More stories

  • in

    Caveats on COVID-19 herd immunity threshold: the Spain case

    Generation timeDuring the infectious period, an infected individual may produce a secondary infection. However, the individual’s infectiousness is not constant during the infectious period, but it can be approximated by the probability distribution of the generation time (GT), which accounts for the time between the infection of a primary case and the infection of a secondary case. Unfortunately, such distribution is not as easy to estimate as that of the serial interval, which accounts for the time between the onset of symptoms in a primary case to the onset of symptoms of a secondary case. This is because the time of infection is more difficult to detect than the time of symptoms onset. Ganyani et al.27 developed a methodology to estimate the distribution of the GT from the distributions of the incubation period and the serial interval. Assuming an incubation period following a gamma distribution with a mean of 5.2 days and a standard deviation (SD) of 2.8 days, they estimated the serial interval from 91 and 135 pairs of documented infector-infectee in Singapore and Tianjin (China). Then, they found that the GT followed a gamma distribution with mean = 5.20 (95% CI = [3.78, 6.78]) days and SD = 1.72 (95% CI = [0.91, 3.93]) for Singapore (hereafter GT1), and with mean = 3.95 (95% CI = [3.01, 4.91]) days and SD = 1.51 (95% CI = [0.74, 2.97]) for Tianjin (hereafter GT2). Ng et al.28 applied the same methodology to 209 pairs of infector-infectee in Singapore and determined a gamma distribution with mean = 3.44 (95% CI = [2.79, 4.11]) days and SD 2.39 (95% CI = [1.27, 3.45]; hereafter GT3). Figure 3 shows the probability density functions (PDF) of such distributions, fGT. The differences between them are remarkable. For example, the 54.5%, 81.0%, and 80.7% of the contagions are produced in a pre-symptomatic stage (in the first 5.2 days after primary infection) assuming GT1, GT2, and GT3, respectively.Figure 3Probability density function of the generation time distribution, fGT(t), of GT1 (blue line; Singapore27), GT2 (yellow line; Tianjin27), GT3 (red line; Singapore28), and GTth (black line; theoretical distribution). Bars are the discretized version, (widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right)), of the PDF of GTth.Full size imageTheoretically, assuming that the incubation periods of two individuals are independent and identically distributed, which is quite plausible, the expected/mean values of the GT and the serial interval should be equal29,30. The mean of the serial interval is easier to estimate than that of the GT. For that reason, we assume a mean serial interval as estimated from a meta-analysis of 13 studies involving a total of 964 pairs of infector-infectee, which is 4.99 days (95% CI = [4.17, 5.82])31, is more reliable than the aforementioned means of the GT. This value is within the error estimates of the means of GT1 and GT2, but not for GT3. Then, we construct a theoretical distribution for the GT that follows a gamma distribution (hereafter GTth) with mean = 4.99 days and SD = 1.88 days. This theoretical distribution can be seen in Fig. 3 and approximates the average PDF of three gamma distributions with mean = 4.99 and the SD of GT1, GT2, and GT3. We assume a conservative CI = [1.51, 2.39] for the theoretical SD, defined with the minimum and maximum SD values of GT1, GT2, and GT3. GTth shows 63.1% of pre-symptomatic contagions.
    R

    0

    from r
    In theory, the basic reproduction number R0 can be estimated as far as the intrinsic growth rate r, and the distributions of both the latent and infectious periods are known26,32,33,34. The latent period accounts for the period during which an infected individual cannot infect other individuals. It is observed in diseases for which the infectious period starts around the end of the incubation period, as happened with influenza35 and SARS36. However, from Fig. 3 it is inferred that COVID-19 is transmissible from the moment of infection, and we will assume a null latent period. Then, if the GT follows a gamma distribution, R0 can be estimated from the formulation of Anderson and Watson32, which was adapted to null latent periods by Yan26 as$$ R_{0} = frac{{mean_{GT} }}{{1 – left( {1 + mean_{GT} cdot r cdot frac{1}{{shape_{GT} }}} right)^{{ – shape_{GT} }} }} cdot r, $$
    (4)
    where meanGT is the mean GT and shapeGT is one of the two parameters defining the gamma distribution, which can be estimated as$$ shape_{GT} = frac{{left( {mean_{GT} } right)^{2} }}{{left( {SD_{GT} } right)^{2} }}. $$
    (5)
    For GTth, we get R0 = 1.50 (CI = [1.41, 1.61]) for REMEDID I(n) and R0 = 1.76 (CI = [1.60, 1.94]) for official I(n). For the other three GT distributions, R0 ranges from 1.39 (CI = [1.27, 1.58]) to 1.51 (CI = [1.34, 1.80]) for REMEDID I(n) and from 1.59 (CI = [1.40, 1.88]) to 1.78 (CI = [1.51, 2.23]) for official I(n) (Table 1). In all cases, R0 from GTth are within those from the three known GT distributions and indistinguishable from them within the error estimates. The lower (upper) bound of the CI is estimated as the minimum (maximum) R0 obtained from all the possible combinations of 100 evenly spaced values covering the CI of r, meanGT and SDGT. Then, following the Bonferroni correction, the reported CI present at least a 85% of confidence level for GT1, GT2, and GT3, but it cannot be assured for GTth since the CI of its SD is unknown. In general, all these R0 estimates are lower than those summarised by Park et al.20.Table 1 R0 and HIT values of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 variant estimated from GT1, GT2, GT3, and GTth, and REMEDID and official infections. For date0, “Dec.” means December 2019, and “Jan.” means January 2020.Full size tableAlternatively, R0 can be estimated by applying the Euler–Lotka equation29,33,$$ R_{0} = frac{1}{{mathop smallint nolimits_{0}^{ + infty } e^{ – rt} cdot f_{GT} left( t right)dt}}. $$
    (6)
    In this case, we get values closer to previous estimates20. In particular, for GTth, we get R0 = 2.12 (CI = [1.81, 2.48]) for REMEDID I(n) and R0 = 2.92 (CI = [2.28, 3.75]) for official I(n). For the other three GT distributions, R0 ranges from 1.63 (CI = [1.43, 1.90]) to 2.21 (CI = [1.59, 2.95]) for REMEDID I(n) and from 1.97 (CI = [1.59, 2.54]) to 3.11 (CI = [1.84, 4.90]) for official I(n) (Table 1). The CI are estimated as in Eq. (4).R0 from a dynamical modelWe designed a dynamic model with Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) as stocks that accounts for the infectiousness of the infectors. Such a model is a generalisation of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model37. Births, deaths, immigration and emigration are ignored, which seems reasonable since the timescale of the outbreak is too short to produce significant demographic changes. For the sake of simplicity, the recovered stock includes recoveries and fatalities, and it is denoted as R(t). A random mixing population is assumed, that is a population where contacts between any two people are equally probable. Time is discretized in days, so the real time variable t is replaced by the integer variable n. As a consequence, the derivatives in the differential equations defining the dynamic model explained below are discrete derivatives.The size of the population is fixed at N = 100,000, and then, for any day n we get$$ tilde{S}left( n right) + left( {mathop sum limits_{k = 0}^{20} tilde{I}left( n-k right)} right) + tilde{R}left( n right) = N, $$
    (7)
    where (tilde{S}left( n right)), (tilde{I}left( n right)), and (tilde{R}left( n right)) are the discretized versions of S(t), I(t), and R(t) and (tilde{I}) is assumed to be null for negative integers. The summation is a consequence of the infectiousness, which is approximated according to the GT, whose PDF is discretized as$$ widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right) = mathop smallint limits_{n – 1}^{n} f_{GT} left( t right) dt, $$
    (8)
    from n = 1 to 20. Figure 3 shows (widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right)) for GTth. Truncating at n = 20 accounts for 99.99% of the area below the PDF of all the GT. Then, an infected individual at day n0 is expected to produce on average$$ widetilde{{R_{e} }}left( {n_{0} + n} right) cdot widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right) $$
    (9)
    infections n days later, where (widetilde{{R_{e} }}left( n right)) is the discretized version of Re(t). From this expression, it is obvious that values of (widetilde{{R_{e} }}left( n right) < 1) will produce a decline of infections. Conversely, infections at day n0 are produced by all individuals infected during the previous 20 days as$$ tilde{I}(n_{0} ) = tilde{R}_{e} left( {n_{0} } right) cdot left( {mathop sum limits_{n = 1}^{20} tilde{I}left( {n_{0} - n} right) cdot widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right)} right), $$ (10) whose continuous version has been reported in previous studies29,38. The expression in brackets is called total infectiousness of infected individuals at day n039. According to Eq. (1), Eq. (10) can be expressed in terms of R0 as$$ tilde{I}(n_{0} ) = R_{0} cdot frac{{tilde{S}left( {n_{0} } right)}}{N} cdot left( {mathop sum limits_{n = 1}^{20} tilde{I}left( {n_{0} - n} right) cdot widetilde{{f_{GT} }}left( n right)} right). $$ (11) As we want a dynamic model capable of providing (tilde{I}left( {n_{0} } right)) from the stocks at time step n0 − 1, we replaced (tilde{S}left( {n_{0} } right)) by (tilde{S}left( {n_{0} - 1} right)) in Eq. (11). This assumption makes sense in a discrete domain since the infections at time n0 take place in the susceptible population at time n0 − 1. Then, assuming that all stocks are set to zero for negative integers, our dynamic model can be expressed in terms of Eq. (7) and the following differential equations:$$ delta tilde{I}(n_{0} ) = R_{0} cdot frac{{tilde{S}left( {n_{0} - 1} right)}}{N} cdot left( {mathop sum limits_{n = 1}^{20} tilde{I}left( {n_{0} - n} right) cdot widetilde{{{text{f}}_{GT} }}left( n right)} right) - tilde{I}(n_{0} - 1), $$ (12) $$ delta tilde{S}left( {n_{0} } right) = {-}tilde{I}left( {n_{0} } right), $$ (13) $$ delta tilde{R}left( {n_{0} } right) = tilde{I}left( {n_{0} - 21} right), $$ (14) where (delta tilde{I}), (delta tilde{S}), and (delta tilde{R}) are the (discrete) derivatives of (tilde{I}), (tilde{S}), and (tilde{R}), respectively. Applying the initial conditions (tilde{S}left( 0 right) = N - 1), (tilde{I}left( 0 right) = 1), and (tilde{R}left( 0 right) = 0), it is assumed that the outbreak was produced by only one infector. The latter is not true in Spain, since several independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 were detected40. However, for modelling purposes it is equivalent to introducing a single infection at day 0 or M infections produced by the single infection n days later. Then, the date of the initial time n = 0 is accounted as a parameter date0, which is optimised, as well as R0, to minimise the root-mean square of the residual between the model simulated (tilde{I}left( n right)) and the REMEDID and official I(n) for the period from date0 to n0.The model was implemented in Stella Architect software v2.1.1 (www.iseesystems.com) and exported to R software v4.1.1 with the help of deSolve (v1.28) and stats (v4.1.1) packages, and the Brent optimisation algorithm was implemented. For REMEDID I(n) and GTth, we obtained date0 = 13 December 2019 and R0 = 2.71 (CI = [2.33, 3.15]). Optimal solutions combine lower/higher R0 and earlier/later date0 (Fig. 4), which highlights the importance of providing an accurate first infection date to estimate R0. When the other three GT distributions were considered, we obtained similar date0, ranging from 12 to 17 December 2019, and R0 values ranging from 2.08 (CI = [1.86, 2.42]) to 2.85 (CI = [2.05, 3.25]; see Table 1). For official infections, date0 was set to 1 January 2020 for all cases, and R0 ranged from 1.81 (CI = [1.64, 2.07]) to 2.41 (CI = [1.80, 2.91]). The CI are estimated as in Eq. (4).Figure 4Root-mean square (RMS) of the residuals between infections from the model, which depends on date0 (x-axis) and R0 (y-axis), and REMEDID (from MoMo ED) and official infections. Parameters optimizing the model are highlighted in purple. RMS larger than 1275 (left panel) and 103 (right panel) are saturated in white.Full size image More

  • in

    Challenging the sustainability of urban beekeeping using evidence from Swiss cities

    1.Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). Action Plan for the Swiss Biodiversity Strategy (FOEN, Bern, 2017).2.Geldmann, J. & González-Varo, J. P. Conserving honey bees does not help wildlife. Science 359, 392–393 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Egerer, M. & Kowarik, I. Confronting the modern gordian knot of urban beekeeping. Trends Ecol. Evol. 35, 956–959 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    4.Herrera, C. M. Gradual replacement of wild bees by honeybees in flowers of the Mediterranean Basin over the last 50 years. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 287, 16–20 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    5.Torné-Noguera, A., Rodrigo, A., Osorio, S. & Bosch, J. Collateral effects of beekeeping: impacts on pollen-nectar resources and wild bee communities. Basic Appl. Ecol. 17, 199–209 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Magrach, A., González-Varo, J. P., Boiffier, M., Vilà, M. & Bartomeus, I. Honeybee spillover reshuffles pollinator diets and affects plant reproductive success. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1299–1307 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Prendergast, K. S., DIxon, K. W. & Bateman, P. W. Interactions between the introduced European honey bee and native bees in urban areas varies by year, habitat type and native bee guild. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 133, 725–743 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Herbertsson, L., Lindström, S. A. M., Rundlöf, M., Bommarco, R. & Smith, H. G. Competition between managed honeybees and wild bumblebees depends on landscape context. Basic Appl. Ecol. 17, 609–616 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Stevenson, P. C. et al. The state of the world’s urban ecosystems: what can we learn from trees, fungi, and bees? Plants People Planet 2, 482–498 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Ropars, L., Dajoz, I., Fontaine, C., Muratet, A. & Geslin, B. Wild pollinator activity negatively related to honey bee colony densities in urban context. PLoS ONE 14, e0222316 (2019).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Venter, Z. S. & Sydenham, M. A. K. Continental-scale land cover mapping at 10 m resolution over Europe (ELC10). Remote Sens. 13, 2301 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    12.Hardin, G. The tragedy of the commons. Science 162, 1243–1248 (1968).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    13.Tew, N. E. et al. Quantifying nectar production by flowering plants in urban and rural landscapes. J. Ecol. 109, 1747–1757 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    14.Baldock, K. C. R. et al. A systems approach reveals urban pollinator hotspots and conservation opportunities. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 363–373 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    15.Casanelles-Abella, J. et al. Applying predictive models to study the ecological properties of urban ecosystems: A case study in Zürich, Switzerland. Landsc. Urban Plan. 214, 104137 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    16.IPBES. Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, 2019).17.IUCN. IUCN’s Key Messages. First Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. In Convention on Biological Diversity Third meeting of the Open-Ended Working Group on the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (OEWG3) 15 (IUCN, 2021).18.Baldock, K. C. R. Opportunities and threats for pollinator conservation in global towns and cities. Curr. Opin. Insect Sci. 38, 63–71 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Henry, M. & Rodet, G. The apiary influence range: a new paradigm for managing the cohabitation of honey bees and wild bee communities. Acta Oecologica 105, 103555 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Ignatieva, M. & Hedblom, M. An alternative urban green carpet. Science 362, 148–149 (2018).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Vega, K. A. & Küffer, C. Promoting wildflower biodiversity in dense and green cities: The important role of small vegetation patches. Urban For. Urban Green. 62, 127165 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    22.Fabián, D., González, E., Sánchez Domínguez, M. V., Salvo, A. & Fenoglio, M. S. Towards the design of biodiverse green roofs in Argentina: assessing key elements for different functional groups of arthropods. Urban For. Urban Green. 61 (2021).23.Vega, K. A., Schläpfer-Miller, J. & Kueffer, C. Discovering the wild side of urban plants through public engagement. Plants People Planet 3, 389–401 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    24.Von Büren, R. S., Oehen, B., Kuhn, N. J. & Erler, S. High-resolution maps of Swiss apiaries and their applicability to study spatial distribution of bacterial honey bee brood diseases. PeerJ 2019, 1–21 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    25.QGIS Development Team. QGIS Geographic Information System (Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project, 2020).26.R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2019).27.R Studio Team. R studio: Integrated Development for R (RStudio, Boston, 2020).28.Casanelles-Abella, J. & Moretti M. Challenging the sustainability of urban beekeeping: evidence from Swiss cities. Envidat. https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.239 (2021).29.Casanelles-Abella, J. Code for the paper: Challenging the sustainability of urban beekeeping: evidence from Swiss cities (v. 1.0). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5618254 (2021).30.Swiss Fedearl Office of Topography Swisstopo. SWISSIMAGE 25. https://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/en/geodata/images/ortho/swissimage25.html#links (Swisstopo, 2021). More

  • in

    Plant neighborhood shapes diversity and reduces interspecific variation of the phyllosphere microbiome

    1.Lindow SE, Brandl MT. Microbiology of the phyllosphere. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2003;69:1875LP–1883.
    Google Scholar 
    2.Morella NM, Zhang X, Koskella B. Tomato seed-associated bacteria confer protection of seedlings against foliar disease caused by Pseudomonas syringae. Phytobiomes J. 2019;3:177–90.
    Google Scholar 
    3.Innerebner G, Knief C, Vorholt JA. Protection of Arabidopsis thaliana against leaf-pathogenic Pseudomonas syringae by Sphingomonas strains in a controlled model system. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2011;77:3202–10.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    4.Fu S-F, Sun P-F, Lu H-Y, Wei J-Y, Xiao H-S, Fang W-T, et al. Plant growth-promoting traits of yeasts isolated from the phyllosphere and rhizosphere of Drosera spatulata Lab. Fungal Biol. 2016;120:433–48.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Laforest-Lapointe I, Paquette A, Messier C, Kembel SW. Leaf bacterial diversity mediates plant diversity and ecosystem function relationships. Nature. 2017;546:145–7.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Lindow SE, Leveau JHJ. Phyllosphere microbiology. Curr Opin Biotechnol. 2002;13:238–43.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Fürnkranz M, Wanek W, Richter A, Abell G, Rasche F, Sessitsch A. Nitrogen fixation by phyllosphere bacteria associated with higher plants and their colonizing epiphytes of a tropical lowland rainforest of Costa Rica. ISME J. 2008;2:561–70.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Ottesen AR, Gorham S, Reed E, Newell MJ, Ramachandran P, Canida T, et al. Using a control to better understand phyllosphere microbiota. PLoS ONE. 2016;11:e0163482.PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Jones JDG, Dangl JL. The plant immune system. Nature. 2006;444:323–9.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Bodenhausen N, Bortfeld-miller M, Ackermann M, Vorholt JA. A synthetic community approach reveals plant genotypes affecting the phyllosphere microbiota. PLoS Biol. 2014; 10. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1004283.11.Horton MW, Bodenhausen N, Beilsmith K, Meng D, Muegge BD, Subramanian S, et al. Genome-wide association study of Arabidopsis thaliana leaf microbial community. Nat Commun. 2014;5:5320.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    12.Hacquard S, Spaepen S, Garrido-Oter R, Schulze-Lefert P. Interplay between innate immunity and the plant microbiota. Annu Rev Phytopathol. 2017;55:565–89.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    13.Zhalnina K, Louie KB, Hao Z, Mansoori N, Nunes U, Shi S et al. Dynamic root exudate chemistry and substrate preferences drive patterns in rhizosphere microbial community assembly. Nat Microbiol. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-018-0129-3.14.Humphrey PT, Whiteman NK. Insect herbivory reshapes a native leaf microbiome. Nat Ecol Evol. 2020;4:221–9.PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    15.Yadav RKP, Karamanoli K, Vokou D. Bacterial colonization of the phyllosphere of Mediterranean perennial species as influenced by leaf structural and chemical features. Micro Ecol. 2005;50:185–96.CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    16.Morella NM, Weng FCH, Joubert PM, Metcalf CJE, Lindow S, Koskella B. Successive passaging of a plant-associated microbiome reveals robust habitat and host genotype-dependent selection. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2020;117:1148–59.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Wagner MR, Busby PE, Balint-Kurti P. Analysis of leaf microbiome composition of near-isogenic maize lines differing in broad-spectrum disease resistance. N Phytol. 2019;225:2152–65.
    Google Scholar 
    18.Wagner MR, Lundberg DS, Del Rio TG, Tringe SG, Dangl JL, Mitchell-Olds T. Host genotype and age shape the leaf and root microbiomes of a wild perennial plant. Nat Commun. 2016;7:1–15.CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Horner-Devine MC, Bohannan BJM. Phylogenetic clustering and overdispersion in bacterial communities. Ecology. 2006;87:S100–8.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Kembel SW, O’Connor TK, Arnold HK, Hubbell SP, Wright SJ, Green JL. Relationships between phyllosphere bacterial communities and plant functional traits in a neotropical forest. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2014; 1–6.21.Burns AR, Stephens WZ, Stagaman K, Wong S, Rawls JF, Guillemin K, et al. Contribution of neutral processes to the assembly of gut microbial communities in the zebrafish over host development. ISME J. 2016;10:655–64.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    22.Sloan WT, Woodcock S, Lunn M, Head IM, Curtis TP. Modeling taxa-abundance distributions in microbial communities using environmental sequence data. Micro Ecol. 2007;53:443–55.
    Google Scholar 
    23.Laforest-Lapointe I, Messier C, Kembel SW. Host species identity, site and time drive temperate tree phyllosphere bacterial community structure. Microbiome 2016; 1–10.24.Schlaeppi K, Dombrowski N, Oter RG, Ver Loren van Themaat E, Schulze-Lefert P. Quantitative divergence of the bacterial root microbiota in Arabidopsis thaliana relatives. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2014;111:585LP–592.
    Google Scholar 
    25.Gallart M, Adair KL, Love J, Meason DF, Clinton PW, Xue J, et al. Host genotype and nitrogen form shape the root microbiome of Pinus radiata. Micro Ecol. 2018;75:419–33.CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Hambäck PA, Inouye BD, Andersson P, Underwood N. Effects of plant neighborhoods on plant–herbivore interactions: resource dilution and associational effects. Ecology. 2014;95:1370–83.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    27.Underwood N, Inouye BD, Hambäck PA. A conceptual framework for associational effects: when do neighbors matter and how would we know? Q Rev Biol. 2014;89:1–19.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    28.Barbosa P, Hines J, Kaplan I, Martinson H, Szczepaniec A, Szendrei Z. Associational resistance and associational susceptibility: having right or wrong neighbors. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2009;40:1–20.
    Google Scholar 
    29.Janzen DH. Herbivores and the number of tree species in tropical forests. Am Nat. 1970;104:501–28.
    Google Scholar 
    30.Connell JH. On the role of natural enemies in preventing competitive exclusion in some marine animals and in rain forest trees. in Den Boer PJ, Gradwell G, editors. Dynamics of populations. PUDOC, 1971, p. 298–312.31.Mangan SA, Schnitzer SA, Herre EA, Mack KML, Valencia MC, Sanchez EI, et al. Negative plant–soil feedback predicts tree-species relative abundance in a tropical forest. Nature. 2010;466:752–5.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    32.Miller EC, Perron GG, Collins CD. Plant‐driven changes in soil microbial communities influence seed germination through negative feedbacks. Ecol Evol. 2019;0:1–14.
    Google Scholar 
    33.Antonovics J, Ellstrand NC. Experimental studies of the evolutionary significance of sexual reproduction. I. A test of the frequency-dependent selection hypothesis. Evolution. 1984;38:103–15.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    34.Ellstrand NC, Antonovics J. Experimental studies of the evolutionary significance of sexual reproduction II. A test of the density-dependent selection hypothesis. Evolution. 1985;39:657–66.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    35.Naeem S, Tjossem SF, Byers D, Bristow C, Li S. Plant neighborhood diversity and production. Ecoscience. 1999;6:355–65.
    Google Scholar 
    36.Worrich A, Musat N. Associational effects in the microbial neighborhood. ISME J 2019; 2143–9.37.Copeland JK, Yuan L, Layeghifard M, Wang PW, Guttman DS. Seasonal community succession of the phyllosphere microbiome. Mol Plant Microbe Interact. 2015;28:274–85.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    38.Lajoie G, Kembel SW. Host neighborhood shapes bacterial community assembly and specialization on tree species across a latitudinal gradient. Ecol Monogr. 2021;0:1–18.
    Google Scholar 
    39.Lymperopoulou D, Adams R, Lindow SE, Löffler F. Contribution of vegetation to the microbial composition of nearby outdoor air. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2016;82:3822–33.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    40.Lindow SE, Andersen G. Influence of immigration on epiphytic bacterial populations on navel orange leaves. Appl Environ Microbiol. 1996;62:2978–87.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    41.Massoni J, Bortfeld-miller M, Widmer A, Vorholt JA. Capacity of soil bacteria to reach the phyllosphere and convergence of floral communities despite soil microbiota variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2021; 118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100150118.42.Leibold MA, Holyoak M, Mouquet N, Amarasekare P, Chase JM, Hoopes MF, et al. The metacommunity concept: a framework for multi-scale community ecology. Ecol Lett. 2004;7:601–13.
    Google Scholar 
    43.Fodelianakis S, Lorz A, Valenzuela-cuevas A, Barozzi A, Booth JM, Daffonchio D. Dispersal homogenizes communities via immigration even at low rates in a simplified synthetic bacterial metacommunity. Nat Commun. 2019;10:1–12.
    Google Scholar 
    44.Burns AR, Miller E, Agarwal M, Rolig AS, Milligan-Myhre K, Seredick S et al. Interhost dispersal alters microbiome assembly and can overwhelm host innate immunity in an experimental zebrafish model. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2017;114. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1702511114.45.Chelius MK, Triplett EW. The diversity of archaea and bacteria in association with the roots of Zea mays L. Micro Ecol. 2001;41:252–63.CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    46.Bodenhausen N, Horton MW, Bergelson J. Bacterial communities associated with the leaves and the roots of Arabidopsis thaliana. PLoS ONE. 2013;8:e56329.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    47.Lundberg DS, Yourstone S, Mieczkowski P, Jones CD, Dangl JL. Practical innovations for high-throughput amplicon sequencing. Nat Methods. 2013;10:999–1002.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Callahan BJ, McMurdie PJ, Rosen MJ, Han AW, Johnson AJA, Holmes SP. DADA2: high-resolution sample inference from Illumina amplicon data. Nat Methods. 2016;13:581.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    49.R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. 2020. http://cran.r-project.org.50.Morgan M, Anders S, Lawrence M, Aboyoun P, Pagès H, Gentleman R. ShortRead: a bioconductor package for input, quality assessment and exploration of high-throughput sequence data. Bioinformatics. 2009;25:2607–8.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    51.Pagès H, Aboyoun P, Gentleman R, DebRoy S. Biostrings: efficient manipulation of biological strings. 2020.52.McMurdie P, Holmes S. phyloseq: An R package for reproducible interactive analysis and graphics of microbiome census data. PLoS ONE 2013; 8. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061217tle.53.Wang Q, Garrity GM, Tiedje JM, Cole JR. Naive bayesian classifier for rapid assignment of rRNA sequences into the new bacterial taxonomy. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2007;73:5261–7.CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    54.Quast C, Pruesse E, Yilmaz P, Gerken J, Schweer T, Yarza P, et al. The SILVA ribosomal RNA gene database project: improved data processing and web-based tools. Nucleic Acids Res. 2013;41:D590–D596.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    55.Davis NM, Proctor DM, Holmes SP, Relman DA, Callahan BJ. Simple statistical identification and removal of contaminant sequences in marker-gene and metagenomics data. Microbiome. 2018;6:226.PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Morella NM, Gomez AL, Wang G, Leung MS, Koskella B. The impact of bacteriophages on phyllosphere bacterial abundance and composition. Mol Ecol. 2018;27:2025–38.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    57.Oksanen J, Blanchet FG, Roeland K, Legendre P, Minchin P, O’Hara RB et al. vegan: Community ecology package. 2015. http://cran.r-project.org.58.Anderson MJ. A new method for non-parametric multivariate analysis of variance. Austral Ecol. 2001;26:32–46.
    Google Scholar 
    59.De Cáceres M, Legendre P. Associations between species and groups of sites: indices and statistical inference. Ecology. 2009;90:3566–74.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    60.Ersts PJ. Geographic Distance Matrix Generator. http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/gdmg.61.Sprockett D. reltools: Microbiome Amplicon Analysis and Visualization. 2021.62.Sloan WT, Lunn M, Woodcock S, Head IM, Nee S, Curtis TP. Quantifying the roles of immigration and chance in shaping prokaryote community structure. Environ Microbiol. 2006;8:732–40.PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Wright ES. Using DECIPHER v2.0 to analyze big biological sequence data in R. R J. 2016;8:352–9.
    Google Scholar 
    64.Schliep KP. phangorn: phylogenetic analysis in R. Bioinformatics. 2011;27:592–3.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    65.Kembel SW, Cowan PD, Helmus MR, Cornwell WK, Morlon H, Ackerly DD, et al. Picante: R tools for integrating phylogenies and ecology. Bioinformatics. 2010;26:1463–4.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    66.Koskella B. The phyllosphere. Curr Biol. 2020;30:R1143–R1146.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Chaparro JM, Badri DV, Vivanco JM. Rhizosphere microbiome assemblage is affected by plant development. ISME J. 2014;8:790–803.CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    68.İnceoğlu Ö, Al-Soud WA, Salles JF, Semenov AV, van Elsas JD. Comparative analysis of bacterial communities in a potato field as determined by pyrosequencing. PLoS ONE. 2011;6:e23321.PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    69.Christian N, Herre EA, Mejia LC, Clay K. Exposure to the leaf litter microbiome of healthy adults protects seedlings from pathogen damage. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci. 2017;284:20170641.
    Google Scholar 
    70.Leigh EG, Davidar P, Dick CW, Terborgh J, Puyravaud J-P, ter Steege H, et al. Why do some tropical forests have so many species of trees? Biotropica. 2004;36:447–73.
    Google Scholar 
    71.Hyatt LA, Rosenberg MS, Howard TG, Bole G, Fang W, Anastasia J, et al. The distance dependence prediction of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis: a meta-analysis. Oikos. 2003;103:590–602.
    Google Scholar 
    72.Carson W, Anderson J, Leigh E, Schnitzer S. Challenges associated with testing and falsifying the Janzen_Connell hypothesis: a review and critique. In: Carson W, Schnitzer SA, editors. Tropical forest community ecology. Wiley Blackwell; 2008. p. 210–41. More

  • in

    The formation of avian montane diversity across barriers and along elevational gradients

    Genome sequencing and assemblyGenome assemblies ranged in size from 799.9 Mbp in Melanocharis versteri to 1053.5 Mbp in Sericornis nouhuysi. The number of scaffolds ranged from 14,086 scaffolds in Melipotes ater to 87,957 scaffolds in Ficedula hyperythra and N50 ranged between ca. 40 Kbp to and 25 Mbp. Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs (BUSCO) analyses of genome completeness ranged from a high proportion of complete BUSCOs in Melipotes ater, 86.8% to only 66.7% complete BUSCOs in Rhipidura albolimbata. For most species, the proportions of complete BUSCOs were 75–80%. Overall, the proportion of missing BUSCOs was low, ranging from 6.6% in Melipotes ater to 15.2% in Rhipidura albolimbata (see Supplementary Table 1 for all genome assembly statistics and Supplementary Fig. 1 for the number of SNP variants per species).Kinship analyses of individuals within populationsSampling of closely related individuals can dramatically bias estimates of population structure and demographics. Two Pachycephala schlegelii individuals (A117 and A118) showed a pairwise kinship coefficient of 0.144, indicative of being half-siblings. The two individuals were collected at the same locality on the same date. Similarly, two Ifrita kowaldi individuals (D116 and D117) showed a pairwise kinship coefficient of 0.135, also suggestive of being half-siblings. In this case, the individuals were collected on the same sampling locality on two consecutive days. To not bias downstream demographic analyses, one of the P. schlegelii (A118) and one of the I. kowaldi (D117) individuals were excluded from all subsequent analyses. For all other species, no closely related individuals were identified.Genetic differentiationEstimated levels of differentiation between populations were initially based on three approaches; (i) calculation of FST (the fixation index), which quantifies the degree of genetic differentiation between populations based on the variation in allele frequencies, ranging between 0 (complete mixing of individuals) and 1 (complete separation of populations) (Fig. 1), (ii) Standardized pairwise FST used to conduct a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to visualize population structure (Supplementary Fig. 1) and (iii) Admixture analysis as implemented in STRUCTURE (a clustering algorithm that infers the most likely number of groups [K]), in which individuals are grouped into clusters according to the proportion of their ancestry components (Supplementary Fig. 1). As a preliminary analysis, we calculated FST and constructed PCA plots for the four congeneric (incl. Sericornis/Aethomyias [until recently placed in the genus Sericornis]) species pairs in our study (Supplementary Fig. 2), which were aligned using the same reference genome. This was done to ascertain that no samples had been misidentified and to gauge levels of differentiation between distinct species. All species were genetically well separated and FST values ranged from 0.08 for the two Ptiloprora species to 0.20 for the two Ficedula species.For five out of six species from Buru/Seram, genetic differentiation (FST) was high between islands (Fig. 1), and comparable to differentiation between named congeneric species in this study (e.g. Ptiloprora and Melipotes); Ceyx lepidus (FST = 0.16), Thapsinillas affinis (FST = 0.15), Ficedula buruensis (FST = 0.13) and Pachycephala macrorhyncha (FST = 0.09). In contrast, differentiation in Ficedula hyperythra was consistent with population-level differentiation (FST = 0.04). In all cases, individuals from Buru and Seram were clearly differentiated in the PCA and STRUCTURE plots (Supplementary Fig. 1A). For Ceyx lepidus, Ficedula buruensis and Pachycephala macrorhyncha, samples were collected at multiple elevations and we therefore calculated genetic differentiation between elevations (Buru: 1097 m versus 1435 m and Seram: 1000 m versus 1300 m) to determine any potential parapatric differentiation along the gradients. In all possible comparisons, FST values did not differ significantly from 0. Moreover, PCA plots showed that samples did not cluster according to elevation (Supplementary Fig. 3A).Three of the thirteen New Guinean population pairs occurring in Mount Wilhelm and Huon showed relatively high genetic divergences: Melipotes fumigatus/ater (FST = 0.08), Paramythia montium (FST = 0.09) and Ifrita kowaldi (FST = 0.07) (Fig. 1) with populations clearly separated (Supplementary Fig. 1). By contrast, the two lowland species Toxorhamphus novaeguineae and Melilestes megarhynchus showed little genetic differentiation, FST = 0.00. For the remaining species, genetic differentiation between Mount Wilhelm and Huon ranged between FST = 0.01–0.05. Despite this moderate level of genetic differentiation, the populations of Mount Wilhelm and Huon could be clearly distinguished in the PCA plots. In all cases STRUCTURE suggested a scenario with K = 2 with some mixing of individuals, except for Rhipidura albolimbata, in which K = 1 was suggested.For five bird species we included an additional population from Mount Scratchley, which is also situated in the Central Range but ~400 km to the southeast of Mount Wilhelm. Genetic differentiation of this population from the other two populations was comparable with that between Mount Wilhelm and Huon. The highest genetic differentiation was found in Paramythia montium (FST = 0.10 both between Mount Wilhelm and Mount Scratchley and between Huon and Mount Scratchley). In the case of Peneothello sigillata, the Mount Scratchley population appeared genetically well-differentiated from both the populations of Mount Wilhelm (FST = 0.06) and Huon (FST = 0.07). In both cases, STRUCTURE suggested a scenario of K = 3, with individual assignments matching the three geographically circumscribed populations. For Pachycephala schlegelii, genetic differentiation was relatively high between Huon and Mount Scratchley (FST = 0.05), but low between Mount Wilhelm and Mount Scratchley (FST = 0.01). Accordingly, STRUCTURE suggested a scenario with K = 2 groups. For the remaining two species Sericornis nouhuysi showed some differentiation (FST = 0.03) between Mount Wilhelm and Huon and Aethomyias papuensis showed minor differentiation (FST = 0.02 between Mount Scratchley and Huon (Supplementary Table 2), but for both species, STRUCTURE suggested a scenario of K = 2 with considerable mixing of individuals between populations.Samples from Mount Wilhelm were collected at elevations ranging from 1700 to 3700 m, again allowing us to test for differences within populations on a single slope, a finding that would be consistent with incipient parapatric speciation. No species showed significant differences in FST when comparing individuals from different elevations, and concordantly there was little clustering of individuals by elevation in the PCA plots. Even when individuals were collected as far as 2000 elevational meters apart (as in the case of Origma robusta), genetic differentiation was low (FST = 0.01). In Huon, all samples were collected at the same elevation, except for Ifrita kowaldi, for which genetic differentiation of FST = 0.03 was found between individuals collected at 2300 m and 2950 m (Supplementary Fig. 3B, Supplementary Table 2). These analyses however, suffer from very small sample sizes that hinder a thorough analysis of parapatric speciation events. Furthermore, we note that divergence with gene flow may not manifest as a genome-wide phenomenon (at least, not until the taxa are so differentiated that gene flow has ceased). Instead, it may proceed via selection acting to create small ‘islands of differentiation’ within the genome against a background of negligible differentiation22,23. Such analyses require large sample sizes and are therefore not possible herein.Correlations between genetic divergence and elevationIf lineages colonize mountains from the lowlands, followed by range contraction and differentiation in the highlands, we would expect a signature of larger genetic differentiation (FST) between populations inhabiting higher elevations. We found no relationship between genetic differentiation (FST) and the altitudinal floor (the lowest elevation at which a species/population occurs) for the five Moluccan species, but for all New Guinean taxa with the exception of Melipotes fumigatus/ater we found a significant positive correlation (r = 0.83, p  More

  • in

    Local adaptation and colonization are potential factors affecting sexual competitiveness and mating choice in Anopheles coluzzii populations

    1.Kawecki, T. J. & Ebert, D. Conceptual issues in local adaptation. Ecol. Lett. 7, 1225–1241 (2004).
    Google Scholar 
    2.Fisher, T. W. et al. Handbook of Biological Control: Principles and Applications of Biological Control (Academic Press, London, 1999).
    Google Scholar 
    3.Dyck, V. A., Hendrichs, J. & Robinson, A. S. Sterile insect technique: Principles and practice in area-wide integrated pest management. In Sterile Insect Technique: Principles and Practice in Area-Wide Integrated Pest Management. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4051-2. (2005)4.Etges, W. J. & Noor, M. A. F. Genetics of Mate Choice: From Sexual Selection to Sexual Isolation. (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002).5.Harbach, R. E. Review of the internal classification of the genus Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae): The foundation for comparative systematics and phylogenetic research. Bull. Entomol. Res. 84, 331–342 (1994).
    Google Scholar 
    6.Rogers, D. J., Randolph, S. E., Snow, R. W. & Hay, S. I. Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria. Nature 415, 710–715 (2002).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Bayoh, M. N. N., Thomas, C. J. J. & Lindsay, S. W. W. Mapping distributions of chromosomal forms of Anopheles gambiae in West Africa using climate data. Med. Vet. Entomol. 15, 267–274 (2001).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    8.Namountougou, M. et al. Multiple insecticide resistance in Anopheles gambiae s. l. Populations from Burkina Faso. West Africa. PLoS One 7, e48412 (2012).CAS 
    PubMed 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    9.Benedict, M. Q. & Robinson, A. S. The first releases of transgenic mosquitoes: An argument for the sterile insect technique. Trends Parasitol. 19, 349–355 (2003).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Maïga, H. et al. Mating competitiveness of sterile male Anopheles coluzzii in large cages. Malar. J. 13, 460 (2014).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Clements, A. N. The Biology of Mosquitoes. Sensory Reception and Behaviour Behaviour, Vol. 2. (Wallingford, 1999).12.Doug, P. et al. Genetic and environmental factors associated with laboratory rearing affect survival and assortative mating but not overall mating success in Anopheles gambiae Sensu Stricto. PLoS One 8, e82631 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    13.Baeshen, R. et al. Differential effects of inbreeding and selection on male reproductive phenotype associated with the colonization and laboratory maintenance of Anopheles gambiae. Malar. J. 13, 19 (2014).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    14.Bargielowski, I., Kaufmann, C., Alphey, L., Reiter, P. & Koella, J. Flight performance and teneral energy reserves of two genetically-modified and one wild-type strain of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 12, 1053–1058 (2012).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    15.Harris, A. F. et al. Field performance of engineered male mosquitoes. Nat. Biotechnol. 29, 1034–1037 (2011).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    16.Alphey, L. et al. Genetic control of Aedes mosquitoes. Pathogens and Global Health 107, 170–179 (2013).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Lehmann, T. et al. Tracing the origin of the early wet-season Anopheles coluzzii in the Sahel. Evol. Appl. 10, 704–717 (2017).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    18.Huestis, D. L. et al. Windborne long-distance migration of malaria mosquitoes in the Sahel. Nature 574, 404–408 (2019).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Wondji, C., Simard, F. & Fontenille, D. Evidence for genetic differentiation between the molecular forms M and S within the Forest chromosomal form of Anopheles gambiae in an area of sympatry. Insect Mol. Biol. 11, 11–19 (2002).
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    20.Simard, F., Nchoutpouen, E., Toto, J. C. & Fontenille, D. Geographic distribution and breeding site preference of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Cameroon, Central Africa. J. Med. Entomol. 42, 726–731 (2005).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    21.Roux, O., Diabaté, A. & Simard, F. Divergence in threat sensitivity among aquatic larvae of cryptic mosquito species. J. Anim. Ecol. 83, 702–711 (2014).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    22.Costantini, C. et al. Living at the edge: Biogeographic patterns of habitat segregation conform to speciation by niche expansion in Anopheles gambiae. BMC Ecol. 9 (2009).23.The Anopheles gambiae 1000 Genomes Consortium. Genetic diversity of the African malaria vector Anopheles gambiae. Nature 552, 96–100 (2017).PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    24.Oliva, C. F., Benedict, M. Q., Lempérière, G. & Gilles, J. Laboratory selection for an accelerated mosquito sexual development rate. Malar. J. 10, 135 (2011).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Munhenga, G. et al. Evaluating the potential of the sterile insect technique for malaria control: Relative fitness and mating compatibility between laboratory colonized and a wild population of Anopheles arabiensis from the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Parasit. Vectors 4, 208 (2011).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    26.Lee, H. L. et al. Mating compatibility and competitiveness of transgenic and wild type Aedes aegypti (L.) under contained semi-field conditions. Transgenic Res. 22, 47–57 (2013).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    27.Damiens, D. et al. Cross-Mating compatibility and competitiveness among Aedes albopictus strains from distinct geographic origins-implications for future application of sit programs in the south west Indian ocean islands. PLoS One 11, e0163788 (2016).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    28.Zheng, X. et al. Incompatible and sterile insect techniques combined eliminate mosquitoes. Nature 572, 56–61 (2019).CAS 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    29.Aguilar, R. et al. Genome-wide analysis of transcriptomic divergence between laboratory colony and field Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes of the M and S molecular forms. Insect Mol. Biol. 19, 695–705 (2010).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    30.Sawadogo, P. S. et al. Swarming behaviour in natural populations of Anopheles gambiae and An. coluzzii: Review of 4 years survey in rural areas of sympatry, Burkina Faso (West Africa). Acta Trop. 130, 24–34 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    31.Poda, S. B. et al. Sex aggregation and species segregation cues in swarming mosquitoes: Role of ground visual markers. Parasit. Vectors 12, 589 (2019).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    32.Ekechukwu, N. E. et al. Heterosis increases fertility, fecundity, and survival of laboratory-produced F1 hybrid males of the malaria mosquito Anopheles coluzzii. G3 Genes Genomes Genet. 5, 2693–2709 (2015).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    33.Ng’habi, K. R. et al. Colonization of malaria vectors under semi-field conditions as a strategy for maintaining genetic and phenotypic similarity with wild populations. Malar. J. 14, 10 (2015).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    34.Huho, B. J. et al. Nature beats nurture: A case study of the physiological fitness of free-living and laboratory-reared male Anopheles gambiae s.l. J. Exp. Biol. 210, 2939–2947 (2007).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    35.Ferguson, H. M., John, B., Ng, K. & Knols, B. G. J. Redressing the sex imbalance in knowledge of vector biology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 202–209 (2005).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    36.Hassan, M., El-Motasim, W. M., Ahmed, R. T. & El-Sayed, B. B. Prolonged colonisation, irradiation, and transportation do not impede mating vigour and competitiveness of male Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes under semi-field conditions in Northern Sudan. Malar. World J. 1 (2010).37.Yamada, H., Vreysen, M. J. B., Gilles, J. R. L., Munhenga, G. & Damiens, D. D. The effects of genetic manipulation, dieldrin treatment and irradiation on the mating competitiveness of male Anopheles arabiensis in field cages. Malar. J. 13, 1–10 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    38.Munhenga, G. et al. Mating competitiveness of sterile genetic sexing strain males (GAMA) under laboratory and semi-field conditions : Steps towards the use of the Sterile Insect Technique to control the major malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in South Africa. Parasit. Vectors 9, 1–12 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    39.Assogba, B. S. et al. Characterization of swarming and mating behaviour between Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles melas in a sympatry area of Benin. Acta Trop. 132S, 1–11 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    40.Charlwood, J. D. et al. The swarming and mating behaviour of Anopheles gambiae s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae) from São Tomé Island. J. Vector Ecol. 27, 178–183 (2002).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    41.Diabate, A. et al. Natural swarming behaviour of the molecular M form of Anopheles gambiae. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 97, 713–716 (2003).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    42.Manoukis, N. C. et al. Structure and dynamics of male swarms of Anopheles gambiae. J. Med. Entomol. 46, 227–235 (2009).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    43.Aldersley, A. et al. Too ‘sexy’ for the field? Paired measures of laboratory and semi-field performance highlight variability in the apparent mating fitness of Aedes aegypti transgenic strains. Parasit. Vectors 12, 357 (2019).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    44.Pantoja-Sánchez, H., Gomez, S., Velez, V., Avila, F. W. & Alfonso-Parra, C. Precopulatory acoustic interactions of the New World malaria vector Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae). Parasit. Vectors 12, 386 (2019).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    45.Gibson, G., Warren, B. & Russell, I. J. Humming in tune: Sex and species recognition by mosquitoes on the wing. JARO 540, 527–540 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    46.Pennetier, C., Warren, B., Dabiré, K. R., Russell, I. J. & Gibson, G. ‘Singing on the wing’ as a mechanism for species recognition in the malarial mosquito Anopheles gambiae. Curr. Biol. 20, 131–136 (2010).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    47.Caputo, B. et al. Comparative analysis of epicuticular lipid profiles of sympatric and allopatric field populations of Anopheles gambiae s.s. molecular forms and An. arabiensis from Burkina Faso (West Africa). Insect Biochem. Mol. Biol. 37, 389–398 (2007).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Ferguson, H. M. & Read, A. F. Genetic and environmental determinants of malaria parasite virulence in mosquitoes. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 269, 1217–1224 (2002).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    49.Niang, A. et al. Semi-field and indoor setups to study malaria mosquito swarming behavior. Parasit. Vectors 12, 446 (2019).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    50.Santolamazza, F. et al. Insertion polymorphisms of SINE200 retrotransposons within speciation islands of Anopheles gambiae molecular forms. Malar. J. 7, 163 (2008).
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    51.Vantaux, A. et al. Larval nutritional stress affects vector life history traits and human malaria transmission. Sci. Rep. 6, 36778 (2016).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    52.Crawley, M. J. The R Book. (Ltd, Sons, 2012). https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470515075.53.Hothorn, T., Bretz, F., Westfall, P. & Heiberger, R. M. Package ‘multcomp’ title simultaneous inference in general parametric models. Biom. J. 50, 346–363 (2016).
    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Newly identified HMO-2011-type phages reveal genomic diversity and biogeographic distributions of this marine viral group

    General characterization of seven newly isolated HMO-2011-type phagesIn this study, we used four Roseobacter strains (FZCC0040, FZCC0042, FZCC0012, and FZCC0089) and one SAR11 strain (HTCC1062) to isolate phages. FZCC0040 and FZCC0042 belong to the Roseobacter RCA lineage [22], FZCC0012 shares 99.8% 16S rRNA gene identity with Roseobacter strain HIMB11 [57], and FZCC0089 belongs to a newly identified Roseobacter lineage located close to HIMB11 and SAG-019 lineages (Supplementary Fig. 1).A total of seven phages were newly isolated and analyzed in this study (Table 1). The complete phage genomes range in size from 52.7 to 54.9 kb, harbor 62 to 84 open reading frames (ORFs), and feature a G + C content ranging from 33.8 to 48.6%. Compared to other HMO-2011-type phages, pelagiphage HTVC033P has a relatively lower G + C content of 33.8%, similar to the G + C content of its host HTCC1062 (29.0%) and of other described pelagiphages [21, 26,27,28]. The G + C content of other six roseophages ranges from 42.2 to 48.6%, which is also similar to the G + C content of the hosts they infect (44.8 to 54.1%).Despite their distinct host origins, these phage genomes show considerable similarity in terms of gene content and genome architecture (Fig. 1). They all display clear similarity with the previously reported SAR116 phage HMO-2011 [20] and HMO-2011-type RCA phages [22]. Overall, these phages share 19.2 to 79.1% of their genes with previously reported HMO-2011-type phages and all contain homologues of HMO-2011-type DNA replication and metabolism genes, structural genes, and DNA packaging genes. Moreover, their overall genome structure is conserved with that of HMO-2011-type phages. Considering these observations, we tentatively classified these seven phages into the HMO-2011-type group. Of the 11 currently known HMO-2011-type isolates, one infects the SAR116 strain IMCC1322, one infects the SAR11 strain HTCC1062, and the remaining nine all infect Roseobacter strains; this suggest that HMO-2011-type phages infect diverse bacterial hosts. HTVC033P is the first pelagiphage identified to belong to the HMO-2011-type viral group. Our study has also increased the number of known types of pelagiphages. To date, pelagiphages belonging to a total of nine distinct viral groups have been isolated and analyzed [21, 26,27,28].Fig. 1: Alignment and comparison of genomes of HMO-2011-type isolates and representative HMO-2011-type MVGs from major subgroups.HMO-2011-type phage isolates are shown in red. Phages isolated in this study are indicated with red asterisks. Predicted open reading frames (ORFs) are represented by arrows, with the left or right arrow points indicating the direction of their transcription. The numbers inside the arrows indicate ORF numbers. ORFs annotated with known functions are marked using distinct colors according to their functions. HMO-2011-type core genes are indicated with blue asterisks. The color of the shading connecting homologous genes indicates the level of amino acid identity between the genes. To clearly present the genomic comparison, several MVGs were rearranged to start from the same gene as in the HMO-2011-type phages. DNAP DNA polymerase, Endo endonuclease, RNR ribonucleoside-triphosphate reductase, PhoH phosphate starvation-inducible protein, MazG MazG nucleotide pyrophosphohydrolase domain protein, ThyX thymidylate synthase, GRX glutaredoxin, TerS terminase small subunit, TerL terminase large subunit.Full size imageIdentification and sequence analyses of HMO-2011-type MVGsTo identify HMO-2011-type MVGs, we performed a metagenomic mining and retrieved a total of 207 HMO-2011-type MVGs (≥50% genome completeness) from viromes in the worldwide ocean, from tropical to polar oceans (Supplementary Table 1). These MVGs range in size from 29.2 to 67.9 kb and their G + C content range from 31.3 to 52.4%. In addition, 45 HMO-2011-type MVGs were also identified from some non-marine habitats, suggesting that HMO-2011-type phages are widely distributed worldwide (Supplementary Table 1).Genomic analysis confirmed that all HMO-2011-type MVGs exhibit genomic synteny with HMO-2011-type phages (Fig. 1). Although some of these HMO-2011-type MVGs are highly similar to their cultivated relatives, most MVGs appear to have more genomic variations. To resolve the evolutionary relationship among the HMO-2011-type phages, a phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the concatenated sequences of five core genes. We found that HMO-2011-type phages are evolutionarily diverse and can be separated into at least 10 well-supported subgroups ( >2 members), with 140 MVGs clustering into previously identified HMO-2011-type groups (subgroups I and III in Fig. 2A) [22], and the remaining 67 MVGs forming new subgroups (Fig. 2A). Among these HMO-2011-type subgroups, three contain cultivated representatives (subgroups I, III, and IX). Subgroup I contains the greatest number of phages, including six cultivated representatives and 123 MVGs (Fig. 2A). The cultivated representatives in subgroup I include a phage that infect SAR116 strain and five phages that infect Roseobacter strains. Subgroup III contains four cultivated representatives that infect two Roseobacter strains, and 17 MVGs. Pelagiphage HTVC033P and nine MVGs form subgroup IX. Other subgroups have no cultivated representatives yet. The results of phylogenomic analysis showed that subgroups I to VI are closely related, whereas subgroups VII to X are located on a separate branch and are more distinct from the subgroups I to VI, which suggests that these subgroups are more evolutionarily distant. A phylogenomic-based approach with GL-UVAB workflow [53] was also performed to cluster these HMO-2011-type genomes, which showed similar grouping results (Supplementary Fig. 2).Fig. 2: Phylogenomic and shared-gene analyses of HMO-2011-type phages.A A maximum-likelihood tree was constructed using concatenated sequences of five hallmark genes. HMO-2011-type phages were grouped into 10 subgroups based on the phylogeny. Shading is used to indicate the subgroups. HMO-2011-type phage isolates are shown in red. Genomes containing an integrase gene are indicated by red triangles. The G + C content and completeness of the genomes are indicated. Scale bar indicates the number of amino acid substitutions per site. B Heatmap showing the percentage of shared genes between HMO-2011-type genomes. Phages in the same subgroup are boxed.Full size imageA previous study suggested the use of the percentage of shared proteins as a means of defining phage taxonomic ranks and proposed that phages with ≥20 and ≥40% orthologous proteins in common can be grouped at the taxonomic ranks of subfamily and genus, respectively [58]. Overall, most of the calculated percentages between HMO-2011-type genomes fall within the 20 to 100% range and most of the percentages between genomes within the same subgroup fall within the 40 to 100% range (Fig. 2B). Therefore, our results suggest that the HMO-2011-type is roughly a subfamily-level phage taxonomic group containing at least ten genus-level subgroups in the Podoviridae family.Conserved genomic structure and variation in HMO-2011-type phagesOf the 1235 orthologous protein groups (≥2 members) identified in HMO-2011-type genomes, only 254 proteins groups could be assigned putative biological functions (Supplementary Table 2). Comparative genomic analysis clearly revealed the conserved functional module structure of all HMO-2011-type genomes. All HMO-2011-type phage genomes can be roughly divided into the DNA metabolism and replication module, structural module and DNA packaging module (Fig. 1). Most of the homologous genes are scattered in similar loci of the HMO-2011-type genomes. Core genome analysis based on complete HMO-2011-type genomes revealed that HMO-2011-type genomes share a common set of ten core genes (Fig. 1). These core genes are mostly genes related to essential function in phage replication and development, including genes encoding DNA helicase, DNA primase, DNA polymerase (DNAP), portal protein, capsid protein, and terminase small and large subunits (TerL and TerS) as well as several genes with no known function, suggesting that phages in this group employ similar overall infection and propagation processes (Fig. 1).Most members in subgroups I and III and one member in subgroup II possess a tyrosine integrase gene (int) located upstream of the DNA replication and metabolism module, whereas all subgroup IV to X genomes contain no identifiable lysogeny-related genes. This result suggests that members of subgroups IV to X might be obligate lytic phages. Integrase genes typically occur in the genomes of temperate phages and are responsible for site-specific recombination between phage and host bacterial genomes [59, 60]. In subgroup III, RCA phage CRP-3 has been experimentally demonstrated to be capable of integrating into the host genome [22]. Thus, certain int-containing HMO-2011-type phages are also likely to be temperate phages.In the DNA metabolism and replication modules, genes encoding DNA primase, DNA helicase, DNAP, ribonucleotide reductase (RNR), and endonuclease can be identified; and DNA helicase, DNA primase, and DNAP are core to all HMO-2011-type phages. All reported HMO-2011-type phages contain an atypical DNAP, in which a partial DnaJ central domain is located between the exonuclease domain and the DNA polymerase domain [20, 22]. The Escherichia coli DnaJ protein, a co-chaperone [61], has been shown to be involved in diverse functions [62] and to be critical for the replication of phage Lambda [63,64,65]. The sequence analysis revealed that DNAP sequences of these seven new HMO-2011-type phages and 207 MVGs also present this unusual domain structure and contain two repeats of the CXXCXGXG motifs involved in zinc binding [66] in the partial DnaJ domain (Supplementary Fig. 3). RNR gene is frequently detected in subgroups I, II, III, IV, V, and X genomes but not in the other subgroup genomes. RNRs, which are widely distributed in diverse phage genomes, are involved in catalyzing the reduction of ribonucleotides to deoxyribonucleotides, and thus play a crucial role in providing deoxyribonucleoside triphosphates for phage DNA biosynthesis and repair [67,68,69]. RNR genes clustered with the RNR gene in phage HMO-2011 were previously reported to dominate the class II viral RNRs in examined marine viromes [69]. In the remaining two modules, genes involved in phage structure (e.g., genes encoding capsid and portal proteins), packaging of DNA (TerL and TerS genes), and cell lysis were detected. The proteins encoded by these genes play key roles in phage morphogenesis and virion release.Examination of the distribution of the orthologous groups among the subgroups revealed clear pan-genome differences in various subgroups (Fig. 3). Most subgroups harbor subgroup-specific genes not identified in other subgroups, although  no function has yet been assigned to most of these genes. Notably, the phages in subgroups VII, VIII, and IX possess genomic features that differentiate them from phages in other subgroups, specifically with regard to the G + C content and gene content. The members of these three subgroups are closely related to each other in the phylogenetic tree and harbor several subgroup-specific genes. The G + C content of the phage genomes in these subgroups ranges from 31.9 to 35.4%, significantly smaller than other subgroups but similar to the G + C content of SAR11 bacteria and other known pelagiphages. HTVC033P is the only cultivated representative of subgroup IX. The aforementioned results suggest that the phages in subgroup VII, VIII, and IX might have related bacterial hosts and are highly likely to be pelagiphages. The host prediction using RaFAH tool also assigned Pelagibacter as their potential hosts (Supplementary Table 1). Subgroup X is located near these three subgroups in the phylogenetic tree, and the G + C content of the phages in this subgroup ranges from 34.4 to 39.0%. The host prediction assigned Roseobacter as their potential hosts. The hosts of this subgroup still remain to be experimentally investigated.Fig. 3: Distribution and functional classification of orthologous protein groups across HMO-2011-type genomes.Only orthogroups containing >10 members or showing subgroup-specific features are shown. Subgroup-specific genes are boxed in red. Genes that are absent in a specific subgroup are boxed in orange.Full size imageMetabolic capabilities of HMO-2011-type phagesAll HMO-2011-type phage genomes harbor several host-derived auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) potentially involved in diverse metabolic processes. Some AMGs in HMO-2011-type phages have been discussed previously [20, 22].Subgroups VII, VIII, IX, and X possess distinct AMGs as compared with the other subgroups. For example, the genes encoding FAD-dependent thymidylate synthase (ThyX, PF02511) and MazG pyrophosphohydrolase domains are absent in all subgroups VII, VIII, IX, and X genomes but frequently detected in other subgroup genomes. ThyX protein is essential for the conversion of dUMP to dTMP mediated by an FAD coenzyme and is therefore a key enzyme involved in DNA synthesis [70, 71]. The thyX gene is commonly found in microbial genomes and phage genomes. Phage-encoded ThyX has been suggested to compensate for the loss of host-encoded ThyA and thus play crucial roles in phage nucleic acid synthesis and metabolism during infection [72]. Except in the case of subgroups VII, VIII, IX, and X genomes, the mazG gene, which encodes a nucleoside triphosphate pyrophosphohydrolase is sporadically distributed in HMO-2011-type genomes. MazG protein is predicted to be a regulator of nutrient stress and programmed cell death [73] and has been hypothesized to promote phage survival by keeping the host alive during phage propagation [74]. The Escherichia coli MazG can interfere with the function of the MazEF toxin–antitoxin system by decreasing the cellular level of (p)ppGpp [73]. However, a recent study showed that a cyanophage MazG has no binding or hydrolysis activity against alarmone (p)ppGpp but has high hydrolytic activity toward dGTP and dCTP, and it was speculated to play a role in hydrolyzing high G + C host genome for phage replication [75]. Whether the MazG proteins encoded by HMO-2011-type phages play a similar role in phage propagation remained to be investigated.Five MVGs in subgroup I contain a gene encoding a DraG-like family ADP-ribosyl hydrolase (ARH). In cellular ADP-ribosylation systems, ARH catalyzes the cleavage of the ADP-ribose moiety, and thereby counteract the effects of ADP-ribosyl transferases [76]. It has been reported that ARH in Rhodospirillum rubrum regulates the nitrogen fixation [77]. However, the function of this phage-encoded ARH in the phage propagation process remains unclear.We also observed that several MVGs possess genes involved in iron–sulfur (Fe–S) cluster biosynthesis, including an Fe–S cluster assembly scaffold gene (iscU) that involved in Fe–S cluster assembly and transfer [78] and an Fe–S cluster insertion protein gene (erpA). Fe–S cluster participates in a wide variety of cellular biological processes [79]. The discovery of these genes suggests that these phages may play important roles in Fe–S cluster biogenesis and function.The gene encoding sodium-dependent phosphate transport protein (PF02690) has been identified in eight subgroup I genomes. The Na/Pi cotransporter family protein is responsible for high-affinity, sodium-dependent Pi uptake, and thus the protein plays a critical role in maintaining phosphate homeostasis [80]. This gene might function in the transport of phosphate into cells during phage infection. The presence of Na/Pi cotransporter genes suggests that some HMO-2011-type phages may have the potential to regulate host phosphate uptake in phosphate-limited ocean environments in order to benefit phage replication and propagation.Identification and phylogenetic analysis of HMO-2011-type DNAPsThe genetic diversity and geographically distribution of HMO-2011-type phages in marine environments was further inferred from DNAP gene analyses. A total of 2433 HMO-2011-type DNAP sequences with sequence sizes ranging from 540 to 779 amino acids were identified and subjected to phylogenetic analysis (Supplementary Table 3).Among the identified HMO-2011-type DNAPs, 2030 sequences were retrieved from the GOV 2.0 Tara expedition upper-ocean viral populations (0–1000 m), from tropical to polar regions. HMO-2011-type DNAP genes were identified from all analyzed upper-ocean viromes, suggesting the global prevalence of HMO-2011-type phages in upper oceans.A previous study revealed that marine viromes contain various types of tailed phage genomes that encode a family A DNAP gene [81]. To estimate the importance of HMO-2011-type phages, we calculated the proportion of HMO-2011-type DNAPs based on the number of HMO-2011-type DNAP sequences and the total number of family A DNAP sequences ( >470 aa) in each GOV 2.0 viral population dataset. This analysis revealed that HMO-2011-type DNAPs accounted for up to 19.7% of all family A DNAPs in each GOV 2.0 dataset (Supplementary Table 4). We found that the HMO-2011-type DNAP sequences appear to be more dominant in epipelagic viromes than in mesopelagic viromes (p  More

  • in

    Distinct gut microbiomes in two polar bear subpopulations inhabiting different sea ice ecoregions

    1.Ley, R. E. et al. Evolution of mammals and their gut microbes. Science 320, 1647–1651. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155725 (2008).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    2.Hale, V. L. et al. Diet versus phylogeny: a comparison of gut microbiota in captive colobine monkey species. Microb. Ecol. 75, 515–527. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00248-017-1041-8 (2018).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    3.Pickard, J. M., Zeng, M. Y., Caruso, R. & Núñez, G. Gut microbiota: role in pathogen colonization, immune responses, and inflammatory disease. Immunol. Rev. 279, 70–89 (2017).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    4.Ley, R. E., Peterson, D. A. & Gordon, J. I. Ecological and evolutionary forces shaping microbial diversity in the human intestine. Cell 124, 837–848 (2006).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    5.Pascoe, E. L., Hauffe, H. C., Marchesi, J. R. & Perkins, S. E. Network analysis of gut microbiota literature: an overview of the research landscape in non-human animal studies. ISME J. 11, 2644–2651. https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2017.133 (2017).Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    6.Hauffe, H. C. & Barelli, C. Conserve the germs: the gut microbiota and adaptive potential. Conserv. Genet. 20, 19–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-019-01150-y (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    7.Ellegaard, K. M. & Engel, P. Beyond 16S rRNA Community profiling: intra-species diversity in the gut microbiota. Front. Microbiol. 7, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2016.01475 (2016).8.Sugden, S., Sanderson, D., Ford, K., Stein, L. Y. & St. Clair, C. C. An altered microbiome in urban coyotes mediates relationships between anthropogenic diet and poor health. Sci. Rep. 10, 22207, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78891-1 (2020).9.Góngora, E., Elliott, K. H. & Whyte, L. Gut microbiome is affected by inter-sexual and inter-seasonal variation in diet for thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia). Sci. Rep. 11, 1200. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80557-x (2021).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    10.Muegge, B. D. et al. Diet drives convergence in gut microbiome functions across mammalian phylogeny and within humans. Science 332, 970. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1198719 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    11.Bik, E. M. et al. Marine mammals harbor unique microbiotas shaped by and yet distinct from the sea. Nature Commun 7, 10516 (2016).ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    12.McKenzie, V. J. et al. The effects of captivity on the mammalian gut microbiome. Integr. Comp. Biol. 57, 690–704 (2017).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    13.Des Roches, S. et al. The ecological importance of intraspecific variation. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 57–64, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0402-5 (2018).14.Des Roches, S., Pendleton, L. H., Shapiro, B. & Palkovacs, E. P. Conserving intraspecific variation for nature’s contributions to people. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 5, 574–582, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01403-5 (2021).15.Wasimuddin, et al. Gut microbiomes of free-ranging and captive Namibian cheetahs: diversity, putative functions and occurrence of potential pathogens. Mol. Ecol. 26, 5515–5527. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.14278 (2017).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    16.Alfano, N. et al. Variation in koala microbiomes within and between individuals: effect of body region and captivity status. Sci. Rep. 5, 10189. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep10189 (2015).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    17.Schwab, C., Cristescu, B., Northrup, J. M., Stenhouse, G. B. & Gänzle, M. Diet and environment shape fecal bacterial microbiota composition and enteric pathogen load of grizzly bears. Plos One 6, e27905 (2011).18.Sommer, F. et al. The gut microbiota modulates energy metabolism in the hibernating brown bear Ursus arctos. Cell Rep 14, 1655–1661 (2016).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    19.Durner, G., Laidre, K. & York, G. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 18th Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group, 7–11 June 2016, Anchorage, Alaska. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN. xxx+ 207pp (2018).20.Amstrup, S. C., Marcot, B. G. & Douglas, D. C. in Arctic sea ice decline: Observations, projections, mechanisms, and implications Geophysics monograph series (eds E.T. DeWeaver, C.M. Bitz, & L.-B. Tremblay) 213–268 (AGU, 2008).21.Thiemann, G. W., Iverson, S. J. & Stirling, I. Polar bear diets and arctic marine food webs: Insights from fatty acid analysis. Ecol. Monogr 78, 591–613 (2008).
    Google Scholar 
    22.McKinney, M. A. et al. Regional contamination versus regional dietary differences: Understanding geographic variation in brominated and chlorinated contaminant levels in polar bears. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 896–902 (2011).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    23.Laidre, K. L. et al. Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century. Conserv. Biol. 29, 724–737 (2015).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    24.Stern, H. L. & Laidre, K. L. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat. Cryosphere 10, 2027–2041. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2027-2016 (2016).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    25.Atwood, T. C. et al. Rapid environmental change drives increased land use by an Arctic marine predator. PLoS ONE 11, e0155932 (2016).26.Rode, K. D., Robbins, C. T., Nelson, L. & Amstrup, S. C. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?. Front. Ecol. Environ. 13, 138–145 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    27.Herreman, J. K. & Peacock, E. Polar bear use of a persistent food subsidy: insights from non-invasive genetic sampling in Alaska. Ursus 24, 148–163 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    28.Glad, T. et al. Bacterial diversity in faeces from polar bear (Ursus maritimus) in Arctic Svalbard. BMC Microbiol. 10, doi:https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2180-10-10 (2010).29.Watson, S. E. et al. Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota. ISME J. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41396-019-0480-2 (2019).Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    30.McKinney, M. A. et al. Global change effects on the long-term feeding ecology and contaminant exposures of East Greenland polar bears. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 2360–2372. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12241 (2013).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    31.Ilinskaya, O. N., Ulyanova, V. V., Yarullina, D. R. & Gataullin, I. G. Secretome of Intestinal Bacilli: A Natural Guard against Pathologies. Front. Microbiol. 8, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2017.01666 (2017).32.Cho, G.-S. et al. Quantification of Slackia and Eggerthella spp. in Human Feces and Adhesion of Representatives Strains to Caco-2 Cells. Front. Microbiol. 7, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2016.00658 (2016).33.Astbury, S. et al. Lower gut microbiome diversity and higher abundance of proinflammatory genus Collinsella are associated with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Gut Microbes 11, 569–580. https://doi.org/10.1080/19490976.2019.1681861 (2020).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    34.Gomez-Arango, L. F. et al. Low dietary fiber intake increases Collinsella abundance in the gut microbiota of overweight and obese pregnant women. Gut Microbes 9, 189–201 (2018).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    35.Jeong, Y. et al. Gut microbial composition and function are altered in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. J. Clin. Med. 8, 693 (2019).CAS 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    36.Liu, X. et al. Blautia-a new functional genus with potential probiotic properties?. Gut microbes 13, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/19490976.2021.1875796 (2021).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    37.Claus, S. P. et al. Colonization-induced host-gut microbial metabolic interaction. MBio 2, e00271-e210 (2011).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    38.Martínez, I. et al. Diet-induced metabolic improvements in a hamster model of hypercholesterolemia are strongly linked to alterations of the gut microbiota. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 75, 4175–4184 (2009).ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    39.Sergeant, M. J. et al. Extensive microbial and functional diversity within the chicken cecal microbiome. PLoS One 9, e91941 (2014).40.Zhang, X. et al. Human gut microbiota changes reveal the progression of glucose intolerance. PLoS One 8, e71108 (2013).41.Shetty, S. A., Marathe, N. P., Lanjekar, V., Ranade, D. & Shouche, Y. S. Comparative genome analysis of Megasphaera sp. reveals niche specialization and its potential role in the human gut. PLoS One 8, e79353 (2013).42.Jiang, X.-L., Su, Y. & Zhu, W.-Y. Fermentation characteristics of Megasphaera elsdenii J6 derived from pig feces on different lactate isomers. J. Integr. Agric. 15, 1575–1583. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(15)61236-9 (2016).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    43.Hobson, K. A. & Stirling, I. Low variation in blood delta C-13 among Hudson Bay polar bears: implications for metabolism and tracing terrestrial foraging. Mar. Mammal Sci 13, 359–367 (1997).
    Google Scholar 
    44.Hobson, K. A., Stirling, I. & Andriashek, D. S. Isotopic homogeneity of breath CO2 from fasting and berry-eating polar bears: implications for tracing reliance on terrestrial foods in a changing Arctic. Can. J. Zool 87, 50–55 (2009).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    45.Sakamoto, M. & Ohkuma, M. Reclassification of Xylanibacter oryzae Ueki et al. 2006 as Prevotella oryzae comb. nov., with an emended description of the genus Prevotella. Int. J. Syst. Evol. Microbiol. 62, 2637–2642 (2012).46.Ley, R. E. Obesity and the human microbiome. Curr. Opin. Gastroenterol. 26, 5–11 (2010).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    47.Rajilić-Stojanović, M. et al. Global and deep molecular analysis of microbiota signatures in fecal samples from patients with irritable bowel syndrome. Gastroenterology 141, 1792–1801 (2011).PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    48.Larsen, N. et al. Gut microbiota in human adults with type 2 diabetes differs from non-diabetic adults. PLoS One 5, e9085 (2010).49.Le Chatelier, E. et al. Richness of human gut microbiome correlates with metabolic markers. Nature 500, 541–546 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    50.Rajilić-Stojanović, M. & de Vos, W. M. The first 1000 cultured species of the human gastrointestinal microbiota. FEMS Microbiol. Rev. 38, 996–1047. https://doi.org/10.1111/1574-6976.12075 (2014).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    51.do Nascimento Silva, A., de Avila, E. D., Nakano, V. & Avila-Campos, M. J. Pathogenicity and genetic profile of oral Porphyromonas species from canine periodontitis. Arch. Oral Biol. 83, 20–24 (2017).52.Acuña-Amador, L. & Barloy-Hubler, F. Porphyromonas spp. have an extensive host range in ill and healthy individuals and an unexpected environmental distribution: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Anaerobe 66, 102280, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anaerobe.2020.102280 (2020).53.Solé, C. et al. Alterations in gut microbiome in cirrhosis as assessed by quantitative metagenomics: relationship with acute-on-chronic liver failure and prognosis. Gastroenterology 160, 206–218. e213 (2021).54.Osman, M. A. et al. Parvimonas micra, Peptostreptococcus stomatis, Fusobacterium nucleatum and Akkermansia muciniphila as a four-bacteria biomarker panel of colorectal cancer. Sci. Rep. 11, 2925. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82465-0 (2021).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    55.Murphy, E. C. & Frick, I.-M. Gram-positive anaerobic cocci – commensals and opportunistic pathogens. FEMS Microbiol. Rev. 37, 520–553. https://doi.org/10.1111/1574-6976.12005 (2013).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    56.Vitali, B., Abruzzo, A. & Mastromarino, P. in The Microbiota in Gastrointestinal Pathophysiology (eds Martin H. Floch, Yehuda Ringel, & W. Allan Walker) 399–407 (Academic Press, 2017).57.Costello, E. K., Stagaman, K., Dethlefsen, L., Bohannan, B. J. & Relman, D. A. The application of ecological theory toward an understanding of the human microbiome. Science 336, 1255–1262 (2012).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    58.Kapourchali, F. R. & Cresci, G. A. M. Early-life gut microbiome—the importance of maternal and infant factors in its establishment. Nutr. Clin. Pract. 35, 386–405. https://doi.org/10.1002/ncp.10490 (2020).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    59.Guo, G. et al. The Gut Microbial Community Structure of the North American River Otter (Lontra canadensis) in the Alberta Oil Sands Region in Canada: relationship with local environmental variables and metal body burden. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4876 (2020).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    60.Haworth, S. E., White, K. S., Côté, S. D. & Shafer, A. B. A. Space, time and captivity: quantifying the factors influencing the fecal microbiome of an alpine ungulate. FEMS microbiology ecology 95, doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/femsec/fiz095 (2019).61.McKinney, M. A., Atwood, T. C., Iverson, S. J. & Peacock, E. Temporal complexity of southern Beaufort Sea polar bear diets during a period of increasing land use. Ecosphere 8, e01633. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1633 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    62.Atwood, T. C. et al. Rapid environmental change drives increased land use by an arctic marine predator. PLoS ONE 11, e0155932–e0155932. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155932 (2016).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    63.Laidre, K. L., Stirling, I., Estes, J. A., Kochnev, A. & Roberts, J. Historical and potential future importance of large whales as food for polar bears. Front. Ecol. Environ. 16, 515–524. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1963 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    64.Bromaghin, J. F. et al. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline. Ecol. Appl. 25, 634–651. https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1129.1 (2015).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    65.Atwood, T. C. et al. Environmental and behavioral changes may influence the exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants. Sci. Rep. 7, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13496-9 (2017).66.Bowen, W. D. & Iverson, S. J. Methods of estimating marine mammal diets: a review of validation experiments and sources of bias and uncertainty. Mar. Mamm. Sci. 29, 719–754. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2012.00604.x (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    67.Sonsthagen, S. A. et al. DNA metabarcoding of feces to infer summer diet of Pacific walruses. Mar. Mamm. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12717 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    68.Michaux, J., Dyck, M., Boag, P., Lougheed, S. & Van Coeverden de Groot, P. New insights on polar bear (Ursus maritimus) diet from faeces based on next-generation sequencing technologies. ARCTIC 74, 87–99, doi:https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic72239 (2021).69.Bourque, J., Atwood, T. C., Divoky, G. J., Stewart, C. & McKinney, M. A. Fatty acid-based diet estimates suggest ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears despite recent use of onshore food resources. Ecol. Evol. 10, 2093–2103. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6043 (2020).Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    70.Dominianni, C. et al. Sex, Body Mass Index, and Dietary Fiber Intake Influence the Human Gut Microbiome. PLoS One 10, doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124599 (2015).71.Bennett, G. et al. Host age, social group, and habitat type influence the gut microbiota of wild ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta). Am. J. Primatol. 78, 883–892. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.22555 (2016).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    72.Peng, C. et al. Sex-specific association between the gut microbiome and high-fat diet-induced metabolic disorders in mice. Biol. Sex Differ. 11, 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13293-020-0281-3 (2020).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    73.Markle, J. G. et al. Sex differences in the gut microbiome drive hormone-dependent regulation of autoimmunity. Science 339, 1084–1088 (2013).ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    74.Kaliannan, K. et al. Estrogen-mediated gut microbiome alterations influence sexual dimorphism in metabolic syndrome in mice. Microbiome 6, 205. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40168-018-0587-0 (2018).Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    75.Park, M. J. et al. Reproductive senescence and ischemic stroke remodel the gut microbiome and modulate the effects of estrogen treatment in female rats. Transl. Stroke Res., 1–19 (2019).76.Thiemann, G. W., Budge, S. M., Iverson, S. J. & Stirling, I. Unusual fatty acid biomarkers reveal age- and sex-specific foraging in polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Can. J. Zool. 85, 505–517. https://doi.org/10.1139/Z07-028 (2007).CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    77.Stirling, I. & Derocher, A. E. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 2694–2706. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02753.x (2012).ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    78.Miller, S., Wilder, J. & Wilson, R. R. Polar bear–grizzly bear interactions during the autumn open-water period in Alaska. J. Mammal. 96, 1317–1325 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    79.Mshelia, E. S. et al. The association between gut microbiome, sex, age and body condition scores of horses in Maiduguri and its environs. Microb. Pathog. 118, 81–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.micpath.2018.03.018 (2018).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    80.Falony, G. et al. Population-level analysis of gut microbiome variation. Science 352, 560. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad3503 (2016).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar 
    81.Walters, W. A., Xu, Z. & Knight, R. Meta-analyses of human gut microbes associated with obesity and IBD. FEBS Lett. 588, 4223–4233 (2014).CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    82.Feng, P. et al. A review on gut remediation of selected environmental contaminants: possible roles of probiotics and gut microbiota. Nutrients 11, 22 (2019).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    83.Vasemägi, A., Visse, M. & Kisand, V. Effect of environmental factors and an emerging parasitic disease on gut microbiome of wild salmonid fish. MSphere 2 (2017).84.Kreisinger, J., Bastien, G. r., Hauffe, H. C., Marchesi, J. & Perkins, S. E. Interactions between multiple helminths and the gut microbiota in wild rodents. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 370, doi:https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0295 (2015).85.Faust, K. & Raes, J. Microbial interactions: from networks to models. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 10, 538–550 (2012).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    86.Baldo, L. et al. Convergence of gut microbiotas in the adaptive radiations of African cichlid fishes. ISME J. 11, 1975–1987 (2017).PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    87.Yan, D. et al. Effects of Chronic Stress on the Fecal Microbiome of Malayan Pangolins (Manis javanica) Rescued from the Illegal Wildlife Trade. Curr. Microbiol. 78, 1017–1025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00284-021-02357-4 (2021).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    88.Schirmer, M. et al. Linking the human gut microbiome to inflammatory cytokine production capacity. Cell 167, 1125-1136.e1128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2016.10.020 (2016).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    89.Mallott, E. K., Borries, C., Koenig, A., Amato, K. R. & Lu, A. Reproductive hormones mediate changes in the gut microbiome during pregnancy and lactation in Phayre’s leaf monkeys. Sci. Rep. 10, 9961. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66865-2 (2020).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    90.Burokas, A., Moloney, R. D., Dinan, T. G. & Cryan, J. F. Microbiota regulation of the mammalian gut–brain axis. Adv. Appl. Microbiol. 91, 1–62 (2015).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    91.Bercik, P. et al. Chronic gastrointestinal inflammation induces anxiety-like behavior and alters central nervous system biochemistry in mice. Gastroenterology 139, 2102–2112 (2010).92.Walter, J. M., Bagi, A. & Pampanin, D. M. Insights into the potential of the Atlantic cod gut microbiome as biomarker of oil contamination in the marine environment. Microorganisms 7, 209 (2019).CAS 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    93.Xia, J. et al. Effects of short term lead exposure on gut microbiota and hepatic metabolism in adult zebrafish. Comput. Biochem. Physiol. C: Toxicol. Pharmacol. 209, 1–8 (2018).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    94.Breton, J. et al. Ecotoxicology inside the gut: impact of heavy metals on the mouse microbiome. BMC Pharmacol. Toxicol. 14, 1–11 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    95.Schliebe, S. et al. Effects of sea ice extent and food availability on spatial and temporal distribution of polar bears during the fall open-water period in the Southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biol. 31, 999–1010 (2008).
    Google Scholar 
    96.Bahrndorff, S., Alemu, T., Alemneh, T. & Lund Nielsen, J. The microbiome of animals: implications for conservation biology. Int J Genomics 2016, 5304028–5304028, doi:https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/5304028 (2016).97.McKenney, E., Koelle, K., Dunn, R. & Yoder, A. The ecosystem services of animal microbiomes. Mol. Ecol. 27, 2164–2172 (2018).CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    98.Calvert, W. & Ramsay, M. A. Evaluation of age determination of polar bears by counts of cementum growth layer groups. Ursus 10, 449–453 (1998).
    Google Scholar 
    99.Iverson, S. J., Field, C., Bowen, W. D. & Blanchard, W. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis: a new method of estimating predator diets. Ecol. Monogr 74, 211–235 (2004).
    Google Scholar 
    100.Galicia, M. P., Thiemann, G. W., Dyck, M. G. & Ferguson, S. H. Characterization of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) diets in the Canadian High Arctic. Polar Biol. 38, 1983–1992 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    101.Bourque, J. et al. Feeding habits of a new Arctic predator: Insight from full-depth blubber fatty acid signatures of Greenland, Faroe Islands, Denmark, and managed-care killer whales Orcinus orca. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 603, 1–12 (2018).ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    102.Budge, S. M., Iverson, S. J. & Koopman, H. N. Studying trophic ecology in marine ecosystems using fatty acids: a primer on analysis and interpretation. Mar. Mamm. Sci. 22, 759–801 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    103.Aitchison, J. The statistical analysis of compositional data. J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Methodol.) 44, 139–160 (1982).MathSciNet 
    MATH 

    Google Scholar 
    104.R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2019).105.Callahan, B. J. et al. DADA2: High-resolution sample inference from Illumina amplicon data. Nat. Methods 13, 581–583. https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.3869 (2016).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    106.Davis, N. M., Proctor, D. M., Holmes, S. P., Relman, D. A. & Callahan, B. J. Simple statistical identification and removal of contaminant sequences in marker-gene and metagenomics data. Microbiome 6, 1–14 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    107.Chong, J., Liu, P., Zhou, G. & Xia, J. Using MicrobiomeAnalyst for comprehensive statistical, functional, and meta-analysis of microbiome data. Nat. Protoc. 15, 799–821. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41596-019-0264-1 (2020).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    108.McMurdie, P., Holmes, S., Kindt, R., Legendre, P. & O’Hara, R. P. an R package for reproducible interactive analysis and graphics of microbiome census data. Watson M, editor. PLoS One [Internet]. Public Library of Science (2013).109.McMurdie, P. J. & Holmes, S. Waste Not, Want Not: Why Rarefying Microbiome Data Is Inadmissible. PLoS Comput. Biol. 10, e1003531. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003531 (2014).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    110.Oksanen, J. et al. The vegan package. Commun. Ecol. Package 10, 719 (2007).
    Google Scholar 
    111.Anderson, M. J. Distance-based tests for homogeneity of multivariate dispersions. Biometrics 62, 245–253 (2006).MathSciNet 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    MATH 

    Google Scholar 
    112.Lin, H. & Peddada, S. D. Analysis of compositions of microbiomes with bias correction. Nat. Commun. 11, 3514. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17041-7 (2020).ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    113.Rode, K. D. et al. Identifying reliable indicators of fitness in polar bears. PLoS ONE 15, e0237444. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237444 (2020).CAS 
    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    114.Burnham, K. P., Anderson, D. R. & Huyvaert, K. P. AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background, observations, and comparisons. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 65, 23–35 (2011).
    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Tundra vegetation change and impacts on permafrost

    1.Meredith, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 3 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019).2.Blok, D. et al. Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw in Siberian tundra. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1296–1305 (2010). A field study in which dwarf-shrub canopies were removed experimentally, resulting in increased thaw depths, thereby, underscoring the protective role of vegetation cover on permafrost.
    Google Scholar 
    3.van Huissteden, J. Thawing Permafrost: Permafrost Carbon in a Warming Arctic (Springer, 2020).4.Jorgenson, M. et al. Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change. Can. J. For. Res. 40, 1219–1236 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    5.Kropp, H. et al. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 015001 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    6.Myers-Smith, I. H. & Hik, D. S. Shrub canopies influence soil temperatures but not nutrient dynamics: an experimental test of tundra snow–shrub interactions. Ecol. Evol. 3, 3683–3700 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    7.Sturm, M. et al. Snow–shrub interactions in Arctic tundra: a hypothesis with climatic implications. J. Clim. 14, 336–344 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    8.Sturm, M. et al. Winter biological processes could help convert arctic tundra to shrubland. BioScience 55, 17–26 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    9.Chapin, F. S. et al. Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming. Science 310, 657–660 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    10.Loranty, M. M. et al. Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions. Biogeosciences 15, 5287–5313 (2018). Review article showing how Arctic ecosystem processes can influence soil thermal dynamics in permafrost soil.
    Google Scholar 
    11.Shur, Y. L. & Jorgenson, M. T. Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 18, 7–19 (2007).
    Google Scholar 
    12.Chadburn, S. E. et al. An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 340–344 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    13.Smith, S. L., O’Neill, H. B., Isaksen, K., Noetzli, J. & Romanovsky, V. E. The changing thermal state of permafrost. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ. 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00240-1 (2022).14.Ksenofontov, S., Backhaus, N. & Schaepman-Strub, G. ‘There are new species’: indigenous knowledge of biodiversity change in Arctic Yakutia. Polar Geogr. 42, 34–57 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    15.Schuur, E. A. et al. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience 58, 701–714 (2008).
    Google Scholar 
    16.Kokelj, S. V. & Jorgenson, M. Advances in thermokarst research. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 24, 108–119 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    17.Keuper, F. et al. A frozen feast: thawing permafrost increases plant-available nitrogen in subarctic peatlands. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 1998–2007 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    18.Salmon, V. G. et al. Nitrogen availability increases in a tundra ecosystem during five years of experimental permafrost thaw. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 1927–1941 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    19.Blume-Werry, G., Milbau, A., Teuber, L. M., Johansson, M. & Dorrepaal, E. Dwelling in the deep–strongly increased root growth and rooting depth enhance plant interactions with thawing permafrost soil. New Phytol. 223, 1328–1339 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    20.Wang, P. et al. Above- and below-ground responses of four tundra plant functional types to deep soil heating and surface soil fertilization. J. Ecol. 105, 947–957 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    21.Nauta, A. L. et al. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 67–70 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    22.Osterkamp, T. et al. Physical and ecological changes associated with warming permafrost and thermokarst in interior Alaska. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 20, 235–256 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    23.Schuur, E. A. et al. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature 520, 171–179 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    24.Koven, C. D. et al. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 14769–14774 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    25.Abbott, B. W. & Jones, J. B. Permafrost collapse alters soil carbon stocks, respiration, CH4, and N2O in upland tundra. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 4570–4587 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    26.Voigt, C. et al. Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 3121–3138 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    27.Lenton, T. M. et al. Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    28.Miner, K. R. Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    29.Peterson, K. & Billings, W. Tundra vegetational patterns and succession in relation to microtopography near Atkasook, Alaska. Arct. Alp. Res. 12, 473–482 (1980).
    Google Scholar 
    30.Bliss, L. in North American Terrestrial Vegetation (eds Barbour, M. G. & Billings W. D.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1988).31.Walker, D. A. et al. The circumpolar Arctic vegetation map. J. Veg. Sci. 16, 267–282 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    32.Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E. & Walker, D. A. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 025004 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    33.Walker, D. A. et al. Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015504 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    34.Raynolds, M. K. et al. A raster version of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM). Remote Sens. Environ. 232, 111297 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    35.Chernov, Y. I. & Matveyeva, N. in Polar Alpine Tundra (ed. Wielgolaski, F. E.) 361–507 (Elsevier, 1997).36.Elvebakk, A. in The Species Concept in the High North: A Panarctic Flora Initiative (eds Nordal, I. & Razzhivin, V. Y.) 81–112 (The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 1999).37.Yurtsev, B. A. Floristic division of the Arctic. J. Veg. Sci. 5, 765–776 (1994).
    Google Scholar 
    38.Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 453–457 (2012). A meta-analysis of field-observed vegetation changes from 46 polar sites indicating widespread increases of shrub vegetation and increased plant size.
    Google Scholar 
    39.Iversen, C. M. et al. The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra. New Phytol. 205, 34–58 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    40.Hobbie, J. E. & Hobbie, E. A. 15N in symbiotic fungi and plants estimates nitrogen and carbon flux rates in Arctic tundra. Ecology 87, 816–822 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    41.Nielsen, U. N. & Wall, D. H. The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic? Ecol. Lett. 16, 409–419 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    42.Clemmensen, K. E. et al. A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen. Ecol. Lett. 24, 1193–1204 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    43.Minke, M., Donner, N., Karpov, N., de Klerk, P. & Joosten, H. Patterns in vegetation composition, surface height and thaw depth in polygon mires in the Yakutian Arctic (NE Siberia): a microtopographical characterisation of the active layer. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 20, 357–368 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    44.Liljedahl, A. K. et al. Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology. Nat. Geosci. 9, 312–318 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    45.Grunberg, I., Wilcox, E. J., Zwieback, S., Marsh, P. & Boike, J. Linking tundra vegetation, snow, soil temperature, and permafrost. Biogeosciences 17, 4261–4279 (2020). A field study reporting that large variations in soil temperatures and thaw depths can be explained by vegetation-mediated differences in snow height.
    Google Scholar 
    46.Magnússon, R. I. et al. Rapid vegetation succession and coupled permafrost dynamics in Arctic thaw ponds in the Siberian lowland tundra. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 125, e2019JG005618 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    47.Jorgenson, M. et al. Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 120, 2280–2297 (2015). Outlines the role of ground ice and vegetation succession in thermokarst terrain, including first estimates of recovery times.
    Google Scholar 
    48.Bjorkman, A. D. et al. Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring. Ambio 49, 678–692 (2020). A meta-analysis of plant species responses to experimental climate warming across Arctic sites, finding that shrubs and graminoids generally responded positively to warming, whereas lichens and bryophytes responded more negatively.
    Google Scholar 
    49.Frost, G. V. et al. Arctic Report Card 2020: Tundra Greenness. https://doi.org/10.25923/46rm-0w23 (NOAA, 2020). Provides an annual update of Arctic NDVI, offering a long-standing record of Arctic greening and browning.50.Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 106–117 (2020). Review article outlining complexity in Arctic greening and browning dynamics. The temporal and spatial scale of spectral data and the role of non-vegetation-related processes and ground-truthing remains essential.
    Google Scholar 
    51.Berner, L. T. et al. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome. Nat. Commun. 11, 4621 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    52.Sistla, S. A. et al. Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage. Nature 497, 615–618 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    53.Bhatt, U. S. et al. Circumpolar Arctic Tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Interact. 14, 1–20 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    54.Oechel, W. C. & Billings, W. in Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: an Ecophysiological Perspective (eds Chapin, F. S. III et al.) 139–168 (Academic Press, 1992).55.Shaver, G. R. et al. Species composition interacts with fertilizer to control long-term change in tundra productivity. Ecology 82, 3163–3181 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    56.Bret-Harte, M. S., Shaver, G. R. & Chapin, F. S. III Primary and secondary stem growth in arctic shrubs: implications for community response to environmental change. J. Ecol. 90, 251–267 (2002).
    Google Scholar 
    57.Mack, M. C., Schuur, E. A. G., Bret-Harte, M. S., Shaver, G. R. & Chapin, F. S. Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization. Nature 431, 440–443 (2004).
    Google Scholar 
    58.Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 887–891 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    59.McGuire, A. D. et al. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecol. Monogr. 79, 523–555 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    60.van der Kolk, H.-J., Heijmans, M. M., van Huissteden, J., Pullens, J. W. & Berendse, F. Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw. Biogeosciences 13, 6229–6245 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    61.Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Eighteen years of ecological monitoring reveals multiple lines of evidence for tundra vegetation change. Ecol. Monogr. 89, e01351 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    62.Leffler, A. J., Klein, E. S., Oberbauer, S. F. & Welker, J. M. Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra. Oecologia 181, 287–297 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    63.Euskirchen, E. et al. Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 731–750 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    64.McGuire, A. D. et al. Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 3882–3887 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    65.National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Understanding Northern Latitude Vegetation Greening and Browning: Proceedings of a Workshop (The National Academies Press, 2019).66.Phoenix, G. K. & Bjerke, J. W. Arctic browning: extreme events and trends reversing arctic greening. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 2960–2962 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    67.Bokhorst, S. et al. Impacts of extreme winter warming in the sub-Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 2603–2612 (2008).
    Google Scholar 
    68.Bret-Harte, M. S. et al. The response of Arctic vegetation and soils following an unusually severe tundra fire. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 368, 20120490 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    69.Farquharson, L. M. et al. Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 6681–6689 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    70.Turetsky et al. Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release. Nature 569, 32–34 (2019). Reveals that abrupt thaw of permafrost could double the estimated future release of greenhouse gases from permafrost soils compared with scenarios of gradual thaw.
    Google Scholar 
    71.Bokhorst, S. F., Bjerke, J. W., Tømmervik, H., Callaghan, T. V. & Phoenix, G. K. Winter warming events damage sub-Arctic vegetation: consistent evidence from an experimental manipulation and a natural event. J. Ecol. 97, 1408–1415 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    72.Bjerke, J. W. et al. Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 084006 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    73.Treharne, R., Bjerke, J. W., Tømmervik, H., Stendardi, L. & Phoenix, G. K. Arctic browning: impacts of extreme climatic events on heathland ecosystem CO2 fluxes. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 489–503 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    74.Olofsson, J., Tommervik, H. & Callaghan, T. V. Vole and lemming activity observed from space. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 880–883 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    75.Lara, M. J., Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Martin, P. & McGuire, A. D. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions. Sci. Rep. 8, 2345 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    76.Verdonen, M., Berner, L. T., Forbes, B. C. & Kumpula, T. Periglacial vegetation dynamics in Arctic Russia: decadal analysis of tundra regeneration on landslides with time series satellite imagery. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 105020 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    77.Assmann, J. J., Myers-Smith, I. H., Kerby, J. T., Cunliffe, A. M. & Daskalova, G. N. Drone data reveal heterogeneity in tundra greenness and phenology not captured by satellites. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 125002 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    78.Raynolds, M. K. & Walker, D. A. Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985–2011. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 085004 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    79.Magnússon, R. Í. et al. Shrub decline and expansion of wetland vegetation revealed by very high resolution land cover change detection in the Siberian lowland tundra. Sci. Total Environ. 782, 146877 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    80.Nitze, I. & Grosse, G. Detection of landscape dynamics in the Arctic Lena Delta with temporally dense Landsat time-series stacks. Remote Sens. Environ. 181, 27–41 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    81.Chen, Y., Hu, F. S. & Lara, M. J. Divergent shrub-cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 652–663 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    82.Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195–213 (2002).
    Google Scholar 
    83.Siewert, M. B. & Olofsson, J. Scale-dependency of Arctic ecosystem properties revealed by UAV. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094030 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    84.Beamish, A. et al. Recent trends and remaining challenges for optical remote sensing of Arctic tundra vegetation: a review and outlook. Remote Sens. Environ. 246, 111872 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    85.Blok, D. et al. The response of Arctic vegetation to the summer climate: relation between shrub cover, NDVI, surface albedo and temperature. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 035502 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    86.Boelman, N. T., Gough, L., McLaren, J. R. & Greaves, H. Does NDVI reflect variation in the structural attributes associated with increasing shrub dominance in arctic tundra? Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 035501 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    87.Sturm, M., Racine, C. & Tape, K. Climate change – increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411, 546–547 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    88.Tape, K., Sturm, M. & Racine, C. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 686–702 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    89.Jorgenson, J. C., Raynolds, M. K., Reynolds, J. H. & Benson, A. M. Twenty-five year record of changes in plant cover on tundra of northeastern Alaska. Arct. Antarctic Alp. Res. 47, 785–806 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    90.Jorgenson, J. C., Jorgenson, M. T., Boldenow, M. L. & Orndahl, K. M. Landscape change detected over a half century in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge using high-resolution aerial imagery. Remote Sens. 10, 1305 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    91.Hobbie, J. E. et al. Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site. Ambio 46, 160–173 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    92.Virkkala, A.-M., Abdi, A. M., Luoto, M. & Metcalfe, D. B. Identifying multidisciplinary research gaps across Arctic terrestrial gradients. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 124061 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    93.Ropars, P. & Boudreau, S. Shrub expansion at the forest-tundra ecotone: spatial heterogeneity linked to local topography. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015501 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    94.Ropars, P., Levesque, E. & Boudreau, S. How do climate and topography influence the greening of the forest-tundra ecotone in northern Québec? A dendrochronological analysis of Betula glandulosa. J. Ecol. 103, 679–690 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    95.Tremblay, B., Levesque, E. & Boudreau, S. Recent expansion of erect shrubs in the Low Arctic: evidence from Eastern Nunavik. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 035501 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    96.Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Levesque, E., Boudreau, S., Henry, G. H. R. & Schmidt, N. M. Population structure and dynamics of Arctic willow (Salix arctica) in the High Arctic. J. Biogeogr. 41, 1967–1978 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    97.Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E., Walker, D. A., Matyshak, G. & Ermokhina, K. Patterned-ground facilitates shrub expansion in Low Arctic tundra. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 015035 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    98.Lantz, T. C., Kokelj, S. V., Gergel, S. E. & Henry, G. H. Relative impacts of disturbance and temperature: persistent changes in microenvironment and vegetation in retrogressive thaw slumps. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 1664–1675 (2009).
    Google Scholar 
    99.Huebner, D. C. & Bret-Harte, M. S. Microsite conditions in retrogressive thaw slumps may facilitate increased seedling recruitment in the Alaskan Low Arctic. Ecol. Evol. 9, 1880–1897 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    100.Lantz, T. C., Marsh, P. & Kokelj, S. V. Recent shrub proliferation in the Mackenzie Delta uplands and microclimatic implications. Ecosystems 16, 47–59 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    101.Hu, F. S. et al. Arctic tundra fires: natural variability and responses to climate change. Front. Ecol. Environ. 13, 369–377 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    102.Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    103.Didan, K. MYD13Q1 MODIS/Aqua vegetation indices 16-day L3 global 250 m SIN grid V006. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD13Q1.006 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    104.Didan, K. MOD13Q1 MODIS/Terra vegetation indices 16-day L3 global 250 m SIN grid V006. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13Q1.006 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    105.Dorigo, W. et al. ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. Remote Sens. Environ. 203, 185–215 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    106.Brown, J., Ferrians, O. Jr, Heginbottom, J. A. & Melnikov, E. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-ice Conditions (US Geological Survey, 1997).107.Jones, G. A. & Henry, G. H. Primary plant succession on recently deglaciated terrain in the Canadian High Arctic. J. Biogeogr. 30, 277–296 (2003).
    Google Scholar 
    108.Cornelissen, J. H. C. et al. Global change and arctic ecosystems: is lichen decline a function of increases in vascular plant biomass? J. Ecol. 89, 984–994 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    109.Aguirre, D., Benhumea, A. E. & McLaren, J. R. Shrub encroachment affects tundra ecosystem properties through their living canopy rather than increased litter inputs. Soil Biol. Biochem. 153, 108121 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    110.Gornall, J. L., Jonsdottir, I. S., Woodin, S. J. & Van der Wal, R. Arctic mosses govern below-ground environment and ecosystem processes. Oecologia 153, 931–941 (2007).
    Google Scholar 
    111.Soudzilovskaia, N. A., Bodegom, P. M. & Cornelissen, J. H. Dominant bryophyte control over high-latitude soil temperature fluctuations predicted by heat transfer traits, field moisture regime and laws of thermal insulation. Funct. Ecol. 27, 1442–1454 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    112.Blok, D. et al. The cooling capacity of mosses: controls on water and energy fluxes in a Siberian tundra site. Ecosystems 14, 1055–1065 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    113.Belke-Brea, M., Domine, F., Barrere, M., Picard, G. & Arnaud, L. Impact of shrubs on winter surface albedo and snow specific surface area at a low Arctic site: In situ measurements and simulations. J. Clim. 33, 597–609 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    114.Wilcox, E. J. et al. Tundra shrub expansion may amplify permafrost thaw by advancing snowmelt timing. Arct. Sci. 5, 202–217 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    115.Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E., Walker, D. A., Matyshak, G. & Ermokhina, K. Seasonal and long-term changes to active-layer temperatures after tall shrubland expansion and succession in Arctic tundra. Ecosystems 21, 507–520 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    116.Wilson, M. A., Burn, C. & Humphreys, E. in Cold Regions Engineering 2019 (eds Bilodeau, J.-P., Nadeau, D. F., Fortier, D. & Conciatori, D.) 687–695 (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2019).117.Liljedahl, A. K., Timling, I., Frost, G. V. & Daanen, R. P. Arctic riparian shrub expansion indicates a shift from streams gaining water to those that lose flow. Commun. Earth Environ. 1, 50 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    118.Paradis, M., Lévesque, E. & Boudreau, S. Greater effect of increasing shrub height on winter versus summer soil temperature. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 085005 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    119.Beringer, J., Chapin, F. S., Thompson, C. C. & McGuire, A. D. Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate. Agric. For. Meteorol. 131, 143–161 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    120.Kemppinen, J. et al. Dwarf shrubs impact tundra soils: drier, colder, and less organic carbon. Ecosystems 24, 1378–1392 (2021). Quantifies the effects of shrub abundance on the soil thermal regime using a distinction between a rough, tall-shrub canopy and an aerodynamic, dwarf-shrub canopy.
    Google Scholar 
    121.Jorgenson, M. T., Ely, C. & Terenzi, J. in Shared Science Needs: Report from the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative Science Workshop (eds Reynolds, J. H. & Wiggins, H. V.) 130–137 (2012).122.Sturm, M., Douglas, T., Racine, C. & Liston, G. E. Changing snow and shrub conditions affect albedo with global implications. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 110, G01004 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    123.Zhang, T. Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview. Rev. Geophys. 43, RG4002 (2005).
    Google Scholar 
    124.Domine, F., Barrere, M. & Morin, S. The growth of shrubs on high Arctic tundra at Bylot Island: impact on snow physical properties and permafrost thermal regime. Biogeosciences 13, 6471–6486 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    125.Lawrence, D. M. & Swenson, S. C. Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045504 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    126.Barrere, M., Domine, F., Belke-Brea, M. & Sarrazin, D. Snowmelt events in autumn can reduce or cancel the soil warming effect of snow–vegetation interactions in the Arctic. J. Clim. 31, 9507–9518 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    127.Loranty, M. M., Goetz, S. J. & Beck, P. S. Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 024014 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    128.Bonfils, C. et al. On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015503 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    129.Williamson, S. N., Barrio, I. C., Hik, D. S. & Gamon, J. A. Phenology and species determine growing-season albedo increase at the altitudinal limit of shrub growth in the sub-Arctic. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3621–3631 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    130.Juszak, I., Eugster, W., Heijmans, M. & Schaepman-Strub, G. Contrasting radiation and soil heat fluxes in Arctic shrub and wet sedge tundra. Biogeosciences 13, 4049–4064 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    131.Göckede, M. et al. Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 3254–3266 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    132.Bonan, G. Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).133.Eugster, W. et al. Land–atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate. Glob. Change Biol. 6, 84–115 (2000).
    Google Scholar 
    134.Liljedahl, A. et al. Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in arctic coastal wetlands. Biogeosciences 8, 3375–3389 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    135.Zwieback, S., Chang, Q., Marsh, P. & Berg, A. Shrub tundra ecohydrology: rainfall interception is a major component of the water balance. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 055005 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    136.Subin, Z. M. et al. Effects of soil moisture on the responses of soil temperatures to climate change in cold regions. J. Clim. 26, 3139–3158 (2013).
    Google Scholar 
    137.Aalto, J., Scherrer, D., Lenoir, J., Guisan, A. & Luoto, M. Biogeophysical controls on soil-atmosphere thermal differences: implications on warming Arctic ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 074003 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    138.Asmus, A. L. et al. Shrub shading moderates the effects of weather on arthropod activity in arctic tundra. Ecol. Entomol. 43, 647–655 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    139.Hinkel, K., Paetzold, F., Nelson, F. & Bockheim, J. Patterns of soil temperature and moisture in the active layer and upper permafrost at Barrow, Alaska: 1993–1999. Glob. Planet. Change 29, 293–309 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    140.Douglas, T. A., Turetsky, M. R. & Koven, C. D. Increased rainfall stimulates permafrost thaw across a variety of Interior Alaskan boreal ecosystems. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 3, 28 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    141.Neumann, R. B. et al. Warming effects of spring rainfall increase methane emissions from thawing permafrost. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 1393–1401 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    142.Aartsma, P., Asplund, J., Odland, A., Reinhardt, S. & Renssen, H. Microclimatic comparison of lichen heaths and shrubs: shrubification generates atmospheric heating but subsurface cooling during the growing season. Biogeosciences 18, 1577–1599 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    143.Fisher, J. P. et al. The influence of vegetation and soil characteristics on active-layer thickness of permafrost soils in boreal forest. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3127–3140 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    144.Van Cleve, K. et al. Taiga ecosystems in interior Alaska. BioScience 33, 39–44 (1983).
    Google Scholar 
    145.Kade, A., Romanovsky, V. & Walker, D. The n-factor of nonsorted circles along a climate gradient in Arctic Alaska. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 17, 279–289 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    146.Atchley, A. L., Coon, E. T., Painter, S. L., Harp, D. R. & Wilson, C. J. Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 5116–5123 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    147.Klene, A. E., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I. & Hinkel, K. M. The n-factor in natural landscapes: variability of air and soil-surface temperatures, Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, USA. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 33, 140–148 (2001).
    Google Scholar 
    148.van Everdingen, R. O. Multi-Language Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms (National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, 2005).149.Iwahana, G. et al. Geocryological characteristics of the upper permafrost in a tundra-forest transition of the Indigirka River Valley, Russia. Polar Sci. 8, 96–113 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    150.Lewkowicz, A. G. & Way, R. G. Extremes of summer climate trigger thousands of thermokarst landslides in a High Arctic environment. Nat. Commun. 10, 1329 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    151.Kanevskiy, M. et al. Degradation and stabilization of ice wedges: implications for assessing risk of thermokarst in northern Alaska. Geomorphology 297, 20–42 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    152.Olefeldt, D. et al. Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes. Nat. Commun. 7, 13043 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    153.Jorgenson, M., Shur, Y. L. & Pullman, E. R. Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02503 (2006).
    Google Scholar 
    154.Stieglitz, M., Déry, S., Romanovsky, V. & Osterkamp, T. The role of snow cover in the warming of arctic permafrost. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1721 (2003).
    Google Scholar 
    155.Anisimov, O. & Zimov, S. Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling. Ambio 50, 2050–2059 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    156.Tei, S. et al. An extreme flood caused by a heavy snowfall over the Indigirka River basin in Northeastern Siberia. Hydrol. Process. 34, 522–537 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    157.Jones, B. M. et al. Recent Arctic tundra fire initiates widespread thermokarst development. Sci. Rep. 5, 15865 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    158.Fraser, R. H. et al. Climate sensitivity of high Arctic permafrost terrain demonstrated by widespread ice-wedge thermokarst on Banks Island. Remote Sens. 10, 954 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    159.Kokelj, S. V., Lantz, T. C., Tunnicliffe, J., Segal, R. & Lacelle, D. Climate-driven thaw of permafrost preserved glacial landscapes, northwestern Canada. Geology 45, 371–374 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    160.Raynolds, M. K. et al. Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 1211–1224 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    161.Yang, M., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., Guo, D. & Wan, G. Permafrost degradation and its environmental effects on the Tibetan Plateau: a review of recent research. Earth Sci. Rev. 103, 31–44 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    162.Payette, S., Delwaide, A., Caccianiga, M. & Beauchemin, M. Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18208 (2004).
    Google Scholar 
    163.French, H. & Shur, Y. The principles of cryostratigraphy. Earth Sci. Rev. 101, 190–206 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    164.Burn, C. R. & Friele, P. Geomorphology, vegetation succession, soil characteristics and permafrost in retrogressive thaw slumps near Mayo, Yukon Territory. Arctic 42, 31–40 (1989).
    Google Scholar 
    165.Walvoord, M. A. & Kurylyk, B. L. Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost — a review. Vadose Zone J. 15, vzj2016-01 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    166.Zona, D. et al. Characterization of the carbon fluxes of a vegetated drained lake basin chronosequence on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1870–1882 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    167.Jorgenson, M. T. & Shur, Y. Evolution of lakes and basins in northern Alaska and discussion of the thaw lake cycle. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 112, F02S17 (2007).
    Google Scholar 
    168.Cray, H. A. & Pollard, W. H. Vegetation recovery patterns following permafrost disturbance in a Low Arctic setting: case study of Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 47, 99–113 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    169.Baltzer, J. L., Veness, T., Chasmer, L. E., Sniderhan, A. E. & Quinton, W. L. Forests on thawing permafrost: fragmentation, edge effects, and net forest loss. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 824–834 (2014).
    Google Scholar 
    170.Scheffer, M., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H. & Chapin, F. S. Thresholds for boreal biome transitions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 21384–21389 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    171.Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Jones, B. M., Romanovsky, V. E. & Boike, J. Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic. Nat. Commun. 9, 5423 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    172.Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time. Ecol. Lett. 15, 164–175 (2012).
    Google Scholar 
    173.Strauss, J. et al. Deep Yedoma permafrost: a synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability. Earth Sci. Rev. 172, 75–86 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    174.Hjort, J. E. A. Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ. 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8 (2022).175.Kumpula, T., Pajunen, A., Kaarlejärvi, E., Forbes, B. C. & Stammler, F. Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 550–562 (2011).
    Google Scholar 
    176.Nitzbon, J. et al. Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate. Nat. Commun. 11, 2201 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    177.Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C. D., Swenson, S. C., Riley, W. J. & Slater, A. Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 094011 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    178.Bintanja, R. & Andry, O. Towards a rain-dominated Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 263–267 (2017).
    Google Scholar 
    179.Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Grant, R. F. & Romanovsky, V. E. Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 024008 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    180.Mikhailov, I. Changes in the soil-plant cover of the high Arctic of Eastern Siberia. Eurasian Soil. Sci. 53, 715–723 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    181.Frost, G. V. et al. Multi-decadal patterns of vegetation succession after tundra fire on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 025003 (2020).
    Google Scholar 
    182.Whitley, M. A. et al. Assessment of LiDAR and spectral techniques for high-resolution mapping of sporadic permafrost on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Remote Sens. 10, 258 (2018).
    Google Scholar  More