Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate
Saatchi, S. S. et al. Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108, 9899–9904 (2011).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Baccini, A. et al. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 182–185 (2012).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Xu, L. et al. Changes in global terrestrial live biomass over the 21st century. Sci. Adv. 7, eabe9829 (2021).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Betts, R. A. et al. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78, 157–175 (2004).Article
Google Scholar
Cox, P. M. et al. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability. Nature 494, 341–344 (2013).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Rammig, A. et al. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback. N. Phytol. 187, 694–706 (2010).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Huntingford, C. et al. Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon ‘dieback’. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 363, 1857–1864 (2008).Article
Google Scholar
Galbraith, D. et al. Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change. N. Phytol. 187, 647–665 (2010).Article
Google Scholar
Kumar, D., Pfeiffer, M., Gaillard, C., Langan, L. & Scheiter, S. Climate change and elevated CO2 favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia. Biogeosciences 18, 2957–2979 (2021).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Huntingford, C. et al. Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change. Nat. Geosci. 6, 268–273 (2013).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs. Nat. Commun. 11, 4241 (2020).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Koch, A., Hubau, W. & Lewis, S. L. Earth system models are not capturing present-day tropical forest carbon dynamics. Earths Future 9, e2020EF001874 (2021).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Knox, R. G. & Chambers, J. Q. Observed allocations of productivity and biomass, and turnover times in tropical forests are not accurately represented in CMIP5 Earth system models. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 064017 (2015).Article
Google Scholar
Fleischer, K. et al. Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition. Nat. Geosci. 12, 736–741 (2019).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Terrer, C. et al. Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 684–689 (2019).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Malhi, Y. et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106, 20610–20615 (2009).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Zelazowski, P., Malhi, Y., Huntingford, C., Sitch, S. & Fisher, J. B. Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 369, 137–160 (2011).
Google Scholar
Huang, L. et al. Drought dominates the interannual variability in global terrestrial net primary production by controlling semi-arid ecosystems. Sci. Rep. 6, 24639 (2016).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Castanho, A. D. A. et al. Potential shifts in the aboveground biomass and physiognomy of a seasonally dry tropical forest in a changing climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 034053 (2020).Article
Google Scholar
Santoro, M. & Cartus, O. ESA Biomass Climate Change Initiative (Biomass_cci): global datasets of forest above-ground biomass for the years 2010, 2017 and 2018, v3. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis https://doi.org/10.5285/5f331c418e9f4935b8eb1b836f8a91b8 (2021).Baccini, A. et al. Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss. Science 358, 230–234 (2017).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Harris, N. L. et al. Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 234–240 (2021).Article
Google Scholar
Gatti, L. V. et al. Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature 595, 388–393 (2021).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Qin, Y. et al. Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 442–448 (2021).Article
Google Scholar
Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344–348 (2015).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Hubau, W. et al. Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests. Nature 579, 80–87 (2020).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Phillips, O. L. et al. Drought sensitivity of the amazon rainforest. Science 323, 1344–1347 (2009).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Ross, C. W. et al. Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 449–455 (2021).Article
Google Scholar
Larjavaara, M., Lu, X., Chen, X. & Vastaranta, M. Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world. Carbon Balance Manag. 16, 31 (2021).Article
Google Scholar
Romps, D. M., Seeley, J. T., Vollaro, D. & Molinari, J. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming. Science 346, 851–854 (2014).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Gora, E. M., Bitzer, P. M., Burchfield, J. C., Gutierrez, C. & Yanoviak, S. P. The contributions of lightning to biomass turnover, gap formation and plant mortality in a tropical forest. Ecology 102, e03541 (2021).Article
Google Scholar
Magnabosco Marra, D. et al. Windthrows control biomass patterns and functional composition of Amazon forests. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 5867–5881 (2018).Article
Google Scholar
Negrón-Juárez, R. I. et al. Windthrow variability in central amazonia. Atmosphere 8, 28 (2017).Article
Google Scholar
Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. Persistent collapse of biomass in Amazonian forest edges following deforestation leads to unaccounted carbon losses. Sci. Adv. 6, 40 (2020).Article
Google Scholar
Yin, Y. et al. Fire decline in dry tropical ecosystems enhances decadal land carbon sink. Nat. Commun. 11, 1900 (2020).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Koch, A. & Kaplan, J. O. Tropical forest restoration under future climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 279–283 (2022).Article
Google Scholar
Wang, S. et al. Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 370, 1295–1300 (2020).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Case, M. F. & Staver, A. C. Fire prevents woody encroachment only at higher-than-historical frequencies in a South African savanna. J. Appl. Ecol. 54, 955–962 (2017).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Mau, A. C., Reed, S. C., Wood, T. E. & Cavaleri, M. A. Temperate and tropical forest canopies are already functioning beyond their thermal thresholds for photosynthesis. Forests 9, 47 (2018).Article
Google Scholar
Kolby Smith, W. et al. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 306–310 (2016).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Martens, C. et al. Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 340–358 (2021).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Doughty, C. E. & Goulden, M. L. Are tropical forests near a high temperature threshold?. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosciences 113, G00B07 (2008).Article
Google Scholar
Doughty, C. E. & Goulden, M. L. Seasonal patterns of tropical forest leaf area index and CO2 exchange. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosciences 113, G00B06 (2008).Article
Google Scholar
Langenbrunner, B., Pritchard, M. S., Kooperman, G. J. & Randerson, J. T. Why does amazon precipitation decrease when tropical forests respond to increasing CO2? Earths Future 7, 450–468 (2019).Article
Google Scholar
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).Article
Google Scholar
Maurer, E. P., Brekke, L., Pruitt, T. & Duffy, P. B. Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 88, 504–504 (2007).Article
Google Scholar
Reclamation. Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections: Release of Hydrology Projections, Comparison with preceding Information, and Summary of User Needs. https://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/techmemo/BCSD5HydrologyMemo.pdf (2014).Silva de Miranda, P. L. et al. Using tree species inventories to map biomes and assess their climatic overlaps in lowland tropical South America. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 27, 899–912 (2018).Article
Google Scholar
Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F. & Latorre, B. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 3001–3023 (2014).Article
Google Scholar
Wright, M. N. & Ziegler, A. ranger: a fast implementation of random forests for high dimensional data in C++ and R. J. Stat. Softw. 77, 1–17 (2017).Article
Google Scholar
Middleton, N., Thomas, D. & UNEP. World Atlas of Desertification (Arnold, 1997).Staver, A. C., Archibald, S. & Levin, S. A. The global extent and determinants of Savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science 334, 230–232 (2011).Article
CAS
Google Scholar
ESRI Data & Maps. World Continents Version 10.3. (2015).Uribe, M. R. et al. Net loss of biomass predicted for tropical biomes in a changing climate. Dryad https://doi.org/10.7280/D1D124 (2023). More