foundation (INSF). Second author has received research support.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsWater Engineering Department and Drought Research Center, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, IranSaba Hashempour Motlagh Shirazi, Fatemeh Razzaghi, Ali Reza Sepaskhah & Maryam KhozaeiIrrigation Department, Fasa University, Fasa, IranAli ShabaniAuthorsSaba Hashempour Motlagh ShiraziView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarFatemeh RazzaghiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAli ShabaniView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAli Reza SepaskhahView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMaryam KhozaeiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsS. H. : The conception and design of the study, acquisition of data, analysis, interpretation of data, and writing the first draft of manuscript; F.R. : The conception and design of the study, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data, supervising, and revising the article critically; A. S.: The conception and design of the study, acquisition of data, analysis, and revising the article critically; A. R. S. : The conception and design of the study, and revising the article critically; M. K. : The conception and design of the study. All authors read the final draft and approved to be submitted.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
    Fatemeh Razzaghi.Ethics declarations

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    Ecological impacts and management challenges of non-native molluscs in China

    AbstractRapid development in China over the past decades has been accompanied by an ongoing influx of non-native species. Many non-native mollusc species have been introduced both intentionally and unintentionally, leading to the establishment of feral populations through escapees. However, there is limited information regarding the status, threats to native biodiversity, and the contributions of these non-native molluscs to commercial breeding, the aquarium trade, and other sectors. In this study, we reviewed the impacts of introduced non-native molluscs to address these gaps. Additionally, we identified areas for future research and management recommendations. Our findings show that a total of 61 non-native mollusc species, spanning 15 orders, 23 families, and 41 genera, have been introduced into China. The primary pathway of introduction is through commercial breeding (34 species), followed by unintentional imports (20 species) and the aquarium trade (seven species). While many of these non-native molluscs are valuable as commercial breeding products and provide high nutritional value, some have caused significant negative impacts on environmental health, economic development, human health, and various aspects of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Increased research on the monitoring, control, and management of non-native molluscs in China is urgently needed.

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    IntroductionNon-native species are considered one of the most serious threats to global biodiversity and ecosystem function, inflicting significant ecological and economic loss1,2. Along with rapid development, a great number of non-native species are introduced continuously, especially in large countries such as Russia, Canada, the United States, Australia, South Africa, China and Brazil3,4,5,6,7,8,9. For example, there are recorded 460 non-native species in Brazil and 448 non-native species in China, respectively8,9. However, research about non-native species in regions such as Asia, South America, and Africa has lagged far behind that of Europe, North America and Oceania10,11.China is a vast country (9.6 million km2, the third largest country in the world) with very high biodiversity (including 34,984 higher plants, 6445 vertebrates, and over 10,000 fungi) and numerous endemic species12, but it is one of the countries most seriously threatened by invasion of non-native species13,14,15. A large number of non-native species were introduced in China for commercial breeding, the aquarium trade, horticulture, ecological restoration, for use as fertilizer, forage purposes, and other applications13,14,15,16. Many non-native species have established widely distributed feral populations and have caused negative impacts on native species, local ecology, human health, and the development of economy13,14,15,16,17,18. For example, some freshwater fishes (such as Tilapia species and Gambusia affinis (Baird & Girard, 1853)) and aquatic plants (for example Myriophyllum aquaticum (Vell.) Verdc. 1973 and Cabomba caroliniana A.Gray) have established extensive feral populations with significant negative economic and ecological impacts19,20,21,22,23. Numerousstudies has summarized the taxonomy, distribution, and impacts of non-native aquatic plants, freshwater fishes, and commercial breeding species in China13,15,24, however there has been little taxonomic studies on non-native molluscs.The Mollusca Phylum is the second largest animal group of the invertebrate, and it has a high representation in diverse aquatic and terrestrial habitats25. Some mollusc species act as ecosystem engineers, which can significantly alter ecosystem structure and functioning26. Recently, many non-native mollusc species have been introduced into China and are a great threat to native biodiversity, human health, and agricultural production14,16. For example, apple snails (mainly Pomacea canaliculata) can be prey on native amphibians27, are herbivorous and consume native macrophytes and grain28, and alter wetland ecosystems and functions29. There are reports that many non-native molluscs (such as Physella acuta, Pomacea canaliculate, and Pecten maximus) have been introduced in China and significant impacts30,31, however, little information exists about these non-native mollusc species.The aims of this study are to update the inventory of non-native molluscs in China and to summarize their biological status (taxonomy, origins) and invasive capabilities (introduction pathway, ecological impacts). We hope that this study will help environment managers to better understand and control these non-native mollusc species.Materials and methodsWe conducted a comprehensive literature review that contained the following combination of words: “alien OR exotic OR non-native OR non-indigenous OR invas*” and “mollusc OR snail OR shellfish” and “China” in the title, abstract, or keywords from the WOS database (http://www.isiknoledge.com) and CNKI (http://www.cnki.net). All papers clearly introducing non-native mollusc species in China were collected and analyzed. There are a total of 763 papers have been collected and analyzed, until June 2024. Additional information was collected from selected Chinese books, such as Alien Aquatic Plants and Animals in China30. A series of field investigations about non-native species was also conducted over the past twenty years. Field surveys on mollusks were conducted across mainland China (including the Eastern Plains, Mongolian-Xinjiang Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) from 2008 to 2024, with a total of 500 sampling sites covering 21 provinces and municipalities in China. The primary collection tools were D net (0.25 × 2 m, with 420 µm mesh) and mussel rakes (width: 0.6 m, mesh diameter: 1 cm), supplemented by handpicking. For attached snails, a vegetation sampler was used to collect samples 1–2 times at each site, with a sampling area of 1/4 m2. Specimens were manually picked in the field and preserved in a 10% formalin solution. All specimens were brought back to the laboratory for microscopic examination.ResultsTaxonomic diversityWe recorded a total of 61 non-native molluscs belonging to 15 orders, 23 families and 41 genera in China (Supplementary Table S1). The Haliotidae and Pectinidae were the families with the greatest number of non-native molluscs (nine species) in China, followed by the Ampullariidae with six species, and the Helicidae with five species. Each of the other families possesses less than 5 non-native molluscs.Geographic originNorth America is the primary origin of non-native molluscs (16 species, 26.23%), followed by Asia and Europe (14 species, 22.95% respectively), South America (nine species, 14.75%), Oceania (seven species, 11.47%) and Africa (one species, 1.63%).Introduction pathwayWe identified three main introduction pathways of non-native molluscs in China (Supplementary Table S1). Commercial breeding is the primary introduced pathway (34 species, 55.73%), followed by unintentional introductions (20 species, 32.78%), and the aquarium trade ranked third (7 species, 11.47%).Suitable habitats and distributionChina is a large country that provides a diversity of habitats, including terrestrial, freshwater and marine, for non-native species. According to our investigation, thirty-four non-native mollusc species (55.73% of total non-native molluscan species) are suitable for marine habitats. Fifteen non-native species (24.59%) are suitable for freshwater habitats. Other 12 non-native species (19.67%) are suitable for terrestrial habitats.Information about the distribution of non-native molluscs species in China is very scarce and scattered. Based upon our field investigations and a literature review, the ranges of 46 non-native mollusc species in China are presented in Supplementary Table S1. Most non-native mollusc species are primarily distributed in South China (Fig. 1).Fig. 1Regional distribution of non-native mollusc species in China.Full size imageTime of initial introduction and first records or reports of locations in ChinaThe rate of documented non-native mollusc introductions in China is accelerating (Fig. 2). Nearly sixty percent of non-native mollusc species were introduced after 2000. The first record of an introduced non-native mollusc species was that of Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, 1822), which was imported in Fujian Province for commercial breeding in 193130. It was followed by the introduction of Bulinus truncatus (Audouin, 1827) in 1948. Other non-native molluscs were introduced to China after the founding of the People’s Republic of China (1949).Fig. 2The cumulative number of non-native mollusc species in China.Full size imageThe initial site of introduction for over one third of the non-native mollusc species is unknown (23 species, 37.7%). Shandong Province has the first records of non-native molluscs (11 species, 18.03%), followed by Taiwan (7 species, 11.47%), Guangdong (6 species, 9.83%), Liaoning (5 species, 8.19%), Hong Kong (three species, 4.91%), Fujian (two species, 3.27%), and Chongqing, Jiangxi, Shanghai, and Zhejiang (one species, 1.63%). All information was presented in Supplementary Table S1.Ecological and economic impactsBased on our field investigations and literature review, there are 25 non-native mollusc species that have been listed as potentially having negative ecological impacts (Supplementary Table S1). These include the impacts of their herbivory on rice and native aquatic plants (12 species), followed by competition for habitat and food and acting as intermediate parasite hosts (eight species, respectively), hybridization and genetic introgression, prey upon native species (three species in each category, respectively), and acting as occluding screens and mats covering aquaculture cages (one species). The ecological and economic impacts of non-native species are shown in Supplementary Table 1.DiscussionIntroduction pathwayCommercial breeding is one of the most important introduction pathways for aquatic non-native species32. Chinese commercial breeding is the fastest-growing segment in the country’s food production arena, and China has become the world’s leading commercial breeding producer during the past twenty years33,34. A great number of non-native species were introduced as additions to those farmed for food and they have improved the total production output and value13,14,16,25. Some non-native molluscs, such as the Atlantic Bay scallop (Argopecten irradians (Lamarck, 1819)), large weathervane scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis (Jay, 1857)), and giant cupped oyster (Magallana gigas (Thunberg, 1793)), have become particularly prominent among the farmed species in China24. As living standards improve, the Chinese market demand for high-value aquatic products, such as scallops and oysters has increased rapidly. Adults and juveniles of these non-native molluscs will continue to be introduced in China for improvement in the diversity of farmed food products along.The aquarium trade has gradually become the most common introduction pathway of non-native aquatic species in China13,15. In addition to stores and retail outlets in large cities, many non-native aquatic plants are marketed through network platforms or pet stores20,23,35. Inevitably, some non-native molluscs adhere to aquatic plants and are inadvertently brought to new regions during commerce involving other live aquatic organisms36. For example, we observed individuals of Pomacea attached to the leaves of some non-native plants, such as parrot’s feather (Myriophyllum aquaticum), fanwort (Cabomba caroliniana), American waterweed (Elodea canadensis) and large-flowered waterweed (Egeria densa Planchon, 1849) in some aquarium stores in Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Nanjing37,38,39. Thus, these non-native molluscs could potentially spread to the whole country by internet commerce. Some attractive shellfish such as the flame scallop (Ctenoides scaber (Born, 1778)) were very popular among aquarium enthusiasts because of their unique appearance and color. Some scrapers snails, such as Planorbarius corneus (Linnaeus, 1758), were used for the removal of attached algae by aquarium hobbyists. Finally, these non-native mollusc species were inadvertently introduced as escapees and established feral populations in natural waterbodies30.Unintentional introduction is another major introduction pathway for non-native molluscs in China (Supplementary Table S1). To support a rapidly developing economy, a great diversity of cargos and ores were imported into China. Some non-native species were mingled with ore shipments, wooden boxes, and sawdust, and thus were unintentionally brought into China40,41. For example, we observed that giant African snails (Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, 1822)) were imported to the islands of Sanshan city mixed with sawdust and dust42. Because of accidental introduction, some mollusc species, such as the three band garden slug (Ambigolimax valentianus (A. Férussac, 1821)) and rosy wolfsnail (Euglandina rosea (A. Férussac, 1821)) were added to the “List of imported plant quarantine pests in People’s Republic of China”43. It can be predicted that many more non-native molluscs will be introduced into China along with an expansion of goods transport and through Chinese international trade.Current distributionOverall, the number of non-native mollusc species in China’s provinces has been gradually decreasing from the eastern coast to the west interior. This is because some non-native mollusc species were brought in coastal areas of China for aquaculture (Supplementary Table S). The provinces with the highest number of non-native species are Shandong and Guangdong with 21 species, respectively; followed by Fujian and Zhejiang with 16 species, respectively; Hainan and Guangxi with 11 species, respectively; Taiwan and Jiangsu with10 species, respectively. All other provinces support less than 10 species.Ecological and economic impactsCommercial breeding is a major and vital industry in China, which has the highest farmed fisheries production in the world44. Many non-native molluscs are widely used in mariculture and support rapid economic growth14,24. For example, the bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) and its subspecies Maxico bay scallop (Argopecten irradians concentricus (Say, 1822)), are among the most successfully cultivated non-native mollusc species. Bay scallops have been widely cultivated in the China Sea and its production there constitutes more than half of the global scallop production45. Another famous example is Magallana gigas (Thunberg, 1793), which has been grown in almost all Chinese coastal Provinces, including Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. It has become one of the important commercial breeding molluscs in China. Thus, the Ministry of Agriculture (currently named the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs) of China released important commercial breeding technical specification “Pacific oyster”46. It is clear that these non-native molluscs are important commercial breeding species in China and contribute significantly to local economic development and alleviating poverty and food insecurity.Many non-native molluscs have a high potential to cause significant negative ecological and economic impacts (Supplementary Table S1). This may be because most of them are ecological engineers that substantial graze on native plant (phytoplankton and aquatic plants) or prey on native animals (including zooplankton, aquatic insects, snail, and fish), eventually causing significantly changes to native flora and fauna in a diversity of habitats, including river, lakes, and estuaries47,48.

    (1)

    Herbivory on crops and vegetables.

    Most non-native molluscs, such as the golden apple snail and the giant African snail (Lissachatina fulica), are omnivores that graze on vegetables and native plants. The primary distribution of these herbivorous snails is in South China, one of China’s leading grain and vegetable producing regions. For example, the farmland area invaded by golden apple snails increased rapidly from 1,290,200 hm2 in 2011 to 1,701,100 hm2 in 202049. On the one hand, the distribution of golden apple snail has spread northward from south China (including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian) to north China (like Ningxia, Hebei, Shanxi, and Shaanxi) due to global warming. On the other hand, the farmland area colonized by the golden apple snail increased quickly in South China. The farmland areas occupied by the golden apple snail in Hunan increased from 103,000 hm2 in 2011 to 333,300 hm2 in 202049. We observed that golden apple snails damaged 43 plant species including 15 important economic agricultural crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa L.), lotus root (Nelumbo nucifera Gaertn.), and water dropwort (Oenanthe javanica DC.)50. Another famous example is that of the giant African snail, which occurs in most regions of South China and whose herbivory has decreased the quality of terrestrial agricultural vegetables produced regionally51. Because of the negative effects of their herbivory, the giant African snail and golden apple snail were added to the List of Alien Invasive Species in China (First Batch)52 and to the List of Key management of Invasive Alien Species53.

    (2)

    Predation on native species.

    As omnivores, some non-native molluscs can prey on native molluscan species. For example, Euglandina rosea (Férussac, 1821) feeds primarily upon snails and other molluscs51. It was introduced into some regions as a natural enemy of the giant African snail. However, it has caused a sharp decline in the populations of some native molluscs and even threatened these native species with extinction, jeopardizing native terrestrial ecosystems51.

    (3)

    Intermediate hosts of parasites.

    Many non-native mollusc species, such as the giant African snail (Lissachatina fulica) and the ram’s horn snail (Biomphalaria straminea), are important intermediate hosts of parasites54,55. A well-known example is the golden apple snail, which is an intermediate host of parasites, such as Echinostoma revolutum, Gonathostoma spinigerum, and Angiostrongylus cantonensis, which cause serious human diseases54. The most frequent cause of eosinophilic meningitis in southeast Asia and the Pacific region is angiostrongyliasis, which typically arises from eating a snail or other mollusc that hasn’t been fully cooked and is carrying the A. cantonensis infection56. The first case recorded occurred in Taiwan in 194557, and its initial record in Guangdong Province of China mainland in 198458. Since then, multiple outbreaks of eosinophilic meningitis have caught the public and government’s attention in China59. The most serious one occurred in eastern China during 2006 with 160 sick and over 100 people hospitalized. By eating undercooked infected snails or fish containing the metacercaria of the Echinostomatide family, Echinostomiasis has infected patients in China, such as Yunnan, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning60.Biomphalaria straminea is another non-native mollusc that is of serious public health concern because it is an intermediate vector host of Schistosoma mansoni and can lead to schistosomiasis61. B. straminea is native to South America and was first recorded in Hong Kong in 197462. It was reported in the Luohu District of Shenzhen city (a region of the China mainland bordering Hong Kong) in 198163. Now, this species has become widespread in South China and has become an important intermediate host for schistosomiasis spread64,65. In the past twenty years, over one million Chinese workers have gone to Africa, some of whom are infected with schistosomiasis, and then returned to China66. This leads South China at high risk of spreading Schistosomiasis because Shenzhen city (located in the South China with a wide distribution of intermediate hosts of Schistosomiasis) is a major area of labor exporting with high population mobility and frequent international communications67,68.

    (4)

    Hybridization and genetic introgression.

    Hybridization of native and non-native species is an important threat to native biodiversity69. For example, an important native aquaculture mollusc species, Chlamys (Leochlamys) farreri (K. H. Jones & Preston, 1904), has been displaced by two non-native species (Mizuhopecten yessoensis and Argopecten irradians) because of hybridization and genetic introgression70. In natural waterbodies, Sinohyriopsis schlegelii can hybridize with the most important Chinese native pearl culture mollusc species, such as Hyriopsis cumingii (Lea, 1852)30. It is a potential threat to China’s pearl culture industry, which is the world’s largest pearl cultivated producer.

    (5)

    Competition for habitat and food.

    Many non-native molluscs are introduced for commercial breeding because of their rapid growth, wide environmental tolerance, and high reproduction capability71. However, it is these traits that enable those non-native molluscs to outcompete native taxa and occupy a broad range of suitable habitats and food16. Nine non-native mollusc species have been shown to compete for habitat and food with native mollusc species (Supplementary Table S1). Argopecten irradians concentricus, Argopecten irradians, Pecten maximus, Mercenaria mercenaria, and Mizuhopecten yessoensis are widely cultivated in almost all marine areas of China. Inevitably, these non-native molluscs escaped from aquaculture areas and have established wild populations that occupy large areas. Unfortunately, some of the native species, such as Azumapecten farreri and Mimachlamys nobilis have been displaced by these non-native molluscs30. Finally, the non-native mollusc aquaculture homogenizes intertidal soft-sediment communities for more than 20,000 km long China’s coastline72.

    (6)

    Influences of aquaculture and human facilities.

    The populations of some non-native molluscs become abundant and cover coastal cages, wharves and pipelines, which have negative impacts on mariculture, recreational sailing, and drainage systems30. In the past forty years, the coastal regions of China have been among the fastest growing regions in the world and a great number of human-made facilities were built along the Chinese coast73. For example, over 754,697 ha of coastal wetlands have been transformed for agricultural, industrial, and urban land uses74. Fast-growing non-native molluscs, such as the Santo Domingo falsemussel (Mytilopsis sallei) can cover and encase mariculture cages, causing the decline of mariculture production by decreasing light and aquatic oxygen content30. Some non-native molluscs foul aquaculture farming racks and ropes, and accelerate the corrosion of underwater metals, pipeline, and wharves75. Every year, local administrative departments spent a very large amount of money to clear notorious non-native molluscs from coastal regions of China76. Unfortunately, most of the cleanup and removal efforts have been unsuccessful, especially in tropical and subtropical coastal areas, where these non-native molluscs quickly re-establish their populations.Monitoring and managementPrevention of introduction is the best choice for control of non-native species77. On the one hand, some new techniques, such as environmental DNA and X-ray, should be applied in animal and plant quarantines. On the other hand, some risk assessment, such as AS-ISK (Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit) and species distribution models should be conducted before the introduction of non-native species. Finally, there is an urgent need for more trained taxonomists and researchers to identify and devise management strategies for novel non-native species upon their detection78.China is a very large country with diverse climates and habitats. Like native species, non-native mollusc species have preferred and suitable regions and habitats that they can occupy. A first step in the compilation of an updated inventory of non-native mollusc species is to conduct more field surveys to accurately determine the distribution of problematic non-native molluscs, such as apple snails and the giant African snail. Cooperation between local governments, non-profit environmental protection organizations, and local residents is important in understanding and controlling introduced molluscs in urban and natural areas.Eradication of non-native species is an ideal means to control the negative impacts of non-native species. Mechanical, physical, chemical and biological methods have all been conducted to control and eradicate exotics15,79. However, each of these approaches has some adverse consequences, such as high economic cost, adverse environmental effects, negative effects on non-targeted species, and all are limited in their effectiveness in controlling non-native species79. Thus, more research regarding life-history, population dynamics, and ecological impacts of non-native molluscs is urgently needed.This study covers all regions of China, including Chinese mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. However, due to funding and other constraints, we just collected limited information about the non-native species in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau regions. Therefore, we hope to increase collaboration with scholars from these three regions in the future so that we can better study and manage non-native species in China.

    Data availability

    Data is provided within the manuscript or supplementary information files.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe are grateful to editors and Dr. Miao Rong-Li for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0402), Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou, China (2023B03J1306), Guangdong Provincial Special Fund for Modern Agriculture Industry Technology Innovation Team (2022KJ134), the National Freshwater Genetic Resource Center (FGRC18537), and the Wuhan Branch, Supercomputing Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.FundingSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program, 2019QZKK0402, Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou, China, 2023B03J1306, Guangdong Provincial Special Fund for Modern Agriculture Industry Technology Innovation Team, 2022KJ134, National Freshwater Genetic Resource Center, FGRC18537.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsCollege of Life Sciences, Huangshi Key Laboratory of Lake Environmental Conservation and Sustainable Utilization of Resources, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi, 435002, ChinaWen Xiong & Kun XuDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-2525, USAPeter A. BowlerCollege of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, ChinaJun WangKey Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Aquatic Invasive Alien Species, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangdong Modern Recreational Fisheries Engineering Technology Center, Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou, 510380, ChinaYuan-Yuan Wang, Meng Xu & Xi-Dong MuInstitute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430072, ChinaBao-Qiang WangAuthorsWen XiongView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarPeter A. BowlerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarKun XuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarJun WangView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarYuan-Yuan WangView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMeng XuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarXi-Dong MuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarBao-Qiang WangView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsWen Xiong: Supervision, Investigation, Writing—original draft, writing—review & editing. Peter A. Bowler: writing—review & editing. Kun Xu: Methodology. Jun Wang: Methodology. Yuan-Yuan Wang: Methodology. Meng Xu: Methodology. Xidong Mu: Supervision, Writing—Review & Editing, Funding acquisition. Bao-Qiang Wang: Methodology, Writing—Review & Editing, Funding acquisition.Corresponding authorsCorrespondence to
    Xi-Dong Mu or Bao-Qiang Wang.Ethics declarations

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    Spatial temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of net primary productivity in the Huaihe River Economic Belt on seasonal scale

    AbstractNet Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem functioning and a major regulator of the global carbon cycle. Yet, its interannual fluctuations and seasonal drivers remain unclear. Using Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis, and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of seasonal NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021. Results show a general upward trend across all seasons, with the strongest increase in winter. Spatially, NPP decreased from southeast to northwest, with coastal high-value areas contracting seasonally and distinct differences between mountainous and hilly regions. Seasonal patterns revealed clear heterogeneity: spring, summer, and autumn were dominated by stability or improvement with localized degradation, while winter displayed a stable north-south differentiation. Soil moisture emerged as the dominant driver, with multiple factors exerting synergistic effects on seasonal NPP dynamics. This study provides scientific insights to support ecological management and the pursuit of carbon neutrality in the Huaihe River Economic Belt.

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    IntroductionGlobal carbon emissions exacerbate the greenhouse effect and have a profound impact on the global ecosystem1.Vegetation, as a core component of the terrestrial biosphere, serves as a natural link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and pedosphere2. Its role in maintaining climate stability and regulating carbon balance has garnered extensive academic attention in recent years, becoming one of the central issues in global change research3,4. Vegetation plays a key role in the carbon cycle, and the change of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity is closely related to the structure and function of ecosystems5,6. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of vegetation, defined as the net amount of carbon produced by plants through photosynthesis minus that consumed through respiration, is a crucial indicator of the productive capacity of vegetation communities7,8. Changes in NPP not only play a significant role in the global carbon cycle, climate regulation, and carbon balance but also enable estimations of Earth’s carrying capacity and assessments of the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems9,10,11.With the rapid advancement of remote sensing technology and a deepening understanding of ecosystem process mechanisms, the use of remote sensing data and estimation models to monitor, estimate, and analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPP has become the primary approach in NPP research12,13,14,15. Specifically, research focuses on two main areas: one is analyzing the spatiotemporal trends and future projections of regional NPP16,17,18,19, and the other investigates how climate change and human activities impact vegetation NPP20,21,22,23. Due to data scale limitations, past studies have primarily relied on annual NPP data to analyze spatiotemporal evolution and driving response characteristics in study areas24,25. Less attention has been paid to investigating abrupt changes in NPP and factor responses at finer temporal scales, limiting the understanding of dynamic NPP variations under different seasonal conditions. In terms of driving factor response characteristics, the academic community has employed various methods to qualitatively and quantitatively identify major influencing factors, quantify each factor’s contribution, and explore the interrelationships among factors. Research primarily focuses on the impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP26,27.In November 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released the Huaihe River Economic Belt Development Plan, marking the elevation of regional coordinated development in the Huaihe River Economic Belt to a national strategy28. The plan emphasizes that the Huaihe River Economic Belt will adhere to the fundamental principles of resource conservation and environmental protection, with one of its strategic positions being a demonstration zone for watershed ecological civilization construction. By 2035, the goal is to establish a beautiful, livable, vibrant and well-ordered ecological economic belt. Located between the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Basin, the Huaihe River Economic Belt spans the Huang-Huai Plain and connects central and eastern China. It serves as a key ecological security barrier for China’s ecological civilization construction and high-quality economic development, while also being an ecologically sensitive zone with high susceptibility to environmental changes. Positioned within China’s north-south transition zone and influenced by monsoon climates, the region exhibits complex and dynamic ecological conditions. In recent years, rapid urbanization in the region has led to significant changes in land use patterns, resulting in varying degrees of disturbance to vegetation coverage and ecosystem functions. Therefore, studying the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving response mechanisms of vegetation NPP in this region is crucial. Such research not only helps in understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on the carbon sequestration function of ecosystems but also provides scientific support for regional ecological conservation, land use planning, and environmental management.This study employed the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to obtain seasonal-scale NPP data, capturing seasonal dynamics and spatial variations that are often overlooked at the annual scale. By integrating climate, soil, and topographic factors, the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model was applied to quantify the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of driving mechanisms, highlighting the differential effects of influencing factors on seasonal NPP. The results reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation productivity and differences in carbon sequestration capacity, provide essential support for identifying ecologically fragile areas and high-value carbon sink zones, and offer scientific guidance for optimizing ecological restoration and land use strategies in the Huaihe River Economic Belt, thereby promoting coordinated ecological protection and economic development as well as contributing to carbon neutrality goals.Materials and methodsStudy areaThe Huaihe River Economic Belt (HREB) is located in central-eastern China (31(^circ)01’–36(^circ)13’N, 112(^circ)14’–120(^circ)54’E) and encompasses the regions traversed by the main stream and primary tributaries of the Huai River, as well as the Yishu-Sishui River system. This area includes 25 prefecture level cities and 4 counties across five provinces: Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and Hubei. The HREB lies between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, bridging the Huang-Huai Plain and connecting central and eastern China, positioned within China’s north-south climate transition zone29. In terms of topographic features, the elevation in this region ranges from -11 to 2137 m, and it can be divided into four typical units: the Tongbai-Dabie Mountains in the southwest (elevation 500–2137 m), the Yimeng Mountains in the northeast (elevation 400-1156 m), the Funiu Mountains in the west (elevation 200–800 m), and the Huang-Huai Plain in the central and eastern parts (elevation < 50 m). Plains with elevations below 500 m account for 98.4% of the region’s total area, mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Huaihe River and the Yishu-Sishui River Basin. The terrain gently slopes from northwest to southeast, with an average slope of less than 5.4(^circ).In terms of climate, the region is located within the north–south climate transition zone of China, serving as a climatic ecotone between the northern subtropical and warm temperate zones, and exhibits typical monsoonal characteristics. Specifically, the area experiences cold winters, hot summers, and distinct seasonal variations, with complex and highly variable weather systems. Based on annual temperature and precipitation data from 2010 to 2021, the spatial distribution of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation was derived. The region’s mean annual temperature is 15.6(^circ)C, showing a trend of lower temperatures in the southeast and higher in the northwest. Affected by both the East Asian monsoon circulation and orographic uplift effects, annual precipitation exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, ranging from 497.6 mm to 1,498.3 mm, and generally decreases from south to north.The Huaihe River Economic Belt is predominantly characterized by cultivated land as its main land use type. As of 2020, the proportions of various land use types in the region were as follows: cultivated land (66.4%), urban and rural construction land (15.6%), forest land (9.2%), water bodies (5.6%), grassland (3.1%), and unused land (0.1%). Influenced by the dual monsoon climate, the region has a high level of vegetation coverage and rich biodiversity, with favorable natural endowments. The major ecosystem types include cultivated vegetation, evergreen coniferous forests, deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen-deciduous mixed forests, shrubs, and grasslands. Notably, agricultural ecosystems account for up to 98.5% of the region’s vegetation30. As shown in Figs. 1 and 2a–d.Fig. 1Location of the Huaihe River Economic Belt. The map created based on the standard map service system downloaded with the review number GS (2019) 1822 has no modifications to the base map.Full size imageFig. 2Spatial distribution of the following factors in the Huaihe River Economic Belt: (a) mean annual temperature (2010–2021), (b) mean annual precipitation (2010–2021), (c) land use types in 2020, and (d) vegetation types in 2020. The map created based on the standard map service system downloaded with the review number GS (2019) 1822 has no modifications to the base map.Full size imageData sources and preprocessingNPP dataTo more accurately analyze the intra-annual variation of vegetation NPP, this study utilized the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and employed the MOD17A3HGF annual mean NPP product ((NPP_{god})), the MYD17A2H annual mean GPP product ((GPP_{god})), and the MYD17A2H 8-day cumulative GPP data ((GPP_{8}))31. Based on the following formula, we synthesized an 8-day cumulative vegetation NPP dataset ((NPP_{8})).$$begin{aligned} mathrm {NPP_8=(~GPP_8/GPP_{god})~NPP_{god}~} end{aligned}$$
    (1)
    Monthly NPP data were synthesized from (NPP_{8}) data, with the average values of March, April, and May representing spring NPP; June, July, and August for summer NPP; September, October, and November for autumn NPP; and January, February, and December for winter NPP. This approach yielded seasonal NPP average data from 2010 to 2021.Auxiliary dataTemperature (TEMP) and precipitation (PRE) data come from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center32,33, with a spatial resolution of 0.0083(^circ) and monthly temporal resolution, derived from 126 standard meteorological stations in China. Evapotranspiration (ET) data is based on the MOD16A2 product, synthesized from 8-day data into monthly intervals, with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Surface net solar radiation downwards (SSRD) and soil moisture (SM) data are sourced from the ERA5-Land monthly data set provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) from 1950 to present34. This product is a next-generation reanalysis data set based on the land surface component of ERA5 reanalysis data, with a spatial resolution of 0.1(^circ) and monthly temporal resolution. This study uses SM data at a depth of 0–7 cm. The DEM data is sourced from the GDEM V3 digital elevation model, provided by the Geospatial Data Cloud site, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The data was processed using ArcGIS 10.2, and elevation (EL) and slope (SLOPE) data were extracted using the HREB vector as the boundary. The time series for all data spans from 2010 to 2021, and to ensure data compatibility in calculations, all datasets were resampled to a spatial resolution of 500 m. The data used in this study are listed in Table 1.Table 1 Data type and source.Full size tableMethods of analysisAnalysis of changing trendsThe Theil-Sen median trend analysis method, also known as Sen’s slope estimation, is a robust non-parametric statistical approach for trend calculation based on the median slope of time series data35. This study investigates the spatiotemporal trend of seasonal mean NPP data for the Huaihe River Economic Belt (HREB) from 2010 to 2021. The calculation formula is as follows:$$begin{aligned} beta =Median{left( frac{NPP_j-NPP_i}{j-i}right) } end{aligned}$$
    (2)
    (beta) represents the trend factor; if the value is greater than 0, vegetation NPP shows an increasing trend; otherwise, it shows a decreasing trend. The larger the absolute value of (beta) , the more evident the trend. (NPP_textit{i}) and (NPP_textit{j}) represent the NPP values of time series points i and j, respectively.The Mann-Kendall (MK) test36,37 is used to perform a significance test on the spatiotemporal trend of seasonal mean NPP in the HREB from 2010 to 2022, to assess the significance level of NPP changes. The calculation formula is as follows:$$begin{aligned} S=sum _{i=1}^{n-1}sum _{j=i+1}^noperatorname {sgn}(x_j-x_i) end{aligned}$$
    (3)
    $$begin{aligned} Var(S)=frac{n(n-1)(2n+5)}{18} end{aligned}$$
    (4)
    $$begin{aligned} Z = {left{ begin{array}{ll} frac{S-1}{sqrt{text {Var}(S)}} & S > 0 \ 0 & S = 0 \ frac{S+1}{sqrt{text {Var}(S)}} & S < 0 end{array}right. } end{aligned}$$
    (5)
    The (Sgn(theta )) is the sign function; when (theta > 0), (theta = 0), and (theta < 0), the function values are 1, 0, and -1, respectively. Var() calculates the variance, Z is the statistic of the standardized test, and n is the total number of time series points. Based on seasonal NPP data from 2010 to 2021 in HREB, the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall abrupt change test were used in this study. Here, a positive (beta) indicates an increasing trend, while a negative (beta) indicates a decreasing trend. Values of (Z le 1.96), (1 < Z le 1.96), (Z > 2.58) indicate significance levels of (90%), (95%) and (99%) i.e. (p ge 0.05), (0.01 le p < 0.05) and (p <0.01), corresponding to significant and highly significant changes, respectively. The trend classifications–extremely significant increase (ESI), significant increase (SI), insignificant change (IC), stable (ST), significant decrease (SD), and extremely significant decrease (ESD)—are used to depict the seasonal NPP variation patterns of vegetation.The R/S analysis method was used to determine the persistence characteristics of vegetation NPP change trends by calculating the Hurst (H) index38, which assesses the presence of long-term trends and periodic changes. The calculation formula is as follows:Based on the seasonal mean NPP data from 2010 to 2022, the time series of each season’s NPP is denoted as (NPP_i) ((i=1,2,3,4,dots ,n)) for each year. For any positive integer m, the mean sequence of this time series is defined as:$$begin{aligned} overline{NPP}_i = frac{1}{m} sum _{j=i}^{i+m-1} NPP_j, quad i = 1,2,dots ,n-m+1 end{aligned}$$
    (6)
    where (overline{NPP}_i) represents the average NPP over m consecutive years starting from year i.$$begin{aligned} overline{NPP(m)}=frac{1}{m}sum _{i=l}^mNPP_iquad (m=1,2,3,4,cdots ,n) end{aligned}$$
    (7)
    $$begin{aligned} X(t)=sum _{i=1}^m(NPP_i-overline{NPP(m)})quad (1le tle m) end{aligned}$$
    (8)
    $$begin{aligned} R(m)=max _{lle mle n}X(t)-min _{lle mle n}X(t)quad (m=1,2,3,4,cdots ,n) end{aligned}$$
    (9)
    $$begin{aligned} S(m)=left[ frac{1}{m}sum _{i=l}^mleft( NPP_i-overline{NPP(m)}right) ^2right] ^{frac{1}{2}}(m=1,2,3,4,cdots ,n) end{aligned}$$
    (10)
    $$begin{aligned} frac{R(m)}{S(m)}=(km)^H end{aligned}$$
    (11)
    H is the Hurst index, ranging between (0, 1). If H > 0.5, it indicates persistence in the time series, suggesting a long-term correlation between consecutive data points. If H < 0.5, it indicates anti-persistence, with an inverse long-term correlation. H = 0.5 suggests that the time series is random, with no long-term correlation. In this study, the Hurst index (H) was calculated through R/S analysis, where H > 0.5, H < 0.5, and H = 0.5 correspond to persistence (P), anti-persistence (AP), and uncertainty (UN).To investigate the trends and persistence of NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt, NPP trend analysis was combined with the Hurst index to derive coupled information on trend and persistence. Six scenarios were defined for convenience: Persistent extremely significant decrease (P-ESD, 1), Persistent significant decrease (P-SD, 2), Persistent insignificant change (P-IC, 3), Persistent significant increase (P-SI, 4), and Persistent extremely significant increase (P-ESI, 5), representing persistent and meaningful changes. An additional scenario, Uncertain Change Trend (UCT, 0), was included for auxiliary discussion (Table 2). These classifications were based on the Hurst index of seasonal vegetation NPP from 2010 to 2022, characterizing the persistence of NPP change trends.Table 2 Category of NPP change trend and persistence.Full size tableSpatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR)The spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) model is based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model by incorporating a temporal dimension. Compared to the GWR model, GTWR better reveals spatiotemporal nonstationarity in data, capturing both spatial and temporal variation trends and improving the understanding of temporal evolution patterns in data, thus improving the analysis of spatiotemporal data39.This study uses data from 2010 to 2021 to investigate the relationships between NPP and temperature (TEMP), precipitation (PRE), surface net sola radiation downwards (SSRD), evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), elevation (ELV) and slope(Slope). All variables were standardized using the Z-Score method and the regression coefficients were calculated. The formula for the spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) model is as follows:$$begin{aligned} Y_{i}=beta _0left( u_{i},v_{i},t_{i}right) +sum _{k=1}^{p}beta _{k}left( u_{i},v_{i},t_{i}right) X_{ik}+varepsilon _{i},i=1,2,cdots n end{aligned}$$
    (12)
    $$begin{aligned} hat{beta }(u_i,v_i,t_i)=left[ X^TW(u_i,v_i,t_i)Xright] ^{-1}X^TW(u_i,v_i,t_i) end{aligned}$$
    (13)
    $$begin{aligned} W_{ij}=exp (-frac{d_{ij}^2}{h^2}) end{aligned}$$
    (14)
    (Y_{i}) represents the dependent variable of the i-th sample, (X_{ik}) is the observed value of the k-th independent variable at the i-th sample point, ((u_{i},v_{i})) are the spatial coordinates of sample point i, (t_i) is the time coordinate. (beta _{k}(u_{i},v_{i})) denotes the regression coefficient of the k-th independent variable at the i-th sample, and (beta _0(u_{i},v_{i})) represents the spatiotemporal intercept for sample point i. (d_{ij}) denotes distance, and h is the bandwidth, which is determined by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method.ResultsComparison of seasonal vegetation NPP and the spatial distribution of seasonal NPPFigure 3a–d illustrates that from 2010 to 2021, the seasonal NPP in the HREB exhibited an overall increasing trend, accompanied by clear seasonal differentiation. NPP values ranged from 0.47 to 101.73 ((mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month)), with mean values from highest to lowest as follows: summer (15.86 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month)), spring (14.11 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month)), autumn (8.63 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month)), and winter (2.14 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month)). The variation rates were 15.18% (spring), 8.47% (summer), 13.80% (autumn), and 126.68% (winter), indicating a significant upward trend during the winter season, which is consistent with the region’s annual vegetation coverage characteristics. From the perspective of the rate of change, between 2013 and 2014, the multi-year change rate in spring exhibited significant fluctuations, increasing from (-13.61)% in 2013 to 37.84%, showing a trend of first decreasing and then sharply increasing, with a change rate difference of 51.45%. In comparison to other seasons during this period, although the winter showed large fluctuations, the change rate remained positive, indicating a significant and continuous increase in winter vegetation NPP in 2013-2014. The autumn season, similar to spring, showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Summer exhibited the smallest fluctuation, with a steady upward trend. In the period from 2018 to 2021, the change rates of vegetation NPP in spring, summer, and autumn showed a ”V”-shaped pattern, with the lowest points occurring in 2019. Vegetation NPP in the adjacent years was higher than in 2019. In previous studies, we found that this phenomenon was mainly attributed to a significant decrease in precipitation in 2019 compared to neighboring years, which led to water scarcity negatively affecting vegetation growth. However, the change rate in winter during this period showed a slight positive trend, reflecting that the reduction in water availability may have, to some extent, promoted the increase in winter vegetation NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt.Fig. 3Comparison of vegetation NPP variation characteristics in the HREB during spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c), and winter (d) from 2010 to 2021.Full size imageThe spatial distribution of seasonal NPP averages was divided into seven classes: (0,10], (10,20], (20,40], (40,60], (60,80], (80,100], and >100. Figure 4a–d shows that high-value areas were mainly located in the eastern coastal and southern mountainous regions, with the high-value range in the eastern coastal area gradually shrinking with seasonal changes. The southern mountainous region had the widest distribution of high values in summer, and distinct differences in NPP were observed between the slopes and foothills across seasons. Low-value areas were predominantly distributed in the northern and western plains, as well as in the foothills and plains of the southern region.Fig. 4Spatial distribution of seasonal average vegetation NPP in the HREB from 2010 to 2021: spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and winter (d). The map created based on the standard map service system downloaded with the review number GS (2019) 1822 has no modifications to the base map.Full size imageVariation trend and persistence of seasonal NPPOverall, the characteristics of persistent change trends show significant spatial distribution differences across seasons, as Figs. 5a–d and 6 show. The proportion of UCT for each season is as follows: 49.85% (spring), 43.10% (summer), 49.18% (autumn), and 11.90% (winter). The change trend characteristics in winter show distinctly different patterns compared to the other three seasons: (1) The spatial proportion of areas with a statistically significant change trend is relatively large, indicating that these regions exhibit consistent seasonal NPP trends over the study period; (2) The regions exhibiting ST and those showing persistent improvement (ESI, SI) display a clear north-south spatial distribution pattern.In the northern and eastern regions, the characteristics of NPP persistence change trends are predominantly P-SI and P-ESI, accounting for 33.52% and 11.84% of the area, respectively. In the central and southern regions, the NPP persistence change trends are characterized by contiguous areas of P-IC, accounting for 42.61% of the area. In the other three seasons, NPP predominantly exhibits an overall trend of widespread stability and improvement, with small areas of degradation. In Taizhou’s northern region, a trend of persistent degradation is observed during spring, summer, and autumn. In spring, the degraded areas form an east-west belt covering the northern parts of Huainan, Chuzhou, and Taizhou, located between 32-33(^circ)N, in regions traversed by the southern tributaries of the Huaihe River.Fig. 5Spatial distribution of seasonal NPP change trends and persistence in the HREB from 2010 to 2021: spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and winter (d). The map created based on the standard map service system downloaded with the review number GS (2019) 1822 has no modifications to the base map.Full size imageFig. 6Proportions of seasonal NPP change trend persistence forms (a) and proportions of determinable change trend persistence forms (b) in the HREB.Full size imageDriver identification of seasonal NPPUsing the GTWR model, 2580 sampling points were globally selected within an ArcGIS fishnet grid. Parameter estimation was performed for seasonal sample points in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2021, yielding regression coefficients for each influencing factor at the sample points, including TEMP (X1), PRE (X2), SSRD (X3), ET (X4), SM (X5), ELV (X6), and Slope (X7), and their impact on NPP. The simulation fit derived from the GTWR model showed (R^{2}) values of 0.87 (spring), 0.81 (summer), 0.81 (autumn), and 0.85 (winter), all exceeding 0.80. These results indicate that the seven selected indicators collectively provide strong explanatory power for seasonal NPP, although model performance and applicability vary slightly among seasons. The high R² values demonstrate the reliability of the model, providing a robust basis for further analysis and interpretation of seasonal NPP dynamics.The average regression coefficients of influencing factors for each season from 2010 to 2021 across the study area indicate that the impact of each factor on vegetation NPP varies by season, as Table 3 shows. SM (X5) is the most significant factor affecting NPP across all seasons, ranked in descending order as summer, autumn, winter, and spring. The regression coefficient in summer is the highest, reaching 5.9327, suggesting peak vegetation growth during this period. The autumn coefficient is 4.4202, slightly lower than in summer, while the coefficients in winter and spring are smaller but still indicate a positive effect. TEMP (X1) and PRE (X2) exert the strongest positive influence on NPP in autumn, while in spring, they show a weaker negative influence. In summer, SSRD (X3) has the most notable negative impact on NPP, with a regression coefficient of -0.0378. ET (X4) positively influences NPP in all seasons, with the lowest regression coefficient in summer at 0.0717. ELV (X6) and Slope (X7) have relatively minor impacts overall, though seasonal differences are evident. Generally, elevation shows the most pronounced positive impact on NPP in summer, whereas slope has the smallest positive impact on NPP during this season.Table 3 Average regression coefficients of influencing factors for seasonal NPP from 2010 to 2021.Full size tableThe spatial distribution of average regression coefficients for NPP influencing factors across each season from 2010 to 2021 was obtained through point interpolation, see Fig. 7. The spatial distribution of average regression coefficients shows that TEMP (X1) primarily has a positive impact on NPP, with the proportion of positive influence increasing across seasons from spring to winter: (62.53%), (70.98%), (76.50%), and (76.72%), respectively. This positive influence expands spatially eastward. In the southern mountainous area of Lu’an, negative influence is observed across all seasons. PRE (X2) shows a greater negative influence in spring ((62.87%)) and winter ((81.04%)). In spring, the negative influence is concentrated in Henan, Anhui, and Hubei, with the strongest negative impact at the junction of Bozhou, Fuyang, and Huainan in Anhui. In winter, the negative influence region expands from the Anhui border area and, except for the northern part of Shandong and the eastern coastal area of Jiangsu, nearly covers the entire study area, extending northeast into Zhoukou in Henan. Positive influence is widespread in summer ((71.15%)) and autumn ((74.28%)), with the most significant impacts in northern and southwestern mountainous and hilly areas of Shandong. In summer, negative influence is only seen in high-altitude areas in western Pingdingshan, Zhumadian, and most of Hubei; in autumn, it is further limited to northern Shandong, northeastern Henan, northwestern Jiangsu, and northern Anhui. SSRD (X3) shows clear seasonal differences in its impact on NPP, primarily positive in spring and autumn. In spring, positive influence covers (61.38%) of the area, located in the eastern, northeastern, and southern regions, with the strongest effect in the Tongbai-Dabie Mountains of Lu’an in the south. In autumn, the positive impact increases to (72.78%), covering all areas except eastern Jiangsu and most pronounced in the southwestern mountainous and hilly regions. In summer, negative influence reaches (91.87%), covering the entire study area except the border between Shandong and Jiangsu, with the strongest negative impact in western Shandong. In winter, (73.04%) of the area shows a negative influence, as the cold climate limits photosynthesis and metabolic activity, reducing the positive effect of SSRD. ET (X4) is a positive explanatory factor in all seasons, with regression coefficients ranked from high to low in spring, autumn, winter, and summer. Spatially, in spring, ET shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, with high values in coastal and southern mountainous areas. In summer, high values appear in the northeast and southwest, with lower values in the east and northwest. In autumn, high-value areas extend southward from the region’s center, while low-value areas expand from central-western to northwestern regions. In winter, low-value areas are concentrated on the western boundary, and high values are mainly in central Anhui, particularly in the areas connecting Huaibei, Suzhou, Bengbu, Huainan, and Bozhou. SM (X5) has a notably positive influence on NPP, with the proportion of positively correlated areas exceeding negative correlations across all seasons. In spring, SM’s influence on NPP spatially forms a north-south band, decreasing from the center 116(^circ)45’ E meridian toward both sides. The positive and negative influence proportions are (51.91%) and (48.09%), respectively. Positive influence areas are located in the region’s center, spanning north to south, with high values at the northern and southern ends, while negative influence areas lie in the western mountains and eastern coast. In autumn, SM’s positive influence is the highest ((88.72%)), covering all areas except eastern Anhui and southwestern Jiangsu, with high values in southern Anhui and northern Shandong. In winter, the proportion of negative influence increases ((20.20%)), mainly in the northwestern area. ELV (X6) shows a significant negative influence in spring ((79.35%)) and winter ((89.95%)), with similar spatial distribution for positive and negative influence. Positive influence areas are in the southern mountainous and hilly regions, with a slightly larger extent in spring than winter. Positive influence areas dominate in summer and autumn, covering (95.74%) in summer, especially along the southeastern coast. Slope (X7) has a predominantly positive influence on NPP across all seasons, particularly in spring and winter, where positive influence areas account for (97.36%) and (89.55%), respectively.Fig. 7Spatial distribution of average regression coefficients of NPP influencing factors for each season in the HREB from 2010 to 2021:TEMP (a), PRE (b), SSRD (c), ET (d), SM (e), elevation (f) and slope (g). The map created based on the standard map service system downloaded with the review number GS (2019) 1822 has no modifications to the base map.Full size imageDiscussionSpatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of seasonal average NPPFrom 2010 to 2021, the seasonal differentiation of NPP in the HREB was pronounced, with high values in summer and low values in winter. NPP showed an increasing trend across all seasons, with a particularly notable increase in winter. Spatially, the eastern coastal areas and southern mountainous regions were the main high-value zones for NPP in all four seasons. In the southeastern coastal area, high-value zones were distributed in a strip along eastern Yancheng in Jiangsu Province, gradually decreasing in proportion across the seasons. The high-value zone in the southern mountains was primarily located along the Dabie Mountain range and its branches, spanning Xinyang in Henan Province and Lu’an in Anhui Province. In this region, NPP had the widest distribution in summer, with distinct differences between slopes and foothills. In spring, low-value NPP areas mainly fell within the 10-40 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month) range, distributed in the northern mountains and plains of Shandong and the plains north of the southern foothills. In summer, low-value NPP areas ranged between 20-40 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month), in patches across the northwestern and central plains. In autumn, low-value NPP areas were within the 10-20 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month) range, concentrated in Heze in Shandong and the plains of Shangqiu, Zhoukou, Luohe, and Zhumadian in Henan Province. In winter, most areas had NPP values within the 0-10 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month) range, with 10-20 (mathrm {gC/m}^{2}/month) zones appearing in the southern parts, forming continuous patches in the southern coastal area of Yancheng in Jiangsu, the border area of Zhumadian in Henan and Fuyang in Anhui, and the Dabie Mountains at the southern end of the region. The remaining high-value areas were scattered around the main tributaries of the Huaihe River.Analysis of persistent seasonal change trends in NPPThe persistent change trends of NPP show clear seasonal differences, with each season predominantly displaying trends of widespread stability and improvement, accompanied by smaller areas of degradation. Winter stands out for its sustained improvement, which contrasts noticeably with the other seasons. The future change trends in spring, summer, and autumn have substantial areas of uncertainty, accounting for 49.85%, 43.10%, and 49.18% of the total area, respectively. In winter, the proportion of areas with a certain change trend reaches 88.10%, with 45.36% showing sustained improvement the highest among all seasons, primarily in the northern part of the region. This indicates an overall increasing trend in winter NPP, and the persistence analysis suggests that future variations are likely to exhibit patterns consistent with those observed historically. In spring, the proportion of degraded areas is relatively high, forming an east-west band along the tributaries south of the Huaihe River. Notably, northern Taizhou shows a persistent degradation trend across spring, summer, and autumn, warranting close attention.Analysis of seasonal drivers of NPPThe drivers of vegetation NPP vary across seasons. SM (soil moisture) is the most significant factor across all seasons, consistent with previous findings40. SM and PRE exert a notable positive influence on NPP in summer and autumn, while SSRD and ET suppress NPP increase in summer. In summer, high vegetation cover and optimal water-heat conditions maximize photosynthesis rates, and vegetation water demand peaks41. However, excessive SSRD may lead to rapid water evaporation in plants42, and high temperatures accelerate water loss, resulting in significant positive effects of SM and PRE on NPP. In autumn, as the last growing season for vegetation in the HREB, the reduction of summer heat extends the growing period with suitable temperatures, while ample water and sunlight help sustain photosynthesis and metabolic activities. This promotes the accumulation of dry matter in vegetation, allowing nutrient reserves for the approaching winter. In spring, SM shows distinct areas of positive and negative influence. Negative impacts are more pronounced in the eastern coastal and western mountainous areas. The eastern coast, influenced by the ocean, experiences relatively humid conditions, and excess soil moisture compared to the same latitude in western Jiangsu can lead to water accumulation, resulting in poor root growth due to oxygen deficiency43. This suppresses photosynthesis and limits carbon fixation. In the western mountainous regions, slower spring warming and high vegetation cover may cause soil moisture surplus, preventing vegetation roots from fully utilizing the available water. In winter, the positive influence of TEMP has the highest proportion, while the negative influence proportions of SM, SSRD, and ELV are larger. Excessive precipitation, accompanied by increased soil moisture in low-temperature conditions, can easily cause root freezing. High-altitude areas, with relatively abundant forest resources, tend to have greater cold resistance. In contrast, the plains are mainly covered with grasslands and croplands, where the low temperatures associated with higher elevations more significantly inhibit vegetation growth in these areas44. Areas with greater slope have better drainage conditions, especially in spring and winter, where steeper slopes can effectively prevent excessive soil water accumulation and reduce the risk of root freezing in plants45.ConclusionsBased on the seasonal average NPP data for the Huaihe River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021, we applied Theil-Sen Median Trend Analysis and Mann-Kendall Test, along with R/S analysis, to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of seasonal NPP changes. Using the GTWR method, we explored the influence and spatial distribution of various factors on NPP across different seasons. The conclusions are as follows: From 2010 to 2021, the seasonal average NPP in the HREB showed a fluctuating upward trend, indicating regional vegetation recovery. Summer had the highest total NPP, while winter exhibited the fastest NPP growth. There were clear seasonal differences in spatial distribution, with high-value areas located in the eastern coastal and southern mountainous regions, and low-value areas in the northwestern and southern plains. NPP in the eastern coastal region gradually decreased with seasonal changes, and there were notable differences in NPP between the mountainous and foothill areas in the south.The spatial distribution of seasonal NPP change trends shows significant spatiotemporal differentiation. In spring, summer, and autumn, stable or improving trends dominate, with small areas of degradation, while northern Taizhou in Jiangsu Province exhibits a trend of sustained severe degradation. In winter, 35(^circ)N serves as a boundary, with a stable NPP trend across the southern part of the region. In the northern and eastern areas, NPP shows trends of mild and significant improvement, displaying a north-south differentiation in spatial distribution.Soil moisture is the dominant factor influencing NPP in the HREB, with temperature and evapotranspiration as secondary factors, emphasizing the crucial relationship between NPP and water availability. Climate, soil type, topography, and other factors interact to have a synergistic effect on regional NPP, indicating that its impact is multidimensional rather than driven by a single factor.Overall, the findings of this study underscore the importance of analyzing the dynamic change mechanisms of NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt across multiple temporal scales. This approach aids in guiding future vegetation restoration and conservation efforts, providing empirical insights and strategic guidance to promote sustainable coexistence between humans and the natural environment.

    Data availability

    Data sets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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    Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe would like to acknowledge the reviewers for their helpful comments on this paper.FundingThis research was funded by the Spatial Optimal Allocation Model of Regional Land Use Coupled with the Land System Health (252300421290), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41771438), Postgraduate Education Reform and Quality Improvement Project of Henan Province (HNYJS2020JD14).Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsSchool of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang, 464000, ChinaJiqiang Niu, Ziyu Wang, Hao Lin, Feng Xu & Luying HuangHenan Engineering Technology Research Center for Intelligent Perception and Analysis of Land Surface Ecosystem Health in Huaihe River Basin, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang, 464000, ChinaJiqiang NiuFaculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, 650500, ChinaZiyu WangDepartment of Geography, Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Bali, 81116, IndonesiaA Sediyo Adi NugrahaHenan Key Technology Engineering Research Center of Microwave Remote Sensing and Resource Environment Monitoring, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang, 464000, ChinaHao Lin & Feng XuSchool of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Faculty of Science, Monash University, Melbourne, 3800, AustraliaXuan ZhuAuthorsJiqiang NiuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarZiyu WangView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarA Sediyo Adi NugrahaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarHao LinView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarFeng XuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarLuying HuangView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarXuan ZhuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsJ.N. and Z.W. conceived the experiment, Z.W., N.A., H.L., F.X. and L.H conducted the experiment, and Z.W., J.N., N.A. and X.Z. analyzed the results. All authors reviewed the manuscript.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
    Xuan Zhu.Ethics declarations

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    The authors declare no competing interests.

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    Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleNiu, J., Wang, Z., Nugraha, A.S.A. et al. Spatial temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of net primary productivity in the Huaihe River Economic Belt on seasonal scale.
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