More stories

  • in

    Environmental conditions, diel period, and fish size influence the horizontal and vertical movements of red snapper

    Study siteThis study took place at a temperate reef called the “Chicken Rock” in waters off the coast of North Carolina, USA, between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout (Raleigh Bay; Fig. 1). The seafloor of the Chicken Rock is composed of low-relief hardbottom and sand. The Chicken Rock is approximately 37 m deep (Fig. 2) and is an ideal location for this study for three reasons. First, it has a relatively flat seafloor that allows for a high detection rate of acoustically tagged fish49. Second, a high-resolution bathymetric map was available for the area (C. Taylor, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science). Third, many red snapper occupy the area, allowing us to catch and tag fish relatively easily. Recreational and commercial fishing occurs at the Chicken Rock year-round for a variety of species, but red snapper can only be retained during short open seasons that have occurred periodically since 2010.Data collectionWe quantified the fine-scale movements and distance off bottom for red snapper using VPS (Innovasea, Nova Scotia, Canada). VPS uses a time-difference-of-arrival algorithm to determine the location of coded acoustic transmitters that have been detected by at least three submersible acoustic receivers50. Highly precise fish positions (~ 1 m resolution) are possible if time is synchronized exactly across all receivers, which is accomplished by using sync tags that are either deployed independently throughout the receiver array or built into the receivers themselves. One downside of VPS is that data are not available in real time; receivers must be physically recovered to download data, and then data have to be sent to Vemco to determine fish positions. The advantages of VPS, however, are immense, especially in providing highly precise spatial positions each time acoustic signals are emitted from transmitters. VPS has been used many times to successfully quantify demersal fish movements27,28,49,50,54, and three-dimensional movements can be determined if pressure sensors are built into transmitters23,42.We deployed an array of 20 submersible VR2AR receivers at the Chicken Rock on 17 April 2019. Receivers were deployed in three rows of seven receivers, except for a single receiver in the northeast corner of the grid. Based on previously estimated detection distances of 200–400 m49,55, receivers were separated 200 m from each other, so the entire receiver grid occupied an area of approximately 400 × 1200 m (0.48 km2; Fig. 2). Each receiver was connected to a line between a 36-kg steel weight and a 28-cm diameter plastic float with 8.8 kg of buoyancy, with each receiver positioned approximately 3 m off the seafloor. Each VR2AR included its own sync tag for time synchronization and acoustic release so receivers could be retrieved at the end of the study. A TCM-1 current probe (Lowell Instruments) was attached to each of three receiver buoys spread out across our receiver array (Fig. 2) to collect minute-by-minute current speed and bottom water temperature.We also deployed a reference transmitter (Vemco V13T-1x) in the receiver array on 17 April 2019 (Fig. 2) to calculate sound speed velocity for VPS analyses and quantify positional error of transmitters in the receiver array by comparing its known location to its estimated positions over the course of the study. The reference transmitter was connected to a line with a weight at one end and a buoy at the other, had a 550–650 s random ping interval, and operated on a frequency of 69 kHz.A total of 44 red snapper were tagged in this study. Twenty-three red snapper were tagged on 7 May 2019, nineteen were tagged on 13 August 2019, one was tagged on 30 August 2019, and one was tagged on 22 September 2019 (Table 1). Most of these red snapper (N = 43) were caught via hook-and-line using either circle or J-style hooks, but one red snapper (tagged on 30 August 2019) was caught in a baited fish trap. Fish in good condition (i.e., no visible signs of barotrauma, jaw hooked, active) were tagged externally because external attachment is fast (i.e., greatly reducing surface time56) and externally attached transmitters are detected better than surgically implanted transmitters57. The downside is that transmitter retention is typically lower for externally attached transmitters compared to surgically implanted transmitters.We tagged red snapper with Vemco V13P-1 × transmitters that were 13 mm wide, 46 mm long, weighed 13 g in air, had a 130–230 s pulse interval, a 613 d battery life, and operated on a frequency of 69 kHz. Each transmitter also contained a pressure sensor, which was used to determine the depth of fish for each acoustic signal (accuracy = 1.7 m). Before field work began, stainless steel wire (0.89-mm diameter) was wrapped around the non-transmitting end of the transmitter, glued with marine adhesive (3 M 5200), and covered in heat shrink tubing. Approximately 15 cm of stainless steel wire that extended beyond the transmitter was straightened, and the end was sharpened.Upon capture, red snapper had their head and eyes covered in a wet towel and were measured for total length (mm). The sharpened transmitter wire was inserted laterally through the dorsal musculature of the fish approximately 2.5 cm posterior to, and 2.5 cm below, the insertion of the fish’s first dorsal spine. The wire was pushed laterally through the fish until the transmitter was pulled firmly against the fish’s left side, while the sharpened end emerged from the same spot on the right side of the fish. An aluminum washer was threaded onto the protruding wire, followed by a #1 double sleeve steel crimp, which was crimped onto the wire once the washer and crimp were held firmly on the right side of the fish. The wire beyond the crimp and wet towel were removed, the fish was attached to a weighted SeaQualizer fish release tool, and the fish was descended to a depth of approximately 31 m before being released by the device. The total surface time for each tagged red snapper was approximately 1.5 min.Data analysesWe first assessed whether potential error in red snapper positions could influence study results. For each reference tag position estimated by VPS, we calculated horizontal positional error as the difference between the known reference tag location and its estimated position based on VPS. We visualized daily horizontal positional error of the reference transmitter with a boxplot. Daily values were provided to determine if any changes in positional error occurred over time.Next, we used positional and depth data from fish that were monitored to determine the fate of each individual and classified them based on four events: tag loss, emigration, harvest, or predation48. Fish were assumed to have lost transmitters if the transmitter stopped moving; they were assumed to have emigrated if the transmitter moved to the edge of the receiver array before disappearing. Harvest was assumed if fish disappeared from within the receiver array. Predation (e.g., by sharks) was inferred from VPS data in one of three ways: (1) transmitters moved horizontally much faster than normal red snapper swimming speeds, (2) transmitters moved quickly across a wide range of depths, typically from the bottom to the surface and back, and (3) a reduced frequency of detections, as might be expected for transmitters in the abdominal cavity of a shark. VPS data were censored after the point at which any fish experienced tag loss, harvest, or predation, and only fish with 100 or more spatial positions were included in the analyses.We then estimated movement rates of each fish over time. Movement rate (m s−1) was quantified as the distance moved between each successive pair of spatial positions divided by the time between detections. One challenge with using movement rates is that straight-line movements are assumed between detections, when in reality fish may not move in straight lines. Red snapper were detected on average every 2–4 min, so this issue is less of a problem in our study compared to those using longer time intervals between detections51, but our movement rates can be considered minimum estimates. To further prevent negatively biased movement rate estimates, we excluded movement rate estimates for time intervals longer than 20 min; this decision had negligible effects on results (see Discussion).We also estimated the distance off the seafloor for all detections of acoustically tagged red snapper. We calculated distance off the bottom (m) for each fish position as the depth of the seafloor at that location minus the depth of the fish. We encountered an issue with some transmitters after tag loss whereby depth readings appeared to slowly drift towards shallower readings even though the transmitter was sitting on the bottom and not moving horizontally; in a few instances, this same depth drift issue was detected for transmitters attached to fish alive in the study area (i.e., distance off bottom was greater than zero for long periods of time, which never occurred for red snapper with working pressure sensors). We do not know the reason for these rare instances of depth drift by the pressure sensors, but out of caution we censored depth data for fish whose transmitters provided dubious depth data.We evaluated whether individual differences in movement rates or distance off the bottom were apparent. We created boxplots of movement rate and distance off bottom for each fish in the study, and tested for differences among individuals using a linear model where fish number was included as a categorical variable. We compared the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values of models including fish number with an intercept-only model where fish number was excluded, and models with the lowest AIC value (ΔAIC = 0) were considered the most parsimonious formulations58. Movement rate was positively skewed, so it was log-transformed to improve model fit. Model diagnostics (i.e., quantile–quantile, histogram of residuals, residuals versus linear predictions, response versus fitted values plots) were used to confirm that final models met assumptions of equal variance and normal residuals. We used R version 3.6.359 to carry out all statistical tests and to create all figures.Ideally, we would then test for the effects of environmental conditions and fish size on red snapper horizontal and vertical movements using a single, integrated analysis. However, models accounting for temporal autocorrelation and incorporating individual movement rate estimates from each fish as the response variable (i.e., including fish number as a random effect) did not converge, possibly due to large sample sizes (N = 346,363), so we used mean hourly values instead. The downside of this approach is that fish size had to be evaluated separately from the effects of environmental conditions, as described below. However, note that covariate relationships changed very little across a wide variety of model formulations.We tested for the effects of fish size on movement rate and distance off the bottom using generalized additive models60 (GAMs). GAMs are a regression modeling approach that relate a response variable to a single or multiple predictor variables using nonlinear, linear, or categorical functions. Mean log-transformed movement rate or distance off bottom were the response variables of these models and cubic-spline-smoothed fish total length (mm) was included as the predictor variable. As above, we compared the AIC values of models including fish size with an intercept-only model where fish size was excluded, and the model with the lowest AIC value was selected as the best model.We then assessed the influence of various environmental factors (see below) on red snapper movement rate and distance off bottom using GAMs. For these analyses, choosing the appropriate time scale for binning response and predictor data was critical. Longer time steps (i.e., day) were problematic because response and predictor variables frequently varied over much shorter time frames, while extremely short time steps (i.e., minute) were often lacking response and predictor variable information. Therefore, we used an hourly time step for this procedure. The main concern of using an hourly step is that any particular hourly time bin is likely to be more similar to the time bin nearest in time compared to a randomly selected time bin; in other words, time bins are not truly independent of one another61 (i.e., data are temporally autocorrelated). Not accounting for temporal autocorrelation that is present often leads to a negative bias in estimated regression coefficients and confidence intervals. To account for temporal autocorrelation, we used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) that included an autoregressive term for model errors. We used a likelihood ratio test to compare our GAMM to a GAM that did not include autoregressive errors, and in both cases GAMMs were selected over GAMs so they were used for movement and distance off bottom models.We limited our GAMMs to five predictor variables based on previous work. The first predictor variable was time of day, which we included because red snapper movements have been shown to vary over diel periods29. We included time of day (tod) as a categorical variable with three levels: day, crepuscular period, and night. Because sunrise and sunset times varied over the course of our 8-mo study, we defined crepuscular periods as a one hour period of time spanning 30 min before sunrise or sunset to 30 min after sunrise or sunset for each day of the study. Day was defined as 30 min after sunrise to 30 min before sunset, and night was defined as 30 min after sunset to 30 min before sunrise.Bottom water temperature has been shown to be strongly correlated with red snapper movements and home range size28,29, so it was included as our second predictor variable. We calculated bottom water temperature (temp; °C) as the mean bottom temperature measured across the three current probes deployed in the receiver array. Cold bottom water temperatures were observed near the conclusion of our study (December 2019) due to declining air temperatures and water column mixing, but also during periodic upwelling events that occurred from late May through early August. Upwelling is a common oceanographic feature of the region, occurring when upwelling-favorable winds are observed concurrent with the Gulf Stream being in a relatively inshore position62,63. Upwelled water that is cold and nutrient-rich is generally only found near the bottom, which tends to cause phytoplankton blooms near the bottom that decrease water clarity. From preliminary analyses of red snapper VPS data, we observed differing behaviors of fish during periods of upwelling than periods lacking upwelling. Therefore, we developed an upwelling index as our third predictor variable, which was calculated as the difference between the surface water temperature and mean bottom water temperature (upwel; °C). Surface water temperature was not available at the study site, so we obtained hourly surface temperature data from the nearest NOAA buoy (#41159), which was located ~ 85 km southwest of the study site in a similar water depth (Fig. 1). We assume that surface water temperature at the study site could be approximated with data from this buoy, which is a reasonable assumption given surface water temperature and wave heights from this buoy were strongly correlated with values from another buoy (NOAA buoy #41025) ~ 70 km northeast of the study site.The last two predictor variables involved properties of water movement at the seafloor in the study area. The fourth predictor variable was wave orbital velocity (wov; m s−1), which is a measure of the wave-generated oscillatory flow (“sloshing”) of water at the seabed. Wave orbital velocity was included because it was much more strongly correlated with gray triggerfish (Balistes capriscus) movement rates at the Chicken Rock area than either barometric pressure or bottom water temperature43, the latter of which have been shown to be more important for organisms in shallow water64,65. Wave orbital velocity was calculated following Bacheler et al.43 using the properties of surface wave period and height, which were also obtained from NOAA buoy 41159. The last predictor variable included in models was current speed (cur; cm s−1), which was calculated as the mean horizontal current speed from the three current probes deployed on the bottom in the receiver array.The GAMMs were formulated as:$$y = upalpha + f(tod) + s_{1} (temp) + s_{2} (upwel) + s_{3}(wov) + s_{4} (cur) + varepsilon ,$$
    (1)
    where y is either acoustically tagged red snapper log-transformed movement rate (m s−1) or distance off the bottom (m), α is the intercept, f is a categorical function, s1-4 are cubic spline smoothing functions, and (varepsilon) is the autoregressive error term accounting for temporal autocorrelation in the data.We employed model selection techniques to assess the importance of predictor variables. Specifically, we compared full models that included all five predictor variables to reduced models that included fewer predictor variables. Model comparisons were made using AIC, and models with the lowest AIC value (ΔAIC = 0) were again considered the most parsimonious. Various diagnostics of final models were examined using the “gam.check” function in the mgcv library to ensure model fit was suitable.Given the importance of upwelling to the vertical movements of red snapper (see Results section), we last include results from a conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) cast taken in the study area from the NOAA Ship Pisces on 29 June 2019 (07:40 EDT), which occurred during a time when bottom upwelling was present. This CTD cast was conducted using a Sea-Bird SBE 9 deployed from the surface to within 1.5 m of the bottom, and depth-specific water temperature and beam transmission data were provided to highlight the vertical extent of upwelling on this particular day. Beam transmission is the fraction of a light source reaching a light detector set a distance away and is a quantitative measure of water clarity; a common feature of upwelling in the region (in addition to cold water) is declining clarity due to increased production within nutrient-rich, upwelled water near the bottom. We combine these water temperature and beam transmission data with a boxplot of red snapper distances off the bottom by hour throughout the same day the CTD cast was taken (29 June 2019).Ethics approvalThe tagging protocol was approved by the Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (# NCA19-002) of the North Carolina Aquariums on 20 March 2019. All research activities were carried out under a Scientific Research Permit issued to Nathan Bacheler on 10 April 2017 by the Southeast Regional Office of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations on the ethical use of animals as experimental subjects. More

  • in

    Conservation concerns associated with low genetic diversity for K’gari–Fraser Island dingoes

    1.Crowther, M. S., Fillios, M., Colman, N. & Letnic, M. An updated description of the Australian dingo (Canis dingo Meyer, 1793). J. Zool. 293(3), 192–203 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    2.Smith, B. P. et al. Taxonomic status of the Australian dingo: the case for Canis dingo Meyer, 1793. Zootaxa 4564, 173–197 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Sillero-Zubiri, C., Hoffmann, M. & Macdonald, D. W. Canids: foxes, wolves, jackals and dogs: status survey and conservation action plan. (IUCN, 2004).4.Jackson, S. M. et al. The wayward dog: is the Australian native dog or dingo a distinct species?. Zootaxa 4317, 201–224 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Cairns, K. M. What is a dingo–origins, hybridisation and identity. Aust. Zool. (2021).6.Jackson, S. M. et al. The dogma of dingoes—taxonomic status of the dingo: a reply to Smith et al. Zootaxa 4564, 198–212 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Zhang, S.-J. et al. Genomic regions under selection in the feralization of the dingoes. Nat. Commun. 11, 1–10 (2020).ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Corbett, L. The Dingo in Australia and Asia 2nd edn. (JB Books, Marleston, 2011).
    Google Scholar 
    9.Freedman, A. H. et al. Genome sequencing highlights the dynamic early history of dogs. PLoS Genet. 10, e1004016 (2014).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Savolainen, P., Leitner, T., Wilton, A. N., Matisoo-Smith, E. & Lundeberg, J. A detailed picture of the origin of the Australian dingo, obtained from the study of mitochondrial DNA. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 12387–12390 (2004).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Milham, P. & Thompson, P. Relative antiquity of human occupation and extinct fauna at Madura Cave, southeastern Western Australia. Mankind 10, 175–180 (1976).
    Google Scholar 
    12.Savolainen, P., Zhang, Y.-P., Luo, J., Lundeberg, J. & Leitner, T. Genetic evidence for an East Asian origin of domestic dogs. Science 298, 1610–1613 (2002).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    13.Ardalan, A. et al. Narrow genetic basis for the Australian dingo confirmed through analysis of paternal ancestry. Genetica 140, 65–73 (2012).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    14.Wright, J. & Lambert, D. Australia’s first dingo. Australas. Sci. 36, 34–36 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    15.Fillios, M. A. & Taçon, P. S. Who let the dogs in? A review of the recent genetic evidence for the introduction of the dingo to Australia and implications for the movement of people. J. Archaeol. Sci. Rep. 7, 782–792 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    16.Brown, S. K. et al. Phylogenetic distinctiveness of middle eastern and southeast Asian Village Dog Y chromosomes illuminates dog origins. PLoS ONE 6, e28496. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028496 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Brink, H. et al. Pets and pests: a review of the contrasting economics and fortunes of dingoes and domestic dogs in Australia, and a proposed new funding scheme for non-lethal dingo management. Wildl. Res. 46, 365–377 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    18.Corbett, L. Canis lupus ssp. dingo. IUCN 2010. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2010.4 (2010).19.Burns, G. L. & Howard, P. When wildlife tourism goes wrong: a case study of stakeholder and management issues regarding Dingoes on Fraser Island, Australia. Tourism Manag. 24, 699–712 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Archer-Lean, C., Wardell-Johnson, A., Conroy, G. & Carter, J. Representations of the dingo: contextualising iconicity. Australas. J. Environ. Manag. 22, 181–196 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Letnic, M., Koch, F., Gordon, C., Crowther, M. S. & Dickman, C. R. Keystone effects of an alien top-predator stem extinctions of native mammals. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 276, 3249–3256 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    22.Letnic, M., Crowther, M., Dickman, C. R. & Ritchie, E. G. Demonising the dingo: How much wild dogma is enough?. Curr. Zool. 57, 668–670 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    23.Letnic, M., Ritchie, E. G. & Dickman, C. R. Top predators as biodiversity regulators: the dingo Canis lupus dingo as a case study. Biol. Rev. 87, 390–413. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00203.x (2012).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    24.Colman, N., Gordon, C., Crowther, M. & Letnic, M. Lethal control of an apex predator has unintended cascading effects on forest mammal assemblages. Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 281, 20133094 (2014).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Wallach, A. D., Johnson, C. N., Ritchie, E. G. & O’Neill, A. J. Predator control promotes invasive dominated ecological states. Ecol. Lett. 13, 1008–1018 (2010).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Glen, A. S., Dickman, C. R., Soule, M. E. & Mackey, B. Evaluating the role of the dingo as a trophic regulator in Australian ecosystems. Aust. Ecol. 32, 492–501 (2007).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    27.Johnson, C. N., Isaac, J. L. & Fisher, D. O. Rarity of a top predator triggers continent-wide collapse of mammal prey: dingoes and marsupials in Australia. Pro. R. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 274, 341–346 (2007).
    Google Scholar 
    28.Johnson, C. N. & Ritchie, E. G. The dingo and biodiversity conservation: response to Fleming et al. (2012). Aust. Mammal. 35, 8–14 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    29.Thom, B. & Chappell, J. Vol. 6 90–93 (CONTROL PUBL PTY LTD 14 ARCHERON ST, DONCASTER VIC 3108, AUSTRALIA, 1975).30.Wardell-Johnson, G. et al. Re-framing values for a World Heritage future: what type of icon will K’gari-Fraser Island become?. Australas. J. Environ. Manag. 22, 124–148 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    31.Corbett, L. Management of Dingoes on Fraser Island (ERA Environmental Services, 1998).
    Google Scholar 
    32.Appleby, R., Mackie, J., Smith, B., Bernede, L. & Jones, D. Human–dingo interactions on Fraser Island: an analysis of serious incident reports. Aust. Mammal. 40, 146–156 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    33.Allen, B., Boswell, J. & Higginbottom, K. Fraser Island Dingo Management Strategy Review: Report to Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (Ecosure Pty Ltd, 2012).
    Google Scholar 
    34.O’Neill, A. J., Cairns, K. M., Kaplan, G. & Healy, E. Managing dingoes on Fraser Island: culling, conflict, and an alternative. Pac. Conserv. Biol. 23, 4–14 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    35.Conroy, G., Lamont, R., Bridges, L. & Ogbourne, S. (University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia, 2016).36.Appleby, R. & Jones, D. Analysis of Preliminary Dingo Capture-Mark-Recapture Experiment on Fraser Island: final Report to Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service (Griffith University, Brisbane, 2011).
    Google Scholar 
    37.England, P. R., Usher, A. V., Whelan, R. J. & Ayre, D. J. Microsatellite diversity and genetic structure of fragmented populations of the rare, fire-dependent shrub Grevillea macleayana. Mol. Ecol. 11, 967–977 (2002).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    38.Frankham, R., Briscoe, D. A. & Ballou, J. D. Introduction to Conservation GENETICS (Cambridge University Press, 2002).Book 

    Google Scholar 
    39.Frankham, R. Genetics and extinction. Biol. Conserv. 126, 131–140 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    40.Lowe, A., Harris, S. & Ashton, P. Ecological Genetics: Design, Analysis, and Application (Wiley, 2009).
    Google Scholar 
    41.How, R., Spencer, P. & Schmitt, L. Island populations have high conservation value for northern Australia’s top marsupial predator ahead of a threatening process. J. Zool. 278, 206–217 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    42.Elledge, A. E., Leung, L. K. P., Allen, L. R., Firestone, K. & Wilton, A. N. Assessing the taxonomic status of dingoes (Canis familiaris dingo) for conservation. Mammal Rev. 36, 142–156. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2907.2006.00086.x (2006).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    43.Oskarsson, M. C. et al. Mitochondrial DNA data indicate an introduction through Mainland Southeast Asia for Australian dingoes and Polynesian domestic dogs. Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. rspb20111395 (2011).44.Wilton, A. N. in A Symposium on the Dingo. Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, Mossman NSW. 49–56.45.Elledge, A. E., Allen, L. R., Carlsson, B., Wilton, A. N. & Leung, L. K. An evaluation of genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual appearance for assessing dingo purity: implications for dingo conservation. Wildl. Res. 35, 812–820. https://doi.org/10.1071/WR07056 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    46.Stephens, D. The Molecular Ecology of Australian Wild Dogs: Hybridisation, Gene Flow and Genetic Structure at Multiple Geographic Scales. Ph.D. thesis, The University of Western Australia (2011).47.Wilton, A., Steward, D. & Zafiris, K. Microsatellite variation in the Australian dingo. J. Hered. 90, 108–111. https://doi.org/10.1093/jhered/90.1.108 (1999).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Irion, D. N., Schaffer, A. L., Grant, S., Wilton, A. N. & Pedersen, N. C. Genetic variation analysis of the Bali street dog using microsatellites. BMC Genet. 6, 1 (2005).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    49.Cairns, K. M., Shannon, L. M., Koler-Matznick, J., Ballard, J. W. O. & Boyko, A. R. Elucidating biogeographical patterns in Australian native canids using genome wide SNPs. PLoS ONE 13, e0198754 (2018).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    50.Frankel, O. & Soulé, M. E. Conservation and Evolution (CUP Archive, 1981).
    Google Scholar 
    51.Hamrick, J. L., Godt, M. J. W. & Sherman-Broyles, S. L. Population Genetics of Forest Trees 95–124 (Springer, 1992).52.Falk, D. A., Knapp, E. E. & Guerrant, E. O. An introduction to restoration genetics. Soc. Ecol. Restor. 13, 1–33 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    53.Altermatt, F., Pajunen, V. I. & Ebert, D. Climate change affects colonization dynamics in a metacommunity of three Daphnia species. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 1209–1220 (2008).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    54.Cairns, K. Population differentiation in the dingo: biogeography and molecular ecology of the Australian Native Dog using maternal, paternal and autosomal genetic markers. Ph.D. thesis, The University of New South Wales (2014).55.Ding, Z. et al. Origins of domestic dog in Southern East Asia is supported by analysis of Y-chromosome DNA. Heredity 108, 507–514 (2012).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Frankham, R. Do island populations have less genetic variation than mainland populations?. Heredity 78, 311–327 (1997).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    57.Eldridge, M., Kinnear, J., Zenger, K., McKenzie, L. & Spencer, P. Genetic diversity in remnant mainland and “pristine” island populations of three endemic Australian macropodids (Marsupialia): Macropus eugenii, Lagorchestes hirsutus and Petrogale lateralis. Conserv. Genet. 5, 325–338 (2004).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    58.Mills, H. R., Moro, D. & Spencer, P. Conservation significance of island versus mainland populations: a case study of dibblers (Parantechinus apicalis) in Western Australia. Anim. Conserv. 7, 387–395 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    59.Boessenkool, S., Taylor, S. S., Tepolt, C. K., Komdeur, J. & Jamieson, I. G. Large mainland populations of South Island robins retain greater genetic diversity than offshore island refuges. Conserv. Genet. 8, 705–714 (2007).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    60.Carmichael, L. E. et al. Northwest passages: conservation genetics of Arctic Island wolves. Conserv. Genet. 9, 879–892 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    61.Cardoso, M. J. et al. Effects of founder events on the genetic variation of translocated island populations: implications for conservation management of the northern quoll. Conserv. Genet. 10, 1719–1733 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    62.Spencer, P., Sandover, S., Nihill, K., Wale, C. & How, R. Living in isolation: ecological, demographic and genetic patterns in northern Australiaâ s top marsupial predator on Koolan Island. Aust. Mammal. 39, 17–27 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Allen, B., Higginbottom, K., Bracks, J., Davies, N. & Baxter, G. Balancing dingo conservation with human safety on Fraser Island: the numerical and demographic effects of humane destruction of dingoes. Aust. J. Environ. Manag. 22, 197–215 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    64.Frankham, R. Inbreeding and extinction: island populations. Conserv. Biol. 12, 665–675 (1998).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    65.Marie, A. D. et al. Implications for management and conservation of the population genetic structure of the wedge clam Donax trunculus across two biogeographic boundaries. Sci. Rep. 6, 39152 (2016).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    66.Jamieson, I. G. & Allendorf, F. W. How does the 50/500 rule apply to MVPs?. Trends Ecol. Evol. 27, 578–584 (2012).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Frankham, R., Bradshaw, C. J. & Brook, B. W. Genetics in conservation management: revised recommendations for the 50/500 rules, Red List criteria and population viability analyses. Biol. Conserv. 170, 56–63 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    68.Petrie, R. Early Days on Fraser Island 1913–1922 (Go Bush Safaris, 1996).
    Google Scholar 
    69.Catling, P., Corbett, L. & Newsome, A. Reproduction in captive and wild dingoes (Canis familiaris dingo) in temperate and arid environments of Australia. Wildl. Res. 19, 195–209 (1992).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    70.Thompson, J., Shirreffs, L. & McPhail, I. Dingoes on Fraser Island—tourism dream or management nightmare. Hum. Dimens. Wildl. 8, 37–47 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    71.Government, Q. (ed.) Department of Environment and Heritage Protection Ecosystem Services (Brisbane, State of Queensland, 2013).
    Google Scholar 
    72.Ivanova, N. V., Dewaard, J. R. & Hebert, P. D. An inexpensive, automation-friendly protocol for recovering high-quality DNA. Mol. Ecol. Notes 6, 998–1002 (2006).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    73.Murphy, C. et al. Genetic diversity and structure of the threatened striped legless lizard, Delma impar: management implications for the species and a translocated population. Conserv. Genet. 20, 245–257 (2019).MathSciNet 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    74.Lamont, R., Conroy, G., Reddell, P. & Ogbourne, S. Population genetic analysis of a medicinally significant Australian rainforest tree, Fontainea picrosperma CT White (Euphorbiaceae): biogeographic patterns and implications for species domestication and plantation establishment. BMC Plant Biol. 16, 57 (2016).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    75.Van Oosterhout, C., Hutchinson, W. F., Wills, D. P. & Shipley, P. MICRO-CHECKER: software for identifying and correcting genotyping errors in microsatellite data. Mol. Ecol. Notes 4, 535–538 (2004).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    76.Kalinowski, S. T. & Taper, M. L. Maximum likelihood estimation of the frequency of null alleles at microsatellite loci. Conserv. Genet. 7, 991–995 (2006).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    77.Peakall, R. & Smouse, P. E. GENALEX 6: genetic analysis in Excel. Population genetic software for teaching and research. Mol. Ecol. Notes 6, 288–295 (2006).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    78.Goudet, J. J. FSTAT version 2.9.3.2., updated from Goudet (1995). FSTAT: a computer program to calculate F-statistics. J. Hered. 86, 485–486 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    79.Dąbrowski, M., Bornelöv, S., Kruczyk, M., Baltzer, N. & Komorowski, J. ‘True’null allele detection in microsatellite loci: a comparison of methods, assessment of difficulties and survey of possible improvements. Mol. Ecol. Resour. 15, 477–488 (2015).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    80.Kalinowski, S. T. HP-Rare: a computer program for performing rarefaction on measures of allelic richness. Mol. Ecol. Notes 5, 187–189 (2005).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    81.Piry, S., Luikart, G. & Cornuet, J. M. BOTTLENECK: a computer program for detecting recent reductions in the effective population size using allele frequency data. J. Hered. 90, 502–503 (1999).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    82.Luikart, G. & Cornuet, J. M. Empirical evaluation of a test for identifying recently bottlenecked populations from allele frequency data. Conserv. Biol. 12, 228–237 (1998).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    83.Zhang, L. et al. Population structure and genetic differentiation of tea green leafhopper, Empoasca (Matsumurasca) onukii, in China based on microsatellite markers. Sci. Rep. 9, 1202 (2019).ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    84.Do, C. et al. NeEstimator v2: re-implementation of software for the estimation of contemporary effective population size (Ne) from genetic data. Mol. Ecol. Resour. 14, 209–214 (2014).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    85.Waples, R. S. Evaluation of a Genetic Method for Estimating Contemporary Population Size in Cetaceans Based on Linkage Disequilibrium (Citeseer, 2006).
    Google Scholar 
    86.Nei, M. Estimation of average heterozygosity and genetic distance from a small number of individuals. Genetics 89, 583–590 (1978).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    87.Excoffier, L., Smouse, P. E. & Quattro, J. M. Analysis of molecular variance inferred from metric distances among DNA haplotypes: application to human mitochondrial DNA restriction data. Genetics 131, 479–491 (1992).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    88.Pritchard, J., Stephens, M. & Donnelly, P. Inference of population structure using multilocus genotype data. Genet. Soc. Am. 155, 945–959 (2000).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    89.Evanno, G., Regnaut, S. & Goudet, J. Detecting the number of clusters of individuals using the software STRUCTURE: a simulation study. Mol. Ecol. 14, 2611–2620 (2005).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    90.Earl, D. A. STRUCTURE HARVESTER: a website and program for visualizing STRUCTURE output and implementing the Evanno method. Conserv. Genet. Resour. 4, 359–361 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    91.Jakobsson, M. & Rosenberg, N. A. CLUMPP: a cluster matching and permutation program for dealing with label switching and multimodality in analysis of population structure. Bioinformatics 23, 1801–1806 (2007).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    92.Rosenberg, N. A. DISTRUCT: a program for the graphical display of population structure. Mol. Ecol. Notes 4, 137–138 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Visual marking in mammals first proved by manipulations of brown bear tree debarking

    Among the many groups of terrestrial species, our understanding of mammal visual signalling might be hampered by the fact that most research on mammals has focused on chemical (e.g., scat, urine, and glands) and acoustic (e.g., howling) signalling1,2. Instead2,3, visual communication might be an overlooked communication channel2,4, despite being perhaps as important as the others, if we consider that: (1) mammal coloration has evolved for inter- and intraspecific communication2,4,5,6,7, which means that mammals use visual signals to communicate; and (2) visual signalling through physical marks (e.g., bites and scratches) is permanent and, thus, has the obvious advantages of (a) being long-lasting, i.e., environmental factors such as rain or snow are less likely to affect the detectability of visual marks as compared to, e.g., chemical signalling8, although mammals have found strategies to make chemical signalling last as long as possible9, and (b) functioning remotely, i.e., even when the signaller is away from the marked location2. Visual marking may also allow individuals to reduce repeated visits to strategic marking points, and thus save time and energy, which would otherwise detract animals from other activities, like foraging and reproduction10. Therefore, visual signalling may represent a reliable and advantageous communication channel8.Solitary species like bears may benefit from advertising their location, size, and reproductive status to expedite mate selection during the breeding season. Moreover, brown bears usually occur at low densities across their range, making direct interactions with one another infrequent11,12. Thus, long-lasting visual signalling may be particularly effective and considerably time saving. To date, studies on bear communication have highlighted two main forms of communication10,13,14,15,16,17: (1) olfactory communication, i.e., the marking of focal trees by rubbing the body against the trunk and/or by urination and deposition of anogenital gland secretions; and (2) pedal marking, by which bears mark the ground with their scent by grinding their feet into the substrate. Auditory communication, e.g., vocalizations used as threats during agonistic encounters, to advertise sexual receptivity, or for communication between females and their cubs, is considered as the least important channel through which bears signal, whereas visual communication has always been considered limited to different forms of body postures or behavioural displays (but see18).Since the beginning of the 1980s, bear marks on trees have puzzled researchers8. The function of, and motivation behind, tree biting and clawing have prompted a variety of theories related to glandular scent deposition (i.e., chemical signalling), but none of these hypotheses has been considered satisfactory, nor have they ever been tested8.
    The debarking behaviour of brown bears Ursus arctos, which leaves bright and conspicuous marks on tree trunks (see Extended Data Fig. 1 and Extended Data Fig. 2), presents a unique yet unexplored opportunity to investigate new ways of visual communication in terrestrial mammals, and to better understand both bear and carnivore communication broadly. The hypothesis behind this experimental work is that brown bears may rely on visual communication via the conspicuous marks that they produce on trees.Figure 1Brown bear response to trunk mark manipulation. The behavioural sequence of an adult male brown bear removing the pieces of bark that we used to conceal the visual markings on an ash tree during the mating season in the Cantabrian Mountains, Spain (12/06/2020, 15h37). The whole sequence is shown in the video footage Extended Data Fig. 5.Full size imageAfter manipulating bear tree marks in the Cantabrian Mountains (north-western Spain), we found that bears removed the bark strips that we used to cover their marks during the mating season (Extended Data Figs. 3 and 4), suggesting that bear debarking may represent a visual communication channel used for intraspecific communication.Brown bear responses to marked tree manipulationsAfter concealing bear marks due to trunk debarking with bark strips from the same tree species (see “Methods”), our manipulations on 20 trees triggered a rapid reaction from brown bears. Between the 16th of May and the end of September 2020 (overlapping part of the brown bear mating period in the Cantabrian Mountains19), brown bears removed the strips of bark that we used to cover the trunk marks in 9 (45%) out of the 20 manipulated trunks (Fig. 1 and Extended Data Fig. 5). However, if we consider that these nine trees were also the ones that we could manipulate (because of field work restrictions due to COVID-19) from the start of the mating season (beginning of May), 100% of the bark strips used to cover tree marks were removed by bears when the manipulation occurred at the commencement of the mating season. In only one case, a bear removed the bark strips covering marks on a tree that was manipulated later in the mating season (end of June). Control bark strips fixed to (a) the same trunk as the manipulated bear mark, (b) the nearest neighbouring tree to the manipulated one showing bear marks, and (c) the nearest rubbing trees with no bear marks, were never removed by bears. In two cases (50%), after the first removal of the manipulated mark by a bear, which was subsequently covered again with new strips (n = 4), a bear removed the strips a second time. Further, camera traps showed that: (1) bears uncovered the manipulated marks the first time they visited the tree after our manipulation; (2) bark strips that were not removed were always the result of bears not visiting the site after tree manipulations; and (3) the shortest lapse of time between a mark manipulation and a bear visiting the tree for the first time and uncovering the mark was seven days. Thus, manipulations always triggered a rapid response from bears when adult males, probably the same individuals that debarked the trunks, came back and check on marked trees.Conspicuousness of brown bear visual marksThe conspicuousness of a visual signal is not only increased by its position in a noticeable location, but also by the contrast between the signal and its background20,21. A remarkable difference (pixel intensity: mean (± SD) = 85.09 ± 26.77, range = 20.27–177.06) exists between bark and sapwood brightness for all tree species (t = 19.07, p =   More

  • in

    Lagged recovery of fish spatial distributions following a cold-water perturbation

    1.Chen, I. C., Hill, J. K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024–1026 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    2.Lenoir, J. & Svenning, J. C. Climate-related range shifts—a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions. Ecography (Cop.) 38, 15–28 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Poloczanska, E. S. et al. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 919–925 (2013).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    4.Dulvy, N. K. et al. Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. J. Appl. Ecol. 45, 1029–1039 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Cheung, W. W. L. et al. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish Fish. 10, 235–251 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Chuine, I. Why does phenology drive species distribution? Philos. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 365, 3149–3160 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Pörtner, H. Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals. Naturwissenschaften 88, 137–146 (2001).ADS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E. & Dulvy, N. K. Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 686–690 (2012).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Gilman, S. E., Urban, M. C., Tewksbury, J., Gilchrist, G. W. & Holt, R. D. A framework for community interactions under climate change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25, 325–331 (2010).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Fey, S. B. et al. Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 3110–3120 (2019).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Pinsky, M., Worm, B., Fogarty, M., Sarmiento, J. & Levin, S. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341, 1239–1242 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    12.Burrows, M. T. et al. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334, 652–656 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    13.Harley, C. D. G. & Paine, R. T. Contingencies and compounded rare perturbations dictate sudden distributional shifts during periods of gradual climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 11172–11176 (2009).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    14.Ummenhofer, C. C. & Meehl, G. A. Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 372, 1–13 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    15.Wernberg, T. et al. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem. Science 353, 169–172 (2015).ADS 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    16.Smith, K. A., Dowling, C. E. & Brown, J. Simmered then boiled: multi-decadal poleward shift in distribution by a temperate fish accelerates during marine heatwave. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 1–16 (2019).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Kerr, L. A. et al. Lessons learned from practical approaches to reconcile mismatches between biological population structure and stock units of marine fish. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 74, 1708–1722 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    18.Davies, R. W. D. & Rangeley, R. Banking on cod: exploring economic incentives for recovering Grand Banks and North Sea cod fisheries. Mar. Policy 34, 92–98 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Dempsey, D. P., Koen-Alonso, M., Gentleman, W. C. & Pepin, P. Compilation and discussion of driver, pressure, and state indicators for the Grand Bank ecosystem, Northwest Atlantic. Ecol. Indic. 75, 331–339 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Dempsey, D. P., Gentleman, W. C., Pepin, P. & Koen-Alonso, M. Explanatory power of human and environmental pressures on the fish community of the Grand Bank before and after the biomass collapse. Front. Mar. Sci. 5, 1–16 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Hutchinson, G. Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symp. Quant. Biol. 22, 415–427 (1957).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    22.Garrison, L. & Link, J. Fishing effects on spatial distribution and trophic guild structure of the fish community in the Georges Bank region. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 723–730 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    23.Hsieh, C., Yamauchi, A., Nakazawa, T. & Wang, W. F. Fishing effects on age and spatial structures undermine population stability of fishes. Aquat. Sci. 72, 165–178 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    24.Borregaard, M. & Rahbek, C. Causality of the relationship between geographic distribution and species abundance. Q. Rev. Biol. 85, 3–25 (2010).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Matthysen, E. Density-dependent dispersal in birds and mammals. Ecography (Cop.) 28, 403–416 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Thorson, J. T., Rindorf, A., Gao, J., Hanselman, D. & Winker, H. Density-dependent changes in effective area occupied for bottom-associated marine fishes. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 283, 20161853 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    27.MacCall, A. Dynamic Geography of Marine Fish Populations (Washington Sea Grant Program, 1990).
    Google Scholar 
    28.Myers, R. A. & Stokes, K. Density-dependent habitat utilization of groundfish and the improvement of research survey. In ICES Committee Meeting D15 (1989).29.Simpson, M. R. & Walsh, S. J. Changes in the spatial structure of Grand Bank yellowtail flounder: testing MacCall’s basin hypothesis. J. Sea Res. 51, 199–210 (2004).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    30.Colbourne, E., Narayanan, S. & Prinsenberg, S. Climatic changes and environmental conditions in the Northwest Atlantic, 1970–1993. ICES J. Mar. Sci. Symp. 198, 311–322 (1994).
    Google Scholar 
    31.Scheffer, M. & Carpenter, S. R. Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18, 648–656 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    32.Pascual, M. & Guichard, F. Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 88–95 (2005).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    33.Walsh, S. J., Simpson, M. & Morgan, M. J. Continental shelf nurseries and recruitment variability in American plaice and yellowtail flounder on the Grand Bank: insights into stock resiliency. J. Sea Res. 51, 271–286 (2004).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    34.Allen, C. R. et al. Quantifying spatial resilience. J. Appl. Ecol. 53, 625–635 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    35.Revilla, E. & Wiegand, T. Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 19120–19125 (2008).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    36.Hastings, A. & Botsford, L. W. Persistence of spatial populations depends on returning home. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103, 6067–6072 (2006).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    37.Vuilleumier, S., Wilcox, C., Cairns, B. J. & Possingham, H. P. How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence. Theor. Popul. Biol. 72, 77–85 (2007).PubMed 
    MATH 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    38.Kallimanis, A. S., Kunin, W. E., Halley, J. M. & Sgardelis, S. P. Metapopulation extinction risk under spatially autocorrelated disturbance. Conserv. Biol. 19, 534–546 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    39.Eliason, E. J. et al. Differences in thermal tolerance among sockeye salmon populations. Science 332, 109–112 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    40.Sorte, C. J. B., Jones, S. J. & Miller, L. P. Geographic variation in temperature tolerance as an indicator of potential population responses to climate change. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 400, 209–217 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    41.Davis, M. B. & Shaw, R. G. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292, 673–679 (2001).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    42.Valladares, F. et al. The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change. Ecol. Lett. 17, 1351–1364 (2014).PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    43.Morin, P. Communities: basic patterns and elementary processes. In Community Ecology 1–23 (Blackwell Science, 2011).44.Noble, I. & Slatyer, R. The use of vital attributes to predict successional changes in plant communities subject to recurrent disturbances. Vegetatio 43, 5–21 (1980).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    45.Connell, J. H. & Slatyer, R. O. Mechanisms of succession in natural communities and their role in community stability and organization. Am. Nat. 111, 1119–1144 (1977).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    46.Mullowney, D. R. J., Dawe, E. G., Colbourne, E. B. & Rose, G. A. A review of factors contributing to the decline of Newfoundland and Labrador snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio). Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24, 639–657 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    47.Morin, P. Causes and consequences of diversity. In Community Ecology 283–318 (Blackwell Science, 2011).48.Rietkerk, B. M., Dekker, S. C., De Ruiter, P. C. & Van De Koppel, J. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Science 305, 1926–1929 (2004).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    49.Alexander, J. M., Diez, J. M., Hart, S. P. & Levine, J. M. When climate reshuffles competitors: a call for experimental macroecology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 31, 831–841 (2016).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    50.Guisan, A. et al. Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol. Lett. 16, 1424–1435 (2013).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    51.Wheeland, L. J. & Morgan, M. J. Age-specific shifts in Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) distribution in response to changing ocean climate. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 77, 230–240 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    52.Runge, C. A., Tulloch, A. I. T., Possingham, H. P., Tulloch, V. J. D. & Fuller, R. A. Incorporating dynamic distributions into spatial prioritization. Divers. Distrib. 22, 332–343 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    53.Van Teeffelen, A. J. A., Vos, C. C. & Opdam, P. Species in a dynamic world: consequences of habitat network dynamics on conservation planning. Biol. Conserv. 153, 239–253 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    54.Shepard, S., Greenstreet, S., Piet, G., Rindorf, A. & Dickey-Collas, M. Surveillance indicators and their use in implementation of the marine strategy framework directive. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 72, 2269–2277 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    55.Link, J. S., Nye, J. A. & Hare, J. A. Guidelines for incorporating fish distribution shifts into a fisheries management context. Fish Fish. 12, 461–469 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Ockendon, N. et al. Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2221–2229 (2014).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    57.Araújo, M. B. & Luoto, M. The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 743–753 (2007).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    58.Healey, B., Brodie, W., Ings, D. & Power, D. Performance and description of Canadian multi-species surveys in NAFO subarea 2+ Divisions 3KLMNO, with emphasis on 2009–2011. Scientific Council Reports (2012).59.Doubleday, W. Manual on groundfish surveys in the Northwest Atlantic. Scientific Council Studies (1981).60.Hiemstra, P. Automatic interpolation package. (2015).61.Oliver, M. A. & Webster, R. Basic Steps in Geostatistics: The Variogram and Kriging (Springer, 2015).
    Google Scholar 
    62.Thorson, J. T. Guidance for decisions using the vector autoregressive spatio-temporal (VAST) package in stock, ecosystem, habitat and climate assessments. Fish. Res. 210, 143–161 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Thorson, J. T. VAST model structure and user interface. 1–19 (2019).64.Thorson, J. T., Shelton, A. O., Ward, E. J. & Skaug, H. J. Geostatistical delta-generalized linear mixed models improve precision for estimated abundance indices for West Coast groundfishes. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 72, 1297–1310 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    65.Thorson, J. T. Three problems with the conventional delta-model for biomass sampling data, and a computationally efficient alternative. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 75, 1369–1382 (2017).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    66.Shackell, N. L., Frank, K. T. & Brickman, D. W. Range contraction may not always predict core areas: an example from marine fish. Ecol. Appl. 15, 1440–1449 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Swain, D. P. & Morin, R. Relationships between geographic distribution and abundance of American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Oceanogr. Lit. Rev. 11, 1155 (1996).
    Google Scholar 
    68.Kristensen, K., Nielsen, A., Berg, C. W., Skaug, H. & Bell, B. TMB: automatic differentiation and Laplace approximation. J. Stat. Softw. 70, 21 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    69.R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. (2018).70.Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. & Walker, B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591–596 (2001).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    71.Pebesma, E. & Bivand, R. Classes and methods for spatial data in R. (2005).72.Bivand, R., Keitt, T. & Rowlingson, B. rgdal: Bindings for the ‘Geospatial’ Data Abstraction Library (2019).73.Hijmans, R. J. raster: Geographic Data Analysis and Modeling. (2016).74.Pante, E. marmap: a package for importing, plotting and analyzing bathymetric and topographic data in R. PLoS ONE 8, e73051 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    75.Murrell, P. gridBase: Integration of Base and Grid Graphics (2014).76.Bivand, R. S. & Lewin-Koh, N. maptools: Tools for Handling Spatial Objects (2019).77.Wickham, H. ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis (2009).78.Thorson, J. T. & Barnett, L. A. K. Comparing estimates of abundance trends and distribution shifts using single- and multispecies models of fishes and biogenic habitat. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 74, 1311–1321 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    79.Nychka, D., Furrer, R. & Paige, J. & Sain. S. Fields: Tools for spatial data. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6W957CT (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    80.Neuwirth, E. RColorBrewer: ColorBrewer Palettes. (2014). More

  • in

    Author Correction: WOODIV, a database of occurrences, functional traits, and phylogenetic data for all Euro-Mediterranean trees

    These authors contributed equally: Anne-Christine Monnet, Kévin Cilleros, Agathe Leriche.Aix Marseille Univ, Avignon Univ, CNRS, IRD, IMBE. Technopôle de l’Arbois-Méditerranée, cedex 4, BP 80, 13 545, Aix-en-Provence, FranceAnne-Christine Monnet, Kévin Cilleros, Frédéric Médail, Manuel Cartereau, Aggeliki Doxa, Daniel Pavon & Agathe LericheInstitut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle (MNHN), CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE, Université des Antilles, Paris, FranceMarwan Cheikh AlbassatnehDepartment of Plant Biology and Ecology, University of Seville, Seville, SpainJuan Arroyo, Marcial Escudero & Estefania Santos BareaDepartment of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Cagliari, Viale Sant’Ignazio da Laconi 13, Cagliari, ItalyGianluigi BacchettaNational Research Council, Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources, 50019, Sesto Fiorentino, (FI), ItalyFrancesca Bagnoli, Ilaria Spanu & Giovanni Giuseppe VendraminDepartment of Botany, Hungarian Natural History Museum, Pf. 137, Budapest, 1431, HungaryZoltán BarinaFRB-CESAB, 5 rue de l’Ecole de Médecine, 34000, Montpellier, FranceNicolas CasajusDepartment of Biology, Laboratory of Botany, University of Patras, 26504, Patras, GreecePanayotis DimopoulosDepartment of Agriculture, Food and Forest Sciences, University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze bldg. 4, 90128, Palermo, ItalyGianniantonio DominaStatistical Learning Lab, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), Ν. Plastira 100, Vassilika Vouton, GR – 700 13, Heraklion, Crete, GreeceAggeliki DoxaINRAE, UR629, Ecologie des forêts méditerranéennes, Avignon, FranceBruno Fady & Anne RoigINRAE, Univ. Bordeaux, BIOGECO, F-33610, Cestas, FranceArndt HampeMacedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Krste Misirkov 2, 1000, Skopje, Republic of MacedoniaVlado MatevskiEcoGozo, Regional Development Directorate – Ministry for Gozo, Flat 6, Sunset Court B, Triq Marsalforn, Xaghra, Gozo, MaltaStephen MisfudDepartment of Botany, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, CroatiaToni NikolicBakkevej 6, 5853, Ørbæk, DenmarkArne Strid More

  • in

    Size, microhabitat, and loss of larval feeding drive cranial diversification in frogs

    1.Collar, D. C., Schulte, J. A., O’Meara, B. C. & Losos, J. B. Habitat use affects morphological diversification in dragon lizards. J. Evol. Biol. 23, 1033–1049 (2010).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    2.Da Silva, F. O. et al. The ecological origins of snakes as revealed by skull evolution. Nat. Commun. 9, 1–11 (2018).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Vidal-García, M. & Keogh, J. S. Phylogenetic conservatism in skulls and evolutionary lability in limbs – morphological evolution across an ancient frog radiation is shaped by diet, locomotion and burrowing. BMC Evol. Biol. 17, 1–15 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    4.Fabre, A.-C., Cornette, R., Goswami, A. & Peigné, S. Do constraints associated with the locomotor habitat drive the evolution of forelimb shape? A case study in musteloid carnivorans. J. Anat. 226, 596–610 (2015).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Dumont, M. et al. Do functional demands associated with locomotor habitat, diet, and activity pattern drive skull shape evolution in musteloid carnivorans? Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 117, 858–878 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Baeckens, S., Goeyers, C. & Van Damme, R. Convergent evolution of claw shape in a transcontinental lizard radiation. Integr. Comp. Biol. https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icz151 (2019).7.Price, S. A., Holzman, R., Near, T. J. & Wainwright, P. C. Coral reefs promote the evolution of morphological diversity and ecological novelty in labrid fishes. Ecol. Lett. 14, 462–469 (2011).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Price, S. A., Tavera, J. J., Near, T. J. & Wainwright, P. C. Elevated rates of morphological and functional diversification in reef-dwelling haemulid fishes. Evolution 67, 417–428 (2012).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Millien, V. Morphological evolution is accelerated among island mammals. PLoS Biol. 4, 1863–1868 (2006).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Salvidio, S., Crovetto, F. & Adams, D. C. Potential rapid evolution of foot morphology in Italian plethodontid salamanders (Hydromantes strinatii) following the colonization of an artificial cave. J. Evol. Biol. 28, 1403–1409 (2015).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Ledbetter, N. M. & Bonett, R. M. Terrestriality constrains salamander limb diversification: implications for the evolution of pentadactyly. J. Evol. Biol. 32, 642–652 (2019).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    12.McGhee Jr, G. R. Convergent Evolution: Limited Forms Most Beautiful (MIT Press, 2011).13.Vullo, R., Allain, R. & Cavin, L. Convergent evolution of jaws between spinosaurid dinosaurs and pike conger eels. Acta Palaeontol. Pol. 61, 825–828 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    14.Stayton, C. T. Testing hypotheses of convergence with multivariate data: morphological and functional convergence among herbivorous lizards. Evolution 60, 824–841 (2006).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    15.Mahler, D. L., Ingram, T., Revell, L. J. & Losos, J. B. Exceptional convergence on the macroevolutionary landscape in island lizard radiations. Science 341, 292–5 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    16.Sears, K. E. Constraints on the morphological evolution of marsupial shoulder girdles. Evolution 58, 2353–2370 (2004).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Bennett, C. V. & Goswami, A. Statistical support for the hypothesis of developmental constraint in marsupial skull evolution. BMC Biol. 11, 1–14 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    18.Goswami, A. et al. Do developmental constraints and high integration limit the evolution of the marsupial oral apparatus? Integr. Comp. Biol. 56, 404–415 (2016).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Wake, D. B. & Hanken, J. Direct development in the lungless salamanders: what are the consequences for developmental biology, evolution and phylogenesis? Int. J. Dev. Biol. 40, 859–869 (1996).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Wake, D. B. & Larson, A. Multidimensional analysis of an evolving lineage. Science 238, 42–48 (1987).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Bonett, R. M. & Blair, A. L. Evidence for complex life cycle constraints on salamander body form diversification. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 9936–9941 (2017).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    22.Bardua, C., Wilkinson, M., Gower, D. J., Sherratt, E. & Goswami, A. Morphological evolution and modularity of the caecilian skull. BMC Evol. Biol. 19, 1–23 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    23.Schlosser, G. in Modularity: Understanding the Development and Evolution of Natural Complex Systems (eds. Callebaut, W. & Rasskin-Gutman, D.) (MIT Press, 2005).24.Moran, N. A. Adaptation and constraint in the complex life cycles of animals. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 25, 573–600 (1994).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Ebenman, B. Evolution in organisms that change their niches during the life cycle. Am. Nat. 139, 990–1021 (1992).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Mallarino, R. et al. Two developmental modules establish 3D beak-shape variation in Darwin’s finches. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 4057–4062 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    27.Liedtke, H. C. et al. Terrestrial reproduction as an adaptation to steep terrain in African toads. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 284, 20162598 (2017).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    28.Harrington, S. M., Harrison, L. B. & Sheil, C. A. Ossification sequence heterochrony among amphibians. Evol. Dev. 15, 344–364 (2013).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    29.Bonett, R. M., Phillips, J. G., Ledbetter, N. M., Martin, S. D. & Lehman, L. Rapid phenotypic evolution following shifts in life cycle complexity. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 285, 20172304 (2018).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    30.Laurent, R. F. Adaptive modifications in frogs of an isolated highland fauna in Central Africa. Evolution 18, 458–467 (1964).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    31.Moen, D. S., Morlon, H. & Wiens, J. J. Testing convergence versus history: convergence dominates phenotypic evolution for over 150 million years in frogs. Syst. Biol. 65, 146–160 (2016).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    32.Moen, D. S., Irschick, D. J. & Wiens, J. J. Evolutionary conservatism and convergence both lead to striking similarity in ecology, morphology and performance across continents in frogs. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 280, 1–9 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    33.Duellman, W. E. & Trueb, L. Biology of the Amphibians (McGraw-Hill publishing company, 1986).34.LaBarbera, M. in Patterns and Processes in the History of Life (eds. Raup, D.M. & Jablonski, D.) (Springer, 1986).35.Cardini, A. & Polly, P. D. Larger mammals have longer faces because of size-related constraints on skull form. Nat. Commun. 4, 2458 (2013).ADS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    36.Callery, E. M. & Elinson, R. P. Thyroid hormone-dependent metamorphosis in a direct developing frog. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97, 2615–2620 (2000).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    37.Ziermann, J. M. & Diogo, R. Cranial muscle development in frogs with different developmental modes: direct development versus biphasic development. J. Morphol. 275, 398–413 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    38.McDiarmid, R. W. & Altig, R. (eds) Tadpoles: The Biology of Anuran Larvae (University of Chicago Press, 1999).39.Altig, R. & Johnston, G. F. Guilds of anuran larvae: relationships among developmental modes, morphologies, and habitats. Herpetol. Monogr. 3, 81–109 (1989).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    40.Rose, C. S. & Reiss, J. O. in The Skull Volume 1: Development (eds. Hanken, J. & Hall, B. K.) (The University of Chicago Press, 1993).41.Callery, E. M., Fang, H. & Elinson, R. P. Frogs without polliwogs: evolution of anuran direct development. BioEssays 23, 233–241 (2001).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    42.Wake, D. B. & Roth, G. (eds). Complex Organismal Functions: Integration and Evolution in Vertebrates (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989).43.Weisbecker, V. & Mitgutsch, C. A large-scale survey of heterochrony in anuran cranial ossification patterns. J. Zool. Syst. Evol. Res. 48, 332–347 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    44.Dehling, J. M. & Sinsch, U. Partitioning of morphospace in larval and adult reed frogs (Anura: Hyperoliidae: Hyperolius) of the Central African Albertine Rift. Zool. Anz. 280, 65–77 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    45.Phung, T. X., Nascimento, J. C. S., Novarro, A. J. & Wiens, J. J. Correlated and decoupled evolution of adult and larval body size in frogs: larval and adult size evolution. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 287, 20201474 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    46.Werner, E. E. Amphibian metamorphosis: growth rate, predation risk, and the optimal size at transformation. Am. Nat. 128, 319–341 (1986).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    47.Sherratt, E., Vidal-García, M., Anstis, M. & Keogh, J. S. Adult frogs and tadpoles have different macroevolutionary patterns across the Australian continent. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1385–1391 (2017).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Wollenberg Valero, K. C. et al. Transcriptomic and macroevolutionary evidence for phenotypic uncoupling between frog life history phases. Nat. Commun. 8, 15213 (2017).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    49.Trueb, L. in The Skull: Patterns of Structural and Systematic Diversity (eds Hanken, J, & Hall, B. K.) (The University of Chicago Press, 1993).50.Trueb, L. in Evolutionary Biology of the Anurans: Contemporary Research on Major Problems (ed. Vial, J. L.) (University of Missouri Press, 1973).51.Reiss, J. O. The phylogeny of amphibian metamorphosis. Zoology 105, 85–96 (2002).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    52.Moore, M. K. & Townsend, V. R. Jr Intraspecific variation in cranial ossification in the tailed frog, Ascaphus truei. J. Herpetol. 37, 714–717 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    53.Yeh, J. The evolution of development: two portraits of skull ossification in pipoid frogs. Evolution 56, 2484–2498 (2002).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    54.Schoch, R. R. Amphibian skull evolution: the developmental and functional context of simplification, bone loss and heterotopy. J. Exp. Zool. B Mol. Dev. Evol. 322B, 619–630 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    55.Pereyra, M. O. et al. The complex evolutionary history of the tympanic middle ear in frogs and toads (Anura). Sci. Rep. 6, 1–9 (2016).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Long, J. A., Young, G. C., Holland, T., Senden, T. J. & Fitzgerald, E. M. G. An exceptional Devonian fish from Australia sheds light on tetrapod origins. Nature 444, 199–202 (2006).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    57.Daeschler, E. B., Shubin, N. H. & Jenkins, F. A. Jr A Devonian tetrapod-like fish and the evolution of the tetrapod body plan. Nature 440, 757–763 (2006).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    58.Barton, R. A. & Harvey, P. H. Mosaic evolution of brain structure in mammals. Nature 405, 1055–1058 (2000).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    59.Schlosser, G. Mosaic evolution of neural development in anurans: acceleration of spinal cord development in the direct developing frog Eleutherodactylus coqui. Anat. Embryol. 206, 215–227 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    60.Felice, R. N. & Goswami, A. Developmental origins of mosaic evolution in the avian cranium. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 555–560 (2018).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    61.Felice, R. N. et al. Evolutionary integration and modularity in the archosaur cranium. Integr. Comp. Biol. 59, 371–382 (2019).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    62.Watanabe, A. et al. Ecomorphological diversification in squamates from conserved pattern of cranial integration. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 14688–14697 (2019).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Owen, R. On the Archaeopteryx of Von Meyer, with a description of the fossil remains of a long-tailed species from the lithographic stone of Solnhofen. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 153, 33–47 (1863).ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    64.Paluh, D. J., Stanley, E. L. & Blackburn, D. C. Evolution of hyperossification expands skull diversity in frogs. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 8554–8562 (2020).65.Gomez-Mestre, I., Pyron, R. A. & Wiens, J. J. Phylogenetic analyses reveal unexpected patterns in the evolution of reproductive modes in frogs. Evolution 66, 3687–3700 (2012).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    66.Nevo, E. Adaptive convergence and divergence of subterranean mammals. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 10, 269–308 (1979).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Nevo, E. Mammalian evolution underground. The ecological-genetic-phenetic interfaces. Acta Theriol. 3, 9–31 (1995).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    68.Vogel, S. Life’s Devices: The Physical World of Animals and Plants (Princeton Univ. Press, 1988).69.Sansalone, G. et al. Impact of transition to a subterranean lifestyle on morphological disparity and integration in talpid moles (Mammalia, Talpidae). BMC Evol. Biol. 19, 1–15 (2019).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    70.Nauwelaerts, S., Ramsay, J. & Aerts, P. Morphological correlates of aquatic and terrestrial locomotion in a semi-aquatic frog, Rana esculenta: no evidence for a design conflict. J. Anat. 210, 304–317 (2007).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    71.Sherratt, E., Gower, D. J., Klingenberg, C. P. & Wilkinson, M. Evolution of cranial shape in caecilians (Amphibia: Gymnophiona). Evol. Biol. 41, 528–545 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    72.Cardini, A., Polly, P. D., Dawson, R. & Milne, N. Why the long face? Kangaroos and wallabies follow the same ‘rule’ of cranial evolutionary allometry (CREA) as placentals. Evol. Biol. 42, 169–176 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    73.Yeh, J. The effect of miniaturized body size on skeletal morphology in frogs. Evolution 56, 628–641 (2002).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    74.Wells, K. D. The Ecology and Behavior of Amphibians (University of Chicago Press, 2010).75.Emerson, S. B. Skull shape in frogs: correlations with diet. Herpetologica 41, 177–188 (1985).
    Google Scholar 
    76.Carreño, C. A. & Nishikawa, K. C. Aquatic feeding in pipid frogs: the use of suction for prey capture. J. Exp. Biol. 213, 2001–2008 (2010).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    77.Fernandez, E., Irish, F. & Cundall, D. How a frog, Pipa pipa, succeeds or fails in catching fish. Copeia 105, 108–119 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    78.Herrel, A. et al. in Feeding in Vertebrates: Evolution, Morphology, Behavior, Biomechanics (eds. Bels, V. & Whishaw, I. Q.) (Springer, 2019).79.Bardua, C. et al. Evolutionary integration of the frog cranium. Evolution 74, 1200–1215 (2020).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    80.Bon, M., Bardua, C., Goswami, A. & Fabre, A.-C. Cranial integration in the fire salamander, Salamandra salamandra (Caudata: Salamandridae). Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 130, 178–194 (2020).81.Fabre, A. et al. Metamorphosis and the evolution of morphological diversity in salamanders. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 1129–1140 (2020).82.Nishikawa, K. C. in Feeding: Form, Function and Evolution in Tetrapod Vertebrates (ed. Schwenk, K.) (Academic Press, 2000).83.Trueb, L. & Gans, C. Feeding specializations of the Mexican burrowing toad, Rhinophrynus dorsalis (Anura: Rhinophrynidae). J. Zool. 199, 189–208 (1983).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    84.Nishikawa, K. C., Kier, W. M. & Smith, K. K. Morphology and mechanics of tongue movement in the African pig-nosed frog Hemisus marmoratum: a muscular hydrostatic model. J. Exp. Biol. 202, 771–80 (1999).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    85.Henrici, A. C. Digging through the past: the evolutionary history of burrowing and underground feeding in rhinophrynid anurans. Palaeobiodivers. Palaeoenviron. 96, 97–109 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    86.Van Dijk, D. E. Osteology of the ranoid burrowing African anurans Breviceps and Hemisus. Afr. Zool. 36, 137–141 (2001).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    87.Womack, M. C., Christensen-Dalsgaard, J., Coloma, L. A. & Hoke, K. L. Sensitive high-frequency hearing in earless and partially eared harlequin frogs (Atelopus). J. Exp. Biol. 221, 1–8 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    88.Boistel, R. et al. How minute sooglossid frogs hear without a middle ear. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 15360–15364 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    89.Womack, M. C., Stynoski, J. L., Voyles, M. K., Coloma, L. A. & Hoke, K. L. Prolonged middle ear development in Rhinella horribilis. J. Morphol. 279, 1518–1523 (2018).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    90.Womack, M. C., Christensen-Dalsgaard, J., Coloma, L. A., Chaparro, J. C. & Hoke, K. L. Earless toads sense low frequencies but miss the high notes. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 284, 20171670 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    91.Hetherington, T. E. in The Evolutionary Biology of Hearing (eds. Webster, D. B., Fay, R. R. & Popper, A. N.) (Springer, 1992).92.Hanken, J., Klymkowsky, M. W., Summers, C. H., Seufert, D. W. & Ingebrigtsen, N. Cranial ontogeny in the direct-developing frog, Eleutherodactylus coqui (Anura: Leptodactylidae), analyzed using whole-mount lmmunohistochemistry. J. Morphol. 211, 95–118 (1992).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    93.Hanken, J., Klymkowsky, M. W., Alley, K. E. & Jennings, D. H. Jaw muscle development as evidence for embryonic repatterning in direct-developing frogs. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 264, 1349–1354 (1997).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    94.Wray, G. A. & Raff, R. A. The evolution of developmental strategy in marine invertebrates. Trends Ecol. Evol. 6, 45–50 (1991).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    95.Watkins, T. B. A quantitative genetic test of adaptive decoupling across metamorphosis for locomotor and life-history traits in the Pacific tree frog, Hyla regilla. Evolution 55, 1668–1677 (2001).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    96.Wilson, A. D. M. & Krause, J. Personality and metamorphosis: is behavioral variation consistent across ontogenetic niche shifts? Behav. Ecol. 23, 1316–1323 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    97.O’Reilly, J. C., Deban, S. M. & Nishikawa., K. C. in Topics in Functional and Ecological Vertebrate Morphology: A Tribute to Frits de Vree (eds. Aerts, P., D’Août, K., Herrel, A. & van Damme, R.) (Shaker Publishing, 2002).98.Philips, P. C. Genetic constraints at the metamorphic boundary: morphological development in the wood frog, Rana sylvatica. J. Evol. Biol. 11, 453–463 (1998).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    99.Johansson, F., Lederer, B. & Lind, M. I. Trait performance correlations across life stages under environmental stress conditions in the common frog, Rana temporaria. PLoS ONE 5, e11680 (2010).ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    100.Wassersug, R. J. The adaptive significance of the tadpole stage with comments on the maintenance of complex life cycles in anurans. Am. Zool. 15, 405–417 (1975).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    101.Vassilieva, A. B. Heterochronies in the cranial development of Asian tree frogs (Amphibia: Anura: Rhacophoridae) with different life histories. Dokl. Biol. Sci. 473, 110–113 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    102.Kerney, R., Meegaskumbura, M., Manamendra-Arachchi, K. & Hanken, J. Cranial ontogeny in Philautus silus (Anura: Ranidae: Rhacophorinae) reveals few similarities with other direct-developing anurans. J. Morphol. 268, 715–725 (2007).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    103.Heatwole, H. & Davies, M. (eds.) Amphibian biology (volume 5), osteology. (Surrey Beatty & Sons, 2003).104.Hanken, J. & Hall, B. K. Skull development during anuran metamorphosis: I. Early development of the first three bones to form–the exoccipital, the parasphenoid, and the frontoparietal. J. Morphol. 195, 247–256 (1988).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    105.Fink, W. L. The conceptual relationship between ontogeny and phylogeny. Paleobiology 8, 254–264 (1982).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    106.Strathmann, R. R. in Echinoderm Phylogeny and Evolutionary Biology (eds. Paul, C. R. C. & Smith, A. B.) (Clarendon Press, 1988).107.Laloy, F. et al. A re-interpretation of the Eocene anuran Thaumastosaurus based on MicroCT examination of a “mummified” specimen. PLoS ONE 8, e74874 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    108.Frost, D. R. et al. The amphibian tree of life. Bull. Am. Mus. Nat. Hist. 297, 1–370 (2006).109.Quental, T. B. & Marshall, C. R. Diversity dynamics: molecular phylogenies need the fossil record. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25, 435–441 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    110.Slater, G. J. & Harmon, L. J. Unifying fossils and phylogenies for comparative analyses of diversification and trait evolution. Methods Ecol. Evol. 4, 699–702 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    111.Volume Graphics. VGStudio MAX v. 2.0 (Volume Graphics GmbH, 2001).112.Bardua, C., Felice, R. N., Watanabe, A., Fabre, A.-C. & Goswami, A. A practical guide to sliding and surface semilandmarks in morphometric analyses. Integr. Org. Biol. 1, 1–34 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    113.Jetz, W. & Pyron, R. A. The interplay of past diversification and evolutionary isolation with present imperilment across the amphibian tree of life. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 850–858 (2018).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    114.Paradis, E., Claude, J. & Strimmer, K. APE: analyses of phylogenetics and evolution in R language. Bioinformatics 20, 289–290 (2004).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    115.Paradis, E. & Schliep, K. ape 5.0: an environment for modern phylogenetics and evolutionary analyses in R. Bioinformatics 35, 526–528 (2018).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    116.Wiley, D. F. et al. Evolutionary morphing. In Proc. Visualization Conference (IEEE, 2005).117.Schlager, S. in Statistical Shape and Deformation Analysis (eds. Zheng, G., Li, S. & Szekely, G.) (Academic Press, 2017).118.Cardini, A. Left, right or both? Estimating and improving accuracy of one-side-only geometric morphometric analyses of cranial variation. J. Zool. Syst. Evol. Res. 55, 1–10 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    119.Marshall, A. F. et al. High-density three-dimensional morphometric analyses support conserved static (intraspecific) modularity in caecilian (Amphibia: Gymnophiona) crania. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 126, 721–742 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    120.Bossuyt, F. & Milinkovitch, M. C. Convergent adaptive radiations in Madagascan and Asian ranid frogs reveal covariation between larval and adult traits. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97, 6585–90 (2000).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    121.Young, J. E., Christian, K. A., Donnellan, S. C., Tracy, C. R. & Parry, D. Comparative analysis of cutaneous evaporative water loss in frogs demonstrates correlation with ecological habits. Physiol. Biochem. Zool. 78, 847–856 (2005).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    122.Portik, D. M. & Blackburn, D. C. The evolution of reproductive diversity in Afrobatrachia: a phylogenetic comparative analysis of an extensive radiation of African frogs. Evolution 70, 2017–2032 (2016).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    123.Scott, E. A phylogeny of ranid frogs (Anura: Ranoidea: Ranidae), based on a simultaneous analysis of morphological and molecular data. Cladistics 21, 507–574 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    124.Adams, D. C. & Otárola-Castillo, E. geomorph: an R package for the collection and analysis of geometric morphometric shape data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 4, 393–399 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    125.Revell, L. J. phytools: an R package for phylogenetic comparative biology (and other things). Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 217–223 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    126.Clavel, J., Escarguel, G. & Merceron, G. mvmorph: an r package for fitting multivariate evolutionary models to morphometric data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 6, 1311–1319 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    127.Clavel, J., Aristide, L. & Morlon, H. A penalized likelihood framework for high-dimensional phylogenetic comparative methods and an application to new-world monkeys brain evolution. Syst. Biol. 68, 93–116 (2019).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    128.Clavel, J. & Morlon, H. Reliable phylogenetic regressions for multivariate comparative data: illustration with the MANOVA and application to the effect of diet on mandible morphology in phyllostomid bats. Syst. Biol. 69, 927–943 (2020).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    129.Housworth, E. A., Martins, E. P. & Lynch, M. The phylogenetic mixed model. Am. Nat. 163, 84–96 (2004).PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    130.Revell, L. J. Phylogenetic signal and linear regression on species data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 1, 319–329 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    131.Freckleton, R. P., Harvey, P. H. & Pagel, M. Phylogenetic analysis and comparative data: a test and review of evidence. Am. Nat. 160, 712–726 (2002).CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    132.Goolsby, E. W., Bruggeman, J. & Ane, C. Rphylopars: phylogenetic comparative tools for missing data and within-species variation. R package version 0.2.11 https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=Rphylopars (2019).133.Goolsby, E. W., Bruggeman, J. & Ané, C. Rphylopars: fast multivariate phylogenetic comparative methods for missing data and within-species variation. Methods Ecol. Evol. 8, 22–27 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    134.Bardua, C. & Goswami, A. Frog skull shape data for modularity and macroevolution. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4619880 (2020). More

  • in

    The Holocene influence on the future evolution of the Venice Lagoon tidal marshes

    1.D’Alpaos, A., Da Lio, C. & Marani, M. Biogeomorphology of tidal landforms: physical and biological processes shaping the tidal landscape. Ecohydrology 5, 550–562 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    2.Morris, J. T., Sundareshwar, P. V., Nietch, C. T., Kjerfve, B. & Cahoon, D. R. Response of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83, 2869–2877 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Murray, A. B., Knaapen, M. A. F., Tal, M. & Kirwan, M. L. Biomorphodynamics: physical-biological feedbacks that shape landscapes. Water Resour. Res. 44, W11301 (2008).4.Mudd, S. M., Howell, S. M. & Morris, J. T. Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. Estuar. Coast. Shelf S. 82, 377 – 389 (2009).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Syvitski, J. P. M. et al. Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat. Geosci. 2, 681–686 (2009).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Törnqvist, T. E. et al. Mississippi delta subsidence primarily caused by compaction of Holocene strata. Nat. Geosci. 1, 173–176 (2008).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Global Wetland Outlook: State of the World’s Wetlands and their Services to People. Technical Report (Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, Gland, Switzerland: Ramsar Convention Secretariat, 2018).8.Mcleod, E. et al. A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2. Front. Ecol. Environ. 9, 552–560 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Lovelock, C. E. et al. Assessing the risk of carbon dioxide emissions from blue carbon ecosystems. Front. Ecol. Environ. 15, 257–265 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Sapkota, Y. & White, J. R. Carbon offset market methodologies applicable for coastal wetland restoration and conservation in the united states: a review. Sci. Total Environ. 701, 134497 (2020).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Brain, M. J. Past, present and future perspectives of sediment compaction as a driver of relative sea level and coastal change. Current Clim. Change Rep. 2, 75–85 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    12.Marani, M., D’Alpaos, A., Lanzoni, S. & Santalucia, M. Understanding and predicting wave erosion of marsh edges. Giophys. Res. Lett. 38, L21401 (2011).13.Houser, C. Relative importance of vessel-generated and wind waves to salt marsh erosion in a restricted fetch environment. J. Coast. Res. 26, 230–240 (2010).14.Anderson, F. E. Effect of wave-wash from personal watercraft on salt marsh channels. J. Coast. Res. 37, 33–49 (2002).15.Day, J. et al. Sustainability of mediterranean deltaic and lagoon wetlands with sea-level rise: the importance of river input. Estuaries Coasts 34, 483–493 (2011).16.Nicholls, R. J. & Cazenave, A. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328, 1517–1520 (2010).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Schuerch, M., Spencer, T. & Temmerman, S. e. a. Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Nature 561, 231–234 (2018).18.Tosi, L., Da Lio, C., Teatini, P. & Strozzi, T. Land subsidence in coastal environments: knowledge advance in the venice coastland by TerraSAR-X PSI. Remote Sens. 10, 1191 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Strozzi, T., Teatini, P., Tosi, L., Wegmüller, U. & Werner, C. Land subsidence of natural transitional environments by satellite radar interferometry on artificial reflectors. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surface 118, 1177–1191 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Mariotti, G. Beyond marsh drowning: the many faces of marsh loss (and gain). Adv. Water Resour. 144, 103710 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Jankowski, K. L., Törnqvist, T. E. & Fernandes, A. M. Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise. Nat. Commun. 8, 14792 (2017).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    22.D’Alpaos, A. & Marani, M. Reading the signatures of biologic-geomorphic feedbacks in salt-marsh landscapes. Adv. Water Resour. 93, 265–275 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    23.Fagherazzi, S. et al. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors. Rev. Geophys. 50, RG1002 (2012).24.Allen, J. R. L. Morphodynamics of Holocene salt marshes: a review sketch from the Atlantic and Southern North Sea coasts of Europe. Quaternary Sci. Rev. 19, 1155–1231 (2000).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Marani, M., D’Alpaos, A., Lanzoni, S., Carniello, L. & Rinaldo, A. The importance of being coupled: Stable states and catastrophic shifts in tidal biomorphodynamics. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surface 115, 1–15 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Da Lio, C., D’Alpaos, A. & Marani, M. The secret gardener: vegetation and the emergence of biogeomorphic patterns in tidal environments. Philos. Trans. A. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 371, 20120367 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    27.Allen, J. R. L. Geological impact on coastal wetland landscapes: some general effects of sediment autocompaction in the Holocene of northwest Europe. Holocene 9, 1–12 (1999).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    28.Callaway, J. C., DeLaune, R. D. & Jr., W. H. P. Sediment accretion rates from four coastal wetlands along the gulf of Mexico. J. Coast. Res. 13, 181–191 http://www.jstor.org/stable/4298603 (1997).29.Rybczyk, J. M., Callaway, J. & Jr, J. D. A relative elevation model for a subsiding coastal forested wetland receiving wastewater effluent. Ecol. Model. 112, 23–44 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00125-2 (1998).30.Shirzaei, M. et al. Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 40–58 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    31.Brain, M. J. et al. Exploring mechanisms of compaction in salt-marsh sediments using Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions. Quat. Sci. Rev. 167, 96–111 (2017).32.Zoccarato, C. & Teatini, P. Numerical simulations of Holocene salt-marsh dynamics under the hypothesis of large soil deformations. Ad. Water Res. 110, 107–119 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    33.Da Lio, C., Teatini, P., Strozzi, T. & Tosi, L. Understanding land subsidence in salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon from SAR interferometry and ground-based investigations. Remote Sens. Environ. 205, 56–70 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    34.Cahoon, D. & Turner, R. E. Accretion and canal impacts in a rapidly subsiding wetland ii. feldspar marker horizon technique. Estuaries 12, 260–268 (1989).35.Cahoon, D. R. & Reed, D. J. W., D. J. Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern united states: Kaye and barghoorn revisited. Marine Geol. 128, 1–9 (1995).36.Cahoon, D. R. et al. High-precision measurements of wetland sediment elevation: II. The rod surface elevation table. J. Sediment. Res. 72, 734–739 (2002).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    37.Teatini, P. et al. Mapping regional land displacements in the Venice coastland by an integrated monitoring system. Remote Sens. Environ. 98, 403–413 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    38.Tosi, L. et al. Ground surface dynamics in the northern adriatic coastland over the last two decades. Rendiconti Lincei 21, 115–129 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    39.Karegar, M., Dixon, T. & Malservisi, R. A three-dimensional surface velocity field for the mississippi delta: implications for coastal restoration and flood potential. Geology 43, 519–522 (2015).40.Brain, M. J. et al. Modelling the effects of sediment compaction on salt marsh reconstructions of recent sea-level rise. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 345–348, 180–193 (2012).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    41.Tosi, L., Teatini, P., Carbognin, L. & Brancolini, G. Using high resolution data to reveal depth-dependent mechanisms that drive land subsidence: The Venice coast, Italy. Tectonophysics 474, 271–284 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    42.Tosi, L. et al. Note illustrative della carta geologica d’italia alla scala 1: 50.000 foglio 128 venezia. APAT – Dipartimento Difesa del Suolo, Servizio Geologico d’Italia (2007).43.Rizzetto, F. & Tosi, L. Aptitude of modern salt marshes to counteract relative sea-level rise, Venice Lagoon (Italy). Geology 39, 755–758 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    44.Cola, S., Sanavia, L., Simonini, P. & Schrefler, B. A. Coupled thermohydromechanical analysis of Venice lagoon salt marshes. Water Resour. Res. 44, 1–16 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    45.Carminati, E. & Di Donato, G. Separating natural and anthropogenic vertical movements in fast subsiding areas: the po plain (n. italy) case. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2291–2294 (1999).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    46.Carbognin, L., Teatini, P. & Tosi, L. The impact of relative sea-level rise on the Northern Adriatic Sea coast, Italy. WIT Trans. Ecol. Environ. 127, 137–148 (2009).47.Tsimplis, M. et al. Recent developments in understanding sea level rise at the Adriatic coasts. Phys. Chem. Earth Parts A/B/C 40-41, 59 – 71 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Antonioli, F. et al. Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the italian coastal plains: flooding risk scenarios for 2100. Quat. Sci. Rev. 158, 29 – 43 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    49.Zanchettin, D. et al. Review article: Sea-level rise in venice: historic and future trends. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2020, 1–56 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    50.Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D.C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegriá, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B. & Weyer, N. M.) Ch. 4 (IPCC, 2019).51.Tsimplis, M. N. & Rixen, M. Sea level in the mediterranean sea: the contribution of temperature and salinity changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 51–1–51–4 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    52.Thiéblemont, R., Le Cozannet, G., Toimil, A., Meyssignac, B. & Losada, I. Likely and high-end impacts of regional sea-level rise on the shoreline change of european sandy coasts under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Water 11, 2607 (2019).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    53.Zoccarato, C., Da Lio, C., Tosi, L. & Teatini, P. A coupled biomorpho-geomechanical model of tidal marsh evolution. Water Resour. Res. 55, 8330–8349 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    54.Marani, M., D’Alpaos, A., Lanzoni, S., Carniello, L. & Rinaldo, A. Biologically-controlled multiple equilibria of tidal landforms and the fate of the Venice Lagoon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, 1–5 (2007).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    55.Ferrarin, C. et al. Assessing hydrological effects of human interventions on coastal systems: numerical applications to the Venice Lagoon. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 1733–1748 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Umgiesser, G. The impact of operating the mobile barriers in venice (mose) under climate change. J. Nat. Conserv. 54, 125783 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    57.Roner, M. et al. Spatial variation of salt-marsh organic and inorganic deposition and organic carbon accumulation: inferences from the venice lagoon, italy. Ad. Water Res. 93, 276–287 (2016).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    58.Long, A. J., Waller, M. P. & Stupples, P. Driving mechanisms of coastal change: peat compaction and the destruction of late Holocene coastal wetlands. Mar. Geol. 225, 63–84 (2006).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    59.Karegar, M. A., Larson, K. M., Kusche, J. & Dixon, T. H. Novel quantification of shallow sediment compaction by gps interferometric reflectometry and implications for flood susceptibility. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087807 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    60.Zoccarato, C., Minderhoud, P. S. J. & Teatini, P. The role of sedimentation and natural compaction in a prograding delta: insights from the mega mekong delta, vietnam. Sci. Rep. 8, 11437 (2018).61.Brain, M. J., Long, A. J., Petley, D. N., Horton, B. P. & Allison, R. J. Compression behaviour of minerogenic low energy intertidal sediments. Sed. Geol. 233, 28–41 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    62.Guimond, J. A., Yu, X., Seyfferth, A. L. & Michael, H. A. Using hydrological-biogeochemical linkages to elucidate carbon dynamics in coastal marshes subject to relative sea-level rise. Water Resour. Res. 56, e2019WR026302 (2020).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Teatini, P. et al. Characterizing marshland compressibility by an in-situ loading test: design and set-up of an experiment in the Venice Lagoon. Proc. IAHS 382, 345–351 (2020).64.Mazzia, A., Ferronato, M., Teatini, P. & Zoccarato, C. Virtual element method for the numerical simulation of long-term dynamics of transitional environments. J. Comput. Phys. 407, 109235 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    65.Gambolati, G. Equation for one-dimensional vertical flow of groundwater. 1. The rigorous theory. Water Resour. Res. 9, 1022–1028 (1973).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    66.Gambolati, G. Equation for one-dimensional vertical flow of groundwater. 2. Validity range of the diffusion equation. Water Resour. Res. 9, 1385–1395 (1973).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Gambolati, G., Giunta, G. & Teatini, P. Numerical modeling of natural land subsidence over sedimentary basins undergoing large compaction. In Gambolati, G. (ed.) CENAS – Coastline evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to sea level rise and natural and anthropogenic land subsidence, no. 28 in Water Science and Technology Library, 77–102 (Klwer Acedemic Publ., 1998). More

  • in

    African swine fever ravaging Borneo’s wild pigs

    African swine fever has breached the island of Borneo, where it is wiping out populations of the wild bearded pig Sus barbatus. First confirmed in early February, the outbreak has driven a precipitous decline in this species in less than two months. Field sites in the east of the Sabah region are reporting a complete absence of live pigs in forests. Local extinctions across swathes of Borneo are a realistic prospect.Bearded pigs are listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. They are seen as ‘ecosystem engineers’ in the Bornean rainforest, where they are one of the most abundant species of mammal. Bearded pigs can be legally hunted under permit, and are an important source of animal protein for many communities.The African swine fever virus is already island-hopping across southeast Asia, threatening 11 species of endemic pig, including the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis). Opportunities to control the disease in wild-pig populations are limited. Vaccines for domestic pigs are still in development, so the best hope for stemming loss of the wild animals could be to protect isolated populations in geographically defensible locations. More